Tropical Depression Six arrives
Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.
Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 AM AST MON AUG 23 2010
...DANIELLE STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 37.1W
ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT... WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH... 22 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 37.1 WEST. DANIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH... 22 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DANIELLE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
As it is now, I need to scroll thru pages and pages of posts to read yours and the posts of a few others whom I feel know what they are talking about.
Back to lurking.
Last night at 11 p.m. Danielle was traveling at 310 degrees, this morning it's 300 degrees (WNW).
Storm, love what you do. I know zip. I never stir re tropical systems. GW stuff has a political blend to it, and I am open, but question there.
I do investments, and was blogging there long before I came across WU. Those who like to cause trouble aren't going to answer honestly.
Here, it's all weather, and the bloggers may come or go. With investments, I come and go, depending on what I own. The names may change on the group of bloggers, but because I change forums depending on the investment, I have attained a certain laissez faire attitude re pain in the butts.
I apply that here as well.
CATWVLoop
Low Shear with a nice little anticyclone over it.
Good morning, Storm. Morning, everyone. It does look like a heart. lol Nice looking storm. Best looking storm this season so far. She certainly wound up nicely since yesterday.
Hey Storm, did you lose power with those big banging storms we got yesterday?
Danielle looks like she is really getting stronger - even ahead of what was forecasted.
Could be a major hitting or brushing close to Bermuda.
Chance of seeing another invest later today off the African coast?
I know a little about tropical weather. I had a good teacher. :) But for the most part my posts are usually followed by a question mark. Lol.
It's off to the races for me.
Have a great day everyone.
your seeing it right "W - WNW"
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 23 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
wow Ike beat me to it...
Storm, there are people like yourself on here that take the time out of your day to answer questions, give forecasts and help share the power of knowledge to many people. I think that is a good thing right or wrong I appreciate the time and commitment people like you give to this blog.
Interesting, CI... Dr. Masters will probably post new blog by about 9.
The formula is easy enough to find, but here's the already calculated version. ACE is calculated with 4 6-hourly advisories a day. Simply put, 5am/pm and 11am/pm.
Systems below 35kts/40mph do not count. Subtropical systems do not count. Special advisories or updates beyond these 6 hourly advisories do not count.
Per knots:
35kts/40mph – 0.1225
40kts/45mph – 0.1600
45kts – 0.2025
50kts – 0.2500
55kts – 0.3025
60kts – 0.3600
65kts/75mph – 0.4225
70kts – 0.4900
75kts – 0.5625
80kts – 0.6400
85kts – 0.7225
90kts – 0.8100
95kts – 0.9025
100kts/115mph – 1.000
105kts – 1.1025
110kts – 1.2100
115kts – 1.3225
120kts – 1.4400
125kts – 1.5625
130kts – 1.6900
135kts – 1.8225
140kts/160mph – 1.9600
145kts – 2.1025
150kts – 2.2500
155kts – 2.4025
160kts – 2.5600
165kts/190mph – 2.7225
So, per kts given on each 6 hourly advisory use that decimalised number. Then, for a storm over its lifetime, simply add together each 6 hourly number. Et voila!
Lol. He's fast. I'm always late with everything. :)
Lots of drier air now postioned into northern Africa.
Where is the MJB positioned? I can only imagine what should be a strong ridge of highs across the Atlantic when these waves leave the coast but I guess we shall see...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 23 2010
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AS OF 0900 UTC...TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 14.8N
37.1W...OR ABOUT 770 NM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MOVING NW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IT
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF
ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE CENTER
FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 36W-42W. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
I agree. It looks like it is far south of the expected track to me. But I too hope it gets pulled out to sea before it harms anyone. This one looks like it's pretty healthy. Great for tracking. Awful for people.
Morning Storm,
Looks like the Left Ventricle is engorged. ;)
Danielle is looking very good this morning and has built an impressive CDO.
I have been running the shorwave loop at various speeds and magnifications and from what I see the center does not appear to be as far East as the recent coordinates. I haven't looked at a microwave pass but 14.5 N and 38.5 W, or to the left of the points , is what I am seeing. It is entirely possible that the true center has relocated slightly and tucked a little deeper within the convection.
That would not be unusual for a sheared system that has reorganized.
In any event it is still far out at sea and a long way from any land so more of a " watch and see what happens " day today.
Having said that I dont mind being a litlte entertained at the same time.
As for the pot stirrers...unavoidable consequences of an open forum.
my 2 cents FWIW.
The shortwave is easiest for me to see. Link
Very good point. Thats why this year I have mostly lurked. While this board has some knowledgeable folks on it, most are wishcasters to the hilt. That is in the often times face of fact, they have a sign on their foreheads that says "Please come hit me, I want a hurricane so bad", we CAN make this happen attitude. I mean some of you on this board I know are laughing right now because what I am saying is so so true! Case in point, a model consensus on a hurricane pointing directly at south Florida. Many "knowledgable folks on this board take issue when someone suggests that the storm will miss south florida and as a matter of fact, actually get pissed off. Yet, the same scenario with a solid model consensus of a storm recurving, they take issue with those that may suggest that florida or the US is pretty much out of the woods. So even those with knowledge often times on this site are highly biased. As a matter of fact, I read this board for entertainment. If I want an opinion I can read the numerous discussions issued by the NWS and the TPC. Those discussions are arrived at after some of the sharpest minds in tropical meteorology have reviewed the facts, the models and than added the human factor and opinion. What more do you need?
Now THATS a good idea!!
+100
Congestive storm failure? ;)
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