Earl's rain bands move over New England; Gaston regenerating?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:09 PM GMT on September 03, 2010

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Hurricane Earl has remained roughly constant in intensity over the past six hours, as it heads north-northeast at 20 mph towards New England. The latest center fix from the Hurricane Hunters, at 1:14pm EDT, found the pressure had remained constant since late morning, at 961 mb. Long range radar out of Long Island shows that Earl's outermost spiral bands have already brought as much as one inch of rain to portions of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with lesser amounts on Long Island and in Connecticut.


Figure 1. Afternoon radar image from the Long Island, New York radar.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track. Earl is still expected to pass 20 - 50 miles southeast of Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, at about 2am Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast of wind shear continues to show that shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Saturday. Ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C early Saturday morning, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will probably be a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England, and have 65 mph winds on Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada. I have no substantive changes to make to the impacts likely for New England and Canada that I discussed in this morning's post.


Figure 2. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 3:30pm EDT Friday, September 3, 2010. Note the 15 mph (13 kt) asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 20 mph to the north-northeast at the time. The highest contour had top winds of 65 kt (75 mph) surrounding the "+" on the east side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds on the left (northwest) side were just 52 knots (60 mph.) The asymmetry was greater--about 20 mph--at 6:30 am EDT this morning. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona has changed little this afternoon. Satellite loops continue to show that Fiona is a naked swirl of low clouds with just one diminishing spot of heavy thunderstorms on the southwest side of the circulation. High wind shear from Earl should continue to affect Fiona over the next two days, and will probably destroy the storm on Saturday.


Figure 3. Afternoon satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gaston may be regenerating
Recent satellite imagery continues to show that Gaston's remains are re-organizing. Gaston has a broad surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air lies to the west and north of Gaston's remains, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where the atmosphere is relatively moist, so this shear will be less harmful than usual for development. NHC is giving Gaston a 50% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Sunday; I put these odds higher, at 60%. The GFS, UKMET, and GFDL models develop Gaston and predict it will move though the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. The NOGAPS and HWRF models also develop Gaston, but predict a slower motion, bringing the storm near the northern Lesser Antilles 6 - 7 days from now. Given the steady increase in organization of Gaston's remains today and high degree of model support for regeneration, I expect Gaston will be a tropical storm again, early next week.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verdes Islands, is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear has dropped to 20 - 25 knots, and will decrease to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Saturday through Monday. The system will move over the Cape Verdes Islands over the weekend, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain squalls. NHC is giving the wave a 30% chance of developing by Sunday afternoon. Several models develop 99L into a tropical depression, but head it northwest into a region of very high wind shear that destroys the system by Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Saturday by 1pm.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC (OBXNCWEATHER)
Gas station in Nags Head, NC that fell victim to Hurricane Earl's winds.
Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC
Earl's waves (StormJunkie)
Earl's waves

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Quoting aspectre:
TropicalStormEarl's heading had turned eastward to 7.2degrees north of EastNorthEast
from its previous heading of 1.9degrees north of NorthEast
TS.Earl's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~28.3mph(45.6km/h)

03Sep . 06amGMT - - 34.6n74.3w - - 105mph - - 955mb - - NHC.Adv.#35A
03Sep . 09amGMT - - 35.3n74.0w - - 105mph - - 955mb - - #36
03Sep . 12pmGMT - - 36.2n73.6w - - 105mph - - 955mb - - #36A
03Sep . 03pmGMT - - 36.8n73.1w - - - 85mph - - 961mb - - #37
03Sep . 06pmGMT - - 37.5n72.5w - - - 80mph - - 961mb - - #37A
03Sep . 09pmGMT - - 38.2n71.8w - - - 80mph - - 961mb - - #38
04Sep . 12amGMT - - 39.1n70.8w - - - 75mph - - 961mb - - #38A
04Sep . 03amGMT - - 40.0n69.7w - - - 70mph - - 958mb - - #39
04Sep . 06amGMT - - 40.6n68.3w - - - 70mph - - 960mb - - #39A

Copy&paste 34.6n74.3w, 35.3n74.0w, 36.2n73.6w, 36.8n73.1w, 37.5n72.5w-38.2n71.8w, 38.2n71.8w-39.1n70.8w, 39.1n70.8w-40.0n69.7w, 40.0n69.7w-40.6n68.3w, yqb, 40.6n68.3w-45.7n1.2w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~9days 20hours from now to LaPalmyre,France
south of LaRochelle

And so we bid adieu et une bonne voyage to TS.Earl


Thanks for your attention to detail. 'Night.
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This looks like more reality to me right now...

""



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Lately the ECMWF has been doing horrible. The latest 00Z run with Gaston making landfall in Belize is ridiculous lol I think even the GFS is doing a little better job now imo All the models for the most part this season haven't really done too well though.
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Quoting superweatherman:

Anything that goes though here will be almost a 99% blow into a Cat 5


As we've seen this season . It's not all about sst and thcp. Upper level features have to coincide to create that perfect env.

Hopefully won't do that in caribbean cuz no escape from there but impact
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Quoting btwntx08:
ok took a look at the end of the ecmwf at 240 takes gaston to the yuactan/belize area anyways im out for real talk to ya in the am
Is that a front coming also... it may turn it to the north... It is going to be like I said very interesting next weekend...
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
People keep saying XGaston is headed for the Carribean. The heavy convection is headed towards or N of PR. Waiting to see NHC's take on it.

most are sleeping already... lol...I am trying to do computer script but I maybe out also... Next week is going to be long one for some if the BOC develops and Gaston follows some of the models that are trying to make to the Gulf.
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
People keep saying XGaston is headed for the Carribean. The heavy convection is headed towards or N of PR. Waiting to see NHC's take on it.

First it is the Lesser Antilles in his path
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I just hope that Gaston does not pass though here. Ike two years ago turn off the lights for 3 weeks and the internet for one 4... I was going to go crazy...LoL
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Has the blog locked up again?
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687

Anything that goes though here will be almost a 99% blow into a Cat 5
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880. xcool
mm
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Quoting btwntx08:

Man that ecmwf does want to take it more south and into the hottest part of the Gulf
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TropicalStormEarl's heading had turned eastward to 7.2degrees north of EastNorthEast
from its previous heading of 1.9degrees north of NorthEast
TS.Earl's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~28.3mph(45.6km/h)

03Sep . 06amGMT - - 34.6n74.3w - - 105mph - - 955mb - - NHC.Adv.#35A
03Sep . 09amGMT - - 35.3n74.0w - - 105mph - - 955mb - - #36
03Sep . 12pmGMT - - 36.2n73.6w - - 105mph - - 955mb - - #36A
03Sep . 03pmGMT - - 36.8n73.1w - - - 85mph - - 961mb - - #37
03Sep . 06pmGMT - - 37.5n72.5w - - - 80mph - - 961mb - - #37A
03Sep . 09pmGMT - - 38.2n71.8w - - - 80mph - - 961mb - - #38
04Sep . 12amGMT - - 39.1n70.8w - - - 75mph - - 961mb - - #38A
04Sep . 03amGMT - - 40.0n69.7w - - - 70mph - - 958mb - - #39
04Sep . 06amGMT - - 40.6n68.3w - - - 70mph - - 960mb - - #39A

Copy&paste 34.6n74.3w, 35.3n74.0w, 36.2n73.6w, 36.8n73.1w, 37.5n72.5w-38.2n71.8w, 38.2n71.8w-39.1n70.8w, 39.1n70.8w-40.0n69.7w, 40.0n69.7w-40.6n68.3w, yqb, 40.6n68.3w-45.7n1.2w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~9days 20hours from now to LaPalmyre,France
south of LaRochelle

And so we bid adieu et une bonne voyage to TS.Earl
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting btwntx08:
ecmwf tries to get a low going in the boc but its too close to land also it does have gaston there and behind it in 72 hrs


But nothing in the Gulf except for that blob that like you said it may not develop... I just want to check I may take a vacation down to Corpus this weekend until next Week maybe
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873. xcool
Gaston wow
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Quoting superweatherman:


Image this picture but with all name storms at one time... that will be somethings:
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Igor


Why would we imagine that. What was the point of that post? I don't get it.
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Image this picture but with all name storms at one time... that will be somethings:
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Igor
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Ah I see your point. I believe those are now referred to as "annular hurricanes". And yes, they are quite fascinating.


Yup, I think that's about the only type of Hurricane that could ever get to New England as a cat 3 too, the '38 Hurricane had to have had one of those eyes.
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868. xcool
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Quoting KanKunKid:
when did the blog come back on?


yikes. Thought I was banned. Long-time lurker banned. Hmm. Anyway, enjoy the banter.
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Quoting Johnhopefan:


I'm talking about that huge circular eye like Isabel or Hugo that lasts for days, wimpy Earl had a half decent eye but it was gone in like 6 hours. Isabel didn't have an eye replacement cycle for days because the thing was so solid and huge. It's always the perfectly circular blobs like Gaston that get those eyes.


Ah I see your point. I believe those are now referred to as "annular hurricanes". And yes, they are quite fascinating.
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The GFS develops the blob in the BOC and pulls Gaston out to see but before fiting Puerto Rico and the Bahamas and develops 99 and also send it back to sea... and attempt to develop a Igor but as a weak system at the last frame
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Earl had a huge eye too, FYI...



It's not developed yet, nor was it forecast to.


I'm talking about that huge circular eye like Isabel or Hugo that lasts for days, wimpy Earl had a half decent eye but it was gone in like 6 hours. Isabel didn't have an eye replacement cycle for days because the thing was so solid and huge. It's always the perfectly circular blobs like Gaston that get those eyes.
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861. 7544
looks like gaston may not comeback as a td but a ts yes
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6744
No.. the others.. i finally have a way to look at the GFS
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Quoting KanKunKid:
when did the blog come back on?


30 minutes ago?
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Quoting BahaHurican:


Ah... the true spirit of the blog. John Donne said it well....

No man is an island, entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main. If a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less, as well as if a promontory were, as well as if a manor of thy friend's or of thine own were: any man's death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind, and therefore never send to know for whom the bells tolls; it tolls for thee.



NO, you may not sell anybody the Paradise Island Bridge.... lol

The prep for cat 5 is "get the h*ll outta Dodge"....

What keeps amazing me about the Africa shots is the the huge areas of convection over the western Sahara / Sahel region... quite unusual that far north, and indicative of a further reduction in SAL dust-related dryness....


well said, and by the way, "meh" does not apply here...this future CV train will be brain-crashing. IMO
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855. xcool
superweatherman gfs ?
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Really happy that Earl didn't do a lot of damage. :)

Photobucket


The Outer Banks, North Carolina.
Night all.
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Quoting Johnhopefan:
The Gaston blob looka like one of those systems that could get a HUGE EYE like Isabel, unlike wimpy Earl.

Most of the locals up here on the news are disappointed as well. They didn't want another '38 or Carol but they did want an April 2007 or March 2010 Nor easter type storm!


Earl had a huge eye too, FYI...

Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Where is the high over Gaston?


It's not developed yet, nor was it forecast to.
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Where is the high over Gaston?


at this time I don't know. But for now I'm going to bed. Night all!
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xcool can you put some of the models last frames
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hey guys ! what r the chances of this new invest in GOM developing??
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Quoting Ryuujin:


That's the best way my sleep addled brain can understand it at the moment. So thanks. That coupled with that ginormous Hi pressure lockdown doesn't spell roses for the Carib or the Gulf atm.


Well the future steering is rather complicated, to say the least. Whilst we're pretty certain that Gaston enters the Caribbean, where goes after that is up to speculation at this point.
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The Gaston blob looka like one of those systems that could get a HUGE EYE like Isabel, unlike wimpy Earl.

Most of the locals up here on the news are disappointed as well. They didn't want another '38 or Carol but they did want an April 2007 or March 2010 Nor easter type storm!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


In simplest terms, yes.

EDIT: But for an anticyclone to be beneficial to the growth and development of a tropical cyclone, it must be directly (or near so) collocated atop the surface center of the tropical cyclone. Otherwise, it can actually act to shear the system.


Yeah, that part I knew. I was just assuming we were talking about one being on top of him because of my prior mention.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


In simplest terms, yes.


That's the best way my sleep addled brain can understand it at the moment. So thanks. That coupled with that ginormous Hi pressure lockdown doesn't spell roses for the Carib or the Gulf atm.
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Tired ......NIte all.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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