Earl significantly weakening
Hurricane Earl has significantly weakened today. The Hurricane Hunters found a central pressure of 948 mb at 4:06pm EDT, a large 20 mb rise from the 928 mb pressure of the 5am EDT advisory this morning. The aircraft found flight level winds at 10,000 feet of 124 mph, which translates to surface winds at the boundary between Category 2 and Category 3 strength, 112 mph. However, the SFMR instrument on the aircraft saw top surface winds of just 98 mph. Satellite imagery shows that Earl is no longer as impressive--the eye is less distinct, and the hurricane has a lopsided appearance. Dry air and wind shear of 15 - 20 knots have chewed away at Earl's southwest side.
Earl has made its turn to the north, and is headed for a close brush with North Carolina's Outer Banks. Rain bands from the hurricane have reached the coast, as seen on long-range Cape Hatteras radar.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Earl.
Forecast for Earl
If you're wondering about your chances for receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds from Earl, I highly recommend the NHC wind probability product. The highest odds of hurricane force winds for any location on the U.S. coast are for Nantucket--25%. Yarmouth, Nova Scotia has the highest odds for Canada, 15%, and Cape Hatteras has the highest odds for North Carolina, 19%. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track, and the latest SHIPS model forecast also shows no surprises. Wind shear will remain moderately high, 15 - 20 knots, through Friday morning. This should allow Earl to maintain Category 2 hurricane status as it passes North Carolina early Friday morning. By Friday night, as Earl gets caught in the jet stream and accelerates to the northeast, wind shear will rise to 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 1 hurricane early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm early Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada. The expected impacts on the coast should somewhat less than what I outlined in this morning's blog post, because of Earl's recent weakening.
Figure 2. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 3:30pm EDT Thursday, September 2, 2010. Note the asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 18 mph to the north at the time. The highest contour has top winds of 80 kt (92 mph) surrounding the "+" on the NNE side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds in the left front quadrant (on the west side) were just 75 knots (87 mph.) The asymmetry is not nearly as great as what was observed at 9:30am this morning. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.
Fiona
There is little change in the forecast for Tropical Storm Fiona, which is struggling due to high wind shear, courtesy of strong upper-level northerly winds from Hurricane Earl's outflow. Satellite loops show the classic signature of a tropical storm experiencing high wind shear--an exposed center of circulation, and all the heavy thunderstorms pushed to one side (the south side in this case). Wind shear from Earl and dry air should keep Fiona from attaining hurricane status, and the shear may be strong enough to destroy Fiona.
Gaston dies
Tropical Depression Gaston lost its battle with dry air. Satellite imagery shows that Gaston no longer has a surface circulation, and NHC has declared the system dead. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days, so it is possible Gaston could regenerate.
Figure 3. Afternoon satellite image of Gaston (left) and the latest tropical wave to move off of Africa (right).
New tropical wave
A large and well-organized tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa last night, and this wave has the potential to follow the pattern set by Danielle, Earl, Fiona, and Gaston. Several models do develop this system into a tropical depression early next week, and NHC is giving the wave a 10% chance of developing by Saturday afternoon. Wind shear is currently too high, 30 - 40 knots, for the wave to develop. However, once the wave reaches a point a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands two days from now, wind shear will drop and development will be more likely.
There is also a tropical wave over Central Africa which will emerge from the coast in 4 - 5 days. Some of the models are predicting development of this wave, 7 or so days from now.
Links to follow today
Cape Hatteras weather
Cape Hatteras radar
Next post
I'll have an update in the morning, and Dr. Rob Carver will have a late-night update.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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You trying to create a Diplomatic Incident, are'nt you?
WHODAT!!!
Now dems fightin' words.
Don't get me started.
Am going to watch some US Open tennis before collapsing in complete exhaustion (worked from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. yikes). BTW Roddick OUT thanks to his bimbo wife imo. Man oh Man that poor guy obviously cannot see the tennis ball anymore.
I beg your pardon, I am a lurking Bucs Fan. :) Gaston is going to make it interesting here in Florida I believe.
Who? Me? do you not notice the shiny Halo?
It was an innocent question or statement... I heard it on the radio listening to Blue Collar.
I'm glad there is at least one left... there would be a lot more if they had caring owners.
It's in lurk mode that's all.
L8R.
Hey there I'm in Shawnee. I was out gardening and looked up and there are Mammatus Clouds! Gonna start taking my camera out with me from now on whenever I go outside, I've finally learned this time. It got really noisy for awhile but no hail here. Was it loud in the city?
Probably air freshener.
you did forget, Miami isn't part of the south... really..
bastardi thinks strenghtening possible over gulf stream
LOL
Everyone knows orcas are harmless!
that's why I'm a BC Lions fan! NOT!
On the Blue Collar channel... according to George Lopez... its actually Cuba North.
(Its a joke.. and he did say it)
Im a Dolphan no bag 4 me... Ill wait 4 the season!!
LOL.
"nuff said. I notice noboddy else took you up on the thing.
But I would check my brake-lines before I left home tomorrow, if I was you...
specially if you are driving down any steep hills toward the cliff......
Ouch.. ok, that hurt.. they do suck bigtime.
Until I get a better look tomorrow It looks like Fiona just put the brakes on.
I dont think she is something to worry about.
But surely something interesting to watch.
I think her scenario is good for learning.
I left Florida 'cause it filled up with Yankees and I was afraid they would teach my kids to talk funny.... and I needed to build a compound in which to work on my manifesto....;^)
Si eso es cierto. Gracias, and by the way we Dolphins fans wear a more sophisticated paper bag, so I'm gonna have to find that wiki-pedia page and make the appropriate changes.
I do love the Blue Collar Comedy channel, thats where I learn all about American culture.
Morehead City, Base Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN IN THE NEXT 48 HRS AND A 43%
CHANCE OF ATTAINING TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN THE DAY 4-5 TIME
FRAME. GIVEN OUR CURRENT LIMITED SKILL IN INTENSITY FORECASTS
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT EXACTLY WHAT WILL HAPPEN. GLOBAL
MODELS STILL LIKE GASTON AND DEVELOP IT INTO A HURRICANE IN FIVE
DAYS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO THE LESSER ANTILLES IT
SHOULD ENCOUNTER A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR REGENERATION.
ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS FOR LARGER TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST TO
ABSORB GASTON AS IT CATCHES UP TO HIM HOWEVER THIS IS HIGHLY
SPECULATIVE. ANYWAY...EVEN IN THE CASE OF GASTON COMING BACK TO A
TROPICAL STORM ANY EFFECTS WOULD NOT BE FELT UNTIL AT LEAST TUE
AT THE EARLIEST AND NOT LIKELY UNTIL WED OF NEXT WEEK. SO ENJOY
THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MAKE SURE TO TUNE BACK ON MONDAY TO
SEE WHAT IS GOING WITH THE TROPICS.
well u guys are now 3 players deep and out of money lol im a Magic fan in b-ball
Morehead City, Base Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI
Hey people! I used to live in Norman for none other than...meteorology at OU! ha. Hows it going up there?
Im an adjuster as well...but also an appraiser. If I dont roll for Earl I'm plenty busy...but it is opening weekend of dove season so I might take advantage of it and head to Kansas!
It's also called Kingston 21 by the Jamaicans
08L/TS/F/CX
09L/REM LOW/XX
Viewing: 901 - 951
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