Tropical Depression Six arrives
Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.
Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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the anticyclone above her is helping control the shear i think
Supposed to go towards S Texas after getting us wet here after isnt suposed to form anything
just rain and lightning
** no jason I am not saying it is a fish I am wishing (big difference)!!
a rare white spot (a very cold cloud top reading)
Eh, the anticyclone isn't directly over Danielle. It is actually off to the north and east, helping to shear the system from the east. The other cause of the easterly shear is the African Easterly Jet.
I wont hold it against you if Danielle causes havoc
Very few mossies here.
Plenty bats flying around, eating them up.
Not hearing too much about the dengue recently.
Chaguanas had about 45 cases confirmed last week or so ago.
2103 will45 "those rooms are scheduled to be shut down"
Bad idea to the extent that a significant portion of the violations of Community Standards taking place in chat aren't occurring on the blog. Certainly wouldn't want those violations to migrate over into here because chat is no longer available.
While I tend to agree to a point. One cannot be so darned sure, with so much time and ocean out in front. Notice the ridge, trough, ridge with IKE? Same set up down the line, ridges won the battle with IKE, Danielle is yet to be determined. And so far out, anyone who is 100% confident doesn't know much about the tropics.
I hope all storms are fishes.. :P
ahhhh 101 thanks for the bit of fresh air as I am holding my breath on this one... :/
last image i saw it looked pretty close to overhead
Slight chance at this time of Danielle hitting Bermuda. No need to worry.
+100000, well said
Well, not so uncommon to share a name with a hurricane. My nephew is Andrew, I have an Aunt Camille, my brother is David, one of my clients is Bonnie...and I have a step-sister named Danielle. NBD...
pointed right at Bermuda
Thats good,maybe a sign its slowing down..
The bats are eating everything,eating our mangoes,say what everything got to eat to live.I'm out ttyl.
While the center of Danielle is not directly in the middle of the ball of convection, it's pretty close. Notice the center of the upper high...Where do you see it?
Unless you live in Bermuda :)
I do too as far as the bad ones but a small tropical is cool I love storms that cause no damage or harm but yes the bad ones can go to the fish :)
That is a good example.. Its too early to say what it will do but we all rather it be a fish storm though..
Agreed, Jason seems to follow the crowd more than anything
EXACTLY...thannnnk you!
Night all. Danielle is up and running fo sho.
yea i see it on that one getting close tho
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