Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting flstormhog:


Morning Storm,

Looks like the Left Ventricle is engorged. ;)

Congestive storm failure? ;)

To me it looks like she's moving just north of 14n and almost due west. With all the prior stated caveats to my credentials. :)

I would ask how many on here have more tools at their disposal and more knowledge than the NHC??

Quoting StormW:
Here ya go...this is in my synopsis, which I'm still typing, but try this:

Now, notice 2 things. Look in between the ridge centers, at around 40W. That is one weakness. If you look over the NC/VA area, and the flow off the Mid Atlantic coast, that's another "weakness" Even though the predominate flow is westerly, the storm is still going to "feel" or "see" these weaknesses, and have a tendency to want to head for them...the way out of the tropics, so to speak. If you take the direction toward the first break in the ridge, between the ATL ridge, that's about 315-320. The direction toward the east coast weakness is about 290. The predominate flow Danielle is in is 270. Add the numbers and divide by 3.

Now this makes sense. Thank you. I always learn from your posts.

Quoting StormW:
Here ya go...this is in my synopsis, which I'm still typing, but try this:

Now, notice 2 things. Look in between the ridge centers, at around 40W. That is one weakness. If you look over the NC/VA area, and the flow off the Mid Atlantic coast, that's another "weakness" Even though the predominate flow is westerly, the storm is still going to "feel" or "see" these weaknesses, and have a tendency to want to head for them...the way out of the tropics, so to speak. If you take the direction toward the first break in the ridge, between the ATL ridge, that's about 315-320. The direction toward the east coast weakness is about 290. The predominate flow Danielle is in is 270. Add the numbers and divide by 3.

So bascially in the 291-293 range.

ECMWF is predicting the 10% off Africa will develop.

Quoting BobinTampa:
I would ask how many on here have more tools at their disposal and more knowledge than the NHC??

(Hand springs up into the air)


Pick me, pick me! I know this one!!!!

Hmmmm,morning everyone, the aoi offshore tpa might begin to orgainize if sheer relaxes...,been watching it spin since yesterday

Quoting StormW:
Here ya go...this is in my synopsis, which I'm still typing, but try this:

Now, notice 2 things. Look in between the ridge centers, at around 40W. That is one weakness. If you look over the NC/VA area, and the flow off the Mid Atlantic coast, that's another "weakness" Even though the predominate flow is westerly, the storm is still going to "feel" or "see" these weaknesses, and have a tendency to want to head for them...the way out of the tropics, so to speak. If you take the direction toward the first break in the ridge, between the ATL ridge, that's about 315-320. The direction toward the east coast weakness is about 290. The predominate flow Danielle is in is 270. Add the numbers and divide by 3.

Hi Storm,

You must be a mind reader as I was just about to post the image below. Danielle is about mid way the weakness between two bridging highs. That would account for where the system is now but as it progresses it will come under a stronger Westerly flow from the high to the West. This should flatten the track some and may already be influencing it.

I see Danielle is organizing nicley.should be a hurricane by late tonight into tomorrow morning.And the wave off of africa could become a storm in the next few days.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
ECMWF is predicting the 10% off Africa will develop.

Yeah I saw that. But I'm ignoring the thing in the GOM. For now. Looks familiar some how. :)

Quoting barotropic:
"I know I shouldn't, as I know everyone is entitled to their opinion on Doc's blog, but I have to ask...how many of you that come on here and just make blanket statements and like stirring the pot, REALLY know anything about tropical meteorology?"

Very good point. Thats why this year I have mostly lurked. While this board has some knowledgeable folks on it, most are wishcasters to the hilt. That is in the often times face of fact, they have a sign on their foreheads that says "Please come hit me, I want a hurricane so bad", we CAN make this happen attitude. I mean some of you on this board I know are laughing right now because what I am saying is so so true! Case in point, a model consensus on a hurricane pointing directly at south Florida. Many "knowledgable folks on this board take issue when someone suggests that the storm will miss south florida and as a matter of fact, actually get pissed off. Yet, the same scenario with a solid model consensus of a storm recurving, they take issue with those that may suggest that florida or the US is pretty much out of the woods. So even those with knowledge often times on this site are highly biased. As a matter of fact, I read this board for entertainment. If I want an opinion I can read the numerous discussions issued by the NWS and the TPC. Those discussions are arrived at after some of the sharpest minds in tropical meteorology have reviewed the facts, the models and than added the human factor and opinion. What more do you need?

I can't argue with anything you said and I read it 3 times. I agree with your comments.

Quoting StormW:
Here ya go...this is in my synopsis, which I'm still typing, but try this:

Now, notice 2 things. Look in between the ridge centers, at around 40W. That is one weakness. If you look over the NC/VA area, and the flow off the Mid Atlantic coast, that's another "weakness" Even though the predominate flow is westerly, the storm is still going to "feel" or "see" these weaknesses, and have a tendency to want to head for them...the way out of the tropics, so to speak. If you take the direction toward the first break in the ridge, between the ATL ridge, that's about 315-320. The direction toward the east coast weakness is about 290. The predominate flow Danielle is in is 270. Add the numbers and divide by 3.

round off to 290

morning all looks like our ts doent want to play the model game and is going further south and moving west as of this hour . will this make the next run in a shift to the west . and will this be trend . as danaile misses the first trof . and she stalls that would give time for the high to build in and move her more west ? tia enjoy your coffee

Quoting CybrTeddy:
ECMWF is predicting the 10% off Africa will develop.

GFS also develops this.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
ECMWF is predicting the 10% off Africa will develop.

and be a fish

Quoting BobinTampa:
I would ask how many on here have more tools at their disposal and more knowledge than the NHC??

I don't have what they have. Just my eyes and opinion. I could be completely wrong about where I see the center and how I think it's moving. But at least they let the under qualified like me make a complete fool of myself on this blog if I so choose. :)

Quoting StormW:


How about the same tools and same knowledge.

how about less tools and knowlege but great psychic powers.

Quoting StormW:


How about the same tools and same knowledge.

I would say that's probably a bit aggressive. NHC has a multi-million dollar budget. If you can do the same work as them out of your house, you should write Obama a letter. He's looking to cut budget.

And this isn't to bash you. I look forward to your posts. But the NHC bashing on here gets ridiculous sometimes. What is the NHC's motivation to put out incorrect information??

Quoting StormW:
I know I shouldn't, as I know everyone is entitled to their opinion on Doc's blog, but I have to ask...how many of you that come on here and just make blanket statements and like stirring the pot, REALLY know anything about tropical meteorology?

How many meteoroligists really know for sure where this storm is headed? I haven't seen the first "expert" forecast a path south of where the "experts" thought it was going. This blog might go the way of FLhurricane.com...where unless you are some "expert"...your opinions and guesses aren't wanted. You will never hear them say...
"I really don't understand why the storm is heading more west than we thought. Then we they see the storm doing something that wasn't anticipated, they pretend to have covered their bases. Truth of the matter...the mets aren't right all the time...and I hate to think I'd have to listen to only experts. I'll take a free for all forum anyday. some people are just full of themselves, I guess

Quoting StormW:


Well, I can...model consensus...still ain't happened yet. It will or should, but not yet. And the GFS that everyone worships, had her taking the hard north at 40W earlier in the period...where is the storm now?

The storm is close to where the NHC thought it was going to be at this time.

Here's the 36 hour forecast by the NHC issued at 5pm EDST Saturday....

36HR VT 23/0600Z 13.6N 38.2W 55 KT

Here's where it was.....

INITIAL 23/0900Z 14.8N 37.1W 50 KT
........

The NHC has a track well north and east of the islands. The NHC has a track east of Bermuda. Those are the most important things. No one is perfect on a forecast.

Quoting BobinTampa:
I would ask how many on here have more tools at their disposal and more knowledge than the NHC??

ok cool then we can save some money cancel JMs blog and the comments and just read what NHC posts. Jees. Do they know the most? Well even - Max Mayfield prolly. But does that mean we shouldnt ever debate and agree or dissent?

I don't much at all. The only thing I can say is nobody is right all the time with forecasting these storms, not the mets, not the people here, and certainly not the general public. Heck, most of them are oblivious and that's NOT a good thing.

Quoting StormW:


Well, I can...model consensus...still ain't happened yet. It will or should, but not yet. And the GFS that everyone worships, had her taking the hard north at 40W earlier in the period...where is the storm now?

Senior, I have looked at this from 3 different satellite's and the best I can do is 275 - 280. Where is the COC?

It appears that Danielle will only be a threat to marine interests in the north central Atlantic. Anyone knows what the forecast models are saying about the new disturbance off the African coast and what possible track it might take? Perhaps it's too early to know whether the same troughs (that will steer Danielle northeast) will impact this disturbance.

Quoting stillwaiting:
Hmmmm,morning everyone, the aoi offshore tpa might begin to orgainize if sheer relaxes...,been watching it spin since yesterday

me too !!! very confused about it & I don't know how to frame an intelligent question LOL
Still, missed the post if you answered this yesterday
are the Tarpon running on our shoreline/Siesta Key now? have you seen any mean-finned ones?

hey Kman hmm I think it might even be possible for our TS to feel the next high and maybe turn from west to WSW then moves back W-WNW accordingf to that map you posted

Quoting hercj:

Senior, I have looked at this from 3 different satellite's and the best I can do is 275 - 280. Where is the COC?

looks like center due south of next nhc forecast point

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey Kman hmm I think it might even be possible for our TS to feel the next high and maybe turn from west to WSW then moves back W-WNW accordingf to that map you posted

I think a track more to the West short term but those two highs will not sit still. It would take a very strong high to force a strengthening storm to the S of a Westerly heading. Of course, it is always possible but not probable IMO.

Quoting BobinTampa:


no, not at all. I'm on your side on this one. StormW's post was basically saying "you guys don't know as much as me so shut up and listen."

I was responding to that.

No it wasn't. Storm never says ANYTHING like that. He posts his best EDUCATED analysis of the feature for anyone to read.

Easy guys

There is a lot to learn from watching Danielle.

There is no sense in bashing anyone or questioning credentials.

All the ladies on the blog are so cival. Do us fellas really have that much of an issue getting along with others?

Anyway, moving on.....

Quoting mrpuertorico:


looks like center due south of next nhc forecast point

I don't know how to post a link but if you look at NHC rainbow loop with the forecast points it IS due south and definitely moving almost due west.

Rather impressive tropical wave.

991

WHXX01 KWBC 231237

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1237 UTC MON AUG 23 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE (AL062010) 20100823 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100823 1200 100824 0000 100824 1200 100825 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.8N 38.7W 15.7N 40.9W 17.2N 43.6W 19.1N 46.5W

BAMD 14.8N 38.7W 15.8N 41.3W 17.0N 43.6W 18.9N 45.7W

BAMM 14.8N 38.7W 15.9N 41.1W 17.2N 43.8W 19.1N 46.4W

LBAR 14.8N 38.7W 15.8N 41.3W 17.0N 44.3W 18.4N 47.3W

SHIP 50KTS 62KTS 74KTS 82KTS

DSHP 50KTS 62KTS 74KTS 82KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100825 1200 100826 1200 100827 1200 100828 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 20.9N 49.6W 22.8N 53.3W 25.1N 52.0W 31.0N 51.5W

BAMD 21.1N 47.6W 26.3N 50.4W 30.3N 51.4W 34.1N 52.8W

BAMM 21.0N 48.9W 24.1N 52.2W 26.7N 52.2W 31.3N 51.7W

LBAR 19.8N 50.3W 23.7N 54.2W 28.0N 54.8W 31.4N 53.9W

SHIP 89KTS 95KTS 91KTS 88KTS

DSHP 89KTS 95KTS 91KTS 88KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.8N LONCUR = 38.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 14KT

LATM12 = 13.9N LONM12 = 35.9W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 14KT

LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 33.9W

WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 40KT

CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 60NM



$$

NNNN

Quoting StormW:


I've got it near 14.8N 39.0W

When I first came on this morning I placed it at 14.5 N and 38.5 W so those numbers look pretty good to me.

Good Morning, from a Bright and Suynny island.
It looks like we will get a few days of mostly hot conditions as Danielle tends to draw the moist stuff away from here
D. looks good this morning.
And a little something behind....
And a larger something in the EPAC....
Going to be a fun couple of days/weeks/months.

Quoting StormW:


I've got it near 14.8N 39.0W

So its under the convection? NHC keeps saying it's on the eastern side but I can't see that.

The "holier-than-thou" attitude is really getting old and stale.

Quoting BobinTampa:


no, not at all. I'm on your side on this one. StormW's post was basically saying "you guys don't know as much as me so shut up and listen."

I was responding to that.

oh ok sorry totally misread sarcasm and text and all lol; i respect whatever stormw wants to think cause i get 90% of my info from him and some are ridiculous with their one line fishstorm not fishstorm posts and if he meant novice casters like me he and he alone here has the right so i just shut my mouth and apologized if i came off to the very valuable experts here in any annoying way save for my humor posts