Earl a Category 4 storm again
Hurricane Earl has regained Category 4 strength this afternoon, and continues on a steady northwest path towards the North Carolina coast. Recent satellite imagery shows that Earl has become more symmetrical, with improved upper-level outflow and no signs of dry air wrapping into the core. The improved appearance is probably due to lower wind shear. Latest wind shear tendency imagery from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that shear on the southwest side of Earl has fallen by about 10 knots over the past 24 hours.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Earl.
Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning shows little change to Earl's track. Thus, my write-up of the possible impacts to North Carolina, New England, and Canada in this morning's post remain unchanged. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear will remain moderate, about 15 knots, through Friday afternoon. This should allow Earl to maintain major hurricane status as it passes North Carolina early Friday morning. By Friday night, as Earl gets caught in the jet stream and accelerates to the northeast, wind shear will rise to 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane early Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.
Earl is a large hurricane, which gives it a higher potential for storm surge damage than a smaller hurricane with the same top winds. One measure of a storm's power, useful for gauging storm surge threat, is to measure the speed of the winds and multiply by the area over which those winds blow. This total is called the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Based on the storm's IKE, one can come up with a scale from 0 - 6 rating the storm's destructive power from its storm surge. A separate rating can be given to the destructive potential of the storm's winds. The IKE value of 112 Terrajoules for Earl, at 3:30pm EDT today, gives its storm surge a destructive power of 5.0 on a scale of 0 - 6. Earl's winds have a lower destructive power, 3.4 on a scale of 0 - 6. Let's hope the right front quadrant of Earl, where the main storm surge would occur, stays offshore! For comparison, the small Category 5 Hurricane Camille of 1969 had an IKE of 80 Terrajoules, and the very large Category 2 Hurricane Ike of 2008 had an IKE of 116 Terrajoules--similar to Category 3 Earl's.
Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona is struggling due to high wind shear, courtesy of strong upper-level northerly winds from Hurricane Earl's outflow. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fix at 1:29pm EDT found Fiona had weakened some, with a central pressure of 999 mb. This is a rise of 1 mb from this morning. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that shear has increased to a moderately high 15 - 20 knots this afternoon. Satellite loops show the classic signature of a tropical storm experiencing high wind shear--an exposed center of circulation, and all the heavy thunderstorms pushed to one side (the south side in this case). Martinique radar shows that the outer bands from Fiona are bringing heavy rain squalls to the same islands of the northern Lesser Antilles that were affected by Earl. Our wundermap for the northern Lesser Antilles shows no stations recorded winds over 20 mph this afternoon, though there was no reporting station on Barbuda, the island closest to Fiona.
Forecast for Fiona
Moderate wind shear and dry air should keep Fiona from attaining hurricane status over the next two days, as big brother Earl continues to bring high wind shear. The shear may be strong enough to destroy Fiona, as predicted by the NHC. However, by this weekend, Earl may pull far enough away for shear to drop and Fiona to survive. The 4 - 5 day track forecast is highly uncertain, as there is a large spread in the model solutions. It is possible Fiona may pose a threat to Bermuda on Saturday or Sunday, and the storm could wander for a week or more in the waters between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast.
Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of Fiona.
Tropical Storm Gaston forms
Tropical Storm Gaston developed enough heavy thunderstorms near its center this afternoon to get a name, and appears destined to become Hurricane Gaston by early next week. Water vapor satellite images show a large area of dry air to the north and west of Gaston, and this dry air will be the dominant inhibiting factor for development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, and perhaps fall to the low range 4 - 5 days from now. Gaston is over warm 28°C waters, and should be able to steadily intensify into a hurricane by Saturday or Sunday, as predicted by the many of the intensity models. Gaston may threaten the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Tuesday.
Next post
I'll have an update in the morning, and Dr. Rob Carver will have a late night update tonight.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 — Blog Index
Agreed! Something I DON'T want to experience again.
Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
951mb 115° (from the ESE) 113 knots (130 mph)
949mb 120° (from the ESE) 105 knots (121 mph)
948mb 120° (from the ESE) 111 knots (128 mph)
946mb 125° (from the SE) 116 knots (133 mph)
945mb 125° (from the SE) 124 knots (143 mph)
944mb 120° (from the ESE) 142 knots (163 mph)
942mb 120° (from the ESE) 143 knots (165 mph)
939mb 120° (from the ESE) 117 knots (135 mph)
937mb 120° (from the ESE) 111 knots (128 mph)
934mb 125° (from the SE) 122 knots (140 mph)
932mb 130° (from the SE) 122 knots (140 mph)
929mb 130° (from the SE) 143 knots (165 mph)
927mb 130° (from the SE) 140 knots (161 mph)
924mb 130° (from the SE) 148 knots (170 mph)
919mb 130° (from the SE) 144 knots (166 mph)
915mb 125° (from the SE) 150 knots (173 mph)
909mb 135° (from the SE) 141 knots (162 mph)
905mb 140° (from the SE) 154 knots (177 mph)
902mb 140° (from the SE) 143 knots (165 mph)
899mb 135° (from the SE) 143 knots (165 mph)
896mb 135° (from the SE) 135 knots (155 mph)
891mb 140° (from the SE) 145 knots (167 mph)
887mb 140° (from the SE) 144 knots (166 mph)
883mb 145° (from the SE) 138 knots (159 mph)
876mb 140° (from the SE) 141 knots (162 mph)
871mb 145° (from the SE) 131 knots (151 mph)
867mb 140° (from the SE) 144 knots (166 mph)
864mb 150° (from the SSE) 131 knots (151 mph)
861mb 150° (from the SSE) 144 knots (166 mph)
639mb 185° (from the S) 131 knots (151 mph)
634mb 175° (from the S) 119 knots (137 mph)
631mb 180° (from the S) 129 knots (148 mph)
Earl
I hope the home is on stilts and your car is fully insured.
Speaking of crazies -- anyone checked a live feed of CycloneOz?
He just crossed onto Roanoke Island - not quite to the Outer Banks island yet, and is stopping to top off his gas tank.
Where can we fing that link for Cyclone Oz? Sorry for the repost question, but where is his site/link, thanks again, anyone.?
Do you have any kids with you?
Be careful! I know some folks down there on vacation. They're not leaving unless mandatory evac is required. They're on Rt 12.
Gaston looks better by the hour.
Global Hawk Plan of the Day
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Global Hawk (Times in PDT)
Wednesday,Sep 1 - Thursday,Sep 2
For flying EARL on Thursday-24 Hour Flight
1900 T-0 Meeting
1930 PIs Show at GHOC
2000 Engine Start
2100 Take off
(~7 hour transit)
(+3 hour time change to EARL)
0700 Local time(...
Have you looked at the latest satellite image of Earl ?. Probably not.
The cold front that followed wilma was crazy, in the mid 50's that night.
The nightmare for the NHC isn't crying wolf; it's failing to warn of a potentially catastrophic event in sufficient time for political leaders to act on those warnings. When Earl was a Cat 3, the NHC was willing to stand by its models. When they elevated it to Cat 4 at 5PM, even though the tracks hadn't much changed, they issued all sorts of warnings and watches - you don't mess around with a Cat 4 storm. And whatever margin of error remained has now entirely vanished. We're going to see the tropical storm warnings upgraded to hurricane warnings, and the TS watches switched over to hurricane watches. The track is going to be bent a little west, just to put the fear of Earl in people, so they'll take the necessary precautions. And, yeah, we'll see the intensity upgraded - 130kts wouldn't shock me, although 125kts is more likely.
It could be fun...or it could be swimming with the fishes. I wish you luck though!
Kewl.
No offense, but you're crazy. I've only been through Ike, but if you are that close to the beach... yeah, I would be on the way out right now.
they found CAT 5 winds on the north eastern eye wall apparently
6.2 / 941.8mb/119.8kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.5 6.5
If they don't sound the alarm at 11 PM, they won't. It'll be too late.
And about Earl- All I can say is WOW. I sure hope he stays offshore...wobbles one way or the other will be significant now that he's so close. Let's hope for wobbles to the right, although he is wobbling left currently...
Hurricane Warning
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
957 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2010
VIRGINIA PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...CURRITUCK SOUND AND ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NAUTICAL MILES
ANZ658-020930-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT TO
20 NM-
957 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2010
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
.OVERNIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT...MAINLY E SWELL WITH
A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 14 SECONDS.
.THU...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT...BUILDING TO 7
TO 10 FT. DOMINANT PERIOD OF 15 SECONDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 TO 35 KT...INCREASING TO 40 TO 45 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 65 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT...BUILDING TO
13 TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...NW WINDS 40 TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 KT...BECOMING
W 25 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT...SUBSIDING TO 7
TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE MORNING.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT...BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO
6 FT...SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.
.SUN...N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING E 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
RIP FIONA!!
Or it could be scarier than heck, and a recipe for PTSD.
becoming perfectly circular..
and still going up
Say what!!! 905mb? 5 more mb and it's named afetr my screen name!!!
Swimming with the fishes = death
Its the Impact that counts always,,K was a Cat 3 with a 30 ft Surge and well,thats not the best indicator of impact the SSS.
Its designed for wind loading on structures,,not surge with wave action.
Viewing: 1651 - 1701
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 — Blog Index