Earl a Category 4 storm again
Hurricane Earl has regained Category 4 strength this afternoon, and continues on a steady northwest path towards the North Carolina coast. Recent satellite imagery shows that Earl has become more symmetrical, with improved upper-level outflow and no signs of dry air wrapping into the core. The improved appearance is probably due to lower wind shear. Latest wind shear tendency imagery from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that shear on the southwest side of Earl has fallen by about 10 knots over the past 24 hours.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Earl.
Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning shows little change to Earl's track. Thus, my write-up of the possible impacts to North Carolina, New England, and Canada in this morning's post remain unchanged. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear will remain moderate, about 15 knots, through Friday afternoon. This should allow Earl to maintain major hurricane status as it passes North Carolina early Friday morning. By Friday night, as Earl gets caught in the jet stream and accelerates to the northeast, wind shear will rise to 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane early Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.
Earl is a large hurricane, which gives it a higher potential for storm surge damage than a smaller hurricane with the same top winds. One measure of a storm's power, useful for gauging storm surge threat, is to measure the speed of the winds and multiply by the area over which those winds blow. This total is called the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Based on the storm's IKE, one can come up with a scale from 0 - 6 rating the storm's destructive power from its storm surge. A separate rating can be given to the destructive potential of the storm's winds. The IKE value of 112 Terrajoules for Earl, at 3:30pm EDT today, gives its storm surge a destructive power of 5.0 on a scale of 0 - 6. Earl's winds have a lower destructive power, 3.4 on a scale of 0 - 6. Let's hope the right front quadrant of Earl, where the main storm surge would occur, stays offshore! For comparison, the small Category 5 Hurricane Camille of 1969 had an IKE of 80 Terrajoules, and the very large Category 2 Hurricane Ike of 2008 had an IKE of 116 Terrajoules--similar to Category 3 Earl's.
Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona is struggling due to high wind shear, courtesy of strong upper-level northerly winds from Hurricane Earl's outflow. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fix at 1:29pm EDT found Fiona had weakened some, with a central pressure of 999 mb. This is a rise of 1 mb from this morning. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that shear has increased to a moderately high 15 - 20 knots this afternoon. Satellite loops show the classic signature of a tropical storm experiencing high wind shear--an exposed center of circulation, and all the heavy thunderstorms pushed to one side (the south side in this case). Martinique radar shows that the outer bands from Fiona are bringing heavy rain squalls to the same islands of the northern Lesser Antilles that were affected by Earl. Our wundermap for the northern Lesser Antilles shows no stations recorded winds over 20 mph this afternoon, though there was no reporting station on Barbuda, the island closest to Fiona.
Forecast for Fiona
Moderate wind shear and dry air should keep Fiona from attaining hurricane status over the next two days, as big brother Earl continues to bring high wind shear. The shear may be strong enough to destroy Fiona, as predicted by the NHC. However, by this weekend, Earl may pull far enough away for shear to drop and Fiona to survive. The 4 - 5 day track forecast is highly uncertain, as there is a large spread in the model solutions. It is possible Fiona may pose a threat to Bermuda on Saturday or Sunday, and the storm could wander for a week or more in the waters between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast.
Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of Fiona.
Tropical Storm Gaston forms
Tropical Storm Gaston developed enough heavy thunderstorms near its center this afternoon to get a name, and appears destined to become Hurricane Gaston by early next week. Water vapor satellite images show a large area of dry air to the north and west of Gaston, and this dry air will be the dominant inhibiting factor for development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, and perhaps fall to the low range 4 - 5 days from now. Gaston is over warm 28°C waters, and should be able to steadily intensify into a hurricane by Saturday or Sunday, as predicted by the many of the intensity models. Gaston may threaten the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Tuesday.
Next post
I'll have an update in the morning, and Dr. Rob Carver will have a late night update tonight.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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This is news, it will churn up cooler waters.
Has anyone here run the SLOSH storm surge model for Earl?
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OMG... LOL
LOL
the pressure surely does...
It's REALLY getting crazy now. Earl could be a monster. Really interested to find out what the 11pm advisory will say.
Gaston will be very interesting to monitor.
this what they dont need
Post 1325
Agreed, and with Earl's forward speed, that will negate some of the most intense winds since the coast will be on the west side of the eye.
Also keeping the wave train active through a lot of next week.
Good idea! Volunteers?!
there's time for people to get off the cape assuming some are already starting, except if it's anything like rita in houston/galveston, there won't be enough gasoline or open gas stations, so many cars may stall and clog the roads. hopefully, fuel trucks are on their way to the cape now and people will be encouraged and able to get gas before they get on the road.
JMHO
wow that eye is damn near perfect
If they played by that...
Alex would have been a Cat 4.
Nothing to support 150 mph surface winds? Well, Miss Piggy is flying through the eyewalls at roughly 7,000ft - and paying for it by getting fiercely bound around. If, at that level, it's registering winds of 137kts, then it's not too hard to imagine surface level winds of 130kts at some point this evening. We're not there yet, but with a rapidly intensifying storm, it's not an unreasonable projection.
well have they moved into the North eastern eye wall?
honestly, though, can anyone tell me if we're trending towards an OBX strike or away (models, general thinking... ANYTHING would be appreciated).
If I wake up in the morning and the winds have responded to that drop in pressure, imma gonna pee my pants.
Who?
Hurricane Earl
In that shot the eye is larger than Lake O.
Quite intimidating.
But the price of fish is going to skyrocket...
895mb 60° (from the ENE) 173 knots (199 mph)
The structure is there for a run at CAT5. Doubting the sustainability due to the surrounding atmosphere.
I agree, I think a peak intensity of 140 mph/121 knots at 11 sounds reasonable followed by gradual weakening.
Yes it has, they are finding 10 knots of extra wind in a quadrant which should not be stronger. They need to do a pass NW to SE and SW to NE.
000
URNT15 KWBC 020131
NOAA3 WX07A EARL9 HDOB 37 20100902
012130 2753N 07335W 7645 02119 //// +158 //// 103106 108 070 006 21
012200 2755N 07335W 7684 02093 9764 +160 +163 104105 106 070 008 00
012230 2757N 07335W 7693 02097 //// +163 //// 106103 105 069 010 21
012300 2800N 07335W 7696 02105 //// +163 //// 107100 101 067 009 21
012330 2802N 07335W 7701 02111 //// +165 //// 108095 099 065 009 21
012400 2804N 07335W 7730 02086 9812 +165 +170 108094 096 064 008 00
012430 2806N 07335W 7747 02080 //// +159 //// 108101 105 063 014 21
012500 2808N 07335W 7733 02100 //// +155 //// 104103 105 063 016 21
012530 2810N 07335W 7737 02103 //// +159 //// 103099 101 062 011 21
012600 2812N 07335W 7740 02112 //// +161 //// 104102 102 059 010 21
012630 2814N 07335W 7755 02104 //// +162 //// 106098 101 060 010 21
012700 2816N 07335W 7763 02103 //// +159 //// 106099 100 057 011 21
012730 2819N 07335W 7777 02094 //// +162 //// 106096 097 059 008 21
012800 2821N 07335W 7780 02098 //// +161 //// 107093 094 054 007 21
012830 2823N 07335W 7756 02129 //// +160 //// 106093 094 054 006 21
012900 2825N 07335W 7783 02109 //// +159 //// 106093 096 050 004 21
012930 2827N 07335W 7834 02058 //// +158 //// 108089 090 053 005 21
013000 2829N 07335W 7828 02068 //// +157 //// 107089 093 051 008 21
013030 2831N 07335W 7827 02077 //// +158 //// 105090 093 049 007 21
013100 2833N 07335W 7819 02086 //// +157 //// 104091 092 047 008 21
Wilma was a Cat 6!
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