Earl significantly weakening
Hurricane Earl has significantly weakened today. The Hurricane Hunters found a central pressure of 948 mb at 4:06pm EDT, a large 20 mb rise from the 928 mb pressure of the 5am EDT advisory this morning. The aircraft found flight level winds at 10,000 feet of 124 mph, which translates to surface winds at the boundary between Category 2 and Category 3 strength, 112 mph. However, the SFMR instrument on the aircraft saw top surface winds of just 98 mph. Satellite imagery shows that Earl is no longer as impressive--the eye is less distinct, and the hurricane has a lopsided appearance. Dry air and wind shear of 15 - 20 knots have chewed away at Earl's southwest side.
Earl has made its turn to the north, and is headed for a close brush with North Carolina's Outer Banks. Rain bands from the hurricane have reached the coast, as seen on long-range Cape Hatteras radar.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Earl.
Forecast for Earl
If you're wondering about your chances for receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds from Earl, I highly recommend the NHC wind probability product. The highest odds of hurricane force winds for any location on the U.S. coast are for Nantucket--25%. Yarmouth, Nova Scotia has the highest odds for Canada, 15%, and Cape Hatteras has the highest odds for North Carolina, 19%. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track, and the latest SHIPS model forecast also shows no surprises. Wind shear will remain moderately high, 15 - 20 knots, through Friday morning. This should allow Earl to maintain Category 2 hurricane status as it passes North Carolina early Friday morning. By Friday night, as Earl gets caught in the jet stream and accelerates to the northeast, wind shear will rise to 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 1 hurricane early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm early Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada. The expected impacts on the coast should somewhat less than what I outlined in this morning's blog post, because of Earl's recent weakening.
Figure 2. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 3:30pm EDT Thursday, September 2, 2010. Note the asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 18 mph to the north at the time. The highest contour has top winds of 80 kt (92 mph) surrounding the "+" on the NNE side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds in the left front quadrant (on the west side) were just 75 knots (87 mph.) The asymmetry is not nearly as great as what was observed at 9:30am this morning. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.
Fiona
There is little change in the forecast for Tropical Storm Fiona, which is struggling due to high wind shear, courtesy of strong upper-level northerly winds from Hurricane Earl's outflow. Satellite loops show the classic signature of a tropical storm experiencing high wind shear--an exposed center of circulation, and all the heavy thunderstorms pushed to one side (the south side in this case). Wind shear from Earl and dry air should keep Fiona from attaining hurricane status, and the shear may be strong enough to destroy Fiona.
Gaston dies
Tropical Depression Gaston lost its battle with dry air. Satellite imagery shows that Gaston no longer has a surface circulation, and NHC has declared the system dead. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days, so it is possible Gaston could regenerate.
Figure 3. Afternoon satellite image of Gaston (left) and the latest tropical wave to move off of Africa (right).
New tropical wave
A large and well-organized tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa last night, and this wave has the potential to follow the pattern set by Danielle, Earl, Fiona, and Gaston. Several models do develop this system into a tropical depression early next week, and NHC is giving the wave a 10% chance of developing by Saturday afternoon. Wind shear is currently too high, 30 - 40 knots, for the wave to develop. However, once the wave reaches a point a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands two days from now, wind shear will drop and development will be more likely.
There is also a tropical wave over Central Africa which will emerge from the coast in 4 - 5 days. Some of the models are predicting development of this wave, 7 or so days from now.
Links to follow today
Cape Hatteras weather
Cape Hatteras radar
Next post
I'll have an update in the morning, and Dr. Rob Carver will have a late-night update.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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The sun usually does look like a fireball.
No idea on that one. I just went to wikipedia for the initial question. Venus is pretty bright and colorful, though. Almost looks like big lit up space station. Really really, bright.
Looks like Earl is maintaining its Northward motion, weakening slightly, and staying East of 75W at this time. Barring any dramatic movement to the west, a direct hit on the OBX seems less likely by the hour. Next major potential impact to be watched closely will be from Long Island to the East Coast of Maine, then, of course, Nova Scotia after. that. from
That didn't take long.
if he is speaking french it is le urricane.
watching the dolphins and cowboys right now 13-10 cowboys winning........your quote its true
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
There was some kind of brou-ha a few years ago over the Gamecock's masot. Animal rights types wanted the spurs removed from the fighting cock's feet. Not sure whatever happened - probably nothing. Very few people nowadays have seen a live cockfight. It's a verrrry backwoods and underground thing. But every now and then I'll read in the paper about a fighting location discovered, and the roosters confiscated.
You know, it is very possible they may just have not switched it over. We'll see I guess.
According to a September 2010 star chart I just looked at, it should be Jupiter.
Gaston is Dead?
Thats good news.
Hope he does'nt come back.
That would be Spooky, man.
Ok I am splitting hairs here but the simple addition of the word
EVENTUALLY nailed it would have made that post more palatable.
some things can barely keep themselves going for more than 36 hrs, and then we have 2 Cat 4s in a row.
bizzarro world, man. and it's faaaaaaar from over.
Gaston avec les amis bientôt.
Jupiter rises in the East about 9:30pm US Central time.
My other hobby is amateur astronomy.
Venus, Mars & Saturn are visible just above the western horizon right after sunset and Jupiter, Uranus & Neptune rise in the east shortly after sunset. Of all of those, Venus & Saturn are the brightest in the west right now, with Saturn closest to the sun. In the east, Jupiter is quite bright.
To keep this on topic, I've been following all the talk about Earl from a safe distance here in Oregon because my daughter just moved back to the Philly area. You never know with these coastal storms might do - I remember Hazel when I was in grade school!
There are fools born every minute....
Gaston has got me a little on edge.
Is it me or was Earl slightly port of the models.
Especially in 2004 when the storms were three weeks apart. I remember just getting my power back, life was starting to get back to normal, then de-ja-vu.
Yeah, maybe tomorrow, but if it happens tonight I would be extremely surprised.
yes
yes
ALREADY ???
this has got to be Bad Mojo....
He was fakin' it??
Either that or your boat is extreeeeeemly large.
Snicker.
Yes, Dan. And when the pier collapses they'll all want to sue.
I have seen them, but it was backwoods - AND Oregon! Ha ha!
I'll have to do a search on the general after Earl clears out. Curiosity kills the cat (and Gaston) every time......
Tell me it aint so....
I don't think so. I believe they just haven't switched the ATCF info over to LO yet.
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