Earl's rain bands move over New England; Gaston regenerating?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:09 PM GMT on September 03, 2010

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Hurricane Earl has remained roughly constant in intensity over the past six hours, as it heads north-northeast at 20 mph towards New England. The latest center fix from the Hurricane Hunters, at 1:14pm EDT, found the pressure had remained constant since late morning, at 961 mb. Long range radar out of Long Island shows that Earl's outermost spiral bands have already brought as much as one inch of rain to portions of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with lesser amounts on Long Island and in Connecticut.


Figure 1. Afternoon radar image from the Long Island, New York radar.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track. Earl is still expected to pass 20 - 50 miles southeast of Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, at about 2am Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast of wind shear continues to show that shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Saturday. Ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C early Saturday morning, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will probably be a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England, and have 65 mph winds on Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada. I have no substantive changes to make to the impacts likely for New England and Canada that I discussed in this morning's post.


Figure 2. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 3:30pm EDT Friday, September 3, 2010. Note the 15 mph (13 kt) asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 20 mph to the north-northeast at the time. The highest contour had top winds of 65 kt (75 mph) surrounding the "+" on the east side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds on the left (northwest) side were just 52 knots (60 mph.) The asymmetry was greater--about 20 mph--at 6:30 am EDT this morning. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona has changed little this afternoon. Satellite loops continue to show that Fiona is a naked swirl of low clouds with just one diminishing spot of heavy thunderstorms on the southwest side of the circulation. High wind shear from Earl should continue to affect Fiona over the next two days, and will probably destroy the storm on Saturday.


Figure 3. Afternoon satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gaston may be regenerating
Recent satellite imagery continues to show that Gaston's remains are re-organizing. Gaston has a broad surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air lies to the west and north of Gaston's remains, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where the atmosphere is relatively moist, so this shear will be less harmful than usual for development. NHC is giving Gaston a 50% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Sunday; I put these odds higher, at 60%. The GFS, UKMET, and GFDL models develop Gaston and predict it will move though the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. The NOGAPS and HWRF models also develop Gaston, but predict a slower motion, bringing the storm near the northern Lesser Antilles 6 - 7 days from now. Given the steady increase in organization of Gaston's remains today and high degree of model support for regeneration, I expect Gaston will be a tropical storm again, early next week.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verdes Islands, is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear has dropped to 20 - 25 knots, and will decrease to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Saturday through Monday. The system will move over the Cape Verdes Islands over the weekend, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain squalls. NHC is giving the wave a 30% chance of developing by Sunday afternoon. Several models develop 99L into a tropical depression, but head it northwest into a region of very high wind shear that destroys the system by Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Saturday by 1pm.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC (OBXNCWEATHER)
Gas station in Nags Head, NC that fell victim to Hurricane Earl's winds.
Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC
Earl's waves (StormJunkie)
Earl's waves

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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I was one of those cloud laughers LOL.

I wasn't looking at the cloud though as evidence for it coming back. I was looking at the surrounding environment as reasons it would come back, low shear and warm waters. So I too am not surprised its coming back.


Gaston heard you chuckling LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15865
Good Evening, StormW
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Earl has not even made landfall yet and we're already talking about some puff of clouds (ex-Gaston) in the middle of nowhere. Crazy.
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164 I agree it was the traffic. I am from Iowa and know how to drive in snow and ice but because I was stuck in traffic, I could only go as fast as the car in front of me. Frustrating!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
AVN satellite loops reveal that intense cloud tops (as cold as -80C) have begun to fire atop ex-Gaston's circulation. Based on this along with the progress made at the surface, I would assume that the NHC will raise the chances another 10% to a 60% chance of ex-Gaston re-forming into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. I do believe that if the convection can sustain itself tonight that the NHC will re-classify ex-Gaston to a tropical depression tomorrow.



We'll see if you're right at 8 PM EDT (if the NHC will upgrade it to 60% chance).
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The convective organization of Fiona is very, very poor. To me, it doesn't appear to be a tropical cyclone anymore and should be discontinued.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Y para las personas hispanohablantes por aca... tengo una cancion dedicada a Gaston..
Link
Pero, lamentablemente parece que han respondido a su llamada de emergencia

tambien.. gaston esta otra vez...

Link
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186. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP112010
23:00 PM UTC September 3 2010
=======================================

At 23:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression Eleven (1005 hPa) located at 15.1N 94.3W has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 2 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
6 HRS: 15.5N 94.6W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 16.8N 95.6W - 30 knots (Overland Tropical Depression)

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===================================
A Tropical Storm Warning is current for coast of southern Mexico from Boca de Pijijiapan westward to Puerto Angel
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Quoting kmanislander:


This time yesterday there were a few on here chuckling because I said I had seen a hurricane form from a single cloud like the one that Gaston had then. Funny the difference a day can make. LOL


I was one of those cloud laughers LOL.

I wasn't looking at the cloud though as evidence for it coming back. I was looking at the surrounding environment as reasons it would come back, low shear and warm waters. So I too am not surprised its coming back.
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Hi Storm...

Rob shouting out from waaaaaaay over here in Orlando...
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Quoting StormW:


Right now, the current steering layers forecast to 144 hours takes him into the Caribbean...12Z run...valid 00Z 04 SEP.


ok... thanks storm
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AVN satellite loops reveal that intense cloud tops (as cold as -80C) have begun to fire atop ex-Gaston's circulation. Based on this along with the progress made at the surface, I would assume that the NHC will raise the chances another 10% to a 60% chance of ex-Gaston re-forming into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. I do believe that if the convection can sustain itself tonight that the NHC will re-classify ex-Gaston to a tropical depression tomorrow.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Gamma that list is somewhat incorrect.

If Andrew hit Miami today and 5 miles north it would be way higher upwards of 100,000,000,000


For tbose of you that were not in SFL for Wilma, what was uniquely devastating about the storm was that due to it coming from the SW to NE the front right quadrant was actually on the southern eyeball instead of the northern eyewall. And more important, the eye wall hit the all of the populated areas of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach county. If I am not mistaken, it caused and I beleive remains, the largest hurricane induced blackout in history. At one point almost 6 million residents were without power. Broward County in particular was the hardest hit of all with the last and strongest band on the back side of the eye wall. I know I was without power for 23 days. That was awful
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Oooo, that can't be good.


What then after WNW, Bahamas? Florida? Must everything go to Florida?!
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting StormW:


That he is. Good to see you tonight.


This time yesterday there were a few on here chuckling because I said I had seen a hurricane form from a single cloud like the one that Gaston had then. Funny the difference a day can make. LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15865
Quoting StormW:


That he is.



Do you look for Gaston to make it through the Carribean or get there and then go north (east coast)?
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Quoting kimoskee:
What's with all the Gaston chat? When I was last here I thought he was on his way to his funeral?
Looks like he is going to pull a Lazarus and be resurrected.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8424
Quoting kimoskee:
What's with all the Gaston chat? When I was last here I thought he was on his way to his funeral?


Didn't anyone tell you? Gaston is a cat, its got eight lives left XD
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Quoting kimoskee:
What's with all the Gaston chat? When I was last here I thought he was on his way to his funeral?


Misdiagnosis. He wasn't dead, just comatose.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15865
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!


Hi Storm

We are discussing Gaston, Part 2.

Definitely on the comeback trail this evening.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15865
Quoting NCWatch:
133 I remember that!!! I live in Nashville NC and it took me 1 hour to drive 13 miles home from work. The roads had turned to pure ice and no one even with 4 wheel drive could move.


I don't know how folks got stuck. I was an undergrad at NC State, and I got the heck out of there before people started crowding up the roads. I was driving on those icy roads with just front-wheel drive, all you gotta do is not drive fast (I was really careful and made it home in 30 minutes before the roads jammed up). I remember one dufus who decided to floor it in the parking lot and almost rammed into me with his SUV.

My theory on what happened is they released all schools and businesses at the same time because the snow surprised everyone, creating one heck of a traffic jam. Even school buses were on the roads for hours well into the evening. What a mess it was.
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What's with all the Gaston chat? When I was last here I thought he was on his way to his funeral?
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Now that Earl has passed, everyone around here (DE) is saying it was much ado about nothing. Do you guys think that leads to complacency should another storm approach? I know we are well overdue for a storm...at least that's what they say...
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Nice choo-choo train effect on Earl all day today.
NE side. Highspeed Vis Sat loops
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Gaston still getting scooped...

GFS still adamant with the 9/14 trof - deep digger!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


but some models continue to take the system northward


I would be surprised if the set up next week would allow for recurvature that early
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15865
for the last time, and I mean it this time.

leaving for the night.

enjoy your evening!
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Quoting seflagamma:


very true...that is why Andrew is listed 2nd not 1st.


Gamma,
I agree with you completely. I probably should have responded to Sammy's post instead of yours.
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156. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
22:00 PM UTC September 3 2010
==================================

Geostationary and microwave satellite imagery indicate that the area of low pressure over the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become better organized and a tropical depression may be forming. If current trend continues.. advisories will be initiated later this afternoon or evening. Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings will likely be required for portions of the southern coast of Mexico.

Regardless of development... heavy rains is likely over portion of southeastern Mexico and Guatemala during the next couple of days which may cause Flash Floods and mudslides.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===================================
There is a HIGH chance of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours
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Quoting StormW:
Good evening!


Good evening Storm...
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Quoting kmanislander:


The long range steering at 144 hrs shows a small weakness between the flow near PR which is to the West and the flow over Eastern Cuba which is forecasted to be from the NE to SW. I think that is what the models believe will allow Gaston to lift to the N of Hispaniola, perhaps through the Mona passage, after passing PR and then resuming a track to the WNW.


but some models continue to take the system northward
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting JupiterFL:


You could do this with any storm, however that would simply be ridiculous. You can only equate to todays dollars but you can't say well if it had hit here or here or here.


very true...that is why Andrew is listed 2nd not 1st.
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151. xcool


forecast models All Over the Place cmc out sea /gfs in cab .
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Quoting kmanislander:


The long range steering at 144 hrs shows a small weakness between the flow near PR which is to the West and the flow over Eastern Cuba which is forecasted to be from the NE to SW. I think that is what the models believe will allow Gaston to lift to the N of Hispaniola, perhaps through the Mona passage, after passing PR and then resuming a track to the WNW.
Oooo, that can't be good.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Hurricanes101:


looking at the steering, I have to see what the models are seeing that turns this northward after the islands


Whaaat? They do? I think Gaston will end up in the Caribbean, at least the eastern Caribbean. How the heck are the models turning it northward at the islands?
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Any models showing Gaston recurving northward into a ridge weakness over the next few days? Is Gaston supposed to make a B-line toward the east coast from the Caribbean, or is it heading toward the Gulf of Mexico after the Caribbean?


See post 147
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15865
Quoting Hurricanes101:


looking at the steering, I have to see what the models are seeing that turns this northward after the islands


The long range steering at 144 hrs shows a small weakness between the flow near PR which is to the West and the flow over Eastern Cuba which is forecasted to be from the NE to SW. I think that is what the models believe will allow Gaston to lift to the N of Hispaniola, perhaps through the Mona passage, after passing PR and then resuming a track to the WNW.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15865
133 I remember that!!! I live in Nashville NC and it took me 1 hour to drive 13 miles home from work. The roads had turned to pure ice and no one even with 4 wheel drive could move.
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Quoting CaribBoy:
Gaston is waking up


Hey Gaston, how was that nap? Why can't you stay asleep? Go back to bed!
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Very nice, just went and checked it out...That's one little boat...idiots...
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Any models showing Gaston recurving northward into a ridge weakness over the next few days? Is Gaston supposed to make a B-line toward the east coast from the Caribbean, or is it heading toward the Gulf of Mexico after the Caribbean?
To early to tell
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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