The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm
A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.
Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.
The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).
Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.
Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.
Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.
Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Check the Local CONUS or take a walk outside.
Ah that's what that (+1) means. DOH!
Ummm...because your future great-grandchildren will think more highly of you if you don't suceed in totally trashing the planet you left for them, maybe?
Thanks for "keepin it real". I'm going to go discuss some models responsibly with some responsible friends of mine.
ABNT20 KNHC 191743
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 19 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BEFORE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 19 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BEFORE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
Models also showed Hurricane Ike hitting South Florida and moving back into the Atlantic for days as well, to the point that the NHC was even forecasting it.
We all know how that one ended....
The fact of the matter is that models that far in advance are not always trustworthy, even with developed systems.
I'd love for this to be a fish storm, but climatology dictates that we look at the factors at hand. StormW's blog today does a great job of that.
That oughta get'em movin
A LOT of incredibly Obscure stuff and whatnot.
I love this blog, for the very reasons that some people complain bitterly about it.
I never could quite understand the aversion to diversionary posts, when there really is very little to be diverted from....
But then again, I was always a little strange...
Lol. No Sweety, that has to do with me being old. The homeless thing is a long story. ;)
IF it spins up....who really knows?
Yes! Finally!
Possibly.
Do you ever think that this could accurately describe some down and hyper casters?
That is exactly why I always caution people to keep an eye on a storm, even if it appears to be going away from them. Even the less likely scenario is not a 0% chance, and so I will certainly keep an eye on this storm (should it develop) for two reasons, 1 is because it is a hobby of mine, and 2 is because it will be a potential threat to me all the way out here in Texas until dies or tracks east.
Remember, Ike, as did Betsy, actually started to make the northward turn (in close to the same area, to boot) before being deflected and winding up in the GOM.
2
Which models will be discussed?
lol
Multi-flavored ice cream? That's funny coming from a guy named after a song by Céline Dion. (Or is it instead the Congolese soccer player?) ;-)
Looks more like a squashed oval to me...But whatever, it doesn't really matter.
I thought it was fish food?
:0
he changes his opinion like he changes he screennames
Yep. Looks like it's beginning.
nice
but very steamy afterwards
Kate Moss, Cindy Crawford maybe
Do you mean the blog chaos is beginning, or is it the storm?
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