Earl a Category 4 storm again
Hurricane Earl has regained Category 4 strength this afternoon, and continues on a steady northwest path towards the North Carolina coast. Recent satellite imagery shows that Earl has become more symmetrical, with improved upper-level outflow and no signs of dry air wrapping into the core. The improved appearance is probably due to lower wind shear. Latest wind shear tendency imagery from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that shear on the southwest side of Earl has fallen by about 10 knots over the past 24 hours.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Earl.
Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning shows little change to Earl's track. Thus, my write-up of the possible impacts to North Carolina, New England, and Canada in this morning's post remain unchanged. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear will remain moderate, about 15 knots, through Friday afternoon. This should allow Earl to maintain major hurricane status as it passes North Carolina early Friday morning. By Friday night, as Earl gets caught in the jet stream and accelerates to the northeast, wind shear will rise to 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane early Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.
Earl is a large hurricane, which gives it a higher potential for storm surge damage than a smaller hurricane with the same top winds. One measure of a storm's power, useful for gauging storm surge threat, is to measure the speed of the winds and multiply by the area over which those winds blow. This total is called the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Based on the storm's IKE, one can come up with a scale from 0 - 6 rating the storm's destructive power from its storm surge. A separate rating can be given to the destructive potential of the storm's winds. The IKE value of 112 Terrajoules for Earl, at 3:30pm EDT today, gives its storm surge a destructive power of 5.0 on a scale of 0 - 6. Earl's winds have a lower destructive power, 3.4 on a scale of 0 - 6. Let's hope the right front quadrant of Earl, where the main storm surge would occur, stays offshore! For comparison, the small Category 5 Hurricane Camille of 1969 had an IKE of 80 Terrajoules, and the very large Category 2 Hurricane Ike of 2008 had an IKE of 116 Terrajoules--similar to Category 3 Earl's.
Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona is struggling due to high wind shear, courtesy of strong upper-level northerly winds from Hurricane Earl's outflow. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fix at 1:29pm EDT found Fiona had weakened some, with a central pressure of 999 mb. This is a rise of 1 mb from this morning. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that shear has increased to a moderately high 15 - 20 knots this afternoon. Satellite loops show the classic signature of a tropical storm experiencing high wind shear--an exposed center of circulation, and all the heavy thunderstorms pushed to one side (the south side in this case). Martinique radar shows that the outer bands from Fiona are bringing heavy rain squalls to the same islands of the northern Lesser Antilles that were affected by Earl. Our wundermap for the northern Lesser Antilles shows no stations recorded winds over 20 mph this afternoon, though there was no reporting station on Barbuda, the island closest to Fiona.
Forecast for Fiona
Moderate wind shear and dry air should keep Fiona from attaining hurricane status over the next two days, as big brother Earl continues to bring high wind shear. The shear may be strong enough to destroy Fiona, as predicted by the NHC. However, by this weekend, Earl may pull far enough away for shear to drop and Fiona to survive. The 4 - 5 day track forecast is highly uncertain, as there is a large spread in the model solutions. It is possible Fiona may pose a threat to Bermuda on Saturday or Sunday, and the storm could wander for a week or more in the waters between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast.
Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of Fiona.
Tropical Storm Gaston forms
Tropical Storm Gaston developed enough heavy thunderstorms near its center this afternoon to get a name, and appears destined to become Hurricane Gaston by early next week. Water vapor satellite images show a large area of dry air to the north and west of Gaston, and this dry air will be the dominant inhibiting factor for development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, and perhaps fall to the low range 4 - 5 days from now. Gaston is over warm 28°C waters, and should be able to steadily intensify into a hurricane by Saturday or Sunday, as predicted by the many of the intensity models. Gaston may threaten the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Tuesday.
Next post
I'll have an update in the morning, and Dr. Rob Carver will have a late night update tonight.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Heck, I live in Tampa and I'm freaked he's this close to me!
Recon just had a bunch of contaminated reports.
Great.
While the satellite picture below is worth much more than words from me; the more knowledgeable bloggers may be able to answer you.
011500 2726N 07335W 7333 02113 9300 +213 +151 114022 024 013 002 00
If you've handled Nor'easters then you can handle Earl!
Speaking of crazies -- anyone checked a live feed of CycloneOz?
All those things quite different from surfing in the dark with an approaching hurricane...but if someone chooses to die like that, who are we to stop them?
I know he generates a bit of controversy by being a conservative Christian preacher (he wrong a Left Behind-esque novel about the end of days), and he was an unrepentant wishcaster (he'd wear a snowflake pin any time snow was in the forecast, and he was always the one forecaster in the area who lent credence to the solution that resulted in a major hurricane striking the area). But neither are particularly new developments.
Hmmm ... come to think of it, the Revelations fiction writing and his doomsday weather forecasts might be linked ...
Yup.
Forgot who did the math on the eye diameter and the distance from the eye on the hurricane force winds, but if it were me and I saw this big honking baby headed towards NC I would get the hell out of the OBX or the sound side. No way I'd want this dude - Gustav was bad enough and I was in Baton Rouge (70 miles inland)!!
If you look at the progression of storms and the sub tropical ridge we see a pattern of systems making it farther and farther West. The set up in the Central Atlantic has changed with the high going from being centered off to the NE, which allows for recurving East of or near to the Caribbean, to being zonal. This is the type of set up we have seen in years like 2004 and 2005.
I looked at several computer runs earlier today and this evening and they insist on having the ridge drive Gaston into the Caribbean. When you see that type of consensus with the models you need to pay attention to that.
LOL - now that is a different kind of crazy.
wow
My lady friend lives in Zephyrhills. Since 2005, she is TERRIFIED of hurricanes, so I can understand your uneasiness.
Yeah, I'm in Charleston!! Not even a TS watch...nothing! The authorities are putting alot of faith in the forecast. NHC has done a nice job with this one though!! Right on target so far!
Nothing to support that at the moment.
Live a little north of norfolk, 30 or so miles, but we loved Jon Cash, and are going to miss him and the snowflake pin. I Hope WVEC or WTKR pick him up immediately.
This is news, it will churn up cooler waters.
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