95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.
Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.
Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.
Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.
Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:
Doctors Without Borders
The International Red Cross
MERLIN medical relief charity
The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Morning surfmom.
From down under....Link
Wow! Now I'm wide awake... ;-)
So now I know why I'm tired
The 5 a.m. NHC Discussion mentions a 'model spread.'
...RECENT CENTER FIXES ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN A LACK OF MICROWAVE DATA BUT YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION OF 295/08...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE.
A DEEP LAYER EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N41W THAT IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND CAUSE A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 45-50W IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.
THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED AS A LARGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW A BIT MORE DIVERGENT BUT SHOWS THE DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES INTO THE WEAKNESS.
THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SLOWED AT LATER FORECAST TIMES AS A RESULT OF A SLOWER TREND IN THE GUIDANCE AND INCREASING MODEL SPREAD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0900Z 12.1N 33.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 12.6N 34.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 13.4N 36.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 14.4N 39.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 15.5N 42.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 25/0600Z 18.5N 47.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 26/0600Z 22.0N 52.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 27/0600Z 24.5N 55.0W 90 KT
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Thanks, Storm, for the excellent (as always) synopsis. Have a nice day...
BBL, after I complete a List Of Things, issued by a Higher Authority...
Check out the nice storm off of Captiva. Live.
Almost a spout forming
NHC has it near 25N and 55W in a few days...well east and north of the islands. From everything I've read and seen it looks like a threat to Bermuda.
Nice. I was thinking of running to the beach for a bit of spout-watching this morning; the setup seems almost perfect...
May need a bit more yet.
Guess we are, Jeff...
pretty much all the way to the islands it's a westward flow..East Coast stay alert.
Click for larger image:
I remember all too well!!!
AL 06 2010082212 BEST 0 122N 339W 30 1007 TD
Edit: Add
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 33.9W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 32.3W DIRM12 = 308DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 31.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 275NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
thats where I have to go today!!! ughh
75kt by 72... 77 by 96... 77 by 120.
Thank you Storm!
(expect the bans to start coming fast and furious) although looks like the West End Guy is still sleeping...
CVMonsoonTrough
Have a Wunderful day EveryWun.
Thanks for making me lol before even finishing first a.m. coffee. You are most amusing hypervigilante on this blog.
Thanks for the great update! I live in Deerfield Beach and will stay a little more alert since it looks like it isn't recurving as much as the original models were showing.
I have a coupla questions. Yep, they're weather related. If I post them will anyone try to answer them for me?
If I was a fish I would be offended!
Yeah, maybe. Contrarians, on the other hand, are in deep, pathological denial. As Freud said: "denial is a state in which a person is faced with a fact that is too uncomfortable to accept and rejects it instead, insisting that it is not true despite what may be overwhelming evidence." And they employ all three prongs of Freud's denial approach:
#1: simple denial - deny the reality of the unpleasant fact altogether.
#2: minimisation - admit the fact but deny its seriousness (a combination of denial and rationalisation).
#3: projection - admit both the fact and seriousness but deny responsibility.
Definitely sounds like every Contrarian I've ever known... :-)
yes we know you have a fish fetish!!!
rotmfflmfao
Invest95L becomes TropicalDepressionSix
- Date - - - Time - - - - - Location - - Windspeed - Pressure
21Aug - 06pmGMT - 10.8n31.8w - - 25knots . . . . 1008mb - NHC-ATCF
21Aug - 09pmGMT - 11.0n32.1w - - 30mph . . . . . 1008mb - NHC.Adv.1
22Aug - 12amGMT - 11.2n32.3w - - 25knots . . . . 1008mb - NHC-ATCF
22Aug - 03amGMT - 11.3n32.6w - - 35mph . . . . . 1008mb - NHC.Adv.2
22Aug - 06amGMT - 11.8n33.0w - - 30knots . . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF
22Aug - 09amGMT - 12.1n33.4w - - 35mph . . . . . 1007mb - NHC.Adv.3
22Aug - 12pmGMT - 12.2n33.9w - - 30knots . . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF
Copy&paste 11.2n32.3w-11.3n32.6w, 11.3n32.6w-11.8n33.0w, 11.8n33.0w-12.1n33.4w, 12.1n33.4w-12.2n33.9w, hex, bda, sid, tuv into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours
TD6's heading has turned westward from 7.7degrees west of Northwest to 11degrees west of WestNorthWest.
Honestly I think we have Danielle... the NHC will prolly agree soon
Maybe not quite so little, though (and it's hard to see just how Danielle will possibly recurve as much and as quickly as forecast):
Click for larger image:
LOL...no one answered you. I'll try...
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