Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


I use IKE as an example because Broward EOC was fully activated on high alert and briefing the public on near future EVAC orders due to CAT 4 IKE's arrival, oops.

Quoting Halyn:
Would someone please post a pic of her area so she can see what is happening ?

Quoting Halyn:
Would someone please post a pic of her area so she can see what is happening ?

Quoting MississippiWx:
I'm out, everyone. Don't let the GFS put Danielle on our doorstep next week. Night.

Quoting crashingwaves:



I agree here, no one knows for sure what's going to happen down the road. Even jeff Masters quoted as saying "It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. So nothing is certain at this point, I've seen the models predict this and that, only to see a storm barreling down on us. I say wait & see if the 2 troughs will steer Danielle out to sea.jmo

Quoting truecajun:
seiously. the north winds are literally howling. the cat is freaking out. of course, the local channels aren't telling me anyhting.

Quoting KoritheMan:
For those interested, I just wrote a blog on Danielle.

Quoting Neapolitan:


Well, what is BR? Boca Raton? Baton Rouge? Brazil? Banana Republic?

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Looks like a gust front developed out ahead of the storm complex, straight line winds.

Quoting cirrocumulus:
It seems the center of Danielle may relocate to the southeast. It is still in the early stages.

Quoting txsweetpea:

It is NOT impossible for this to go further west ...I agree with you and there have been alot of storm tracks that have. I do realize that it all depends all depends onthe strength of Danielle and the troughs /ridging. If the troughs/ridging dont move according to planned this could play an important role also.

Quoting LADobeLady:


The winds are ripping, more from this that we got from TD5 and XTD5

Quoting truecajun:


where are you? the howling finally stopped here. i'm in brusly (west baton rouge)

Quoting atmoaggie:

Quoting errantlythought:


There's nothing blocking it from continuing west, AFAIK. The poleward movement predicted is, as you said, because of troughs.

That doesn't mean that Danielle CANT go west, it simply means that the more probable outcome will be poleward.

Quoting LADobeLady:
where are you? the howling finally stopped here. i'm in brusly (west baton rouge)


I'm in Houma, it's storming here.

Quoting truecajun:


LOL! sorry i didn't realize that i put BR. that was silly. Baton Rouge. i really haven't heard wind like this except during canes. it's really strange that the local channels aren't saying anything. there is no rain, just constant howling winds and a little thunder in the distant north.

Quoting cirrocumulus:
It seems the center of Danielle may relocate to the southeast. It is still in the early stages.

Quoting PcolaDan:


Was quite easy to figure out Baton Rouge, considering your handle is "truecajun". DOH!

Not seeing any warnings nor watches for your area. Should be over pretty soon.

Quoting atmoaggie:
No great big changes here...

Quoting truecajun:


ah. yes. here is the rain. that wind was unnerving. i didn't like it catching me by surprise like that.

Quoting smuldy:
I'll go against the crowd. This is speculation this far out especially given model continuity, but I still refuse to buy a trough that deep and strong in August. IF the storm ramps up by tomorrow it could very well use its outflow to STRENGTHEN the ridge to its north. Given that the models forecast nearly a northerly movement from where it is, AND that even the NHC concedes it will head WNW for the next 48 hours, I find it highly troubling to call the models reliable as yet. Should the storm defy expectations, continue to feel a weakness to its north in the ridge, and should the ridge of high pressure break apart allowing a giant august nor'easter to form allowing a trough of low pressure to dip to 20n then the models will verify. At this time I have about 25% confidence of that happening. Where it goes will depend entirely on which components pan out and which do not, but until it recurves, or until the ridge weakens or splits, or until the large trough dips down at such an enormous strength, this needs to be watched by just about everyone on the Atlantic coastline or in Bermuda. Tropical cyclones are very difficult to predict, but given the number of extremely unusual components factored into the model forecast runs and given the current conditions showing little sign that these anomalies are shaping up save for computer runs, I feel this may well be the storm that models have the toughest time getting a handle on for this entire season in so far as track. Everyone should pay attention closely over the next few days to a)strength of the cyclone and its outflow b)latitude c) the mid atlantic ridge and d)any trough split around georgia sending a non tropical low pressure system up the us east coast, as these will be the key factors in the storms track.

Quoting ho77yw00d:
goodnight everyone cant wait until morning to see Danielle lol :) nite