Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

TropicalDepressionSix
- Date - - - Time - - - - - Location - - Windspeed - Pressure
21Aug - 06pmGMT - 10.8n31.8w - - 25knots . . . . 1008mb - NHC-ATCF
21Aug - 09pmGMT - 11.0n32.1w - - 30mph . . . . . 1008mb - NHC.Adv.1
22Aug - 12amGMT - 11.2n32.3w - - 25knots . . . . 1008mb - NHC-ATCF
22Aug - 03amGMT - 11.3n32.6w - - 35mph . . . . . 1008mb - NHC.Adv.2
22Aug - 06amGMT - 11.7n33.0w - - 30knots . . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF *was11.8n*
22Aug - 09amGMT - 12.1n33.4w - - 35mph . . . . . 1007mb - NHC.Adv.3
22Aug - 12pmGMT - 12.2n33.9w - - 30knots . . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF
22Aug - 03pmGMT - 12.7n34.1w - - 35mph . . . . . 1007mb - NHC.Adv.4
22Aug - 06pmGMT - 13.2n34.6w - - 30mph . . . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF
*before NHC reevaluated&altered TD6's path*
Copy&paste 11.7n33.0w-12.1n33.4w, 12.1n33.4w-12.2n33.9w, 12.2n33.9w-12.7n34.1w, 12.7n34.1w-13.2n34.6w, hex, bda, sid into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours. TD6's heading has turned westward from 1.1degrees north of NorthNorthWest to 0.6degrees north of Northwest.

Quoting Neapolitan:
Several spots with extremely high TCHP numbers. (Click for a larger image):



...and look at the expanding area with 26.C waters down to nearly 600 feet below the surface. You know the comparisons: two football fields...a 60-story building...more than a tenth of a mile. It's gonna take a couple of parked Camille's to drain the Viagra out of that mess (click for larger image):

Based on this information, wha do you think about the stationary circulation at 17.2N 85.0W ?

Quoting CosmicEvents:
Enough to make a grown man cry like a baby.

That is why it is so important to know whether a storm in a true hurricane or only a tropical storm at landfall and when it hits your home. Hurricane = hurricane deductible. Tropical storm = much lower, wind damage deductible. Check with your agent, but that's the way I understand it.

NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND ( WITH THE RECURVE)

One of the "dangers" in this years hurricane forecast was the idea that a storm could hit the coast moving west of north further north than normal. By that I mean storms of the genre if Isabel, and Fran, or the 1933 hurricane or the brave attempt by Felix in 1995. This occurs in years when ridges are prone to build further north than normal during the meat of the hurricane season.


I have been hemming and hawing about what is now td 6 for a while and how in spite of the models turning out, we should not write it off. Truth is, the pattern forecasted day 8-12 is ripe for the US coast to get hit.. I say US coast because one has to watch for activity popping up in the gulf out of this.

But the models have been trending west, most disturbingly the Euro which has major hurricane on day 10 moving west northwest near 30 north and 65 west.

Lets keep in mind that years coming off El Ninos, things like this happen The only year in history a major hurricane struck the Old Coast of Florida from the east.. 1964, ( that was Dora) came off the Nino. Isabel came off the Nino.. Felix came off the nino. And it has to do with the same overall climate response that we caught for the hot summer this year.. post nino years are almost always hot in much of the nation.

Now the flip side of this.. is alot of storms like to turn out quickly. Felix in 1995.. Bonnie, which hit the NC coast in 1998 turned out quickly.

I will be in later today to do the videos. A look at the euro ensembles

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP !North%20America!240!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2010082200!!/


show how far west the variance is by the color spread, as several runs have the storm approaching the NC coast day 10...

The 500 mb shows this too

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Geop otential%20at%20500hPa!North%20America!240!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2010 082200!!/



I apologize for not yet having the moveable type so you dont have to copy and paste the links.


This is an intereting test in that my theory that the ky to getting the season to start was to raise pressures in N America is something that is causing people some degree of consternation ( they disagree). Thats fine, but we will see. There is one heck of a cool shot coming into the nation this week before the summer ends boiling for much of the nation and its interesting to note that in previous years that the change in the weather pattern, or greater variances, suddenly would invite storm development. Which makes sense, because give a set of parameters that WERENT PRODUCING STORMS if you change that, it would make sense to go the other way.


One of the "problems" with TD 6 and perhaps the models is there are two systems.. one off to the northeast, and the modeling may be trying to pick out a mid point between the two. In addition , the cloud shot shows a big system coming off Africa this morning behind this:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml


In any case, this is "tugging" at td 6, retarding quicker westward movement so its now on the east side of its thunderstorms, with a look of the opposite kind of shear that we normally look to inhibit storms. However once the energy is bundled, and this is what the euro is seeing and why it develops this into a major hurricane on the 00z run, it will be free to deepen. This usually takes a few days ( again a look in the Pacific at typhoon evolution is what one needs to do. Many systems out there are double and even triple areas of low pressure within a large "envelope" Interestingly enough, Dora, the 64 storm I referenced, started in much the same manner

A look at the wide cloud shot of the atlantic examplifies my comment a few days ago that before a parade, one can "hear" the band coming before you see it. Like magic, 4 systems show up from the southeast Pacific to Africa

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-l.jpg

The one on the Pacific side of Mexico is not a US concern but is a case of in close development for Mexico and a problem there.

One sees the depression and what may be two systems, and of course the bomb coming off Africa. Also thunderstorms lurk in the northeast gulf. Notice also if you will how waves with virtually no cloudiness before now have some thunderstorms with them, once they approach and then get by 60 west.

For the gulf.. while there is modeling showing development in the northeast gulf, this trough leaving on the east coast ( and with it a first class summer noreaster for New England) is leaving a piece behind and that is something to watch.



BY JOE B

Quoting F4PHANTOM:
What happened to EARL????

Too busy making a sandwich.

--

T# - technique, i.e. short for Dvorak Technique.

Pertaining to which, appears to sufficiently support an upgrade whilst the visual appearance may be minimal.

However, worse have been upgraded.

F4PHANTOM .ECMWF LOST RIGTH NOW.

yes jurakantaino it did but then turned north then NNW then NW and now WNW I expect it to move even more west soon and also it has slow down when it started to move NNW

Thanks

Wow, the ECMWF destroys Bermuda.

18Z position forecast verification

From 1st forecast (24 hour)
2010082118 03 OFCL 24 126N 354W 45 0 TS

Actual position
AL 06 2010082218 01 CARQ 0 132N 346W 30 1007 TD

Difference of ~68 miles

From 3rd forecact (12 hour)
2010082206 03 OFCL 12 126N 346W 35 0 TS

Actual position
AL 06 2010082218 01 CARQ 0 132N 346W 30 1007 TD

Difference of ~42 miles

As a "westcaster" td6 is organizing once again and has commenced a westward movement once again, it should cross right over the next forecast point, if not a little south of it, it only gave the appearance in had crossed north, look at the visible loop.

Quoting DestinJeff:
ECMWF way east again this 12Z

LOL. Love those 'muddles'....

168 hr. 12Z ECMWF...

Models are now coming into agreement on a strong ridge building over 06L as it misses the first recurvature. What happens beyond there is uncertain.

yea the 12Z ECMWF puts it right over Bermuda

I could care less where it goes from there, that is not good

Quoting Clearwater1:


That is why it is so important to know whether a storm in a true hurricane or only a tropical storm at landfall and when it hits your home. Hurricane = hurricane deductible. Tropical storm = much lower, wind damage deductible. Check with your agent, but that's the way I understand it.

You are so correct to check with agent and READ YOUR POLICY. If memoryv serves correct I think the policy I had called for a "named storm of tropical origins" or some thing like that!!!!Read it so you know!!!!

277. CaneFears 6:57 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

JFV if it hits Bermuda at that intensity it could rival what Fabian did to the island in 2003, maybe even worse

show some heart for once

Quoting Hurricanes101:
277. CaneFears 6:57 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

JFV if it hits Bermuda at that intensity it could rival what Fabian did to the island in 2003, maybe even worse

show some heart for once

+1!

Quoting JFV:


I do. NEXT.

It's sad how you need to create multiple usernames to just insult people on this blog. Ravage another forum for goodness sake.

284. CaneFears 7:01 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

you are kidding right? lol

Quoting Snowlover123:


It's sad how you need to create multiple usernames to just insult people on this blog. Ravage another forum for goodness sake.

please dont quote the iddit

How often do models get intensity correct?

From what I've seen not too often.

It looks like TD6 will eventually slip northward as it passes not far from Bermuda through a weakness between two highs. It looks like a classic fish storm in the making to me.

Live tropics talk at www.cyclonezonecz.blogspot.com

its on bottom of page

starting in just a few mins

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2010 Time : 181500 UTC
Lat : 12:55:17 N Lon : 34:31:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.0mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.9 2.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : +14.5C Cloud Region Temp : -4.8C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.35^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Yay lol. Weakening flag still on :/

Good afternoon, Ive been reading and watching the progress of TD6 over the last couple of days. It seemes like the track of TD6 (according to the experts) keeps getting closer to the United States. At this rate I would expect a landfalling hurricane somewhere on the E coast more than not. The reason I say this is that the language is strong not to let your guard down. Time will tell.

Quoting xcool:
NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND ( WITH THE RECURVE)

One of the "dangers" in this years hurricane forecast was the idea that a storm could hit the coast moving west of north further north than normal. By that I mean storms of the genre if Isabel, and Fran, or the 1933 hurricane or the brave attempt by Felix in 1995. This occurs in years when ridges are prone to build further north than normal during the meat of the hurricane season.


I have been hemming and hawing about what is now td 6 for a while and how in spite of the models turning out, we should not write it off. Truth is, the pattern forecasted day 8-12 is ripe for the US coast to get hit.. I say US coast because one has to watch for activity popping up in the gulf out of this.

But the models have been trending west, most disturbingly the Euro which has major hurricane on day 10 moving west northwest near 30 north and 65 west.

Lets keep in mind that years coming off El Ninos, things like this happen The only year in history a major hurricane struck the Old Coast of Florida from the east.. 1964, ( that was Dora) came off the Nino. Isabel came off the Nino.. Felix came off the nino. And it has to do with the same overall climate response that we caught for the hot summer this year.. post nino years are almost always hot in much of the nation.

Now the flip side of this.. is alot of storms like to turn out quickly. Felix in 1995.. Bonnie, which hit the NC coast in 1998 turned out quickly.

I will be in later today to do the videos. A look at the euro ensembles

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP !North%20America!240!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2010082200!!/


show how far west the variance is by the color spread, as several runs have the storm approaching the NC coast day 10...

The 500 mb shows this too

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Geop otential%20at%20500hPa!North%20America!240!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2010 082200!!/



I apologize for not yet having the moveable type so you dont have to copy and paste the links.


This is an intereting test in that my theory that the ky to getting the season to start was to raise pressures in N America is something that is causing people some degree of consternation ( they disagree). Thats fine, but we will see. There is one heck of a cool shot coming into the nation this week before the summer ends boiling for much of the nation and its interesting to note that in previous years that the change in the weather pattern, or greater variances, suddenly would invite storm development. Which makes sense, because give a set of parameters that WERENT PRODUCING STORMS if you change that, it would make sense to go the other way.


One of the "problems" with TD 6 and perhaps the models is there are two systems.. one off to the northeast, and the modeling may be trying to pick out a mid point between the two. In addition , the cloud shot shows a big system coming off Africa this morning behind this:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml


In any case, this is "tugging" at td 6, retarding quicker westward movement so its now on the east side of its thunderstorms, with a look of the opposite kind of shear that we normally look to inhibit storms. However once the energy is bundled, and this is what the euro is seeing and why it develops this into a major hurricane on the 00z run, it will be free to deepen. This usually takes a few days ( again a look in the Pacific at typhoon evolution is what one needs to do. Many systems out there are double and even triple areas of low pressure within a large "envelope" Interestingly enough, Dora, the 64 storm I referenced, started in much the same manner

A look at the wide cloud shot of the atlantic examplifies my comment a few days ago that before a parade, one can "hear" the band coming before you see it. Like magic, 4 systems show up from the southeast Pacific to Africa

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-l.jpg

The one on the Pacific side of Mexico is not a US concern but is a case of in close development for Mexico and a problem there.

One sees the depression and what may be two systems, and of course the bomb coming off Africa. Also thunderstorms lurk in the northeast gulf. Notice also if you will how waves with virtually no cloudiness before now have some thunderstorms with them, once they approach and then get by 60 west.

For the gulf.. while there is modeling showing development in the northeast gulf, this trough leaving on the east coast ( and with it a first class summer noreaster for New England) is leaving a piece behind and that is something to watch.



BY JOE B

+ 1

Nice Read There....

Taco :o)

Quoting Hurricanes101:
277. CaneFears 6:57 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

JFV if it hits Bermuda at that intensity it could rival what Fabian did to the island in 2003, maybe even worse

show some heart for once

It would be SO MUCH BETTER if you (and others who seem to have the same issues) would Flag and Ignore these posts.
Instead of subjecting the rest of us to endless reposts and comments that have nothing to add to this blog.

taco2me61 hey :)!!

Quoting philliesrock:
Wow, the ECMWF destroys Bermuda.

Agree...on that track and intensity, Bermuda would get rocked.

I think the SE USA is spared from TD6. The NE USA has a chance of feeling something from it. Points north and east from there is a greater chance.

296. CaneFears 7:05 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

and you know this how?

seriously get over yourself