95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.
Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.
Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.
Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.
Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:
Doctors Without Borders
The International Red Cross
MERLIN medical relief charity
The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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warfighter gfs 00z
RUN COMPLETE
There's almost no chance of TD6 passing under the 20/60 benchmark.
Frances was further south,
Yeah, just noticed that.. but still, similar in ways.
The last two I would consider south of Bermuda, but Juan and 1935 are what I was curious about.
thanks for the info!
GFS scrapes New England
NOGAPS heads towards the East Coast
*Waiting on the 00Z EURO and BAMM suits.
I wonder how the GFS ensembles will look later...
FZNT02 KNHC 220300
HSFAT2
HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC SUN AUG 22 2010
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
SECURITE
ATLANTIC BETWEEN 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC SUN AUG 22.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC MON AUG 23.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE AUG 24.
.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX AT 11.3N 32.6W 1008 MB AT 0300 UTC AUG
22 MOVING W-NW OR 290 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30
GUSTS 40 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 12.9N 36.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND 40 GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN
80 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 50 NM SW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER
IN AREAS OF STORM FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 14.7N 41.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND 60 GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN
100 NM NW AND SE QUADRANTS...110 NM NE QUADRANT AND 70 NM SW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER 120 NM N AND 90 NM S
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 16 FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NEAR 18.0N 47.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NEAR 21.5N 51.5W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE NEAR 25.0N 55.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT.
.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.ATLC FROM 12N TO 18N E OF 38W NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
S OF 12N E OF 40W SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...FROM 08N TO 22N
E OF 40W WINDS TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...OVER FORECAST
WATERS WITHIN 360 NM N AND 180 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER WINDS
TO 33 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 23N E OF 50W
NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.CARIBBEAN S OF 18N W OF 85W E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.GULF OF MEXICO S OF 23N W OF 90W E TO SE WINDS 20 KT.
SEAS TO 8 FT.
.18 HOUR FORECAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.
concur...
Look at what follows too.
philliesrock .ECMWF 00z or 12z ???
0z: 19N 51W
12z: 24N 48W
Link?
Yep
It's a pay site so I can't post the live 6-hourly images. I will provide you with this, though:
Link
atcf says still a TD, 11.8N too
I think you'd better start stocking up then. It will be at 20n way before reaching 60w
atcf says TD 9-E is also still a TD
I wasn't doing that. I had the 84 hour 0z open in one tab, and the 96 hour 12z open in another tab. But now, the differences in the runs are so massive that I closed my 12z tab for good. :P
ECMWF west
I don't even see a weakness on that image until you reach the midwestern USA.
Viewing: 2551 - 2601
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