Earl a Category 4 storm again
Hurricane Earl has regained Category 4 strength this afternoon, and continues on a steady northwest path towards the North Carolina coast. Recent satellite imagery shows that Earl has become more symmetrical, with improved upper-level outflow and no signs of dry air wrapping into the core. The improved appearance is probably due to lower wind shear. Latest wind shear tendency imagery from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that shear on the southwest side of Earl has fallen by about 10 knots over the past 24 hours.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Earl.
Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning shows little change to Earl's track. Thus, my write-up of the possible impacts to North Carolina, New England, and Canada in this morning's post remain unchanged. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear will remain moderate, about 15 knots, through Friday afternoon. This should allow Earl to maintain major hurricane status as it passes North Carolina early Friday morning. By Friday night, as Earl gets caught in the jet stream and accelerates to the northeast, wind shear will rise to 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane early Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.
Earl is a large hurricane, which gives it a higher potential for storm surge damage than a smaller hurricane with the same top winds. One measure of a storm's power, useful for gauging storm surge threat, is to measure the speed of the winds and multiply by the area over which those winds blow. This total is called the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Based on the storm's IKE, one can come up with a scale from 0 - 6 rating the storm's destructive power from its storm surge. A separate rating can be given to the destructive potential of the storm's winds. The IKE value of 112 Terrajoules for Earl, at 3:30pm EDT today, gives its storm surge a destructive power of 5.0 on a scale of 0 - 6. Earl's winds have a lower destructive power, 3.4 on a scale of 0 - 6. Let's hope the right front quadrant of Earl, where the main storm surge would occur, stays offshore! For comparison, the small Category 5 Hurricane Camille of 1969 had an IKE of 80 Terrajoules, and the very large Category 2 Hurricane Ike of 2008 had an IKE of 116 Terrajoules--similar to Category 3 Earl's.
Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona is struggling due to high wind shear, courtesy of strong upper-level northerly winds from Hurricane Earl's outflow. The latest Hurricane Hunter center fix at 1:29pm EDT found Fiona had weakened some, with a central pressure of 999 mb. This is a rise of 1 mb from this morning. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows that shear has increased to a moderately high 15 - 20 knots this afternoon. Satellite loops show the classic signature of a tropical storm experiencing high wind shear--an exposed center of circulation, and all the heavy thunderstorms pushed to one side (the south side in this case). Martinique radar shows that the outer bands from Fiona are bringing heavy rain squalls to the same islands of the northern Lesser Antilles that were affected by Earl. Our wundermap for the northern Lesser Antilles shows no stations recorded winds over 20 mph this afternoon, though there was no reporting station on Barbuda, the island closest to Fiona.
Forecast for Fiona
Moderate wind shear and dry air should keep Fiona from attaining hurricane status over the next two days, as big brother Earl continues to bring high wind shear. The shear may be strong enough to destroy Fiona, as predicted by the NHC. However, by this weekend, Earl may pull far enough away for shear to drop and Fiona to survive. The 4 - 5 day track forecast is highly uncertain, as there is a large spread in the model solutions. It is possible Fiona may pose a threat to Bermuda on Saturday or Sunday, and the storm could wander for a week or more in the waters between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast.
Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of Fiona.
Tropical Storm Gaston forms
Tropical Storm Gaston developed enough heavy thunderstorms near its center this afternoon to get a name, and appears destined to become Hurricane Gaston by early next week. Water vapor satellite images show a large area of dry air to the north and west of Gaston, and this dry air will be the dominant inhibiting factor for development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, and perhaps fall to the low range 4 - 5 days from now. Gaston is over warm 28°C waters, and should be able to steadily intensify into a hurricane by Saturday or Sunday, as predicted by the many of the intensity models. Gaston may threaten the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Tuesday.
Next post
I'll have an update in the morning, and Dr. Rob Carver will have a late night update tonight.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Don't even think about staying if the roads can flood quickly and strand you there. I've been thru lots of these storms and they are nothing to play with.
Link
Been debating that all night.
Good that you are considering to go... but I would be leaving now. Not waiting for the mandatory evac that you know is coming.
(look at Galveston with Ike... Galveston's mayor waited WAY too long to order the mandatory evac, and several people died because of it)
I haven't been here since tracking Hurricane Ike with you all. Earl is starting to show characteristics of a Cat 5. This "Fish" storm is starting to put on a show.
Yup. Also, write your name, address, and Social Security number on a card, and place it in a plastic bag somewhere on your person. They'll need it to identify the body, because that ocean can do some nasty things to corpses.
If you haven't figured it out - GET OUT OF THERE
His eye is there... I need to find something with the SHIPS text.
If you're staying, be prepared to be totally on your own. Nobody is coming to the rescue in a storm like this. If you're staying on a beach that's getting hit - not to be morbid, but write your ss # on your arm or leg, just in case. And as far as supplies: cash (credits cards don't work without electricity), at least 20 gallons of water, baby wipes, first aid kit, hand cranked flashlights (or lots of batteries), canned food, hand sanitizer, paper plates and plastic utensils (you must assume your water will be contaminated), bleach, tarps, valium, good red wine, shelf stable bacon, milk and cheese. The milk is called Parmalat, and can be found in Walmart near the baking stuff - it's in a box. What else? A gun. Dogs pack up and get distressed and bite frequently after storms. Protect yourself. There are a million things... but hopefully you just stay out of harm's way, unlss you're in an elevated fortress and have some experience with hurricanes.
After what happened with Katrina and Ike if anyone stays, it's on them. People will say anything for attention. It's not brave, cool, or fun to ride out a killer storm. The only thing one proves by doing it, is their level of stupidity. I'm not talking about people who HAVE to stay but the ones that chose to stay.
The OBX are a terrible location to be stranded. Even in good weather it is a long ride across the bridges, to get to the mainland. Imagine waiting until the last minute to leave Key West FL. You are seriously isolated out there.
You should listen, especially if you are not from here. Kill Devil Hills between the beach road and bypass? Are you perhaps near Hayman or Archdale St?
I fully expect six feet of water up to the bypass (hwy 158) if the storm takes the 5pm forecast track.
If you don't live on the OBX you really really really need to leave, and those of us who DO live in zones not under mandatory evacuation (yet) should all have bags packed and be ready to evaluate things at the 5am advisory (i do).
It's a perpetual feature on the south pole of saturn that resembles a hurricane. Data from Cassini shows that it has an eyelike feature more than 2,000 miles in diameter and an eyewall towering over 40 miles. But that's already beyond the point lol
You're welcome. I've had the vicarious thrill of being on a few chases. Passionate and excitable indeed. But...I hope he doesn't put himself in harm's way :/
Katrina survivor.
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
The Carteret County Emergency Manager tells WITN those evacuations have been ordered for Pine Knoll Shores, Emerald Isle, Indian Beach, and Atlantic Beach.
The mandatory evacuations are set to start Thursday morning at 5a.m.
Beginning at 5:00 pm on Thursday, 2 September, access to these municipalities and Bogue Banks will be restricted to essential personnel only.
The leading edge is though... passed through earlier.
Miami... are HH inbound?
If you don't see some good news on the track by 1 am get out of dodge while the traffic is lite.
Thank you.
"Annular hurricanes also tend to persist, even when encountering environmental conditions which easily dissipate most other hurricanes. Forecasters have difficulty predicting the behavior of annular hurricanes; they are a recently recognized phenomenon, and as such, little is known about their tendencies. Because of this, they can be more dangerous than typical hurricanes."
Hope it's not annular!
Best of luck,
Ashley in New Orleans
Could be mesovortices protruding from the eyewall which is pretty common in intense hurricanes, but you're right, Earl has most likely peaked in intensity and should be starting a slow weakening soon.
Uh yea. Epic fail. Seriously. Why would you even risk it? I guess Katrina was just another story on the TV for you, huh? Didn't get to see the photos of people clinging for their lives on the top of their roofs, or clinging to a tree surrounded by water. You want to know their mentality before hand? ...."I'm going to ride it out, we've been through this before".
Katrina was a Cat 3 on landfall. The East Coast is dealing with a very powerful Cat 4 and there is still room for more growth. If you think you can ride out 50 foot waves, well, yea. Lord help you.
I believe that is old. Check #1819
Good spot!
This is the eye:
This image is almost 2 hours old
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