Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

000
ABNT20 KNHC 040559
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 105 MILES
EAST-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE NEAR AND TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. IF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
FORM NEAR THE CENTER...THEN ADVISORIES COULD BE RE-INITIATED ON
THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION OF THIS
SYSTEM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Wow 70 % and it looks like it may go into caribean, that is the least thing we need, lets wai and see. G'nite everyone

Bed time... I updated everything...and I am out of here :)



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TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

Quoting SouthFMY:
The Gaston blow up looks freaky. Has anybody seen something like that before? It doesn't look like a diurnal event.

I've seen it many times. The fact that it has persisted this long is a good indicator that he is strengthening. Those are some pretty cold cloud tops he has goin, but the size of the convection isn't all that impressive. If he keeps this up he will easily be a TD sometime later today.

Quoting btwntx08:
wow they mention the boc already that was quick

Well this is Stewart we're talking about. He's probably the least conservative forecaster there.

btwntx08
getting more and more active

Notice on the NHC outlook map we have a TS symbol, a TD symbol, a red, orange, and yellow circle. The only thing missing is a hurricane! Welcome to the peak of hurricane season.

Quoting SouthFMY:
The Gaston blow up looks freaky. Has anybody seen something like that before? It doesn't look like a diurnal event.

It's been rather obvious since this afternoon that it wasn't simply a diurnal process. The fact that Gaston was able to generate and sustain convection near its center throughout the day yesterday was an obvious indicator that the dry air is lessening and he is becoming self-sustaining.

The LLC of Fiona went North while the MIDLEVEL circulation went South and is now near or over the Dominican Republic.

Nice T'storms.. But anyways Aloha.. Night all.. football all day tomorrow and partying.. Yeehaa!!!

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
CosmicEvents was a big topic in weatherchat about 2 hours ago.

Well, I hope it was all good, lol. But if not, some say bad publicity is better than none.

I don't see anything happening in the BOC! A system is forming in the Pacific to close to the BOC for anything to form.

gaston looks good he may get upgraded in the am back to a td a bit of dry air ahead to deal with then boom as he moves westard acroos the atl .

Quoting TampaSpin:
I don't see anything happening in the BOC! A system is forming in the Pacific to close to the BOC for anything to form.

I don't see it either but stranger things have happen..

But Gnight all

Quoting 7544:
gaston looks good he may get upgraded in the am back to a td a bit of dry air ahead to deal with then boom as he moves westard acroos the atl .

Trouble:

Quoting TampaSpin:
I don't see anything happening in the BOC! A system is forming in the Pacific to close to the BOC for anything to form.

Actually i agree with you just a lot of rain for mexico but nothing organized.

Rank Hurricane Season Pressure
hPa inHg
1 Wilma 2005 882 26.0
2 Gilbert 1988 888 26.2
3 "Labor Day" 1935 892 26.3
4 Rita 2005 895 26.4
5 Allen 1980 899 26.5
6 Katrina 2005 902 26.6
7 Camille 1969 905 26.7
Mitch 1998 905 26.7
Dean 2007 905 26.7
10 "Cuba" 1924 910 26.9
Ivan 2004 910 26.9
Source: HURDAT[1]

After striking the Keys, the hurricane weakened as it paralleled the west coast of Florida. It made a second landfall in northwest Florida near Cedar Key as a Category 2 hurricane on September 4. It

Quoting btwntx08:
gaston is about back and ecwmf says no sorry ecmwf u most likely got this system wrong

It's been doing terribly ever since Fiona, really. It's a good model to be sure, but it's not gospel.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Trouble:

I'm terrible at reading those maps, but is that an Anti-cyclone forming over Gaston?

Not sure where all the storms originated from!

Quoting Ryuujin:


I'm terrible at reading those maps, but is that an Anti-cyclone forming over Gaston?

Yes. That's exactly what I was getting at.

Gaston looks a lot stronger than he did this morning.

What's Wrong With ECMWF need update too.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Yes. That's exactly what I was getting at.

Yay! I read it correctly. Now an Anti-Cyclone helps a Tropical Cyclone because it essentially voids out any or most shear, right?

Quoting btwntx08:
for those that havent seen

Wow that's one heck of a Hi Pressure gridlock over the North Atlantic

Six hours after becoming a hurricane, Andrew was predicted to make landfall near Jupiter, Florida with winds of 105 miles per hour (169 km/h).[13] The hurricane accelerated as it tracked due westward into an area of very favorable conditions, and late on August 22 began rapidly intensifying; in a 24 hour period the pressure dropped 47 mbar to a minimum pressure of 922 mbar.[1] On August 23 the cyclone attained Category 5 status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, and at 1800 UTC Hurricane Andrew reached peak winds of 175 miles per hour (282 km/h) while located a short distance off Eleuthera island in the Bahamas

Quoting Ryuujin:


Yay! I read it correctly. Now an Anti-Cyclone helps a Tropical Cyclone because it essentially voids out any or most shear, right?

In simplest terms, yes.

EDIT: But for an anticyclone to be beneficial to the growth and development of a tropical cyclone, it must be directly (or near so) collocated atop the surface center of the tropical cyclone. Otherwise, it can actually act to shear the system.

That I know was an Atlantic storm
FYI Stsimmons

Tired ......NIte all.

Quoting KoritheMan:


In simplest terms, yes.

That's the best way my sleep addled brain can understand it at the moment. So thanks. That coupled with that ginormous Hi pressure lockdown doesn't spell roses for the Carib or the Gulf atm.

Quoting KoritheMan:


In simplest terms, yes.

EDIT: But for an anticyclone to be beneficial to the growth and development of a tropical cyclone, it must be directly (or near so) collocated atop the surface center of the tropical cyclone. Otherwise, it can actually act to shear the system.

Yeah, that part I knew. I was just assuming we were talking about one being on top of him because of my prior mention.

The Gaston blob looka like one of those systems that could get a HUGE EYE like Isabel, unlike wimpy Earl.

Most of the locals up here on the news are disappointed as well. They didn't want another '38 or Carol but they did want an April 2007 or March 2010 Nor easter type storm!

Quoting Ryuujin:


That's the best way my sleep addled brain can understand it at the moment. So thanks. That coupled with that ginormous Hi pressure lockdown doesn't spell roses for the Carib or the Gulf atm.

Well the future steering is rather complicated, to say the least. Whilst we're pretty certain that Gaston enters the Caribbean, where goes after that is up to speculation at this point.

hey guys ! what r the chances of this new invest in GOM developing??

xcool can you put some of the models last frames