Earl's rain bands move over New England; Gaston regenerating?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:09 PM GMT on September 03, 2010

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Hurricane Earl has remained roughly constant in intensity over the past six hours, as it heads north-northeast at 20 mph towards New England. The latest center fix from the Hurricane Hunters, at 1:14pm EDT, found the pressure had remained constant since late morning, at 961 mb. Long range radar out of Long Island shows that Earl's outermost spiral bands have already brought as much as one inch of rain to portions of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with lesser amounts on Long Island and in Connecticut.


Figure 1. Afternoon radar image from the Long Island, New York radar.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track. Earl is still expected to pass 20 - 50 miles southeast of Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, at about 2am Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast of wind shear continues to show that shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Saturday. Ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C early Saturday morning, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will probably be a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England, and have 65 mph winds on Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada. I have no substantive changes to make to the impacts likely for New England and Canada that I discussed in this morning's post.


Figure 2. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 3:30pm EDT Friday, September 3, 2010. Note the 15 mph (13 kt) asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 20 mph to the north-northeast at the time. The highest contour had top winds of 65 kt (75 mph) surrounding the "+" on the east side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds on the left (northwest) side were just 52 knots (60 mph.) The asymmetry was greater--about 20 mph--at 6:30 am EDT this morning. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona has changed little this afternoon. Satellite loops continue to show that Fiona is a naked swirl of low clouds with just one diminishing spot of heavy thunderstorms on the southwest side of the circulation. High wind shear from Earl should continue to affect Fiona over the next two days, and will probably destroy the storm on Saturday.


Figure 3. Afternoon satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gaston may be regenerating
Recent satellite imagery continues to show that Gaston's remains are re-organizing. Gaston has a broad surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air lies to the west and north of Gaston's remains, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where the atmosphere is relatively moist, so this shear will be less harmful than usual for development. NHC is giving Gaston a 50% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Sunday; I put these odds higher, at 60%. The GFS, UKMET, and GFDL models develop Gaston and predict it will move though the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. The NOGAPS and HWRF models also develop Gaston, but predict a slower motion, bringing the storm near the northern Lesser Antilles 6 - 7 days from now. Given the steady increase in organization of Gaston's remains today and high degree of model support for regeneration, I expect Gaston will be a tropical storm again, early next week.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verdes Islands, is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear has dropped to 20 - 25 knots, and will decrease to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Saturday through Monday. The system will move over the Cape Verdes Islands over the weekend, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain squalls. NHC is giving the wave a 30% chance of developing by Sunday afternoon. Several models develop 99L into a tropical depression, but head it northwest into a region of very high wind shear that destroys the system by Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Saturday by 1pm.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC (OBXNCWEATHER)
Gas station in Nags Head, NC that fell victim to Hurricane Earl's winds.
Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC
Earl's waves (StormJunkie)
Earl's waves

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Quoting hulazigzag:
LOL! well im confused cause my niece is named Katrina and she was the sweetest girl on earth when that storm hit. Now she's a smart mouth little spoiled brat. I blame it on the storm.
Lol.Like many in here I'm waiting for the I storm.Katrina was a real baddie.Maybe after the storm your nice felt notorious?
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591. JLPR2
Quoting atmoaggie:
I'd wager the surface winds aren't that round, actually. Nor have a single center of circulation, right now, as well.


Yeah, that product usually isn't that precise with systems that aren't developed tropical systems, I think. :\
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Quotingi weatherman12345:

you are never prepared for a cat 5.
elevated to 30 ft concrete bunker,bottled water,mre's,batteries, bat operated tv and tp that should do it!!!,lol;)......oh yea lighter and flashlight w/batteries
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Quoting hulazigzag:
LOL! well im confused cause my niece is named Katrina and she was the sweetest girl on earth when that storm hit. Now she's a smart mouth little spoiled brat. I blame it on the storm.


Lol for sure.
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588. Asta
Quoting Chicklit:
Stormawakening. 'too much information' means 'there's more where that came from' behind Gaston.
This is a creepy year. We've got high SSTs, a La Nina, low shear, a MJO that's about to bomb in our direction... It's a creepy feeling.
I do think, however, that given enough warning, people can make preparations for even a CAT5 bearing down on them.



Agreed.. but only if people have the ways and means to evacuate.. The greatest lesson of Katrina is that not everyone is able.
so many elderly did not or could not leave...
no where to go, no one to take them there..
We cannot ever assume again that all Amercians are able to evacuate.. even if they want to..
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Wow...

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 032032
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102010
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010


THE DEPRESSION IS STRUGGLING WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS TODAY. THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BECOME
APPARENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION. A
1726Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A COUPLE OF BELIEVABLE 25-30 KT VECTORS IN
THE DEPRESSION. IN ADDITION... A 1420Z AMSU PASS INDICATED THAT THE
SYSTEM CONTAINED 27 KT MAXIMUM WINDS FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE.
THUS...THE INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECAY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL SSTS...
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...AND MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY
SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36
HOURS...BUT IF THE CONVECTION GOES POOF THIS EVENING...THE SYSTEM
MAY NOT REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MUCH LONGER.

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 8 TO 10 KT IN THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 20.2N 110.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 20.5N 112.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 20.7N 114.5W 25 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 20.8N 116.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 05/1800Z 20.8N 119.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE

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Inre comment503, didn't properly transcribe the last coordinate from the working page to the Notepad form before copy&pasting. It should have read:

Copy&paste 33.0n74.7w, 33.8n74.4w, 34.6n74.3w, 35.3n74.0w, 36.2n73.6w-36.8n73.1w, 36.8n73.1w-37.5n72.5w, 37.5n72.5w-38.2n71.8w, 38.2n71.8w-39.1n70.8w, yqb, 39.1n70.8w-43.7n65.17w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh lord!.You did not know that Igor is like the most highly anticapated storm of the season?.You should read what the name means.It means"worrior with bow,and arrow charging into battle",and remember that meteorlogic way that if a name sounds scary it will likely be something scary.That is why if Igor is a deformed 40mph tropical storm many will be dissapointed.and to be honest I also have anticapation.......Also conditions in the atlantic are favorable for more storms to form....
LOL! well im confused cause my niece is named Katrina and she was the sweetest girl on earth when that storm hit. Now she's a smart mouth little spoiled brat. I blame it on the storm.
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
Gaston Wind Field

I'd wager the surface winds aren't that round, actually. Nor have a single center of circulation, right now, as well.
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Quoting InTheCone:


Have a good evening!
Seconded.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


LOL, we won't say what kinda storm huh?
one exsample is the "k" storm of 05,and the "I" storm of 08....
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Quoting StormW:
Out for the evening gang!

I'll most likely have a synopsis tomorrow.

Have a good night!


Have a good evening!
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Quoting hulazigzag:
why? I hope its not another "gut" feeling.
Oh lord!.You did not know that Igor is like the most highly anticapated storm of the season?.You should read what the name means.It means"worrior with bow,and arrow charging into battle",and remember that meteorlogic way that if a name sounds scary it will likely be something scary.That is why if Igor is a deformed 40mph tropical storm many will be dissapointed.and to be honest I also have anticapation.......Also conditions in the atlantic are favorable for more storms to form....
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572. JLPR2
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
OK I'll admit I'm a totally out of it old geezer. What does XDsignify?


It's an internet smiley that usually means laughter, the X is closed eyes, the D is the mouth.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
OK I'll admit I'm a totally out of it old geezer. What does XDsignify?
It"s like LOL I think but I am still trying to figure out what MEH is.
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Quoting StormW:
Out for the evening gang!

I'll most likely have a synopsis tomorrow.

Have a good night!


It will be most interesting to see what a intelligent forecaster has to say tomorrow in liew of the just guessers. Good night Chief.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Sometimes,a cluster can turn into a serious storm......


LOL, we won't say what kinda storm huh?
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While I do truly appreciate StromW's post and analysis as many here tonight do.


Let us all not forget that back in July


DeatinJeff also predicted that he felt at least 3 named storms would occur this year and at LEAST one of them would be Fish and one of them could or could not be DOOM.


The FloodDude concurred with DestinJ and even added that there could be a storm in the GOM - unless there ended up not beiong one in the GOM.


Ike promised if there was a storm and he thought there would be at least 5 or maybe 35 storms, - that he would try to post the recon pics / data


And please don't forget that the K-Man guy has posted numerous times that IF a Cane got into the Carib, he would start drinking early and watch it as close as he could with one eye closed...



Enjoyed reading through the blog tonight, sincerely did.

And thank's to the posters mentioned above, - your insights and humor is what keeps us lurkers coming here for the read and info.



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Quoting JLPR2:


Quick, the paper bag! XD
LOL!
OK I'll admit I'm a totally out of it old geezer. What does XDsignify?
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
564. JLPR2
The OFCI track is back, isn't that the one from the NHC?



ah dang, the map went blank :|
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Quoting StormW:
Out for the evening gang!

I'll most likely have a synopsis tomorrow.

Have a good night!


Good night Storm!
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Quoting StormW:
Out for the evening gang!

I'll most likely have a synopsis tomorrow.

Have a good night!


Good night Storm!
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Quoting StormW:
Out for the evening gang!

I'll most likely have a synopsis tomorrow.

Have a good night!


Night Storm. I look forward to reading it tomorrow.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


No over reaction, it's a cluster you know what out there!
Sometimes,a cluster can turn into a serious storm......
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Quoting 7544:


IGOR is in there somwhere he will be the one to watch imo
why? I hope its not another "gut" feeling.
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Quoting StormW:
Out for the evening gang!

I'll most likely have a synopsis tomorrow.

Have a good night!
Good night and look forward to your thoughts tomorrow.
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Gaston Wind Field

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555. JLPR2
Night storm, will be waiting to read it! :D
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Quoting Chicklit:
omg, i hope i'm not overreacting...



No over reaction, it's a cluster you know what out there!
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551. 7544
Quoting Chicklit:
omg, i hope i'm not overreacting...



IGOR is in there somwhere he will be the one to watch imo
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6871
Quoting Chicklit:
omg, i hope i'm not overreacting...

I see future Igor over africa.The most highly anticapated storm of the season.If it turns out to be a 40mph deformed storm some will be dissapointed.....
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The only preparation if given enough time before a category five hurricane hits is to get out of dodge and pray to God, that the hurricane weakens in time. I think people would have taken Earl more seriously if he had become a category five hurricane at some point. Wind shear, dry air and a nicely timed EWRC took care of any concerns we had as Earl was nearing the NC coastline last night. One of these days that luck will run out for us and we will have a category three hurricane barreling towards New England.
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Quoting Chicklit:
omg, i hope i'm not overreacting...



+10 :)
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Quoting pilotguy1:


Retarded. Duh, Stupid is what stupid does.
speaking of did anyone else watch OZ last night from hatteras
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Quoting pilotguy1:


Retarded. Duh, Stupid is what stupid does.
All due respect to Floodman, But... Goodbye. Power poof.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Didn't say they were the only puppets and didn't mean to start something. Sorry
I caught what you were referring to, and I agree. But yes, we might want to drop it, don't want to get off topic, er.... I mean tropic!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.