Earl's rain bands move over New England; Gaston regenerating?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:09 PM GMT on September 03, 2010

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Hurricane Earl has remained roughly constant in intensity over the past six hours, as it heads north-northeast at 20 mph towards New England. The latest center fix from the Hurricane Hunters, at 1:14pm EDT, found the pressure had remained constant since late morning, at 961 mb. Long range radar out of Long Island shows that Earl's outermost spiral bands have already brought as much as one inch of rain to portions of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with lesser amounts on Long Island and in Connecticut.


Figure 1. Afternoon radar image from the Long Island, New York radar.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track. Earl is still expected to pass 20 - 50 miles southeast of Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, at about 2am Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast of wind shear continues to show that shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Saturday. Ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C early Saturday morning, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will probably be a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England, and have 65 mph winds on Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada. I have no substantive changes to make to the impacts likely for New England and Canada that I discussed in this morning's post.


Figure 2. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 3:30pm EDT Friday, September 3, 2010. Note the 15 mph (13 kt) asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 20 mph to the north-northeast at the time. The highest contour had top winds of 65 kt (75 mph) surrounding the "+" on the east side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds on the left (northwest) side were just 52 knots (60 mph.) The asymmetry was greater--about 20 mph--at 6:30 am EDT this morning. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona has changed little this afternoon. Satellite loops continue to show that Fiona is a naked swirl of low clouds with just one diminishing spot of heavy thunderstorms on the southwest side of the circulation. High wind shear from Earl should continue to affect Fiona over the next two days, and will probably destroy the storm on Saturday.


Figure 3. Afternoon satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gaston may be regenerating
Recent satellite imagery continues to show that Gaston's remains are re-organizing. Gaston has a broad surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air lies to the west and north of Gaston's remains, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where the atmosphere is relatively moist, so this shear will be less harmful than usual for development. NHC is giving Gaston a 50% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Sunday; I put these odds higher, at 60%. The GFS, UKMET, and GFDL models develop Gaston and predict it will move though the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. The NOGAPS and HWRF models also develop Gaston, but predict a slower motion, bringing the storm near the northern Lesser Antilles 6 - 7 days from now. Given the steady increase in organization of Gaston's remains today and high degree of model support for regeneration, I expect Gaston will be a tropical storm again, early next week.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verdes Islands, is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear has dropped to 20 - 25 knots, and will decrease to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Saturday through Monday. The system will move over the Cape Verdes Islands over the weekend, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain squalls. NHC is giving the wave a 30% chance of developing by Sunday afternoon. Several models develop 99L into a tropical depression, but head it northwest into a region of very high wind shear that destroys the system by Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Saturday by 1pm.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC (OBXNCWEATHER)
Gas station in Nags Head, NC that fell victim to Hurricane Earl's winds.
Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC
Earl's waves (StormJunkie)
Earl's waves

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SAB a little higher with the T-number of ex-Gaston...now up to T1.5 (up from T1.0 from 17:45 UTC). Still waiting on TAFB...

03/2345 UTC 15.4N 42.8W T1.5/1.5 GASTON
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Quoting StormW:
Anyone notice anything about 99L?

Can't wait until it gets further west to see if that south portion is gonna be the dominate circulation

LINK


Okay, I'll preface this, I know next to nothing, but am trying to learn. It looks like it's almost coming off as a TD or TS. It looks bigger already then Gaston was when he was named. sigh, I have sooo much to learn!
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Quoting Caymanfishnut:


Seems everyones catching fish except me, which is about right lol
Quoting StormW:
Anyone notice anything about 99L?

Can't wait until it gets further west to see if that south portion is gonna be the dominate circulation

LINK

Starting to consolidate more south.

Does anyone see Earl taking a turn to the NNE or a wobble?
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
389. Bonz
I could be wrong, but it seemed the NCH put the location of the invest at the northern part. I remember looking at the image earlier today and saying to myself, "the lower part looks much better."

Quoting StormW:
Anyone notice anything about 99L?

Can't wait until it gets further west to see if that south portion is gonna be the dominate circulation

LINK
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U.S. Mainland Hurricane Strikes by State, 1851-2004

The following table is derived from NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS TPC-4:

THE DEADLIEST, COSTLIEST, AND MOST INTENSE
UNITED STATES HURRICANES FROM 1851 TO 2004
(AND OTHER FREQUENTLY REQUESTED HURRICANE FACTS)
by
Eric S. Blake, Jerry D. Jarrell(retired) and Edward N. Rappaport
NOAA/NWS/ Tropical Prediction Center
Miami, Florida

Christopher W. Landsea
NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division
Miami, Florida

Full Report available in HTML and PDF formats.
Link
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387. JLPR2
Quoting StormW:


Splitting into two?
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Can you imagine if the blog had been going then?


Yeah...tons of calls of "Eastcaster!" ;-)
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Quoting StormW:
Anyone notice anything about 99L?

Can't wait until it gets further west to see if that south portion is gonna be the dominate circulation

LINK

Are you talking about the massive blob south of 10n, is that part of invest 99?
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Quoting StormW:
Anyone notice anything about 99L?

Can't wait until it gets further west to see if that south portion is gonna be the dominate circulation

LINK

It's going out to sea ? North?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Environmental conditions would have to be absolutely perfect, but the OHC is definitely very staggering.
Well thanks to sinking air no storms have been really taking shape in the carribean.But if our saving grace goes away...then um..yeaaaah...I don't see that painting a pretty picture.....
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These are all the seasons that have had a lesser amount of A.C.E than 2010 so far. (We have more A.C.E than the total amount of 17 seasons since 1950 if you're wondering.)

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Quoting teammc:

November hurricanes of note:
The most extraordinary November hurricane was "Wrong-Way Lenny", which hit the northern Leeward Islands as a strong Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds on November 17-18, 1999. Lenny was the first storm to have an extended west-to-east track across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea in the 135-year Atlantic tropical cyclone record, and was the strongest November hurricane on record.



Can you imagine if the blog had been going then?
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Quoting Bonz:


Who was complaining? I *loved* the cold winter down here. Hope it does it this year too!
Well their were some on the blog.They know who they are.......
Quoting fldude99:
So who cares about Earl..Fiona...bottom line is: will Gaston be a major hurricane in the GOM? That's what everyone wants to know..
Geez your just going to ditch Fiona,and Earl like that.An way it's to Early to tell if Gaston will make it into the gulf.However I can see it making it into the carribean.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Just went down to the local pond and fished for bass for about 30minutes. I caught 1 (small about a pound) and by son caught 1 about 3 pounds.


Seems everyones catching fish except me, which is about right lol
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It even sounds weird having the TWC Tropical people saying "Massachusetts"...What hurricane or TS hit Mass in the early eighties? I remember one when I was growing up there but can't remember the name.
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 760
Quoting StormW:


Really?

And my point is, the same as I keep seeing on here...those METS should do their research, before making a blanket statement like that...20th century hurricane or not. Hurricane don't really care what century it is.


Agreed. The following major hurricanes made landfall in Lousiana after September 1:

1855: Hurricane Five.
1879: Hurricane Four
1909: Grand Isle Hurricane
1915: New Orleans Hurricane
1964: Hurricane Hilda
1965: Hurricane Betsy
1974: Hurricane Carmen
2005: Hurricane Rita

...and, of course, the 1893 hurricane that Storm already mentioned. And these, mind you, are the post-September 1 majors; there are many, many more Cat 1s, Cat 2s, and Tropical Storms.

As Adam Savage and Jamie Hyneman would say: this myth is busted...
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Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Imagine a TD with a vigorous low level circulation enters the central Caribbean Sea moving slowly west over those extremely warm and deep SSTs. WOW, a crack at Wilma's record in intensity and rapid deepening records.
Environmental conditions would have to be absolutely perfect, but the OHC is definitely very staggering.
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Former Gaston now has a red hatch....
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Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Imagine a TD with a vigorous low level circulation enters the central Caribbean Sea moving slowly west over those extremely warm and deep SSTs. WOW, a crack at Wilma's record in intensity and rapid deepening records.


I'd rather imagine it moving slowly into about 30 knots of shear and a wall of dry air as it dies a painful death.
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 760
Quoting BDAwx:
November cat 5 in northwest Caribbean sea? sounds reasonable for this year - especially with such TCHP going into September, even more likely if it doesn't get used by November.

Also its never happened before only means it hasn't happened yet - records are there to be broken.
It wouldn't surprise me to see,a Lenny or Paloma part two this year.Those november storms can be quite tricky and sneaky.
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368. JLPR2
Quoting fldude99:
So who cares about Earl..Fiona...bottom line is: will Gaston be a major hurricane in the GOM? That's what everyone wants to know..


Not really...
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Imagine a TD with a vigorous low level circulation enters the central Caribbean Sea moving slowly west over those extremely warm and deep SSTs. WOW, a crack at Wilma's record in intensity and rapid deepening records.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
AL, 09, 2010090400, , BEST, 0, 152N, 426W, 25, 1008, LO,

AL, 08, 2010090400, , BEST, 0, 309N, 652W, 30, 1013, TD,

AL, 07, 2010090400, , BEST, 0, 389N, 709W, 60, 961, TS,
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So who cares about Earl..Fiona...bottom line is: will Gaston be a major hurricane in the GOM? That's what everyone wants to know..
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Nope. Cayman Islands.
lol, sorry
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Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Does anyone think that Hurricane Wilma could have reached maximum sustained winds of 200mph at anyone point at her peak intensity? I think there was a period where the HH weren't in there, where the NHC said the pressure could have been around 880mb.


I dont think a 2mb pressure drop would have made her winds go up 15mph

I do think it is possible her pressure was at one point lower than 880mb though too

as great as the recon observations can be, they are all timing too because I think there have been several storms where we dont really know the true intensity

Floyd to me was a CAT 5 for a few hours, but no recon plane was there to verify it
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Quoting XStormX:

lol, i thought you were in Connecticut.
Nope. Cayman Islands.
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359. BDAwx
November cat 5 in northwest Caribbean sea? sounds reasonable for this year - especially with such TCHP going into September, even more likely if it doesn't get used by November.

Also its never happened before only means it hasn't happened yet - records are there to be broken.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I know you meant Gaston and I guess I am as ready as I will ever be. Just would have to board up and get gas for generator if necessary. We have been having strong thunderstorms off and on for a few days and it is HOT.

lol, i thought you were in Connecticut.
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Does anyone think that Hurricane Wilma could have reached maximum sustained winds of 200mph at anyone point at her peak intensity? I think there was a period where the HH weren't in there, where the NHC said the pressure could have been around 880mb.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564

November hurricanes of note:
The most extraordinary November hurricane was "Wrong-Way Lenny", which hit the northern Leeward Islands as a strong Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds on November 17-18, 1999. Lenny was the first storm to have an extended west-to-east track across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea in the 135-year Atlantic tropical cyclone record, and was the strongest November hurricane on record.

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355. Bonz
Quoting washingtonian115:
And you Floridians were complaining about the cold.


Who was complaining? I *loved* the cold winter down here. Hope it does it this year too!
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Quoting Neapolitan:
It was just a few weeks ago that we were talking about seasons with very high ("hyperactive") ACE that didn't have their second hurricanes until fairly late in the season. 1950 ended with an ACE of 243--one of the highest ever--yet didn't have a second hurricane until 8/20. 1998 and 1999 ended with 182 and 177, respectively, yet didn't form second hurricanes until 8/25 and 8/22. 1961 didn't have a second hurricane until September 3rd--today--yet ended with 205. Now here we are this year with a second hurricane not forming until 8/23. Funny how that works.

Some more sobering thoughts:

--The Atlantic A.C.E. (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) for 2010 has reached 60, which indicates a 500% increase in just 12 days.

--This year's A.C.E. has already exceeded the totals for both that of 1997--the lightest year of the current "active" hurricane period--and last year, 2009.

--This year's A.C.E. is already higher than the totals for that of 16 of the past 60 seasons.

--Even with the late start, this year's ACE already stands at more than 60% of the 60-year average.

All this, and we're still a full week away from the climatological peak of the season...a season that, by all indications, will very likely be extremely long and back-loaded.

(And one more boring stat: it took 83 days for this year's ACE to hit 10. Only four days later, it passed 20. The next day, it passed 30, then 40, 50, and 60 each followed at two-day intervals.)

neapolitian, your posts are possibly the most interesting and thought-provoking on the blog. Good stats!
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The leaves here in D.C are changing colors earlier,just like last year...and we all know how that winter turned out to be.I'm not liking it.I think our winter here in D.C will likely be slightly below average.It snowed so many days this year,and last that I had lost count.And you Floridians were complaining about the cold.Come up here to D.C for a week in Feberuary and you'll really feel the cold.
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I couldn't remember the name. I know I lived through it.
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Quoting XStormX:

Are you ready for Earl, hey how's the weather doing over there?
I know you meant Gaston and I guess I am as ready as I will ever be. Just would have to board up and get gas for generator if necessary. We have been having strong thunderstorms off and on for a few days and it is HOT.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


We'll probably be past that.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
October? We can get to 100 with one LT Cape Verde type hurricane. To give you an idea, Ivan contributed 70 in ACE. We should be by 100 in less than 7-14 days if the African wave train continues to pump out vigorous tropical waves left and right.

Read comment 334. We'll probably be past that if we cough up a Cat 5.
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Good Night StormW.
Starting to get deep here.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


1888 11/17 Not Named (cat 2)
1925 11/29 Not Named (cat 2)


Hurricanes Lenny and Paloma were both CAT 4s
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.