Tropical Depression Six arrives
Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.
Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.
Jeff Masters
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It just formed into a tropical storm. A few hours ago in fact. It isn't gonna jump like that in so little time, trust me =P
Where is the Question in this post?
EDIT: And the sarcasim is obvious with the "I'm gonna board up" part.
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.1 °F
Wind Speed (WSPD): 18.1 kts
Wind Direction (WDIR):
added two new models to model page
Life.
Esp when we track and discuss the Current .
We all have feelings,were all not PHD's.
I made a mistake with Ike yesterday myself,,and I regret it.
But I man up and apologize and move on.
No one wants disaster or calamity. if you do,,odds r your never seen,felt,,nor smelled it.
Lets all be a lil xtra patient this week as we will likely have a Major to watch,,and also,,come the weekend,a significant Anniversary for a Event 5 years ago along the Gulf Coast.
Yeah, Timing, sometime in the next 7 to 20 days, yepper! LOL.
Which buoy?
He never said he was asking a question
I can see yer T-Showers tops,,and Im a rooting for it to make it here.
Been torrid today,..simply torrid.
HURRICANE KATRINA
I see
I always thought it was Aquak like "really crazy lady"
The question was posted actually yesterday. And it was as simple as the one I posted after. It's why the crutch like clutching to the GFS model? Why aren't we simply trying to use that as a basis, use our eyes, and use the steering currents, what the Lows actually are and where to try and give the best possible path to forecast the track of the storm? Is it just me or is that why weather forecasting has gone downhill in the last twenty years. We have this marvelous new technology and we rely on it so much to tell us it's not raining outside that we don't turn to look at the water droplets hitting our windows.
No pressure change as of most recent report. One buoy does not a hurricane make.
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI
If I was in Vegas, I'd be careful about betting on that statement. There is no outflow east of center, this is not the best brething environment for a system to go from minimal tropical storm to hurricane in less than a day. Its tough for Danielle to do that now.
Peak Intensity:
He said "...my questions are valid ones."
And Ryuujin if you have never heard people use the term poof here you are obviously new here. Not Ike's term and used by many.
Here's one at 12N and 38W with winds from the NNW...Link
Come on, you get it right?
A quack is someone who offers medical treatment or advice (ie weather) without the qualifications to do so.
You were teasing?!?
And to think, I ran out and bought a D-cell battery and a 1/2 liter bottle of Aquifina... I was duped. Oh well, Guess these supplies will keep. ;-)
I am new here, I've stated that repeatedly, just as I've stated my questions to the blog repeatedly. It's simply obvious that some people either aren't comfortable debating them, or cannot find them.
Maybe you should change your handle to waterdog so people would understand?
I like how the convective bursts in danielle are off the chart.... Does appear to be strengthening at the moment.
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