Earl's rain bands move over New England; Gaston regenerating?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:09 PM GMT on September 03, 2010

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Hurricane Earl has remained roughly constant in intensity over the past six hours, as it heads north-northeast at 20 mph towards New England. The latest center fix from the Hurricane Hunters, at 1:14pm EDT, found the pressure had remained constant since late morning, at 961 mb. Long range radar out of Long Island shows that Earl's outermost spiral bands have already brought as much as one inch of rain to portions of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with lesser amounts on Long Island and in Connecticut.


Figure 1. Afternoon radar image from the Long Island, New York radar.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track. Earl is still expected to pass 20 - 50 miles southeast of Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, at about 2am Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast of wind shear continues to show that shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Saturday. Ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C early Saturday morning, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will probably be a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England, and have 65 mph winds on Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada. I have no substantive changes to make to the impacts likely for New England and Canada that I discussed in this morning's post.


Figure 2. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 3:30pm EDT Friday, September 3, 2010. Note the 15 mph (13 kt) asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 20 mph to the north-northeast at the time. The highest contour had top winds of 65 kt (75 mph) surrounding the "+" on the east side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds on the left (northwest) side were just 52 knots (60 mph.) The asymmetry was greater--about 20 mph--at 6:30 am EDT this morning. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona has changed little this afternoon. Satellite loops continue to show that Fiona is a naked swirl of low clouds with just one diminishing spot of heavy thunderstorms on the southwest side of the circulation. High wind shear from Earl should continue to affect Fiona over the next two days, and will probably destroy the storm on Saturday.


Figure 3. Afternoon satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gaston may be regenerating
Recent satellite imagery continues to show that Gaston's remains are re-organizing. Gaston has a broad surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air lies to the west and north of Gaston's remains, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where the atmosphere is relatively moist, so this shear will be less harmful than usual for development. NHC is giving Gaston a 50% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Sunday; I put these odds higher, at 60%. The GFS, UKMET, and GFDL models develop Gaston and predict it will move though the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. The NOGAPS and HWRF models also develop Gaston, but predict a slower motion, bringing the storm near the northern Lesser Antilles 6 - 7 days from now. Given the steady increase in organization of Gaston's remains today and high degree of model support for regeneration, I expect Gaston will be a tropical storm again, early next week.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verdes Islands, is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear has dropped to 20 - 25 knots, and will decrease to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Saturday through Monday. The system will move over the Cape Verdes Islands over the weekend, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain squalls. NHC is giving the wave a 30% chance of developing by Sunday afternoon. Several models develop 99L into a tropical depression, but head it northwest into a region of very high wind shear that destroys the system by Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Saturday by 1pm.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC (OBXNCWEATHER)
Gas station in Nags Head, NC that fell victim to Hurricane Earl's winds.
Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC
Earl's waves (StormJunkie)
Earl's waves

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Quoting LightningCharmer:
Agree with you on that one. Some model runs I saw earlier were showing a basin jumper but infrared satellite imagery appears to show Gulf of Mexico possible formation.


Yeah, or as Storm observed, it's already happened to an extent.

If it was considered to be its own entity rather than an extension/re-development of TD11-E remnants, it'd be the first BoC only storm since Hurricane Lorenzo in 2007 (I say BoC only, as of course Alex did most of his intensification in those waters, but formed before crossing the Yucatan).

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both those 500mb patterns STORM shows is the US deflector shield program with the Central Atl trof axis and its constant progession this year it is gonna be tough for anything to bust past 60-70w as it constantly erodes the subtropical ridge on it west side and it never has a chance to build back to 590 or greater heights
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StormW, have you looked at 99L this morning?
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Quoting Cotillion:
From the way the energy is switched in the BoC, it looks more like the 6z GFS wants to develop TD11-E in the Atlantic side of things.
Agree with you on that one. Some model runs I saw earlier were showing a basin jumper but infrared satellite imagery appears to show Gulf of Mexico possible formation.
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Good Morning, StormW
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Good Morning, StormW
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GFS shows Hermine in the BOC in 60 hours, making landfall as a moderate Tropical Storm, Igor in 90 hours, and Julia behind Igor in 180 hours.
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Thank you Ike and Storm. :)
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Quoting IKE:


Almost like the USA(lower 48), has a shield up deflecting or destroying systems.

I noticed Earl went south and east of Cape Cod and never hit the USA(lower 48).
It's called HAARP, look it up if you have no knowledge of it. Personally, I think they should not be playing with mother nature like its a toy, it could backfire twofold.
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930. IKE
Quoting weatherwart:
(4)"If it taps the TCHP in the western Caribbean it's RI."


I have no clue what that means. lol

Good morning, everybody.


Rapid Intensification.
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Thinks what the models are showing is the remnants of TD-11E and the disturbance in the AOI merging to become a system.

We shall see.
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Isn't the water pretty warm all the way from Africa across the Atlantic, the Caribbean and into the Gulf? If it's all a big warm bathtub, then it would seem to me other factors would come into play, wouldn't they?
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926. IKE
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yep. Looks like 'Igor' is a very powerful fish storm on this run. Very similar to Danielle.

Good to see no landfalls on the CONUS.


Almost like the USA(lower 48), has a shield up deflecting or destroying systems.

I noticed Earl went south and east of Cape Cod and never hit the USA(lower 48).
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
6z GFS doesnt develop ex-Gaston.

But it does develop 3 more systems.


Gaston's just about to approach the Gulf by the end, it seems.

From the way the energy is switched in the BoC, it looks more like the 6z GFS wants to develop TD11-E in the Atlantic side of things.
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(4)"If it taps the TCHP in the western Caribbean it's RI."


I have no clue what that means. lol

Good morning, everybody.
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Quoting docrod:



The tree frogs are rejoicing right now in Key Colony Beach, FL Keys. I think we'll get about a inch maybe two from this line.
It looks pretty wet there. Looks like more is building to the south.

'Watching DISTURBANCE GASTON closely as well. I like that "Disturbance;" kind of like a disturbed child getting ready for another rant and tantrum ... Uh-Oh.
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Quoting IKE:
Every blob in the Atlantic has been named through the I letter?



Surprising...but you're correct.


Yep. Looks like 'Igor' is a very powerful fish storm on this run. Very similar to Danielle.

Good to see no landfalls on the CONUS.
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Quoting IKE:
Top sayings with Gaston....

(1)This one's gonna come much further west then these crappy models are showing and threaten the GOM.
(2)Reference to the model tracks on him...."not good".
(3)Reference to the model tracks on him...."trouble".
(4)"If it taps the TCHP in the western Caribbean it's RI."
(5)My track is further west than the NHC/consensus(((personal added note: is anyone's track ever east of the consensus?)))
(6)Game...set...match.
(7)Where are the season is a bust crowd now?
(8)Cat 5 headed for NO.
(9)Any of the 20 different screen names stormtop uses will come on and say the GOM is doomed.


+1

The best statement I saw while looking through last night (reverted back to lurking for the evening shift... it's better) was TD to Cat 5 in 36 hours in the Western Caribbean.

Yeah. Okay.

Even Felix didn't manage that and he was a rare hurricane amongst rare hurricanes (by 36 hours since becoming a TD, he reached 100mph/Cat 2 status).

Warm waters aren't everything, which some still do not understand. They're very helpful and can cause ED/RI, but only if most/all other factors are helpful as well. Even then, even if all factors align, it still doesn't mean that it can reach Category 5/Hypercane/Apocalyptocane status.

'Could' does not equal 'will'.
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919. IKE
Quoting StormW:


Is that a pinhole eye?


"""TAZ's favorite saying"""
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918. IKE
Every blob in the Atlantic has been named through the I letter?

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
6z GFS doesnt develop ex-Gaston.

But it does develop 3 more systems.


Surprising...but you're correct.
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6z GFS doesnt develop ex-Gaston.

But it does develop 3 more systems.
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ACE Watch:

Alex: 6.7825
Bonnie: 0.3875
Colin 1.9450
Danielle: 21.7950
Earl: 26.6950 (add an extra 0.3600 for the 60kts, so 27.055)
Fiona: 2.94
Gaston: 0.3875

At 61.2525

2002: 65.15
2007: 71.7
2006: 78.5

So, around 17 away from eclipsing 2006. To surpass it in a week with just one storm, you'd need roughly 0.61 per 6 hour advisory (equivalent to a 90mph Category One hurricane for a week).

Let alone whenever Hermine and friends come into the equation.
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914. IKE
Top sayings with Gaston....

(1)This one's gonna come much further west then these crappy models are showing and threaten the GOM.
(2)Reference to the model tracks on him...."not good".
(3)Reference to the model tracks on him...."trouble".
(4)"If it taps the TCHP in the western Caribbean it's RI."
(5)My track is further west than the NHC/consensus(((personal added note: is anyone's track ever east of the consensus?)))
(6)Game...set...match.
(7)Where are the season is a bust crowd now?
(8)Cat 5 headed for NO.
(9)Any of the 20 different screen names stormtop uses will come on and say the GOM is doomed.
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Hurricane Igor at 156.

Looks like the wave for this exits at 72 hours.

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Take a look at the FL Keys this morning also:




The tree frogs are rejoicing right now in Key Colony Beach, FL Keys. I think we'll get about a inch maybe two from this line.
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TD or Hermine in the BOC.


Igor off of Africa.

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Quoting Cotillion:
AL, 09, 2010090406, , BEST, 0, 152N, 434W, 30, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GASTON, S,

Maybe at 11am/5pm, depending. I have never seen them re-initiate advisories on a named storm at only depression, but that's not to say that it has not happened or can't happen.

I'm glad my eyes weren't screwing with me yesterday over the area in the BoC. GFS has had the last few runs, but no other models seems to pick up on it. Guess we'll see if anything comes of it.

And morning to all.


Take a look at the FL Keys this morning also:



.

May be nothing but there's been rotation and marginal banding for the last couple hours on radar.

Also noticing west winds on buoys south of storms, however, prevailing winds are SSW currently. 'Looking for east winds north of storms.

Station SANF1 - Sand Key, FL - N ( 10 deg true )

Station SMKF1 - Sombrero Key, FL - SSE ( 150 deg true )

'Been watching the Bay of Campeche as well.

One things for sure, not a good day for fishing...
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00
WHXX01 KWBC 040952
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0952 UTC SAT SEP 4 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE GASTON (AL092010) 20100904 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100904 0600 100904 1800 100905 0600 100905 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 44.0W 15.9N 45.7W 16.2N 47.7W 16.5N 50.1W
BAMD 15.4N 44.0W 15.8N 45.8W 15.9N 47.9W 15.7N 50.4W
BAMM 15.4N 44.0W 15.8N 45.5W 15.9N 47.1W 15.8N 49.0W
LBAR 15.4N 44.0W 16.0N 45.8W 16.6N 47.9W 17.2N 50.4W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100906 0600 100907 0600 100908 0600 100909 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.4N 52.7W 16.4N 58.2W 17.1N 62.6W 18.5N 65.5W
BAMD 15.2N 53.3W 14.2N 59.7W 13.9N 64.6W 14.4N 67.7W
BAMM 15.5N 51.3W 15.3N 56.1W 16.4N 60.2W 18.4N 63.4W
LBAR 17.7N 53.5W 18.1N 59.4W 17.7N 64.5W 17.2N 67.5W
SHIP 58KTS 75KTS 87KTS 100KTS
DSHP 58KTS 75KTS 87KTS 100KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.4N LONCUR = 44.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 14.9N LONM12 = 42.0W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 14.1N LONM24 = 40.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

That's the latest for Gaston. Curiously, they've just re-done it. The current statistics are the same - 35mph, 1008mb - but the co-ordinates and the predicted intensity are slightly different. Initiated him in a different position (more west and slightly more north).

SHIPs now wants to make Gaston a Category 3 by the end of the period.

(If that's right, he's not really tucked under the convection enough yet).
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November hurricanes of note:

The most extraordinary November hurricane was "Wrong-Way Lenny", which hit the northern Leeward Islands as a strong Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds on November 17-18, 1999. Lenny was the first storm to have an extended west-to-east track across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea in the 135-year Atlantic tropical cyclone record, and was the strongest November hurricane on record.
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If it looks like a tropical cyclone...

Smells like a tropical cyclone...

Quacks like a tropical cyclone...

It probably is.



However, it will be running into shear if the forecasts are correct. As Gaston isn't exactly a big cyclone like some of its predecessors this year (whom haven't been hardy exactly themselves - some years, cyclones can withstand almost anything, it seems. Others, they unravel rather easily. Maybe there's some 'AHGO' missing in the literature. Atlantic Hurricane Glue Oscillation), so he may struggle a bit, he's already come undone once. However, earlier on, people will mentioning anti-cyclones, so maybe he'll have a shear shield. Seems also the High in front of him causing a lot of the shear has the word 'dspt' next to it in the ASTA 06z.

Dry air'll be a problem for a bit, but it is weakening the more he goes west.

For once, people may have to look to the East Pacific. Be interesting to see what TD11-E will do with the BoC AOI. Or whether it'll still be TD11-E when resurfacing by the BoC/GoM (if it does, again only the GFS seems to want to toy with the notion). If it did, it'd hardly be the first instance of a storm originating in the East Pacific then going over Central America in the 'wrong' way. NHC has it dissipating, so perhaps the AOI will be an entirely different feature.
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NWS San Juann

THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
GASTON THIS MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THIS
SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND AS A RESULT THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BE RECLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE EITHER LATER TODAY
OR SUNDAY. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING...TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM ALL REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...LOCAL RESIDENTS AND
TOURISTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE DEVELOPING
WEATHER SITUATION OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS THIS STORM HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF IMPACTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE MIDDLE OF
UPCOMING WEEK.
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Quoting raggpr:


Not looking good for northern islands and PR.
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Quoting raggpr:
Not good!
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Looks sort of extratropical already.
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Quoting southernbell72:
nogaps has it going farther than puerto rico , gaston is going to be a carrib gulf storm


I wouldn't even look at that model. It is the worst one for tracking storms especially for long range. It is always on the S guidance.
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...EARL BEARING DOWN ON NOVA SCOTIA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.7N 67.1W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

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chik where are u from
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Quoting SouthFMY:
What will the jet stream look like 5 days from now? I'd like to see that projection, if anyone can post it.


Over America?

(I only have charts across the North Atlantic).
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nogaps has it going farther than puerto rico , gaston is going to be a carrib gulf storm
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AL, 09, 2010090406, , BEST, 0, 152N, 434W, 30, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GASTON, S,

Maybe at 11am/5pm, depending. I have never seen them re-initiate advisories on a named storm at only depression, but that's not to say that it has not happened or can't happen.

I'm glad my eyes weren't screwing with me yesterday over the area in the BoC. GFS has had the last few runs, but no other models seems to pick up on it. Guess we'll see if anything comes of it.

And morning to all.
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What will the jet stream look like 5 days from now? I'd like to see that projection, if anyone can post it.
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Quoting aspectre:
TropicalStormEarl's heading had turned eastward to 7.2degrees north of EastNorthEast
from its previous heading of 1.9degrees north of NorthEast
TS.Earl's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~28.3mph(45.6km/h)

03Sep . 06amGMT - - 34.6n74.3w - - 105mph - - 955mb - - NHC.Adv.#35A
03Sep . 09amGMT - - 35.3n74.0w - - 105mph - - 955mb - - #36
03Sep . 12pmGMT - - 36.2n73.6w - - 105mph - - 955mb - - #36A
03Sep . 03pmGMT - - 36.8n73.1w - - - 85mph - - 961mb - - #37
03Sep . 06pmGMT - - 37.5n72.5w - - - 80mph - - 961mb - - #37A
03Sep . 09pmGMT - - 38.2n71.8w - - - 80mph - - 961mb - - #38
04Sep . 12amGMT - - 39.1n70.8w - - - 75mph - - 961mb - - #38A
04Sep . 03amGMT - - 40.0n69.7w - - - 70mph - - 958mb - - #39
04Sep . 06amGMT - - 40.6n68.3w - - - 70mph - - 960mb - - #39A

Copy&paste 34.6n74.3w, 35.3n74.0w, 36.2n73.6w, 36.8n73.1w, 37.5n72.5w-38.2n71.8w, 38.2n71.8w-39.1n70.8w, 39.1n70.8w-40.0n69.7w, 40.0n69.7w-40.6n68.3w, yqb, 40.6n68.3w-45.7n1.2w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~9days 20hours from now to LaPalmyre,France
south of LaRochelle

And so we bid adieu et une bonne voyage to TS.Earl


Thanks for your attention to detail. 'Night.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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