95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.
Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.
Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.
Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.
Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:
Doctors Without Borders
The International Red Cross
MERLIN medical relief charity
The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Thanks for the info. I am long time lurker, haven't posted much here.It does seem to be a strange season this year though.
there isnt one yet, the 5pm advisory will be out soon
relax this isn't some sort of government conspiracy
MARK
11.13N/31.88W
it not even out yet
Lost me with two references to ignorance in the first couple of lines.
Thats funny Destin Jeff.
Those refs were one of the main reasons I read further.
I felt as if the words were speaking to me,
Or is that about me.
Oh well interesting refresher.
996
WHXX01 KWBC 211954
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1954 UTC SAT AUG 21 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX (AL062010) 20100821 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100821 1800 100822 0600 100822 1800 100823 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.8N 31.8W 11.1N 32.5W 12.0N 33.3W 13.7N 35.0W
BAMD 10.8N 31.8W 10.9N 33.5W 10.9N 35.1W 11.0N 36.8W
BAMM 10.8N 31.8W 11.2N 32.8W 12.0N 34.0W 13.1N 35.8W
LBAR 10.8N 31.8W 11.2N 33.8W 11.9N 36.7W 12.4N 39.9W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 41KTS 51KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 41KTS 51KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100823 1800 100824 1800 100825 1800 100826 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 38.2W 20.2N 46.6W 21.7N 53.8W 21.1N 56.6W
BAMD 11.6N 38.5W 14.3N 42.4W 19.5N 46.3W 25.7N 47.7W
BAMM 15.0N 38.5W 19.4N 45.7W 22.4N 52.0W 23.1N 55.0W
LBAR 13.2N 43.6W 14.2N 50.2W 15.8N 53.6W 25.2N 54.4W
SHIP 63KTS 80KTS 84KTS 86KTS
DSHP 63KTS 80KTS 84KTS 86KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 31.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 30.3W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 29.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
no we have TD 6 turst me
Yes we do. And someone did post the link to that too. See post 891.
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest95
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
Anal retentive day maybe?
Maybe I shouldn't have used such harsh wording. Will you accept my apologies? I'm just so tired of being patient with everybody when it seems most aren't willing to learn.
Again, I'm sorry, and I'll try and not jump the gun in the future. I suppose I was "generalizing", one could say.
We do have it, a Tropical Met I follow on Twitter just posted that.
Don't jump the gun
yes we do we do it have TD 6
Obama said there were 57 states.
lol
Scroll down to the "invest_RENUMBER" files and you'll see the renumbering for 95L to 06L. Also if you scroll down further past those RENUMBER files and click on "invest_al952010.invest" you'll see the last line says:
AL, 95, 2010082118, , BEST, 0, 108N, 318W, 25, 1008, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 300, 75, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
ok
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
3:00 AM JST August 22 2010
===============================
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 16.0N 116.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.
how evere i think the nhc will ues 30kt then 25kt
Surprised it organized so quickly.
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al952010_al062010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008211952
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 06, 2010, DB, O, 2010082006, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, AL062010
AL, 06, 2010081912, , BEST, 0, 110N, 236W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2010081918, , BEST, 0, 110N, 241W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2010082000, , BEST, 0, 110N, 247W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2010082006, , BEST, 0, 110N, 253W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 06, 2010082012, , BEST, 0, 110N, 260W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 06, 2010082018, , BEST, 0, 104N, 290W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 06, 2010082100, , BEST, 0, 104N, 296W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 06, 2010082106, , BEST, 0, 105N, 303W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 250, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 06, 2010082112, , BEST, 0, 106N, 310W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 300, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 06, 2010082118, , BEST, 0, 108N, 318W, 25, 1008, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 300, 75, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
000
WTNT31 KNHC 212030
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010
...A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 32.1W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
TOMORROW...AND A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
ouch
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
TOMORROW...AND A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.
Well if this storm ends up being large enough.
That increases the odds of some bad weather for Bermuda.
Well large late enough.
Speaking of that are there ever any hints during early formation as to how large a system might become?
They might, the ATCF tcweb folder is preliminary data. In fact right before they renumbered it, the last line put it at 30 kts, but they have since changed it back to 25 knots.
And this is a little ahead of the gun. Regardless where this goes...but do you guys think that the sheer size of nu-TD6 will make it more difficult to maintain a Major status once/if it gets there, or will the abnormally high SSTs actually help it along? I'm just curious on peoples opinions on that.
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 21.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 24.5N 55.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
27....
Time to start filling the bathtub !!!!!
Look at the NHC site, its already up.
Viewing: 901 - 951
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