Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl's rain bands move over New England; Gaston regenerating?

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:09 PM GMT on September 03, 2010

Hurricane Earl has remained roughly constant in intensity over the past six hours, as it heads north-northeast at 20 mph towards New England. The latest center fix from the Hurricane Hunters, at 1:14pm EDT, found the pressure had remained constant since late morning, at 961 mb. Long range radar out of Long Island shows that Earl's outermost spiral bands have already brought as much as one inch of rain to portions of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with lesser amounts on Long Island and in Connecticut.

Figure 1. Afternoon radar image from the Long Island, New York radar.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track. Earl is still expected to pass 20 - 50 miles southeast of Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, at about 2am Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast of wind shear continues to show that shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Saturday. Ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C early Saturday morning, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will probably be a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England, and have 65 mph winds on Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada. I have no substantive changes to make to the impacts likely for New England and Canada that I discussed in this morning's post.

Figure 2. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 3:30pm EDT Friday, September 3, 2010. Note the 15 mph (13 kt) asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 20 mph to the north-northeast at the time. The highest contour had top winds of 65 kt (75 mph) surrounding the "+" on the east side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds on the left (northwest) side were just 52 knots (60 mph.) The asymmetry was greater--about 20 mph--at 6:30 am EDT this morning. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona has changed little this afternoon. Satellite loops continue to show that Fiona is a naked swirl of low clouds with just one diminishing spot of heavy thunderstorms on the southwest side of the circulation. High wind shear from Earl should continue to affect Fiona over the next two days, and will probably destroy the storm on Saturday.

Figure 3. Afternoon satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gaston may be regenerating
Recent satellite imagery continues to show that Gaston's remains are re-organizing. Gaston has a broad surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air lies to the west and north of Gaston's remains, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where the atmosphere is relatively moist, so this shear will be less harmful than usual for development. NHC is giving Gaston a 50% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Sunday; I put these odds higher, at 60%. The GFS, UKMET, and GFDL models develop Gaston and predict it will move though the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. The NOGAPS and HWRF models also develop Gaston, but predict a slower motion, bringing the storm near the northern Lesser Antilles 6 - 7 days from now. Given the steady increase in organization of Gaston's remains today and high degree of model support for regeneration, I expect Gaston will be a tropical storm again, early next week.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verdes Islands, is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear has dropped to 20 - 25 knots, and will decrease to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Saturday through Monday. The system will move over the Cape Verdes Islands over the weekend, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain squalls. NHC is giving the wave a 30% chance of developing by Sunday afternoon. Several models develop 99L into a tropical depression, but head it northwest into a region of very high wind shear that destroys the system by Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Saturday by 1pm.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC (OBXNCWEATHER)

Gas station in Nags Head, NC that fell victim to Hurricane Earl's winds.

Earl's waves (StormJunkie)

Categories: Hurricane

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502. TheDawnAwakening 1:11 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting Chicklit: Earl will bring tropical storm winds to the east coast and then dissipate. So what. Honestly, it get tedious. Gaston, on the other hand, has lots of territory to cover. It's in 29-30 degree water -- more than warm enough to support cyclogenesis. It's in the midst of some dry air but that will eventtually run out and if it still has circulation, then watch out. The Caribbean waters are red hot. The Florida Straits are red hot. The east coast of Florida will support a storm. If it gets into the Gulf, then fuhgettabout it. And if Gaston doesn't make it, then there are waves behind it that can. This is the problem. Dominican Republic is saturated from earlier storms and is prone to flooding. Haiti is already devastated. Florida is overpopulated in our coastal areas and there is nowhere to evacuate to. And all of the elements are here for cyclogenesis. They've been predicting this since last spring. What I'm saying is there are any number of disasters just waiting to happen. Then you get people on here who criticize us for worring about this! Puhleese. Earl is a CAT1 hurricane brushing the coast. Not an incredibly big deal until one of those piers collapses with 30 people on it. That's about it. For these Cape Verde systems that make it across the Atlantic and then go through rapid intensification either in the Carribbean or GOM, or through the Bahamas, well that's different. That's what I'm talkin about. And that's what everyone is watching and waiting for. This is not play time and we're not pretending. We're watching and waiting and hoping and praying but we all know somebody's gonna get hurt. We just don't know who. All I wanted to know is what that post meant, I have the same feelings as you do and meant no disrespect. All I wanted to know is what you mean by that picture. I know Gaston is a big threat to land and any storms that develop in the Atlantic this season because the forecasts are on point and this will be an active season, I think Danielle and Earl, Fiona and Gaston and the African wave train all prove that point, as well as the extremely warm and untapped NW Caribbean Sea waters and the GOM. This is a dangerous situation waiting to explode. We caught a potential break with Earl and Dry air and shear will not be there again to save us the next time around on the East Coast. Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 215 Comments: 3159

503. aspectre 1:12 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
HurricaneEarl's heading had turned eastward to 4.2degrees north of NorthEast from its previous heading of 7.3degrees north of NorthEast H.Earl's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~27.3mph(44km/h) 03Sep . 12amGMT - - 33.0n74.7w - - 110mph - - 948mb - - NHC.Adv.#34A 03Sep . 03amGMT - - 33.8n74.4w - - 105mph - - 951mb - - #35 03Sep . 06amGMT - - 34.6n74.3w - - 105mph - - 955mb - - #35A 03Sep . 09amGMT - - 35.3n74.0w - - 105mph - - 955mb - - #36 03Sep . 12pmGMT - - 36.2n73.6w - - 105mph - - 955mb - - #36A 03Sep . 03pmGMT - - 36.8n73.1w - - - 85mph - - 961mb - - #37 03Sep . 06pmGMT - - 37.5n72.5w - - - 80mph - - 961mb - - #37A 03Sep . 09pmGMT - - 38.2n71.8w - - - 80mph - - 961mb - - #38 03Sep . 12amGMT - - 39.1n70.8w - - - 75mph - - 961mb - - #38A Copy&paste 33.0n74.7w, 33.8n74.4w, 34.6n74.3w, 35.3n74.0w, 36.2n73.6w-36.8n73.1w, 36.8n73.1w-37.5n72.5w, 37.5n72.5w-38.2n71.8w, 38.2n71.8w-39.1n70.8w, yqb, 39.1n70.8w-43.7n65.17w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours. Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4855

506. atmoaggie 1:13 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting KoritheMan: Jack Beven of all people was in Baton Rouge? Wow. Grew up there. Off of Stanford Ave. LSU Alum, too. Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

507. hulazigzag 1:13 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy: Is that Sarcastic or Compliment.. cuase im not lying? Not wanting to help people who may disagree with you says a lot about you. Member Since: July 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 240

508. Orcasystems 1:14 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
AOI AOI AOI AOI AOI AOI TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26110

510. stormwatcherCI 1:14 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting Chicklit: Yeah, no kidding. It can happen here. Bad stuff happens. We think if we see it coming we can warn people so it may not happen to them. Exactly. I care about others. I remember on 9/11 the firefighters were here collecting donations in there helmets. I only had $20 on me but did not hesitate to put it in. When I got back to work and mentioned the collections to other workers their reply was " I only have my lunch money" like doing without lunch one day would kill them. I live from paycheck to paycheck but no matter how bad we have it there is always someone worse off. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8063

511. atmoaggie 1:14 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting fldude99: lol...yea right..and I have a bridge to sell that's east of miami.. The Rickenbacker? Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

512. KoritheMan 1:14 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting atmoaggie: Grew up there. Off of Stanford Ave. LSU Alum, too. The more you know... Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 421 Comments: 15645

513. atmoaggie 1:15 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting StormW: That must have been a blast. He was fairly humorous at the conference. You beat your ... it was. Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

516. PSLFLCaneVet 1:15 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting PSLflGrl: It was horribly hot today! We got spoiled the last couple of day with a nice breeze. It's going to be a long hot Sept.... Yes, we've a long way to go before relief from the heat sets in. I remember last year, fixing golf cars in the parking lot of a local country club, 93 degrees in late November. Muggy and the heat index was a good bit higher than that. Far enough inland to get only a fickle breeze. Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

518. clwstmchasr 1:16 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Looks like Gaston is about to be a TD at anytime. I do have a question. Is 99L way further south than surface analysis has it? Looks to me to be around 7N. Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2783

520. CitikatzSouthFL 1:17 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
FLDude99...insensitive...so....POOF...ignored and reported. Member Since: August 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 295

522. 757weather 1:18 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Wow I always thought people on this blog just overreacted but now I get why everyone gets ticked off so much. Still lots of good information is to be found here. Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 43

523. PSLFLCaneVet 1:18 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish: They're just the puppets on the strings. "Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain." LOL, don't get me started. Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

525. Chicklit 1:19 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Stormawakening. 'too much information' means 'there's more where that came from' behind Gaston. This is a creepy year. We've got high SSTs, a La Nina, low shear, a MJO that's about to bomb in our direction... It's a creepy feeling. I do think, however, that given enough warning, people can make preparations for even a CAT5 bearing down on them. Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10382

526. washingtonian115 1:19 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting StormW: +100 Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 11207

527. JLPR2 1:19 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting 757weather: Wow I always thought people on this blog just overreacted but now I get why everyone gets ticked off so much. Still lots of good information is to be found here. True, everyone gets touchy once in awhile. :D LOL But I dont get one thing... if he hates hurricanes so much, what is he doing here? O.o Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7534

529. 757weather 1:20 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
BTW thanks to all who actually contribute to the blog Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 43

532. ShenValleyFlyFish 1:21 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting pilotguy1: Oh don't be retarded. Cheap shots are not needed here. Didn't say they were the only puppets and didn't mean to start something. Sorry Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

533. CapeObserver 1:21 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting Chicklit: Stormawakening. 'too much information' means 'there's more where that came from' behind Gaston. This is a creepy year. We've got high SSTs, a La Nina, low shear, a MJO that's about to bomb in our direction... It's a creepy feeling. I do think, however, that given enough warning, people can make preparations for even a CAT5 bearing down on them. Not too much information. Not by a long shot. Good, solid post. Member Since: August 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 320

535. FLGatorCaneNut 1:22 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Storm... a question.... About a week or two back on many of your excellent blogs you always stated at the end of the blog "this is the pre-game show"...... I gathered my popcorn and an adult beverage or two getting ready for the big show...... In your opinion, has it finally begun ?? Member Since: July 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 164

537. JLPR2 1:23 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Seems like two separate disturbances, as one moves to the NW and the other to the west they are gaining distance from each other, the one to the south seems to be trapped in the ITCZ so west it goes, while the other one isn't, to me the one at the higher latitude as a better chance, in the short term. Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7534

538. kmanislander 1:23 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
15.2 N 42.6 W Gaston on the rebound but some South easterly shear it would seem. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14988

539. TheDawnAwakening 1:24 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting Chicklit: Stormawakening. 'too much information' means 'there's more where that came from' behind Gaston. This is a creepy year. We've got high SSTs, a La Nina, low shear, a MJO that's about to bomb in our direction... It's a creepy feeling. I do think, however, that given enough warning, people can make preparations for even a CAT5 bearing down on them. I have no arguments with you Chicklit, thanks for the clarification. I thought there was actual information or something with the picture. I understand what you mean. Yes it truly is scary. 2005 had neutral conditions and no La Nina. I don't think we have time to match 2005 in anything, except maybe Wilma's intensity if shear is as close to zero as possible. Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 215 Comments: 3159

541. Chicklit 1:24 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
omg, i hope i'm not overreacting... Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10382

542. clwstmchasr 1:25 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting FLGatorCaneNut: Storm... a question.... About a week or two back on many of your excellent blogs you always stated at the end that the blog "this is the pre-game show"...... I gathered my popcorn and an adult beverage or two getting ready for the big show...... In your opinion, has it finally begun ?? I saw someone ask the same question a few hours ago but I never saw a response. Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2783

544. AllBoardedUp 1:25 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish: Didn't say they were the only puppets and didn't mean to start something. Sorry I caught what you were referring to, and I agree. But yes, we might want to drop it, don't want to get off topic, er.... I mean tropic! Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 585

545. PSLFLCaneVet 1:26 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting pilotguy1: Retarded. Duh, Stupid is what stupid does. All due respect to Floodman, But... Goodbye. Power poof. Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

546. hulazigzag 1:26 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting pilotguy1: Retarded. Duh, Stupid is what stupid does. speaking of did anyone else watch OZ last night from hatteras Member Since: July 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 240

547. CapeObserver 1:26 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting Chicklit: omg, i hope i'm not overreacting... +10 :) Member Since: August 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 320

548. TheDawnAwakening 1:27 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
The only preparation if given enough time before a category five hurricane hits is to get out of dodge and pray to God, that the hurricane weakens in time. I think people would have taken Earl more seriously if he had become a category five hurricane at some point. Wind shear, dry air and a nicely timed EWRC took care of any concerns we had as Earl was nearing the NC coastline last night. One of these days that luck will run out for us and we will have a category three hurricane barreling towards New England. Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 215 Comments: 3159

549. washingtonian115 1:27 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting Chicklit: omg, i hope i'm not overreacting... I see future Igor over africa.The most highly anticapated storm of the season.If it turns out to be a 40mph deformed storm some will be dissapointed..... Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 11207

551. 7544 1:27 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting Chicklit: omg, i hope i'm not overreacting... IGOR is in there somwhere he will be the one to watch imo Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6023

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