Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting canehater1:
I know Cantore was on Bermuda for a close call a couple years back...
To bad Cantore coudn't go a few miles south of the border for Alex.
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Where's the Forecast Discussion for 11p.m EDT?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah and jeez, a banned person because of smileys and funny pictures, everyone here is so bitter and cranky.
If he were insulting someone then yeah, ban the person, but just lightening the mood of the blog when there is no storm even remotely close to landfall is ok.

Seriously this blog has lost its shine in the past 2 years.
Might have been for taking up too much band-with with his animations. I don't gripe about it very often but for those of us stuck with primitive connections it does make a difference. Even some of the avitars can slow things down.
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DestinDome..

Thats b/c the actual hasnt made it to the gulf yet.. But it has been pumping some good storms from this front that has been coming down.. It is expected to be in the gulf but unknown if the L will develop at the moment.. But expect some more T'storms tomorrow near noon til the eveningish..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
Quoting Tazmanian:



dont no


Sounded like you had a name in mind. Bords writing style is pretty obvious, and he has taken previous bans just fine. Waits his 24 hrs.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
its at Location: 14.2°N 35.9°W
this strom been going move north then west last 12 hours.
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2076. pottery
Quoting DDR:
Pottery,Im just curious whats the highest rainfall you've ever recorded in a month's time?

August 99.
486mm, just under 19".
Thought I was going to float away...
NEVER got as much as you have in a month!
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Quoting PcolaDan:
Taz, what name do you think Bord is using now? Not CAPTAINOFTHESEAS???



dont no
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Quoting will45:


im not ya love but thanks for helping lol



ok
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Taz, what name do you think Bord is using now? Not CAPTAINOFTHESEAS???
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting PcolaDan:


What's nice is, between all the banter, StormW and pipelines have had a very good discussion going. They didn't let the humor stop them, or get upset about it for "interfering" with a weather blog. Well done, has been a pleasant evening, even with Bord getting banned. LOL
tolerance is so beautiful. I love all opinions
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2071. will45
Quoting Tazmanian:



yup that what where do my love


im not ya love but thanks for helping lol
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2070. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
silly CAPTAINOFTHESEA

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2069. xcool
DANIELLE move wnw
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2068. DDR
Quoting pottery:

Still sounds active from here!
Still have not been able to access the radar....... sigh!

Hurry up!
your missing all the action,its really cool tho
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seems to me captainoftheseas is jfv so please "!" "ignore user" and move on
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2066. JRRP
Quoting Relix:
So it's moving west now. 290 maybe

that is wnw
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2064. JLPR2
Quoting MississippiWx:
That's pretty amazing. Bordanaro gets banned, but the admin won't ban JFV when he CONSTANTLY circumvents a ban. They let him say controversial things over and over again, only removing his comments, instead of banning.


Yeah and jeez, a banned person because of smileys and funny pictures, everyone here is so bitter and cranky.
If he were insulting someone then yeah, ban the person, but just lightening the mood of the blog when there is no storm even remotely close to landfall is ok.

Seriously this blog has lost its shine in the past 2 years.
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AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.9 WEST. DANIELLE
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND DANIELLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
Quoting ddbweatherking:
I have a question. Does the weather channel send people outside the country for coverage? For example, if Danielle was a hurricane heading for Bermuda, would they send some people over there for coverage of Danielle? Thanks.


pretty sure they have for Bermuda
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Quoting NewBdoBdo:
You guys are killing me here! I just love the banter. Better than anything TV has to offer.
Thank you all for the info and the laughter.


What's nice is, between all the banter, StormW and pipelines have had a very good discussion going. They didn't let the humor stop them, or get upset about it for "interfering" with a weather blog. Well done, has been a pleasant evening, even with Bord getting banned. LOL
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
2058. will45
2044. CAPTAINOFTHESEAS 10:46 PM EDT on August 22, 2010

all right guys flag and report please
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Quoting Asta:
re: 1728. Tazmanian 1
this is the 18z GFS
look what i see hiting the gulf coast in 312hrs


Would not surprise me.. The week after the Katrina anniversary.. "peccable" timing...
Seems about right. 13 days out and a storm hitting fl. Labor day weekend.
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2056. DDR
Pottery,Im just curious whats the highest rainfall you've ever recorded in a month's time?
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Jason has had this storm pegged from jump, he's been calling fish since it was a MCC over Africa, and he will likely be proven right.
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Quoting ddbweatherking:
I have a question. Does the weather channel send people outside the country for coverage? For example, if Danielle was a hurricane heading for Bermuda, would they send some people over there for coverage of Danielle? Thanks.
I know Cantore was on Bermuda for a close call a couple years back...
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Can't wait for the new discussion... should be out any second
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Quoting FLPandhandleJG:
DestinDome..

Well Idk just yet, but I would say keep an eye on it for a few days.. It could or not, but wouldnt write it off.. But as for now, theres a lot of moisture, of course GOM is a bath tub for tropical development, and I think the shear would be down.. if that extd5 can manage to maintain one center, it could get interesting.. I'm not expert but JMO..
From the radar imagery it looks suspect.
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2050. pottery
Quoting DDR:
Hi pottery
Rumbling to the east..but radar shows the storms dying out.

Still sounds active from here!
Still have not been able to access the radar....... sigh!
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2049. xcool
jason2010xxxx yep sea fish
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
That's pretty amazing. Bordanaro gets banned, but the admin won't ban JFV when he CONSTANTLY circumvents a ban. They let him say controversial things over and over again, only removing his comments, instead of banning.
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They had reporters there for Fabian
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more DANIELLE STRENGTHENS move north she will go and be a fish storm by 100%
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DestinDome..

Well Idk just yet, but I would say keep an eye on it for a few days.. It could or not, but wouldnt write it off.. But as for now, theres a lot of moisture, of course GOM is a bath tub for tropical development, and I think the shear would be down.. if that extd5 can manage to maintain one center, it could get interesting.. I'm not expert but JMO..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
Evening all.

I am going to give my thoughts on Danielle in a short and to the point manner.

I am not wishcasting, downcasting, westcasting, curvecasting, etc. this system.

I am going to say that WNW movement can be expected, with intensification to hurricane strength likely.

That is for the next 48-72 hours. Beyond this, I am not ready to forecast.

"Ladies and gentlemen, fasten your seatbelts..."

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I have a question. Does the weather channel send people outside the country for coverage? For example, if Danielle was a hurricane heading for Bermuda, would they send some people over there for coverage of Danielle? Thanks.
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How many of you agree with Jason? Is this going to be a fish storm? Just curious, he seems so sure.

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2035. pottery
Quoting DDR:
Good night
Rumbles and flashes around the island(Trinidad) tonight,heavy rains expected during the up coming week.
30+ inches have fallen at my location over the last 22 days.

Looks to be just off the north coast, Toco area? The flashes.
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2034. P451
Quoting bappit:

I think pipelines has a point with the first statement: "The steering maps are plenty accurate, the issue lies with the the interpretation of the data." If the beta effect is real--I do think it is--then a storm would not travel in the same direction as the surrounding air flow. That is what the beta effect is. Part of the BAM model name I believe.

Beta and Advection Model (BAM)

The Beta and Advection Model (BAM) refers to a class of simple trajectory models that utilize vertically averaged horizontal winds from the GFS to compute TC trajectories. These trajectories include a correction term to account for the impact of the earth.s rotation. The BAM is based upon the concept of a simple relationship between storm intensity/depth and steering levels. Strong cyclones typically extend through the entire depth of the troposphere and are steered by deeper layer-average winds, while weaker cyclones are steered by shallower layer-average winds. The BAM is run in three versions corresponding to the different depths used in the trajectory calculation: BAM shallow (850-700 mb), BAM medium (850-400 mb), and BAM deep (850-200 mb), known as BAMS, BAMM and BAMD, respectively. The performance of the BAM is strongly dependent on the dynamical input from the GFS. A divergence of the three versions of the BAM indicates varying steering flow within the parent GFS model. Hence, spread among the three versions of the BAM also serves as a rough estimate of the vertical shear as well as the complexity and uncertainty in the track forecast.


Thank you for that. Just cleared up a slew of questions of mine.

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what did bordonaro post to get ban
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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