Earl's rain bands move over New England; Gaston regenerating?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:09 PM GMT on September 03, 2010

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Hurricane Earl has remained roughly constant in intensity over the past six hours, as it heads north-northeast at 20 mph towards New England. The latest center fix from the Hurricane Hunters, at 1:14pm EDT, found the pressure had remained constant since late morning, at 961 mb. Long range radar out of Long Island shows that Earl's outermost spiral bands have already brought as much as one inch of rain to portions of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with lesser amounts on Long Island and in Connecticut.


Figure 1. Afternoon radar image from the Long Island, New York radar.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track. Earl is still expected to pass 20 - 50 miles southeast of Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, at about 2am Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast of wind shear continues to show that shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Saturday. Ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C early Saturday morning, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will probably be a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England, and have 65 mph winds on Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada. I have no substantive changes to make to the impacts likely for New England and Canada that I discussed in this morning's post.


Figure 2. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 3:30pm EDT Friday, September 3, 2010. Note the 15 mph (13 kt) asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 20 mph to the north-northeast at the time. The highest contour had top winds of 65 kt (75 mph) surrounding the "+" on the east side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds on the left (northwest) side were just 52 knots (60 mph.) The asymmetry was greater--about 20 mph--at 6:30 am EDT this morning. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona has changed little this afternoon. Satellite loops continue to show that Fiona is a naked swirl of low clouds with just one diminishing spot of heavy thunderstorms on the southwest side of the circulation. High wind shear from Earl should continue to affect Fiona over the next two days, and will probably destroy the storm on Saturday.


Figure 3. Afternoon satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gaston may be regenerating
Recent satellite imagery continues to show that Gaston's remains are re-organizing. Gaston has a broad surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air lies to the west and north of Gaston's remains, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where the atmosphere is relatively moist, so this shear will be less harmful than usual for development. NHC is giving Gaston a 50% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Sunday; I put these odds higher, at 60%. The GFS, UKMET, and GFDL models develop Gaston and predict it will move though the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. The NOGAPS and HWRF models also develop Gaston, but predict a slower motion, bringing the storm near the northern Lesser Antilles 6 - 7 days from now. Given the steady increase in organization of Gaston's remains today and high degree of model support for regeneration, I expect Gaston will be a tropical storm again, early next week.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verdes Islands, is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear has dropped to 20 - 25 knots, and will decrease to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Saturday through Monday. The system will move over the Cape Verdes Islands over the weekend, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain squalls. NHC is giving the wave a 30% chance of developing by Sunday afternoon. Several models develop 99L into a tropical depression, but head it northwest into a region of very high wind shear that destroys the system by Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Saturday by 1pm.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC (OBXNCWEATHER)
Gas station in Nags Head, NC that fell victim to Hurricane Earl's winds.
Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC
Earl's waves (StormJunkie)
Earl's waves

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test
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Whats with the several minute lag?
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Somber on here tonight.
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639. Asta
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Wow...
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Hellooo. Is anyone still on here ? I have been at post 595 for 1/2 hour now. Where is everyone ?
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ah I see the blog is eating the posts
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635. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
634. xcool
WHXX01 KWBC 040024
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0024 UTC SAT SEP 4 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE GASTON (AL092010) 20100904 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100904 0000 100904 1200 100905 0000 100905 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.2N 42.6W 15.9N 44.1W 16.6N 45.9W 17.0N 48.2W
BAMD 15.2N 42.6W 15.9N 44.2W 16.3N 46.2W 16.3N 48.4W
BAMM 15.2N 42.6W 15.8N 43.8W 16.2N 45.4W 16.2N 47.1W
LBAR 15.2N 42.6W 16.1N 44.0W 17.0N 46.0W 17.8N 48.3W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100906 0000 100907 0000 100908 0000 100909 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 50.7W 17.3N 56.5W 17.6N 61.8W 18.7N 65.3W
BAMD 16.1N 51.0W 15.2N 56.8W 14.8N 62.1W 15.4N 65.5W
BAMM 16.1N 49.1W 15.7N 53.8W 16.5N 58.0W 18.5N 60.9W
LBAR 18.5N 50.9W 19.0N 56.5W 18.6N 61.8W 17.0N 65.6W
SHIP 48KTS 65KTS 78KTS 91KTS
DSHP 48KTS 65KTS 78KTS 91KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.2N LONCUR = 42.6W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 14.5N LONM12 = 41.3W DIRM12 = 303DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 13.8N LONM24 = 40.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
633. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
so what happened.. nobody is posting lol
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631. xcool
00z Best Track

AL, 09, 2010090400, , BEST, 0, 152N, 426W, 25, 1008, LO

Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Did this blog just die?
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Quoting hulazigzag:
speaking of did anyone else watch OZ last night from hatteras


~raises her hand~ I was thoroughly entertained.
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628. JRRP
ola ?
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627. xcool
00z Best Track

AL, 09, 2010090400, , BEST, 0, 152N, 426W, 25, 1008, LO

Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Did this blog just die?
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Quoting kmanislander:


Those graphics are about as unreliable as the phrase " I will respect you in the morning "

Yeah..that only works if you are holding an ice cream scoop or a spatula...
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624. Asta
Will Gaston go "Poof" again!??

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How come I can't see anything past 9:47pm EDT?
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622. THL3
hummmmm
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

LOL That made my night. XD


That's definitely one I have never seen before.

I'm still laughing here...
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

LOL That made my night. XD
Outstanding, this is a serious case of the unforeseen. ROFLMAO
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What happened to the blog?
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2572
Quoting kmanislander:


Those graphics are about as unreliable as the phrase " I will respect you in the morning "

Yeah...that only works if your holding an ice cream scoop or a spatula...
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I am worried about the "N" storm. We have this girl in the office "Nicole" who is let's just say a firecracker.. That would be one storm I wouldn't want coming my way.. (Hey Nikki, if by any chance in H E double hockey sticks you ever read this.. Ya know I'm kidding..
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Quoting cyclonekid:
Wow...

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 032032
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102010
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010


THE DEPRESSION IS STRUGGLING WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS TODAY. THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BECOME
APPARENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION. A
1726Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A COUPLE OF BELIEVABLE 25-30 KT VECTORS IN
THE DEPRESSION. IN ADDITION... A 1420Z AMSU PASS INDICATED THAT THE
SYSTEM CONTAINED 27 KT MAXIMUM WINDS FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE.
THUS...THE INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECAY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL SSTS...
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...AND MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY
SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36
HOURS...BUT IF THE CONVECTION GOES POOF THIS EVENING...THE SYSTEM
MAY NOT REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MUCH LONGER.

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 8 TO 10 KT IN THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 20.2N 110.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 20.5N 112.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 20.7N 114.5W 25 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 20.8N 116.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 05/1800Z 20.8N 119.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE



LOL!
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Just a test - is the blog dead??
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I Hate This:

Almost 4 weeks ago I lowered my numbers to 14 down from 17 which was down from 20. Currently we have had 7 named storms and we are not to the peak of season. There looks to be regeneration of Gaston comming soon, we'll still be at 7, but another storm behind that will most likely bring us to 8 prior to the peak of the season. Very likely we'll see an active September of no less than 5 more storms, with up to 7 more possible, my guess 6, which brings us to most likely 13 by the end of September. If October brings 3 to 5 storms, I would not be shocked, and I think 4 is a good number. So, by October 31 we should have about 17 storms. With 1 to 5 storms totaling for November and December 2010, we will easily hit 18 and very possible 20 storms. Kinda weird that I end up back where my prediction of 20 started in June.

I know none of the numbers really matter; what really matters is how many hit land or come close to land like Earl did. My guess is that the U.S. is far from out of the woods with another 11 to 13 storms still to come within the next few months.

Lesson learned; usually your first guess is right. I wonder who else wants to take this time to raise their numbers, just curious what the thoughts are.
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What's going on with the blog?
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Quoting pilotguy1:


I care about everyone. Particularly our President because if something happened to him we would have Joe as Prez and worse yet Nancy the Ditz would be one step closer. Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


What do you know about Pelosi? What is it she has done that makes you call her a ditz? Just curious.
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Blog Freeze?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
Blog's dead?
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Hello?
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well as long as we are not rescuing certain indivuals .Lets certainly add Obama pelosi and the whole msnbc network lol. But wait i think thier so full of hot air they would float just fine.
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Gaston could be a depression again,mabe tomarrow again by the evening at least.
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Ex-Gaston looking pretty good this evening. I'll have graphics after the 11:00 pm advisores on all the storms, if anyone has been wondering.
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Quoting InTheCone:


WOW, wait till Flood hears this - the classic NHC **poof**, that's a new one!



Hilarious! They must lurk in here.
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Quoting JLPR2:
The OFCI track is back, isn't that the one from the NHC?



ah dang, the map went blank :|

check again lol
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I said it once,and I'll say it agian.Someone from the NHC must be secrectly reading the blog.No one can tell me other wise.
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Quoting Asta:

Agreed.. but only if people have the ways and means to evacuate.. The greatest lesson of Katrina is that not everyone is able.
so many elderly did not or could not leave...
no where to go, no one to take them there..
We cannot ever assume again that all Amercians are able to evacuate.. even if they want to..


The worst pictures to see was the one where the parking lot of school buses were flooded and not even used. There had to have been hundreds of buses. Supposedly Mayor Nagin said that they did not have the necessary amount of drivers for those buses.
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Quoting cyclonekid:
Wow...

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 032032
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102010
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010


THE DEPRESSION IS STRUGGLING WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS TODAY. THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BECOME
APPARENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION. A
1726Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A COUPLE OF BELIEVABLE 25-30 KT VECTORS IN
THE DEPRESSION. IN ADDITION... A 1420Z AMSU PASS INDICATED THAT THE
SYSTEM CONTAINED 27 KT MAXIMUM WINDS FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE.
THUS...THE INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECAY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL SSTS...
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...AND MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY
SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36
HOURS...BUT IF THE CONVECTION GOES POOF THIS EVENING...THE SYSTEM
MAY NOT REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MUCH LONGER.

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 8 TO 10 KT IN THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 20.2N 110.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 20.5N 112.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 20.7N 114.5W 25 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 20.8N 116.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 05/1800Z 20.8N 119.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE


LOL That made my night. XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cyclonekid:
Wow...

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 032032
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102010
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010


THE DEPRESSION IS STRUGGLING WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS TODAY. THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BECOME
APPARENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION. A
1726Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A COUPLE OF BELIEVABLE 25-30 KT VECTORS IN
THE DEPRESSION. IN ADDITION... A 1420Z AMSU PASS INDICATED THAT THE
SYSTEM CONTAINED 27 KT MAXIMUM WINDS FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE.
THUS...THE INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECAY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL SSTS...
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...AND MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY
SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36
HOURS...BUT IF THE CONVECTION GOES POOF THIS EVENING...THE SYSTEM
MAY NOT REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MUCH LONGER.

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 8 TO 10 KT IN THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 20.2N 110.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 20.5N 112.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 20.7N 114.5W 25 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 20.8N 116.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 05/1800Z 20.8N 119.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE



WOW, wait till Flood hears this - the classic NHC **poof**, that's a new one!
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Quoting hulazigzag:
LOL! well im confused cause my niece is named Katrina and she was the sweetest girl on earth when that storm hit. Now she's a smart mouth little spoiled brat. I blame it on the storm.
Lol.Like many in here I'm waiting for the I storm.Katrina was a real baddie.Maybe after the storm your nice felt notorious?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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