Earl significantly weakening
Hurricane Earl has significantly weakened today. The Hurricane Hunters found a central pressure of 948 mb at 4:06pm EDT, a large 20 mb rise from the 928 mb pressure of the 5am EDT advisory this morning. The aircraft found flight level winds at 10,000 feet of 124 mph, which translates to surface winds at the boundary between Category 2 and Category 3 strength, 112 mph. However, the SFMR instrument on the aircraft saw top surface winds of just 98 mph. Satellite imagery shows that Earl is no longer as impressive--the eye is less distinct, and the hurricane has a lopsided appearance. Dry air and wind shear of 15 - 20 knots have chewed away at Earl's southwest side.
Earl has made its turn to the north, and is headed for a close brush with North Carolina's Outer Banks. Rain bands from the hurricane have reached the coast, as seen on long-range Cape Hatteras radar.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Earl.
Forecast for Earl
If you're wondering about your chances for receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds from Earl, I highly recommend the NHC wind probability product. The highest odds of hurricane force winds for any location on the U.S. coast are for Nantucket--25%. Yarmouth, Nova Scotia has the highest odds for Canada, 15%, and Cape Hatteras has the highest odds for North Carolina, 19%. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track, and the latest SHIPS model forecast also shows no surprises. Wind shear will remain moderately high, 15 - 20 knots, through Friday morning. This should allow Earl to maintain Category 2 hurricane status as it passes North Carolina early Friday morning. By Friday night, as Earl gets caught in the jet stream and accelerates to the northeast, wind shear will rise to 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 1 hurricane early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm early Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada. The expected impacts on the coast should somewhat less than what I outlined in this morning's blog post, because of Earl's recent weakening.
Figure 2. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 3:30pm EDT Thursday, September 2, 2010. Note the asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 18 mph to the north at the time. The highest contour has top winds of 80 kt (92 mph) surrounding the "+" on the NNE side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds in the left front quadrant (on the west side) were just 75 knots (87 mph.) The asymmetry is not nearly as great as what was observed at 9:30am this morning. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.
Fiona
There is little change in the forecast for Tropical Storm Fiona, which is struggling due to high wind shear, courtesy of strong upper-level northerly winds from Hurricane Earl's outflow. Satellite loops show the classic signature of a tropical storm experiencing high wind shear--an exposed center of circulation, and all the heavy thunderstorms pushed to one side (the south side in this case). Wind shear from Earl and dry air should keep Fiona from attaining hurricane status, and the shear may be strong enough to destroy Fiona.
Gaston dies
Tropical Depression Gaston lost its battle with dry air. Satellite imagery shows that Gaston no longer has a surface circulation, and NHC has declared the system dead. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days, so it is possible Gaston could regenerate.
Figure 3. Afternoon satellite image of Gaston (left) and the latest tropical wave to move off of Africa (right).
New tropical wave
A large and well-organized tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa last night, and this wave has the potential to follow the pattern set by Danielle, Earl, Fiona, and Gaston. Several models do develop this system into a tropical depression early next week, and NHC is giving the wave a 10% chance of developing by Saturday afternoon. Wind shear is currently too high, 30 - 40 knots, for the wave to develop. However, once the wave reaches a point a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands two days from now, wind shear will drop and development will be more likely.
There is also a tropical wave over Central Africa which will emerge from the coast in 4 - 5 days. Some of the models are predicting development of this wave, 7 or so days from now.
Links to follow today
Cape Hatteras weather
Cape Hatteras radar
Next post
I'll have an update in the morning, and Dr. Rob Carver will have a late-night update.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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For now.
Haven't heard a peep
sigh
Loop
That is a really silly thing to say. Thank goodness things are working out the way they are. If Earl had not turned there could have been a lot of serious damage and potential for loss of life. No disappointment AT ALL!!!
1470. stormpetrol 9:54 PM GMT on September 02, 2010
well i really hope gaston is gone for good, but i have a feeling in day or 2 he'll return.
Action: Quote | Modify Comment
http://thextremeweather.com/xtreme-weather-cam.html
It's gonna have to if it wants to regenerate.
Dr Masters, thank you for the update and new blog.
Oh well, we got to get thur Earl's little trip up the coast then we can breath easy for a while.
Feast or Famine.. easy come easy go...
one minute 4 named storms next minute nothing!
LOL
j/k, no lectures please.
Glad to see Earl is calming down a little before he does great damage to the folks along the Eastern Seaboard states and New England.
Enjoy your Thursday.
There are still many people who will be impacted by this storm and yet we have some people who actually have the nerve to say the threat is over
If you are lurking and looking for information, look at what the NHC and your local agencies are saying and do not trust the posts of those who say the threat is over.
I hope everyone in the path of this system has taken it seriously and are safe. It is you that we are most concerned about and your safety is most important.
Quoting KanKunKid:
Thanks, I needed that.
No, it was as if your comment was saying, thanks to the NHC forecast, you were spared Earl's wrath. I mean, the NHC is good, real good! But they're not that good. Of course, I could have misunderstood what you were saying, but my first reaction was Pffft! Care to elucidate?
As far as NC, the NHC were on point with Earl when it counted, they may not have been exact but neither was ANYONE else, if you could do better, by all means, do so but right now I still thank GOD for the NHC. Finding faults in forecast points that were eithier a wee bit east or a wee bit west didnt cost any lives and at the end of that day, thats what really mattters!
WOW! That is interesting Levi. Do you think Earl could complete the eye and strengthen again?
Kim Jong Ill is too busy drinking Hennessey to issue a report.
You can get it by selecting the Wilmington, NC radar station from the Wunderground Radar Page.
Good point!
I said I was "j/k! no lectures please"
In no way did I say the coast was clear.. I actually said we have to see "Earl" thru his little trip up the New England coast.
No Storm is "harmless"...
+1
He may look better tonight if the new eye wall can take over and become organized, but because of the dry air and wind shear I doubt any significant strengthening will happen again, and Earl looks to be on the downward spiral that comes with recurvature. That said, he's still very large and very dangerous.
Typhoon Kompasu struck the South Korean capital, downing power lines and causing transport chaos.
At least three people were killed and dozens more injured in the storm - the strongest to hit Seoul in 15 years.
More than 120 flights were cancelled and power cuts hit major parts of the subway network.
Typhoon Kompasu made landfall in South Korea early on Thursday at Ganghwa Island, before passing to the north-east of Seoul.
One man was killed after being hit by a flying roof tile and another died after a tree branch fell and hit him.
A man in his 70s was electrocuted, the National Emergency Management Agency said.
Utility poles and trees were knocked down in the capital and hospitals were full of people injured after being hit by flying glass, Yonhap news agency said.
It was not directed at you, I never even saw your post
Radar confirms:
Storms that stay 50 miles offshore don't make that big of a storm surge.
Exactly!!
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TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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