Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl's rain bands move over New England; Gaston regenerating?

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:09 PM GMT on September 03, 2010

Hurricane Earl has remained roughly constant in intensity over the past six hours, as it heads north-northeast at 20 mph towards New England. The latest center fix from the Hurricane Hunters, at 1:14pm EDT, found the pressure had remained constant since late morning, at 961 mb. Long range radar out of Long Island shows that Earl's outermost spiral bands have already brought as much as one inch of rain to portions of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with lesser amounts on Long Island and in Connecticut.

Figure 1. Afternoon radar image from the Long Island, New York radar.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track. Earl is still expected to pass 20 - 50 miles southeast of Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, at about 2am Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast of wind shear continues to show that shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Saturday. Ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C early Saturday morning, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will probably be a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England, and have 65 mph winds on Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada. I have no substantive changes to make to the impacts likely for New England and Canada that I discussed in this morning's post.

Figure 2. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 3:30pm EDT Friday, September 3, 2010. Note the 15 mph (13 kt) asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 20 mph to the north-northeast at the time. The highest contour had top winds of 65 kt (75 mph) surrounding the "+" on the east side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds on the left (northwest) side were just 52 knots (60 mph.) The asymmetry was greater--about 20 mph--at 6:30 am EDT this morning. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona has changed little this afternoon. Satellite loops continue to show that Fiona is a naked swirl of low clouds with just one diminishing spot of heavy thunderstorms on the southwest side of the circulation. High wind shear from Earl should continue to affect Fiona over the next two days, and will probably destroy the storm on Saturday.

Figure 3. Afternoon satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gaston may be regenerating
Recent satellite imagery continues to show that Gaston's remains are re-organizing. Gaston has a broad surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air lies to the west and north of Gaston's remains, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where the atmosphere is relatively moist, so this shear will be less harmful than usual for development. NHC is giving Gaston a 50% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Sunday; I put these odds higher, at 60%. The GFS, UKMET, and GFDL models develop Gaston and predict it will move though the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. The NOGAPS and HWRF models also develop Gaston, but predict a slower motion, bringing the storm near the northern Lesser Antilles 6 - 7 days from now. Given the steady increase in organization of Gaston's remains today and high degree of model support for regeneration, I expect Gaston will be a tropical storm again, early next week.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verdes Islands, is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear has dropped to 20 - 25 knots, and will decrease to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Saturday through Monday. The system will move over the Cape Verdes Islands over the weekend, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain squalls. NHC is giving the wave a 30% chance of developing by Sunday afternoon. Several models develop 99L into a tropical depression, but head it northwest into a region of very high wind shear that destroys the system by Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Saturday by 1pm.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC (OBXNCWEATHER)

Gas station in Nags Head, NC that fell victim to Hurricane Earl's winds.

Earl's waves (StormJunkie)

Categories: Hurricane

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951. Chicklit 11:11 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Navy's got 09L Gaston up; CIMSS has only Invest 99. cimss Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

952. lennit 11:12 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
this season so far and 1995 patterns are very similar , look back in 95 trof was constantly knocking heights down on Sub-T ridge woop to the N they would go at around 60. ridge would pumup for next system on its S flank.. trof would erode and Woop to the north it would go.. looks like we are gonna have 2 different seasons this year. to may many systems at one tropic can't reload for a long tracker Member Since: October 28, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 101

953. WxLogic 11:12 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Good Morning... Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4667

954. breald 11:13 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
All is good here in southern New England. It appears we will have a non tropic tracking couple of days but we have a lot coming off the African coast that looks nasty. Wait and see game at this point. Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5298

956. Chicklit 11:20 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Glad to see New England spared. Hope you all enjoy the long weekend. Gaston is chugging along this a.m. IR Loop May run out of dry real estate only to find a big blob of SAL shielding the Caribbean. morning wxlogic Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

957. IKE 11:21 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
2010...... Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

958. Gearsts 11:26 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting Chicklit: Glad to see New England spared. Hope you all enjoy the long weekend. Gaston is chugging along this a.m. IR Loop May run out of dry real estate only to find a big blob of SAL shielding the Caribbean. morning wxlogic That will move west to sw as gaston gets closer to the caribbean Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1996

959. GeoffreyWPB 11:27 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9122

960. IKE 11:29 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
2010 to date... 7-3-2. 2005 to date... 13-6-4(by 9-6). 2010 lower 48 hits, so far.... Bonnie. 2005 lower 48 hits, so far.... Arlene, Cindy, Dennis, Katrina. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

961. lennit 11:30 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting StormW: ??? look back 95 has been the best analog year so far, go and do a a 95 post analysis and you will see the patterns are very simaliar. the sub-trop ridge is not that strong and is displaced more East yet is still the dominant steering mechanism the trofs are digging not progressing, into a zonal flow. thats why the GFS is recurving everything at about 60W . the Sub-T ridge is being bullied this year, unlike 2004 there where a few hand-offs because of strong Sub-T and zonal flows off East coast Member Since: October 28, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 101

962. CybrTeddy 11:31 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
2010's no 2005, but its on pair with highly active and deadly years like 2007, 1998, 2003 and so on. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20240

964. IKE 11:36 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Cape Hatteras observations for yesterday.... Sea Level Pressure: Sea Level Pressure 29.45 in Wind: Wind Speed 23 mph () Max Wind Speed 39 mph Max Gust Speed 66 mph Visibility 3.4 miles Events Rain ...................................... The airport had...Max Gust Speed 56 mph....on the 2nd of September. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

965. IKE 11:39 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
For today at..... History for Cape Cod CGAS, MA...Cape Cod,MA..... Max Gust Speed 34 mph Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

966. lennit 11:40 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting StormW: That's fixin to change. we shall see, if Gaston to be stays weak he may bust trof and develop thats what i meant by 2 seasons a East Atl. and then a SW and Gulf but as of right now to me anything that develops in East atl will feel that weakness. the Sub-T ridge in its state right now is good for about 5 days esp with one storm after another that weakness has a hard time filling in and bridging Member Since: October 28, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 101

967. breald 11:42 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting IKE: For today at..... History for Cape Cod CGAS, MA...Cape Cod,MA..... Max Gust Speed 34 mph Hyannis had 60 mph. Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5298

968. tkeith 11:42 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
That front make it to you yet Ike? Feels a little drier her this mornin, but I dont think the front has passed yet. Tommorrow should have dew points in the 40's to 50's. Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8839

971. IKE 11:43 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Gaston is taking his clothes off...Link Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

973. IKE 11:45 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting tkeith: That front make it to you yet Ike? Feels a little drier her this mornin, but I dont think the front has passed yet. Tommorrow should have dew points in the 40's to 50's. It's at my doorstep....low tonight...62 to 65 here. I thought you were vacationing over here this weekend? Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

974. AwakeInMaryland 11:45 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Good morning! Happy to see Earl going bye-bye, except for N.Scotia. I just saw this. Powerful 7.1 quake hits New Zealand's South Island By RAY LILLEY, Associated Press Writer – Fri Sep 3, 7:52 pm ET Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918

976. IKE 11:46 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting P451: Second only behind "re ported" :) """flagged and reported""" lol. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

977. tkeith 11:47 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting IKE: It's at my doorstep....low tonight...62 to 65 here. I thought you were vacationing over here this weekend? wife got sick. took her to the Doc yesterday. Went to see her sister early in the week the whole bunch had a cold. everybody got sick but me...must be all that clean livin :) Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8839

978. IKE 11:48 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting tkeith: wife got sick. took her to the Doc yesterday. Went to see her sister early in the week the whole bunch had a cold. everybody got sick but me...must be all that clean livin :) Sorry to hear that. Hope all of them get well. ............................................. ...EARL VERY NEAR NOVA SCOTIA... 8:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 4 Location: 42.9�N 65.8�W Max sustained: 70 mph Moving: NE at 30 mph Min pressure: 965 mb Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

979. tkeith 11:49 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Mornin AIM, I see hurrcane season 2010 didn't leave yall out :) Earl got close... Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8839

981. AwakeInMaryland 11:54 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting tkeith: Mornin AIM, I see hurrcane season 2010 didn't leave yall out :) Earl got close... Soooooo close it brought me running back to WUnderland to get the "real" skinny! Good to see everyone old and new. I got that summer cold about 2 months ago! And still have a cough. It's a real "B"! I saw the doc yesterday, after a Z-Pac antibiotic didn't touch it. FYI, my doc says it seems like everyone has it, the associated cough can last up to 6 weeks. He didn't prescribe another antibiotic, but a strong cough syrup if I need to sleep. Asked me if I was allergic to vicadin, yikes! I haven't even filled the scrip yet...luckily or not, vicadin doesn't do much for me. The doc asked me if I was sad I was missing out, lol. I hope your wife and family will recover faster! Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918

982. QMiami 11:55 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Member Since: May 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 124

983. IKE 11:55 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SAT SEP 4 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE SABLE NOVA SCOTIA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GASTON CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM IN THIS AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. HOWEVER... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

984. Cotillion 11:56 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
African wave slightly down, BoC slightly up, ex-Gaston the same. Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300

985. tkeith 11:57 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Thanks AIM and Ike. She's mostly P.O.'d cause she got sick during vacation...lol. Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8839

986. aquak9 12:04 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
g'morning wu-bloggers worldwide Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25007

987. IKE 12:04 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Gaston is losing his convection...Link ........................................... Quoting tkeith: Thanks AIM and Ike. She's mostly P.O.'d cause she got sick during vacation...lol. Just went outside. Feels like the front has made it through here...winds have shifted to the west and NW. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

988. IKE 12:05 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

990. tkeith 12:07 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting IKE: Gaston is losing his convection...Link ........................................... Just went outside. Feels like the front has made it through here...winds have shifted to the west and NW. It oughta be a nice 3 day weekend here on the coast Ike. We deserve after this blazing hot summer. Mornin Aqua :) Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8839

991. AwakeInMaryland 12:07 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Just went outside. Feels like the front has made it through here...winds have shifted to the west and NW. G'mornin' Ike, G'mornin', Aqua -- yes, it feels wonderful. But we're disappointed we didn't even get any rain from Earl (the shore did). We got pounded weeks ago, and then nada. Tomatoes are tasty, but small now. Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918

992. PanhandleChuck 12:07 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Holy Crap Batman! Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183

993. aquak9 12:11 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
handsome men, beautiful women- love the curls, AIM- ad it's a nice morning here in NE Fla as well. Ike, I really enjoy it when you post the stats. "That's gonna change"...uh NO, it's not. Sorry but I'd rather see everyone at a huge crow buffet, than deal with any major hits. Crow and Fish. Yum Yum. Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25007

994. KYDan 12:12 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Gaston has quite a bit of dry air on the west side to overcome. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 96

995. IKE 12:15 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Central Park,NYC,NY.....rain from Earl.... Precipitation 0.00 in. Philadelphia,PA.... Precipitation 0.00 in .............................................. Morning aqua and everybody else. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

996. Cotillion 12:15 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Gaston... a little blob in the Atlantic surrounded by a desert. Reminds me of the little engine that could, 96L of 2007 (though ultimately, it couldn't). I think it was 2007 anyway. Battled dry air for about a week. Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300

997. palmasdelrio 12:15 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting IKE: Gaston is losing his convection...Link ........................................... Just went outside. Feels like the front has made it through here...winds have shifted to the west and NW. Why do you say that? I don't know how to read maps, etc. but the blob that was Gaston sure looks pretty ominous. I thought that from the looks of it, it was a td by now. Member Since: May 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 178

998. rarepearldesign 12:16 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Well Earl is just off the coast of Southeast tip of Nova Scotia. I knew it was going to come east and ride more central into NS. Came even more east than I thought. Anyways, I am 25kms outside Halifax and we are expected to get the brunt of the NE quadrant...winds are picking up!! Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 145

999. Neapolitan 12:17 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
So far in 2010, we've accumulated the following: Named storms: 7 Hurricanes: 3 Major hurricanes: 2 ACE: 62 Over the years 1950-2009, the averages are: Named storms: 10.4 Hurricanes: 6.2 Major hurricanes: 2.7 ACE: 101 Meaning, obviously, the season will be considered average from a climatological point of view with just the following: Further named storms: 3.4 Further hurricanes: 3.2 Further major hurricanes: .7 Further ACE: 39 In just the past 13 days, we've seen the following: Named storms: 4 Hurricanes: 2 Major hurricanes: 2 ACE: 52 Meaning that with the peak of the season a week away, much activity in the tropics, and multiple indicators pointing to increased activity to come, we should meet the criteria for an average season in two to three weeks...leaving the remainder of September, a likely hyperactive October, and a still-active November to add to the totals. A "busted" season, huh? ;-) Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11153

1000. AwakeInMaryland 12:19 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
HA! Aqua, flattering pic taken by hubby. Pic was in May. Curls turned to frizz bush in record-breaking Metro area heat. Cut it all off (kinda' miss the mess, but it grows). I'm loving the crow but take fish-oil caps. A friend from NOAA (Washington State) went down to the Gulf to sniff and "approve or disapprove" the catch. Very scientific, lol! Trying to decide whether to re-up as a disaster reservist or take a "day-job" at a new division of Petco. Nothing worse than "stand-by" mode and not working, but don't want to wishcast destruction for sure! Any thoughts on the rest of the season? (I do like the fur-kids). Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918

1001. tkeith 12:21 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting palmasdelrio: Why do you say that? I don't know how to read maps, etc. but the blob that was Gaston sure looks pretty ominous. I thought that from the looks of it, it was a td by now. Gaston has had sort of an identity crisis since he came on the scene... I dont think he knows what he wants to be when he grows up...yet:) Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8839

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