Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

On the visible sat if you zoom it closer you can see that Gaston is developing new convection near 47w 17N and 46w 16w. Maybe on the new frames to come we will see new convection growing there. He is far from over.

Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning, I asked about the Sal when it was N of the Islands yesterday, and was told it should move W or SW. Now I read that there is Easterly shear. Im going with the Euro keeping Low(Gaston} weak and going W for possible developement in the Western Carribean.

there is a lot of "energy" in the W Carib, If Gaston makes it there, I would be very worried about R.I

Quoting stribe37:
The Canadian Hurricane Centre is still calling Earl a hurricane, interestingly enough. Apparently they sent out a plane this AM into the eyewall and found winds at hurricane strength (they were explaining this on The Weather Network - Canada's equivalent of TWC), so the CHC is differing from the NHC on this.

Link

Excerpt:

As for the subject of Miami forecasting 60 knots and Halifax
forecasting 65 knots for the storm, we maintain the slightly
Stronger winds based on the abnormally hot and humid airmass over
The Maritimes which will allow Earl to hold onto its tropical
character. As well, water temperatures over which the highest
Winds of the storm will travel are running 2 to 4 degrees
Above normal. The buffering effect of the usually cooler
Waters will be less with this storm. Thus, gusty winds,
Possibly hurricane force, could overspread Nova Scotia with
The wind flow off the water from the south.

Good morning

Gaston has become a shrinking violet this morning and is diminishing in both size and convection at a rather rapid rate. It seems that a combination of dry air, a fast forward motion and perhaps a little Easterly shear is taking a toll on his structure. All of this coming during the heat of the day as well.

The NHC will likely lower his chances of becoming a tropical cyclone at the next update and TD status today now seems unlikely as well.

Still, this area of the Atlantic has been known for being inhospitable this year and as I said yesterday I do not expect Gaston to redevelop until he reaches the zone between 50 and 55 W.

Another watch and wait day today.

Quoting DestinJeff:
Gaston better hurry and find his name-tag, or else we'll be left with no names on the map ... and we all know what next week is, right?

A chart comes to mind.

Some sort of stationary frontal boundary in the Bay of Campeche is showing signs of persistent convection and will need to be monitored for development as it moves slowly northward over time. Right now there is a real lack of any organized 850mb vorticity and this likely do to the fact that the TD 10E in the Pacific ocean is falling apart as this vorticity axis is lied across Mexico. Once this low moves more northward with time development will become more probable. Wind shear is a light 5-10 knots with a developing upper level anticyclone over the region, so environmental conditions are favorable for intensification. Will continue to monitor the systems progress as the NHC has highlighted this system with a 20% percent chance. This seems reasonable.

Thanks Storm! What a treat...get up, get coffee and there's your analysis. Have a
great weekend..

Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL STORM EARL AND FRIENDS SYNOPSIS SEP. 04, 2010 ISSUED 9:05 A.M.

tropical Storm Earl and friends...lol Thanks for the update Storm....and the warning on recurvatures! Have a great weekend!

Thanks, StormW

Still, this area of the Atlantic has been known for being inhospitable this year and as I said yesterday I do not expect Gaston to redevelop until he reaches the zone between 50 and 55 W.

If he stays together moving at present speed...he's gonna get there pretty quick.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NHC track on Gaston


AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 0 154N 440W 30
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 12 158N 459W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 24 159N 480W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 36 161N 506W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 48 160N 533W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 72 155N 585W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 96 160N 625W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 120 173N 662W 25

Are those the NHC wind forecasts next to the long/lat?

Quoting RecordSeason:
1058:

At the present insane speed of 20 to 22mph, Gaston should reach 50W sometime around 0315UTC.

Gaston essentially has until 63W to organize. If not, history shows that he is unlikely to do so until after 75W. He is being driven by strong trades right now and I haven't had time to look at the forecast wind speeds during the next 24 hours.

Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Some sort of stationary frontal boundary in the Bay of Campeche is showing signs of persistent convection and will need to be monitored for development as it moves slowly northward over time. Right now there is a real lack of any organized 850mb vorticity and this likely do to the fact that the TD 10E in the Pacific ocean is falling apart as this vorticity axis is lied across Mexico. Once this low moves more northward with time development will become more probable. Wind shear is a light 5-10 knots with a developing upper level anticyclone over the region, so environmental conditions are favorable for intensification. Will continue to monitor the systems progress as the NHC has highlighted this system with a 20% percent chance. This seems reasonable.

Could be getting some unexpected home brew.

I'm out and GO NOLES!

Quoting IKE:


Are those the NHC wind forecasts next to the long/lat?

Apparently they don't believe he will come to much by the time he enters the Caribbean.

I will check back later. Not much to look at for the time being.

Quoting ElConando:
I'm out and GO NOLES!

FSU!FSU!FSU!FSU!

On this very saturday 6 years ago, folks in FL were bracing for hurricane frances which was just offshore

Quoting kmanislander:


Apparently they don't believe he will come to much by the time he enters the Caribbean.

I thought that was the winds but wanted to be sure.

What you posted above may be true...."Gaston essentially has until 63W to organize. If not, history shows that he is unlikely to do so until after 75W."

Severe weather in Victoria and South Australia.
986hPa Low off Victoria.
Southern NSW is on weather alert.

6 years ago on this very day, hurricane frances was just offshore the florida coast, near w palm beach. It would make landfall the following morning.

I hope Gaston isnt one of those who stays weak, and then trecks across the Atlantic and blows up in the Carribean or GOM. Fredric did that back in 1979 and came over the Western tip of Cuba as a depression. He then blew up to a Cat 4 in the GOM and landed as a strong Cat 3 in southern Al on September 13th. This is just an observation of a past Hurricane and not to be taken as a track for Gaston. Hopefully he will go away peacefully.

Quoting IKE:


I thought that was the winds but wanted to be sure.

What you posted above may be true...."Gaston essentially has until 63W to organize. If not, history shows that he is unlikely to do so until after 75W."

Take a look at this buoy. Gaston is due N of it right now and the wind has swung right around to the West. All he needs is persistent deep convection to get reclassified.

whats keeping Gaston from his name?

Quoting kmanislander:


Take a look at this buoy. Gaston is due N of it right now and the wind has swung right around to the West. All he needs is persistent deep convection to get reclassified.

I agree.

Blog is in snooze mode today.

snooze mode last night it was down for about 4 hrs

Quoting IKE:


I agree.

Blog is in snooze mode today.

...zzzzzzzzzzzz

Earl made landfall.

I guess it is the lack of action in the tropics (for today) and its a holiday weekend. Go out and have some fun and get some sun!! lol

Ike do you think the Gulf Coast will possibly be threatened by a "home brew" or CV TC this season?

My page is whacked on all the posts after Tropicfreak's embedded video. It's normal above it.

Must be my ancient I.E. issues again...

Gaston still has a well defined LLC and though sheared, from E , the center is not as far exposed as even Danielle or Earl at some point.Gaston imo has high chance to become a TD/TS again and probably a major hurricane once it enter the Caribbean, jmo.

Wow, Earl actually looks better than he did yesterday. I hope those people are prepared and stay safe.

Hurricane Katrina formed as Tropical Depression Twelve over the southeastern Bahamas on August 23, 2005 as the result of an interaction of a tropical wave and the remains of Tropical Depression Ten. It didn't look like much more than convection over a former TD.

Quoting KanKunKid:

Rhode Island?

Rapid intensification. LOL Rhode Island :P

Good morning all :) Was nice to wake up to sunshine this morning instead of 80 mph wind gusts, even though the storm was exciting :)

Hope NS fairs as well as NC did... best wishes to friends up there...

x-Gaston is so cute this a.m. :)

Is there such a thing as a "Tropical Hangover"?

at 1079 my page went wacky also..
what happened to make a change at post 1079>?

Quoting seflagamma:
at 1079 my page went wacky also..
what happened to make a change at post 1079>?

Could be IE, IE is not my primary browser for 5 years.