Earl a Category 4 storm again
Hurricane Earl has regained Category 4 strength this afternoon, and continues on a steady northwest path towards the North Carolina coast. Recent satellite imagery shows that Earl has become more symmetrical, with improved upper-level outflow and no signs of dry air wrapping into the core. The improved appearance is probably due to lower wind shear. Latest wind shear tendency imagery from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that shear on the southwest side of Earl has fallen by about 10 knots over the past 24 hours.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Earl.
Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning shows little change to Earl's track. Thus, my write-up of the possible impacts to North Carolina, New England, and Canada in this morning's post remain unchanged. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear will remain moderate, about 15 knots, through Friday afternoon. This should allow Earl to maintain major hurricane status as it passes North Carolina early Friday morning. By Friday night, as Earl gets caught in the jet stream and accelerates to the northeast, wind shear will rise to 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20ยฐC, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane early Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.
Earl is a large hurricane, which gives it a higher potential for storm surge damage than a smaller hurricane with the same top winds. One measure of a storm's power, useful for gauging storm surge threat, is to measure the speed of the winds and multiply by the area over which those winds blow. This total is called the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Based on the storm's IKE, one can come up with a scale from 0 - 6 rating the storm's destructive power from its storm surge. A separate rating can be given to the destructive potential of the storm's winds. The IKE value of 112 Terrajoules for Earl, at 3:30pm EDT today, gives its storm surge a destructive power of 5.0 on a scale of 0 - 6. Earl's winds have a lower destructive power, 3.4 on a scale of 0 - 6. Let's hope the right front quadrant of Earl, where the main storm surge would occur, stays offshore! For comparison, the small Category 5 Hurricane Camille of 1969 had an IKE of 80 Terrajoules, and the very large Category 2 Hurricane Ike of 2008 had an IKE of 116 Terrajoules--similar to Category 3 Earl's.
Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona is struggling due to high wind shear, courtesy of strong upper-level northerly winds from Hurricane Earl's outflow. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fix at 1:29pm EDT found Fiona had weakened some, with a central pressure of 999 mb. This is a rise of 1 mb from this morning. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that shear has increased to a moderately high 15 - 20 knots this afternoon. Satellite loops show the classic signature of a tropical storm experiencing high wind shear--an exposed center of circulation, and all the heavy thunderstorms pushed to one side (the south side in this case). Martinique radar shows that the outer bands from Fiona are bringing heavy rain squalls to the same islands of the northern Lesser Antilles that were affected by Earl. Our wundermap for the northern Lesser Antilles shows no stations recorded winds over 20 mph this afternoon, though there was no reporting station on Barbuda, the island closest to Fiona.
Forecast for Fiona
Moderate wind shear and dry air should keep Fiona from attaining hurricane status over the next two days, as big brother Earl continues to bring high wind shear. The shear may be strong enough to destroy Fiona, as predicted by the NHC. However, by this weekend, Earl may pull far enough away for shear to drop and Fiona to survive. The 4 - 5 day track forecast is highly uncertain, as there is a large spread in the model solutions. It is possible Fiona may pose a threat to Bermuda on Saturday or Sunday, and the storm could wander for a week or more in the waters between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast.
Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of Fiona.
Tropical Storm Gaston forms
Tropical Storm Gaston developed enough heavy thunderstorms near its center this afternoon to get a name, and appears destined to become Hurricane Gaston by early next week. Water vapor satellite images show a large area of dry air to the north and west of Gaston, and this dry air will be the dominant inhibiting factor for development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, and perhaps fall to the low range 4 - 5 days from now. Gaston is over warm 28ยฐC waters, and should be able to steadily intensify into a hurricane by Saturday or Sunday, as predicted by the many of the intensity models. Gaston may threaten the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Tuesday.
Next post
I'll have an update in the morning, and Dr. Rob Carver will have a late night update tonight.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I fear tomorrows headlines if those work their way down to the surface.
Zombie-Cane! I like it!
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
500 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010
...THE SEVENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...THE FOURTH TROPICAL STORM IN THE LAST ELEVEN DAYS...
Zing!
-- as Atmo would say....
Charlie Brown would say, Good Grief!
those were the highest winds recorded above the surface in a dropsonde (at 905 mb, or a couple of thousand feet above the ground). Those winds are NOT at the surface.
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 09/02/10 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
Happens to everyone.
Timing is everything LOL..
U betcha
LMAO! It's very tempting sometimes when the little buggers are trying you patience.
Winds at 925mb are usually 130% of surface winds, TC winds are a LOT stronger about 1000 feet up. Once those winds hit 200mph we will have a 5 on our hands. The way earl looks now though something tells me that this would be a 160mph Cat 5 if all we had was Dvorak Estimates. Thankfully Earl is not that strong yet.
Good one thanks. Didn't have it.
Yeah, yeah. I did that when I didn't get an answer. I still didn't find out all I wanted to know, but it don't matter.
Here's the 00z SHIPS:
V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 49 56 63 72 79 84 86 92 94
Purples wrapping around?
Best post I've seen since I came on..
Well Gaston.... don't leave behind Hermine..
Annular hurricanes are very compact storms that essentially crowd themselves inside their cores, shielding them from a lot of dry air and shear.
MARK NEAR
27.30N/73.40W
That was run 2 hours ago?
Thankfully the landscape there can handle huge tides, a storm surge at any time other that high tide would have little effect in most places, at least compared to a place like NYC or NOLA. A 10 foot surge at low tide would be just another high tide there.
even the gamign forums are talking about EARL..
btw.. 922?
Well..best not be around near landfall.
Good luck with that. Most have their "built in" "rechargeable" batteries now, which SUCK as how can one charge a battery with no power?
They need to make them to take regular AAs or other normal batteries, not these "special" ones.
u r welcome Dan
ABNT20 KNHC 012347
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 565 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA. ADVISORIES ARE ALSO BEING ISSUED ON TROPICAL STORM
FIONA...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES NORTH OF ANGUILLA IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND ON RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM
GASTON...LOCATED ABOUT 895 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.
YET ANOTHER STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT TO MOVE OFF THE WEST COAST
OF AFRICA AND IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GASTON ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GASTON ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
That was kinda my thought. Banding features are not as evident in the core, but they are on the periphery. Danielle was similar at one point, and hit 1 on the annular model or whatever that is.
Viewing: 1101 - 1151
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