Earl a Category 4 storm again
Hurricane Earl has regained Category 4 strength this afternoon, and continues on a steady northwest path towards the North Carolina coast. Recent satellite imagery shows that Earl has become more symmetrical, with improved upper-level outflow and no signs of dry air wrapping into the core. The improved appearance is probably due to lower wind shear. Latest wind shear tendency imagery from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that shear on the southwest side of Earl has fallen by about 10 knots over the past 24 hours.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Earl.
Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning shows little change to Earl's track. Thus, my write-up of the possible impacts to North Carolina, New England, and Canada in this morning's post remain unchanged. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear will remain moderate, about 15 knots, through Friday afternoon. This should allow Earl to maintain major hurricane status as it passes North Carolina early Friday morning. By Friday night, as Earl gets caught in the jet stream and accelerates to the northeast, wind shear will rise to 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane early Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.
Earl is a large hurricane, which gives it a higher potential for storm surge damage than a smaller hurricane with the same top winds. One measure of a storm's power, useful for gauging storm surge threat, is to measure the speed of the winds and multiply by the area over which those winds blow. This total is called the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Based on the storm's IKE, one can come up with a scale from 0 - 6 rating the storm's destructive power from its storm surge. A separate rating can be given to the destructive potential of the storm's winds. The IKE value of 112 Terrajoules for Earl, at 3:30pm EDT today, gives its storm surge a destructive power of 5.0 on a scale of 0 - 6. Earl's winds have a lower destructive power, 3.4 on a scale of 0 - 6. Let's hope the right front quadrant of Earl, where the main storm surge would occur, stays offshore! For comparison, the small Category 5 Hurricane Camille of 1969 had an IKE of 80 Terrajoules, and the very large Category 2 Hurricane Ike of 2008 had an IKE of 116 Terrajoules--similar to Category 3 Earl's.
Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona is struggling due to high wind shear, courtesy of strong upper-level northerly winds from Hurricane Earl's outflow. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fix at 1:29pm EDT found Fiona had weakened some, with a central pressure of 999 mb. This is a rise of 1 mb from this morning. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that shear has increased to a moderately high 15 - 20 knots this afternoon. Satellite loops show the classic signature of a tropical storm experiencing high wind shear--an exposed center of circulation, and all the heavy thunderstorms pushed to one side (the south side in this case). Martinique radar shows that the outer bands from Fiona are bringing heavy rain squalls to the same islands of the northern Lesser Antilles that were affected by Earl. Our wundermap for the northern Lesser Antilles shows no stations recorded winds over 20 mph this afternoon, though there was no reporting station on Barbuda, the island closest to Fiona.
Forecast for Fiona
Moderate wind shear and dry air should keep Fiona from attaining hurricane status over the next two days, as big brother Earl continues to bring high wind shear. The shear may be strong enough to destroy Fiona, as predicted by the NHC. However, by this weekend, Earl may pull far enough away for shear to drop and Fiona to survive. The 4 - 5 day track forecast is highly uncertain, as there is a large spread in the model solutions. It is possible Fiona may pose a threat to Bermuda on Saturday or Sunday, and the storm could wander for a week or more in the waters between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast.
Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of Fiona.
Tropical Storm Gaston forms
Tropical Storm Gaston developed enough heavy thunderstorms near its center this afternoon to get a name, and appears destined to become Hurricane Gaston by early next week. Water vapor satellite images show a large area of dry air to the north and west of Gaston, and this dry air will be the dominant inhibiting factor for development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, and perhaps fall to the low range 4 - 5 days from now. Gaston is over warm 28°C waters, and should be able to steadily intensify into a hurricane by Saturday or Sunday, as predicted by the many of the intensity models. Gaston may threaten the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Tuesday.
Next post
I'll have an update in the morning, and Dr. Rob Carver will have a late night update tonight.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 — Blog Index
Remember yesterday when the NHC had a 20% chance on 98L, who would of thought it that it went to become Gaston the next day?
That is a rule of thumb, but not something upon which to base decisions. Lots of people on this blog cited that rule as reasons why Ike wouldn't make the Gulf, let alone Texas.
Click for larger image:
Gonna Look at it in the morn SJ
Yup. I've just never seen so many consecutive storms form out there in the EATL in such a short time. No waves are making it across the Atlantic because their developing so soon.
yep. not even in 2005. we could have 3 majors in a two week period. insane.
Weren't those flight level winds?
img src="
(Disclaimer: Not real)
That is straight north.
Hey miami! I know I didn't expect it. I thought we'd see a TD today however, but not so much so fast. Looks like the NHC is picking up on these waves faster with the latest TWO mention. Probably looking at Hermine.
yep if the wave behind gaston develops, that would be 5 straight wave. freakin impressive.
today is the anniversary of Hurricane Gustav 2008. is that what that image is of. if so, this season is up to speed now with 08 since we've got our "G" storm.
Hey stormhank, nice to see you back! The ridge is forecast to build back in after Earl's departure by many of the models, the Leewards should definitely be watching Gaston and the southeast coast in the long term. With the pattern change that StormW caught beginning to take shape, every wave that rolls off Africa has the potential to develop and threaten land.
Dang it! I do not want to get hit by hurricane Kirk!
From Wikipedia:
An annular hurricane or truck tire pattern hurricane is a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific Oceans that features a large, symmetric eye surrounded by a thick ring of intense convection.
Annular hurricanes also tend to persist, even when encountering environmental conditions which easily dissipate most other hurricanes. Forecasters have difficulty predicting the behavior of annular hurricanes; they are a recently recognized phenomenon, and as such, little is known about their tendencies. Because of this, they can be more dangerous than typical hurricanes.
But it went from 72.w to 73.5W so NW
Yep.
Mayan apocalypse.
How would you run..say couple of fan or a radio or tv on them? guess they wouldn't power a fridge tho, huh?
Thank you. I'm not sure why she never closed her circulation earlier, but this is not the first time it happened. In 2003 (I think it was) I watched the wave that became hurricane Claudette track across the Caribbean with winds of tropical storm force, but moving so fast that it just couldn't close off the circulation. I believe it was 2001 that Lili moved so fast through the Caribbean that she degenerated into an open wave before finally pulling it together to become a high end cat 4 in the Gulf.
HURRICANE EARL AND FRIENDS SYNOPSIS SEP. 01, 2010 ISSUED 12:05 P.M.
Thomas F. Walsh III, September 1, 2010
Meteorologist, Palm Harbor Tropical Forecast Center
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/StormW/show.html?entrynum=765
Looks like its nearing that on IR channel
It needs more intense convection around the eye. Right now its between -60c and -70c. If it were uniform -80c around the whole eye, and the eye was maybe a little bigger then I'd say yes.
Evacuate the planet! ;-)
LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
I think we all know Taz and why do you care so much?
Viewing: 951 - 1001
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 — Blog Index