Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl's rain bands move over New England; Gaston regenerating?

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:09 PM GMT on September 03, 2010

Hurricane Earl has remained roughly constant in intensity over the past six hours, as it heads north-northeast at 20 mph towards New England. The latest center fix from the Hurricane Hunters, at 1:14pm EDT, found the pressure had remained constant since late morning, at 961 mb. Long range radar out of Long Island shows that Earl's outermost spiral bands have already brought as much as one inch of rain to portions of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with lesser amounts on Long Island and in Connecticut.

Figure 1. Afternoon radar image from the Long Island, New York radar.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track. Earl is still expected to pass 20 - 50 miles southeast of Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, at about 2am Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast of wind shear continues to show that shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Saturday. Ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C early Saturday morning, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will probably be a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England, and have 65 mph winds on Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada. I have no substantive changes to make to the impacts likely for New England and Canada that I discussed in this morning's post.

Figure 2. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 3:30pm EDT Friday, September 3, 2010. Note the 15 mph (13 kt) asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 20 mph to the north-northeast at the time. The highest contour had top winds of 65 kt (75 mph) surrounding the "+" on the east side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds on the left (northwest) side were just 52 knots (60 mph.) The asymmetry was greater--about 20 mph--at 6:30 am EDT this morning. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona has changed little this afternoon. Satellite loops continue to show that Fiona is a naked swirl of low clouds with just one diminishing spot of heavy thunderstorms on the southwest side of the circulation. High wind shear from Earl should continue to affect Fiona over the next two days, and will probably destroy the storm on Saturday.

Figure 3. Afternoon satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gaston may be regenerating
Recent satellite imagery continues to show that Gaston's remains are re-organizing. Gaston has a broad surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air lies to the west and north of Gaston's remains, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where the atmosphere is relatively moist, so this shear will be less harmful than usual for development. NHC is giving Gaston a 50% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Sunday; I put these odds higher, at 60%. The GFS, UKMET, and GFDL models develop Gaston and predict it will move though the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. The NOGAPS and HWRF models also develop Gaston, but predict a slower motion, bringing the storm near the northern Lesser Antilles 6 - 7 days from now. Given the steady increase in organization of Gaston's remains today and high degree of model support for regeneration, I expect Gaston will be a tropical storm again, early next week.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verdes Islands, is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear has dropped to 20 - 25 knots, and will decrease to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Saturday through Monday. The system will move over the Cape Verdes Islands over the weekend, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain squalls. NHC is giving the wave a 30% chance of developing by Sunday afternoon. Several models develop 99L into a tropical depression, but head it northwest into a region of very high wind shear that destroys the system by Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Saturday by 1pm.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC (OBXNCWEATHER)

Gas station in Nags Head, NC that fell victim to Hurricane Earl's winds.

Earl's waves (StormJunkie)

Categories: Hurricane

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601. washingtonian115 1:51 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
I said it once,and I'll say it agian.Someone from the NHC must be secrectly reading the blog.No one can tell me other wise. Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10670

602. WeatherNerdPR 1:52 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting JLPR2: The OFCI track is back, isn't that the one from the NHC? ah dang, the map went blank :\| check again lol Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464

603. katadman 1:52 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting InTheCone: WOW, wait till Flood hears this - the classic NHC poof, that's a new one! Hilarious! They must lurk in here. Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1081

604. clwstmchasr 1:53 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
test Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2759

605. AllStar17 1:55 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Ex-Gaston looking pretty good this evening. I'll have graphics after the 11:00 pm advisores on all the storms, if anyone has been wondering. Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

607. washingtonian115 1:56 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Gaston could be a depression again,mabe tomarrow again by the evening at least. Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10670

608. SAINTHURRIFAN 1:57 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
well as long as we are not rescuing certain indivuals .Lets certainly add Obama pelosi and the whole msnbc network lol. But wait i think thier so full of hot air they would float just fine. Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 668

609. MiamiHurricanes09 1:57 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Hello? Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

610. CaribBoy 1:58 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Blog's dead? Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2854

611. Orcasystems 1:58 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Blog Freeze? Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

612. breald 1:59 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting pilotguy1: I care about everyone. Particularly our President because if something happened to him we would have Joe as Prez and worse yet Nancy the Ditz would be one step closer. Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! What do you know about Pelosi? What is it she has done that makes you call her a ditz? Just curious. Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5298

613. AllStar17 1:59 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
What's going on with the blog? Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

614. sebastianflorida 2:00 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
I Hate This: Almost 4 weeks ago I lowered my numbers to 14 down from 17 which was down from 20. Currently we have had 7 named storms and we are not to the peak of season. There looks to be regeneration of Gaston comming soon, we'll still be at 7, but another storm behind that will most likely bring us to 8 prior to the peak of the season. Very likely we'll see an active September of no less than 5 more storms, with up to 7 more possible, my guess 6, which brings us to most likely 13 by the end of September. If October brings 3 to 5 storms, I would not be shocked, and I think 4 is a good number. So, by October 31 we should have about 17 storms. With 1 to 5 storms totaling for November and December 2010, we will easily hit 18 and very possible 20 storms. Kinda weird that I end up back where my prediction of 20 started in June. I know none of the numbers really matter; what really matters is how many hit land or come close to land like Earl did. My guess is that the U.S. is far from out of the woods with another 11 to 13 storms still to come within the next few months. Lesson learned; usually your first guess is right. I wonder who else wants to take this time to raise their numbers, just curious what the thoughts are. Member Since: August 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 509

615. InTheCone 2:03 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Just a test - is the blog dead?? Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979

616. BrandiQ 2:05 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting cyclonekid: Wow... 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 032032 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102010 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010 THE DEPRESSION IS STRUGGLING WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS TODAY. THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BECOME APPARENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION. A 1726Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A COUPLE OF BELIEVABLE 25-30 KT VECTORS IN THE DEPRESSION. IN ADDITION... A 1420Z AMSU PASS INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM CONTAINED 27 KT MAXIMUM WINDS FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE. THUS...THE INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY DECAY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL SSTS... STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...AND MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...BUT IF THE CONVECTION GOES POOF THIS EVENING...THE SYSTEM MAY NOT REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MUCH LONGER. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 8 TO 10 KT IN THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 20.2N 110.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 20.5N 112.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 20.7N 114.5W 25 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 20.8N 116.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 05/1800Z 20.8N 119.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE LOL! Member Since: May 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 155

617. RMM34667 2:06 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
I am worried about the "N" storm. We have this girl in the office "Nicole" who is let's just say a firecracker.. That would be one storm I wouldn't want coming my way.. (Hey Nikki, if by any chance in H E double hockey sticks you ever read this.. Ya know I'm kidding.. Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 910

618. muddertracker 2:06 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting kmanislander: Those graphics are about as unreliable as the phrase " I will respect you in the morning " Yeah...that only works if your holding an ice cream scoop or a spatula... Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2127

619. alexhurricane1991 2:06 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
What happened to the blog? Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2543

620. PSLFLCaneVet 2:06 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting WeatherNerdPR: LOL That made my night. XD Outstanding, this is a serious case of the unforeseen. ROFLMAO Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

621. canehater1 2:07 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting WeatherNerdPR: LOL That made my night. XD That's definitely one I have never seen before. I'm still laughing here... Member Since: September 8, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 675

622. THL3 2:07 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
hummmmm Member Since: December 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 34

623. cyclonekid 2:07 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
How come I can't see anything past 9:47pm EDT? Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1629

624. Asta 2:07 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Will Gaston go "Poof" again!?? Member Since: July 4, 2008 Posts: 30 Comments: 1018

625. muddertracker 2:07 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting kmanislander: Those graphics are about as unreliable as the phrase " I will respect you in the morning " Yeah..that only works if you are holding an ice cream scoop or a spatula... Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2127

626. caneswatch 2:07 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Did this blog just die? Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

627. xcool 2:07 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
00z Best Track AL, 09, 2010090400, , BEST, 0, 152N, 426W, 25, 1008, LO Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

628. JRRP 2:07 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
ola ? Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4315

629. tinkahbell 2:08 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting hulazigzag: speaking of did anyone else watch OZ last night from hatteras ~raises her hand~ I was thoroughly entertained. Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 249

630. caneswatch 2:08 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Did this blog just die? Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

631. xcool 2:08 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
00z Best Track AL, 09, 2010090400, , BEST, 0, 152N, 426W, 25, 1008, LO Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

632. leo305 2:08 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
so what happened.. nobody is posting lol Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1752

633. xcool 2:09 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

634. xcool 2:10 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
WHXX01 KWBC 040024 CHGHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0024 UTC SAT SEP 4 2010 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE GASTON (AL092010) 20100904 0000 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 100904 0000 100904 1200 100905 0000 100905 1200 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 15.2N 42.6W 15.9N 44.1W 16.6N 45.9W 17.0N 48.2W BAMD 15.2N 42.6W 15.9N 44.2W 16.3N 46.2W 16.3N 48.4W BAMM 15.2N 42.6W 15.8N 43.8W 16.2N 45.4W 16.2N 47.1W LBAR 15.2N 42.6W 16.1N 44.0W 17.0N 46.0W 17.8N 48.3W SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 40KTS DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 40KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 100906 0000 100907 0000 100908 0000 100909 0000 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 17.3N 50.7W 17.3N 56.5W 17.6N 61.8W 18.7N 65.3W BAMD 16.1N 51.0W 15.2N 56.8W 14.8N 62.1W 15.4N 65.5W BAMM 16.1N 49.1W 15.7N 53.8W 16.5N 58.0W 18.5N 60.9W LBAR 18.5N 50.9W 19.0N 56.5W 18.6N 61.8W 17.0N 65.6W SHIP 48KTS 65KTS 78KTS 91KTS DSHP 48KTS 65KTS 78KTS 91KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 15.2N LONCUR = 42.6W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 7KT LATM12 = 14.5N LONM12 = 41.3W DIRM12 = 303DEG SPDM12 = 7KT LATM24 = 13.8N LONM24 = 40.0W WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = S RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

635. xcool 2:10 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

636. leo305 2:10 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
ah I see the blog is eating the posts Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1752

637. stormwatcherCI 2:11 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Hellooo. Is anyone still on here ? I have been at post 595 for 1/2 hour now. Where is everyone ? Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

638. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:12 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Wow... Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25338

639. Asta 2:13 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Member Since: July 4, 2008 Posts: 30 Comments: 1018

641. cajunkid 2:13 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Somber on here tonight. Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1239

642. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:14 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Whats with the several minute lag? Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25338

643. cajunkid 2:14 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
test Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1239

645. JRRP 2:19 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
holaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4315

646. wunderkidcayman 2:20 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
I see Gastons COC at 15.3N 44.0W Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5471

647. beell 2:21 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Putting aside the " WNW all the way across option"-Gaston's modeled recurve comes from strong high pressure over the GOM, and possibly into the SW Atlantic and across the central Caribbean. Builds in behind the trough that took Earl to the NE. A road block to continuing west. A trough and/or weakness that may deepen/amplify south. Just east of the ridge. Gaston may have to wait for it. A stall or a slow down near 20N 70W (???) as a result. Really just too far out to guess where this western ridge will be a week from now but it may figure into the steering forecast. You'll have to spot me about 20° longitude on the turn and the liberty to post 162 hrs ahead. Gaston and the western ridge. 18Z GFS/500mb/162 hrs Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 125 Comments: 12886

648. xcool 2:21 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
hmmm Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

649. CosmicEvents 2:23 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting kmanislander: Those graphics are about as unreliable as the phrase " I will respect you in the morning " roflmao Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5099

650. Skyepony (Mod) 2:26 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29359

651. stormwatcherCI 2:26 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Does anyone know what's wrong with the blog ? I am stuck at post 595. Restarted computer and still there. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

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