Tropical Depression Six arrives
Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.
Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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- Date - - - Time - - - - - Location - - Windspeed - Pressure
22Aug - 03amGMT - 11.3n32.6w - - 35mph . . . . . 1008mb - NHC.Adv.2
22Aug - 06amGMT - 11.7n33.0w - - 30knots . . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF *was11.8n*
22Aug - 09amGMT - 12.1n33.4w - - 35mph . . . . . 1007mb - NHC.Adv.3
22Aug - 12pmGMT - 12.2n33.9w - - 30knots . . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF
22Aug - 03pmGMT - 12.7n34.1w - - 35mph . . . . . 1007mb - NHC.Adv.4
22Aug - 06pmGMT - 13.2n34.6w - - 30knots . . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF
*before NHC reevaluated&altered TD6's path*
22Aug - 09pmGMT - 13.4n35.1w - - 40mph . . . . . 1005mb - NHC.Adv.5
23Aug - 12amGMT - 14.0n35.3w - - 40knots . . . . 1003mb - NHC-ATCF
23Aug - 03amGMT - 14.2n35.9w - - 50mph . . . . . 1000mb - NHC.Adv.6
Copy&paste 12.7n34.1w-13.2n34.6w, 13.2n34.6w-13.4n35.1w, 13.4n35.1w-14.0n35.3w, 14.0n35.3w-14.2n35.9w, hex, bda, sid into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.
those rooms are scheduled to be shut down
You got a point there, I remember when I had Dialup, a nightmare I tell you! XD
But the weather maps animations actually take longer on mine to load.
I'm still annoyed to see Bord banned and the JFV fans still around. :\
Strong storms,where are you located on that map?
2010 Hurricane Season ACE So Far
1. Alex - 6.78 3 Bonnie 0.37
2. Colin - 1.95
3. Bonnie - 0.37
4. Danielle - 0.33
Total: 9.42
yes
what does that mean?
Nope, fairly straightford and simple though.
Getting a little breeze here now.
Must be from the Mayaro one.
No rain here at all today as yet. Plenty west and south of here with loads of lightening.
LOL...You're not on my ignore list. I read your comment, but I forgot to go back and comment on it. Yes, he might be doing that every time, but I doubt it. Trolls won't take away from themselves to make everyone else miserable. If it's easy, that's when they cause misery. All he has to do is create a new email account every single time he gets banned on another handle.
Houma La
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANK (EP092010)
3:00 AM UTC August 23 2010
================================
SUBJECT: "FRANK" Maintains Its Strength
At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Frank (1000 hPa) located at 14.0N 96.8W or 105 NM south of Puerto Angel, Mexico has sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.
Gale Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 14.6N 99.5W - 65 knots (SVR Tropical Cyclone - SSHS 1)
48 HRS: 15.7N 102.2W - 75 knots (SVR Tropical Cyclone - SSHS 1)
72 HRS: 16.7N 104.6W - 75 knots (SVR Tropical Cyclone - SSHS 1)
Tropical Cyclone Warnings/Watches
====================================
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Mexico from Puerto Angel westward to Tecpan de Galeana
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Mexico from Tecpan de Galeana westward to Lazaro Cardenas
Agreed, the - and + and the auto remove features just don't seem to cut it since not only the good bloggers get to use them. :\
Well, enough of that, back to exploding Danielle. :D
WTNT41 KNHC 230300
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 22 2010
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF DANIELLE...WHICH DEVELOPED AROUND
1900 UTC...HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH CLOUD TOPS
AS COLD AS -90 C.
That's -130 F, BRRRRRRR
ok all read this part from 11pm
DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 315/11. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN DANIELLE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DEVELOPS. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
nice anticyclone
True dat! Dr. Masters would probably be a millionaire. :-)
p.s. Admin Notice: When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.
p.s.s. particularly with a hurricane forming.
Agreed.
Most likely
Its stalling and fizzling out though
Aye man how about mosquitos,been a while since i got btten,you were right about the dengue outbreak.
To me, the easterly shear isn't effecting Danielle that much.
Don't want to have one of your comments removed again? LOL.
Vorticity looks great with Danielle. It's all focused on the center now, instead of fighting with that disturbance to the northeast, like earlier.
Ok
Trinidad Here,pottery as well
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