95L organizing off coast of Africa; Pakistan's Indus River flood crest nears coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:35 PM GMT on August 20, 2010

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A tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic about 300 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands was designated Invest 95L by NHC this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity is starting to build. The wave is in a moist environment over SSTs that are at near record warmth (28°C). The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. As 95L moves away from Africa, wind shear will decrease, and system will probably develop into a tropical depression by Sunday or Monday. NHC is giving 95L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the disturbed region of weather of the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. The long term steering current forecast from the GFS model indicates an above-average chance of recurvature of storms approaching the U.S. East Coast through the end of August, followed by a near-average chance of recurvature for the first week of September.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave in the western Caribbean approaching Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is generating disorganized thunderstorms, and the wave does not have enough time over water to develop into a tropical depression before moving ashore tonight or Saturday.

The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a another tropical depression of the coast of Africa seven days from now. The GFS model predicts a possible subtropical depression may form off the coast of Virginia 5 - 6 days from now and move northeast towards New England.

Pakistan's monsoon rains ease; Indus river flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen today close to the all-time record for the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) Flood heights at nearly every monitoring station along the Indus have set all-time records this month (records go back to 1947.) Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a quiet phase. Little rain is expected over Pakistan over the next 3 - 4 days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. Flood heights along Pakistan's Indus River during August, 2010. Heavy rains during late July and early August brought record flood height to the upper and middle stretches of the river earlier this month; a wave of flooding progressed downstream, and has now arrived at the monitoring station closest to the coast, Kotri. Image credit: Pakistan Meteorological Department.

The writer of our Climate Change blog, Dr. Ricky Rood, has a sister working in Pakistan, and he is very conversant with the situation there. In his post this week, Pakistan: A Climate Disaster Cast Study, Ricky writes, "We have, here, harsh, brutish reality - a fragile, geopolitically important country where lives, crops, and infrastructure have been washed away. A public health nightmare will follow. We have here a case study of a climate disaster. " In the words of Molly Kinder, a senior policy analyst at the Center for Global Development, who is leading the center's work on a U.S. development strategy for Pakistan, providing aid to Pakistan it is a moral imperative, a humanitarian imperative, and a security imperative.


Figure 3. Image of the Pakistan flood catastrophe of 2010, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Here are some places that Ricky's sister, Elizabeth, has recommended for donations to help out in the humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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2477. nola70119
5:33 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Still an orange hatch and 30% for a possible fish storm....check back tonight. Have a great day.
Member Since: June 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1565
2476. NOLALawyer
3:41 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Quoting nola70119:


Last week you were complaining about all the hype....


That was more like me venting my frustration at the way this seasoon has developed so far, in comparison to what was predicted. However, I am still confident that this season will generate at least a couple of significant landfalling systems.

I pulled a bunch of "smugcasters" off of my ignore list yesterday. Within hours I was able to see that they, with the help of their fearlss leader, are still just as aggravating now as they were 2 months ago.
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 520
2475. NOLALawyer
3:34 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Quoting LADobeLady:


Least we all forget Andrew.


I won't. I lived in Miami Beach in 1992.
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 520
2474. atmoaggie
2:41 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Quoting StormW:


Okay, then your turn to learn me something. How can the anomaly not have an effect?

Take for instance in a NEUTRAL ENSO phase, and say both the EPAC and ATLANTIC are warm. If the anomaly of the Atlantic is warmer, or SST's are slightly warmer than the EPAC, Ma nature is going to see the "difference", and I do believe the more active basin is the Atlantic in that situation.




Spent a bunch of time looking for a good reference, but...most everything I found was about the effect of MJO on SST, not the other way around.

All I can say is that if SST has a significant role in MJO motions, the warmer octet wins. Not the warmer relative to average, unless the result is that the octet ends up being the warmest.

Why would 29 C in the Atlantic be more "attractive" than 30 C in the West Pac? The physics don't work out that way...

But, who knows, I could out of my mind...little SST-driven MJO info out there.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
2473. charlottefl
2:40 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Morning everyone. I think like Dr. M was talking about, Vertical Instability is one of the greatest factors in tropical cyclone genesis. If you don't have instability it's kinda hard to have genesis occur, almost impossible. I think once that comes back within normal limits (climatologically speaking), we'll see this season's activity pick up.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2686
2472. blsealevel
2:36 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Quoting StormW:


I think it's at it's southern most point now...maybe 2-3 deg further south, then it will change to west.




Dats not really a very good setup their Storm!

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
2471. Dakster
2:34 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Quoting itrackstorms:


It's just you.


Funny. I don't remember forecasting anything... Nothing would surpise me at this point. (Well, except JFV growing some brains...)

I do remember reading a lot of respected/career mets and insurance company "expets" predicting a season that hasn't materialized yet. Still could be an overactive season, but I doubt anywhere near 2005 levels. Although history tells me that the pre-season (and even July) forecasts are not that much better than guessing. And I still don't knock them for there missed forecasts and I don't have the knowledge to have a worthwhile weather discussion with them.

This is why I won't predict or forecast anything. I am a weather enthusiast, but do not have any motivation to learn to forecast - although I do enjoy reading them and why they think storms will form and where they will go.

So far, our weater focrecasting ability is about probabilities based on past performance and not certaintities, which is why percentages are given to TS formation, strength, and direction of travel.... Notice all of the major weather season predicting firms, governments, organizations, all have a large range of expected storms or probailities associated with their forecast. There is always room for ma nature to not follow our rules.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10481
2469. stoormfury
2:32 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
SLU there seems to be a missing piece of the puzzle that meterologist cannot fathom in the structure of cyclogenesis. i somewhat suspect that convergence is not as strong as it ought to be even if it appears so on graphics. it could well be the difference in temperature between the upper level and lower level is not much so that little cooling takes place at the upper level. food for thought
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2715
2467. beell
2:30 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
new blog
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16735
2466. IKE
2:29 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Quoting StormW:


Which one? 25/40?


Yeah.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2463. itrackstorms
2:22 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Quoting Dakster:


It is just ma nature messing with us. As soon as we think we've got the weather figured out, she changes the rules.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 152
2462. smuldy
2:22 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff:


New plan. Go to the "My Quick Menu" dropdown at the very top of the window. Select My Photos, then on the right side there is a link to UPLOAD A PORTRAIT (under Tools and Configuration).

These are different than WunderPhotos, and is where you need to load them to use as avatars.

Once an image is uploaded in this section, follow directions as described earlier.

Good luck.
hmm, tried and same page as the button click on my posts, no rec of my upload and no batch edit option. oh well, maybe i need to be a paid member maybe its a win 7 firewall issue with this site or maybe IE will work, either way thank you for the pointers I'm sure it will help un-spare everyone my ugly mug eventually lol as for now it is like 3 hours past my bedtime so im crashing out for now. thanks again and have a good day everyone will check back in on 95L in 6-8 hours
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
2461. blsealevel
2:22 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
2460. Dakster
2:21 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Quoting SLU:
If 95L struggles to develop like Colin did, especially since there has been more than 10 - 15 consecutive days of solid model support for it to become a major system, then it would definitely mean that there's something that's not understood which is keeping the season from ramping up. In late August, you pretty much expect a system like 95L with mainly enhancing conditions in its vicinity to become a strong system.


It is just ma nature messing with us. As soon as we think we've got the weather figured out, she changes the rules.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10481
2459. IKE
2:21 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
ULL appears to be getting closer...Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2454. SLU
2:16 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
If 95L struggles to develop like Colin did, especially since there has been more than 10 - 15 consecutive days of solid model support for it to become a major system, then it would definitely mean that there's something that's not understood which is keeping the season from ramping up. In late August, you pretty much expect a system like 95L with mainly enhancing conditions in its vicinity to become a strong system.


Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5268
2452. CybrTeddy
2:13 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Quoting duajones78413:
Did 95 move south overnight?


Appears so yes.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24200
2451. duajones78413
2:12 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Did 95 move south overnight?
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 287
2450. CybrTeddy
2:12 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Quoting IKE:


SHEAR (KT) 14 13 12 14 17 14 12 6 11 12 10 10 6


Not the best environment for intensification, but enough to allow slow organization.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24200
2448. charlestonscnanny
2:10 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Quoting StormW:
Looks like all of the students left the building.

Not me! Good morning everyone. Can't add much to the lessons, but I sure am learning.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 107
2447. raggpr
2:09 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
From this shortwave loop you can see that the center of 95L is around 11.5 N 29W.

Link
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 245
2445. smuldy
2:09 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff:


Hard I know. Click on the pic you want out of your photos.

You will see it (and any others in the same series) down the screen a bit, and under there will be BATCH EDIT SERIES (something like that).

Click BATCH EDIT SERIES and now they will be on another screen where you can ADD/EDIT DETAILS.

Click that on the photo you want. Now to the right some more options will diplay where you can MAKE THIS MY PRIMARY PORTRAIT.

Click that and Apply. Once that stops thinking, scroll down and SEND TO APPROVAL QUEUE.
ya, i still get "Sorry, you have no WunderPhotos online." like it is a ghost upload
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
2443. wxman69
2:06 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
You have to believe there are storms to come for the remainder of the season, however, things obviously haven't worked out as "planned or reasoned" so far this season. NOAA and all the other various forecasting agencies, private and the like have gone out of their way to say how this isn't unusual and the season will still be way above average.. in my eyes to quell all the questions about where are the storms.. ok, so it's been a "typical" or "average" season.. but that's already off the mark from the forecasts. And with there being a global lack of storms this year (the past few actually), it's obvious other factors are involved that aren't very well understood. We've got all the "perfect" conditions for development, and yet.. nothing can seem to get going or sustain itself. All the "theories" are starting to come out.. including of course climate change, but this could be a head-scratcher season that will be studied for months/years to come. Not writing off the season yet, but even 95L is struggling, when the models last weekend had this a storm a good 2-3 days ago. This could be a season to remember, but not for the reasons originally forecast.
Member Since: May 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 4
2439. IKE
2:04 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Quoting katrinakat5:
ike with the high building there will be little or no shear in the next 12-18 hours...all systems are go for danielle to be a very mean woman..


SHEAR (KT) 14 13 12 14 17 14 12 6 11 12 10 10 6
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2437. eyesontheweather
2:03 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Quoting StormW:


Sure...easy one...the models jumped on a WNW to almost NW motion right away, and haven't really changed...thing has been moving mainly west since it got close to the African coast 3-4 days ago. Still moving west.
So that keeps the forcast track west. does it still have an expected poleward curve before interfering with any land? Again Thank You Storm
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
2435. raggpr
2:03 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
does anyone knows why NHC havent given 95L Floater its name?
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 245
2434. IKE
2:02 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Looking at the shear that's increasing all around 95L, I think I see why the ECMWF and NOGAPS have backed off on intensity with 95L...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2433. atmoaggie
2:00 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Quoting StormW:


My bad...thought it was the anomaly. However, we can't deny 2 facts....the trend is cooling out there, and the MJO hasn't been in Octant 4 all season:

True. Why?
(It really isn't run by the anomaly...)

Before someone dives off the LaNina cliff, even 1998, with similar ENSO transitions, did have a season. A somewhat reduced season, in number, but a season nonetheless:
1998:
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
2432. kmanislander
2:00 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
I have a few things to do so will head off now.

Back later
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
2430. victoria780
2:00 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Quoting StormW:


Yes sir.
I would tend to agree with you,a s pattern developed earlier which shows a anticyclone near or overhead the system,also the Hurricane circle should be further to the left which it shows.Just a opinion.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 347
2428. kmanislander
1:59 PM GMT on August 21, 2010
Quoting katrinakat5:
kman ithink its a tropical depression by tomorrow and then RAPID INTENSIFICATION..i expect it to be a major hurricane by the time it gets to 50-55 west...


Tomorrow is possible. It all depends how much it can do today. AS for RI, well that is a harder call to make.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.