The Atlantic is quiet; Russian heat wave ends; huge 926 mb South Indian Ocean storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2010

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A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots over the region, and water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to the west that will interfere with any development that might occur. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime in the period 3 - 6 days from now. There is an area of disturbed weather south of the Cape Verdes Islands, but there is no obvious organization to the cloud pattern. Wind shear is a hefty 20 - 30 knots in the region, and the disturbance is a 1 - 2 day journey away from reaching a lower shear area where development can occur. Preliminary indications are that if a storm did develop in this region, it would track west-northwest and pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. However, 7-day forecasts of a storm that hasn't even formed yet are not to be trusted.


Figure 2. The cold front that brought an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 lies east of Moscow in the NASA MODIS photo taken at 8:35 UTC August 19, 2010. Smoke from wildfires is visible over a wide swath of Russia east of the front. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 ends
A powerful cold front swept through Russia yesterday and today, finally bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 25°C (77°F) today, which is still 4°C (7°F) above average, but the high temperature since late June. Moscow has seen 62 consecutive days with a high temperature above average, but the latest forecast for Moscow predicts that remarkable string will come to an end Friday, when the high will reach just 17°C (62°F).

Massive 926 mb extratropical storm generating huge waves off Antarctica
One of the most intense extratropical storms in recent years is churning up the waters near the coast of Antarctica in the South Indian Ocean. The powerful storm peaked in intensity yesterday afternoon with a central pressure of 926 mb--the type of pressure typically found in a Category 4 hurricane. Storms this intense form on average once per year, or perhaps less often, according to an email I received from Jeff Callaghan of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Since extratropical storms do not form eyewalls, the winds at the surface from this monster storm probably reached "only" 100 - 120 mph (equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.) The storm is forecast to generate huge waves with a significant wave height of 13 meters (44 feet) today, according to the NOAA Wavewatch III model (Figure 3.) I have flown into an extratropical storm this intense--in 1989, I participated in a field project based in Maine that intercepted a remarkable extratropical storm that "bombed" into a 928 mb low south of the Canadian Maritime provinces. You can read my story of that somewhat harrowing flight here.


Figure 3. Satellite image taken at 8:10 UTC August 19, 2010, showing the intense extratropical cyclone that has weakened to 940 mb in the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Antarctica. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Surface pressure analysis from 18 UTC August 18, 2010, showing a 926 mb low in the South Indian Ocean, just north of Antarctica. Image credit: Jeff Callaghan, Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 5. Predicted wave height from the NOAA Wavewatch III model for 2pm EDT (18 UTC) today, August 19, 2010. Peak wave heights of 13 meters (44 feet) are projected over ocean areas between Antarctica and Australia. Long-period waves (19 seconds between crests) up to 7 meters (22 feet) high are predicted to affect the southwest coast of Australia by Sunday. The waves are predicted to propagate eastwards to New Zealand 8 - 9 days from now, and be a respectable 4 - 5 meters high then.

Jeff Masters

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EATLWVLoop

11N 25.3W
Will this get a floater now?
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2023. IKE
Eastern-PAC firing up...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 20 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES
WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
AL95


...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 25.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 24.1W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 22.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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2020. IKE
Quoting StormW:


Fish.


Wouldn't that be great?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting hurricane556:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008201122
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2010, DB, O, 2010082006, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952010
AL, 95, 2010081912, , BEST, 0, 110N, 236W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010081918, , BEST, 0, 110N, 241W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082000, , BEST, 0, 110N, 247W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082006, , BEST, 0, 110N, 253W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


At last.
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Finally...

AL, 95, 2010082006 110N, 253W, 25, 1008, DB
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2016. IKE
Right on cue...just like the models have been saying.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008201122
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2010, DB, O, 2010082006, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952010
AL, 95, 2010081912, , BEST, 0, 110N, 236W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010081918, , BEST, 0, 110N, 241W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082000, , BEST, 0, 110N, 247W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082006, , BEST, 0, 110N, 253W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Thanks for the compliment Korie.

Now, off to perform analysis.


No problem man. I meant every word. You're my man. You've taught me a great deal about forecasting, which has bettered me in the field. For that, you deserve my respect.
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2012. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Agree, that is what all of the guidance is currently showing but still have to include the possibility that strength/timing of storm/trough may come into play. The human model at TAFB is currently seeing the same thing you are.




That's true....won't argue that.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Good morning,


Jeff's put down the remote and put on his climbing gear.
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2009. scott39
StormW, What degress longitude and lattitude do the models develope the AOI in the eastern Atlantic?
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Quoting IKE:


True...but 5 of 5 show it moving to near 20N and 50-52W in 5 days...and turning more toward the north.

All of these models may be wrong. But these same 5 forecast this to develop, which it appears to be doing.


Agree, that is what all of the guidance is currently showing but still have to include the possibility that strength/timing of storm/trough may come into play. The human model at TAFB is currently seeing the same thing you are.


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Quoting MahFL:
Stormy....your not Westcasting are you ?


Storm doesn't do any type of casting but forecasting. Which entails being objective. You won't find StormW with a bias in his forecasts. Trust me. That's why he's so great, and respected by many, myself included.
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2004. scott39
Quoting StormW:


Yeah...I'm not trying to rag on ya, but when you look at the pattern across the U.S., That's a pretty flat pattern, which is hard to get a trof to dip that far south...that's why the ECMWF in that graphic basically show, no trof...in fact, that's all ridge in the Atlantic. I'm just pointing out what makes meteorological sense, at least to me.
If it misses the first trof, is there another one behind it?
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Models arn't data.
A lesson that needs to be relearned from time to time for some of us.
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1999. MahFL
Stormy....your not Westcasting are you ?
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1998. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


The longer cyclogenesis and a definate movement are delayed timing of the storm/weakness comes into play. Starting to see more of the GFS ensemble members to the left of the operational track. As always a wait and see.




True...but 5 of 5 show it moving to near 20N and 50-52W in 5 days...and turning more toward the north.

All of these models may be wrong. But these same 5 forecast this to develop, which it appears to be doing.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1996. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
warfighter 06z gfs 106 hrs out
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1995. Engine2
Storm - I was a young boy for Gloria but that really devastated alot of areas on Long Island as a minimal hurricane

Lets see the models begin to initialize on the correct CoC this weekend once its declared, I think the models will shift a bit further west
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1994. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
remember models are meant to be used as guidance only and donot depict final outcome in any single event things can and will change
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1992. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:


and although these are "too far out", they have shown consistency in their far out to sea solutions.


Yes they have.

They may all be wrong, but I wouldn't bet my paycheck against 5 for 5.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:


LOL!

GFS also shows a TD/weak TS hitting northern Mexico in a week....similar to the TD that came in around Brownsville. Shows it at 1007 mb's.

Looking good over our area through Sept. 5th on the run.

Oh...TGIF!



And thats a beautiful thing!!

Good morning all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


I don't see any model run that keeps this going west through day 5. All of the models below have it near 20N and about 50-52W in 5-6 days.... CMC...NOGAPS....ECMWF...GFS....UKMET.


The longer cyclogenesis and a definate movement are delayed timing of the storm/weakness comes into play. Starting to see more of the GFS ensemble members to the left of the operational track. As always a wait and see.


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1988. scott39
Quoting IKE:


I don't see any model run that keeps this going west through day 5. All of the models below have it near 20N and about 50-52W in 5-6 days.... CMC...NOGAPS....ECMWF...GFS....UKMET.
I believe we will have a CV storm. Although with the way that Models Have been handeling track and intensity with potential TCs this season, I would be leary of trusting them that far out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1984. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
Prepping myself for being reminded that until a system forms the models are useless. This storm, if it forms, could recurve or be a threat to the US. Right now we have no idea.


That excuse will be written off by Sunday.

Hard to argue against 5 models showing the same basic track in 5 days.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1982. IKE
Imagine the NHC ups the odds on the next TWO. Look for 95L shortly.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1980. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
AOI/XX/XL
MARK
11.47N29.13W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1978. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Good morning, AOI--Westward--For now!


I don't see any model run that keeps this going west through day 5. All of the models below have it near 20N and about 50-52W in 5-6 days.... CMC...NOGAPS....ECMWF...GFS....UKMET.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting StormW:


Still not buying it though. This thing has been at 10N for at least 48 hours, still is.


The longer it sits there, it may not matter if/how strong an east coast trough is as it will not be far enough to the west/north to feel it.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.