Earl a Category 4 storm again
Hurricane Earl has regained Category 4 strength this afternoon, and continues on a steady northwest path towards the North Carolina coast. Recent satellite imagery shows that Earl has become more symmetrical, with improved upper-level outflow and no signs of dry air wrapping into the core. The improved appearance is probably due to lower wind shear. Latest wind shear tendency imagery from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that shear on the southwest side of Earl has fallen by about 10 knots over the past 24 hours.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Earl.
Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning shows little change to Earl's track. Thus, my write-up of the possible impacts to North Carolina, New England, and Canada in this morning's post remain unchanged. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear will remain moderate, about 15 knots, through Friday afternoon. This should allow Earl to maintain major hurricane status as it passes North Carolina early Friday morning. By Friday night, as Earl gets caught in the jet stream and accelerates to the northeast, wind shear will rise to 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane early Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.
Earl is a large hurricane, which gives it a higher potential for storm surge damage than a smaller hurricane with the same top winds. One measure of a storm's power, useful for gauging storm surge threat, is to measure the speed of the winds and multiply by the area over which those winds blow. This total is called the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Based on the storm's IKE, one can come up with a scale from 0 - 6 rating the storm's destructive power from its storm surge. A separate rating can be given to the destructive potential of the storm's winds. The IKE value of 112 Terrajoules for Earl, at 3:30pm EDT today, gives its storm surge a destructive power of 5.0 on a scale of 0 - 6. Earl's winds have a lower destructive power, 3.4 on a scale of 0 - 6. Let's hope the right front quadrant of Earl, where the main storm surge would occur, stays offshore! For comparison, the small Category 5 Hurricane Camille of 1969 had an IKE of 80 Terrajoules, and the very large Category 2 Hurricane Ike of 2008 had an IKE of 116 Terrajoules--similar to Category 3 Earl's.
Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona is struggling due to high wind shear, courtesy of strong upper-level northerly winds from Hurricane Earl's outflow. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fix at 1:29pm EDT found Fiona had weakened some, with a central pressure of 999 mb. This is a rise of 1 mb from this morning. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that shear has increased to a moderately high 15 - 20 knots this afternoon. Satellite loops show the classic signature of a tropical storm experiencing high wind shear--an exposed center of circulation, and all the heavy thunderstorms pushed to one side (the south side in this case). Martinique radar shows that the outer bands from Fiona are bringing heavy rain squalls to the same islands of the northern Lesser Antilles that were affected by Earl. Our wundermap for the northern Lesser Antilles shows no stations recorded winds over 20 mph this afternoon, though there was no reporting station on Barbuda, the island closest to Fiona.
Forecast for Fiona
Moderate wind shear and dry air should keep Fiona from attaining hurricane status over the next two days, as big brother Earl continues to bring high wind shear. The shear may be strong enough to destroy Fiona, as predicted by the NHC. However, by this weekend, Earl may pull far enough away for shear to drop and Fiona to survive. The 4 - 5 day track forecast is highly uncertain, as there is a large spread in the model solutions. It is possible Fiona may pose a threat to Bermuda on Saturday or Sunday, and the storm could wander for a week or more in the waters between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast.
Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of Fiona.
Tropical Storm Gaston forms
Tropical Storm Gaston developed enough heavy thunderstorms near its center this afternoon to get a name, and appears destined to become Hurricane Gaston by early next week. Water vapor satellite images show a large area of dry air to the north and west of Gaston, and this dry air will be the dominant inhibiting factor for development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, and perhaps fall to the low range 4 - 5 days from now. Gaston is over warm 28°C waters, and should be able to steadily intensify into a hurricane by Saturday or Sunday, as predicted by the many of the intensity models. Gaston may threaten the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Tuesday.
Next post
I'll have an update in the morning, and Dr. Rob Carver will have a late night update tonight.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Agree - could be really bad. (No wishcastin')
I'm going with 150 mph and an update before 11pm.
imagine if this was in the carribean.. with warmer waters.. completely moist environment.. and perfect upper level conditions.. if this thing could get near CAT 5 strength in this environement.... imagine the carribean?
Or 30n 90w
Chum in a few days.
Unfortunately, somebody's mamma and papa will be very upset. They do it every time there's big surf. Glad my son has more sense than that!
Do they have any GRIP planes in there? I know there was one last time Earl rapidly intensified.
My question is regarding the track, the 8pm Adiv states that Earl is located at 73.5 W and moving at 330 at 18 mph. Given that trajectory and speed Earl will arrive at 34.31 N 77.78 W in approximately 27 hours at 1100 pm EST. The forecast places the center approx. 351 degrees from Earls current location. If Earl continues 330 at 18mph, What is going to turn earl almost due North from his current location. In approximately 4 1/2 hours Earl will need to turn 360 degrees to make the forecast point missing North Carolina and it gets worse from there. 18 hours from 8pm Eastern, if Earl follows the Projected Track, He will have to turn 010 degrees to miss NC. The expected Jet Stream that is supposed to pick up Earl and Pull Him Northeast is not supposed to be in place until 11pm Eastern on Sept.2. So what am I missing?????
I would love to have that url for the bookmarks, mind sharing?
Darwin
I agree. The spokes are usually a dead giveaway to annular type storms. At least with the eye. This is very close in my opinion. Looks very similar to Isabel.
We all know it.
Earl's just the warm up for Gaston imo.
Not saying Earl isn't important and it's a really impressive storm, but it's not heading due west either.
It looks like a direct hit on Nantucket is a sronger likelihood.
I was going to ask as well :)
It looks like only a band to me at the moment.
I know what you mean. With what we have seen so far and the worst two months ahead I don't have to say much more. October and the fronts are still to come.
Yes, they have not revoked the law of natural selection, even in the US of A of the 21st Century.
Here's the real problem. There's no way to evacuate. There are only 2 bridges off Cape, the Sagamore and the Bourne. Even if they keep traffic in one direction, all four lanes going off, the little 2 lane highways to them will be backed up so far, people will be sitting ducks in their cars when the storm hits. That's why so many people just hunker down and pray.
I'll be back tomorrow. I have to work 10-4, then I have a conference call for a new job, then I have a hurricane. lol!
Or 29*N 96*W.
Intense hurricanes often undergo Eyewall cycles quite frequently. Dean in 2007 had one almost once a day, and they only lasted 6-12 hours. Earl's first eye was 15 miles wide, it only lasted about 12 hours before an outer eyewall began on radar. The san juan radar recorded the event. This eye has lasted well over 24 considering that it was yesterday when it formed, so another cycle could be starting. However, this one will likely take longer to begin due to the size of the eye.
Yup. With all that oceanic heat energy building up in the Caribbean, we will probably see another major like Earl.
As someone who lives 60 miles from the coast in GA, I concur.
.."We've only just begun"
Earl looking great tonight. Really made up for all the dry air and the EWRC it was going through.
Stay safe!!!
Quite ignorant statement :(
The Disney Wonder is going to have a rough trip back to Port Canaveral tonight!
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