Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl's rain bands move over New England; Gaston regenerating?

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:09 PM GMT on September 03, 2010

Hurricane Earl has remained roughly constant in intensity over the past six hours, as it heads north-northeast at 20 mph towards New England. The latest center fix from the Hurricane Hunters, at 1:14pm EDT, found the pressure had remained constant since late morning, at 961 mb. Long range radar out of Long Island shows that Earl's outermost spiral bands have already brought as much as one inch of rain to portions of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with lesser amounts on Long Island and in Connecticut.

Figure 1. Afternoon radar image from the Long Island, New York radar.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track. Earl is still expected to pass 20 - 50 miles southeast of Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, at about 2am Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast of wind shear continues to show that shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Saturday. Ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C early Saturday morning, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will probably be a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England, and have 65 mph winds on Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada. I have no substantive changes to make to the impacts likely for New England and Canada that I discussed in this morning's post.

Figure 2. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 3:30pm EDT Friday, September 3, 2010. Note the 15 mph (13 kt) asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 20 mph to the north-northeast at the time. The highest contour had top winds of 65 kt (75 mph) surrounding the "+" on the east side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds on the left (northwest) side were just 52 knots (60 mph.) The asymmetry was greater--about 20 mph--at 6:30 am EDT this morning. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona has changed little this afternoon. Satellite loops continue to show that Fiona is a naked swirl of low clouds with just one diminishing spot of heavy thunderstorms on the southwest side of the circulation. High wind shear from Earl should continue to affect Fiona over the next two days, and will probably destroy the storm on Saturday.

Figure 3. Afternoon satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gaston may be regenerating
Recent satellite imagery continues to show that Gaston's remains are re-organizing. Gaston has a broad surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air lies to the west and north of Gaston's remains, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where the atmosphere is relatively moist, so this shear will be less harmful than usual for development. NHC is giving Gaston a 50% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Sunday; I put these odds higher, at 60%. The GFS, UKMET, and GFDL models develop Gaston and predict it will move though the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. The NOGAPS and HWRF models also develop Gaston, but predict a slower motion, bringing the storm near the northern Lesser Antilles 6 - 7 days from now. Given the steady increase in organization of Gaston's remains today and high degree of model support for regeneration, I expect Gaston will be a tropical storm again, early next week.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verdes Islands, is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear has dropped to 20 - 25 knots, and will decrease to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Saturday through Monday. The system will move over the Cape Verdes Islands over the weekend, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain squalls. NHC is giving the wave a 30% chance of developing by Sunday afternoon. Several models develop 99L into a tropical depression, but head it northwest into a region of very high wind shear that destroys the system by Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Saturday by 1pm.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC (OBXNCWEATHER)

Gas station in Nags Head, NC that fell victim to Hurricane Earl's winds.

Earl's waves (StormJunkie)

Categories: Hurricane

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1251. eye 3:05 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
For the CONUS (most of us live) Earl was a rain event and not even as bad as the two winters storms we had last winter. This has been a very mild hurricane season in terms of serious threats to the CONUS. Cape Hatteras gets worse storms in the winter than Earl was..... Member Since: August 21, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 147

1252. washingtonian115 3:06 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Good to see that the NHC mentioned the area of disturbed weather in the BOC. If some of the global models do prove correct that area might become a tropical cyclone. The GFS has been consistent with this solution and so has the CMC, but the ECMWF has been back and forth. NOGAPS doesn't appear interested. And finally the NAM (for what it's worth) develops that area. I think it could be nothing more than a rain maker. Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10656

1253. will40 3:06 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting Grothar: OK, so what happened to the blog last night? I know it has probably been explained 142 times already, but I don't have time to look back. Just make it short. i havent seen an explanation Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 3439

1254. Grothar 3:06 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Patience. Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

1255. plywoodstatenative 3:07 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
whats the forecast on the item just now removing itself from the african coast, lots of moisture attached with it but not much in the way of organizational structure as with the previous waves. Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147

1257. wunderkidcayman 3:08 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
WOW LOOK BEHIND 99L maybe pre 90L Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5450

1258. Stormchaser2007 3:08 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Very interesting. Danielle may have created enough upwelling to actually begin to cause a focusing of upward motion in the tropical Atlantic. Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

1259. Grothar 3:09 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting will40: i havent seen an Exclamation Yo, will. Where you been? You don't know what happened either? Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

1261. PSLFLCaneVet 3:10 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting Grothar: OK, so what happened to the blog last night? I know it has probably been explained 142 times already, but I don't have time to look back. Just make it short. Not sure, it was stuck for a long time on page 6. No one seems to know why, but some comments made it through. They just took a long time to show. I ran out of patience waiting for it and hit the sack. It did eventually continue, as I read back to check. Good morning, all. Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

1262. 1fromnovasscotia 3:10 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
some large branches and some tress are beginning to fall in halifax and dartmouth nova scotia now were beginning to reach our peak here in the city. Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 36

1263. plywoodstatenative 3:11 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
yeah that was what they were saying, Igor, was the one over the African inland area. Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147

1265. MiamiHurricanes09 3:11 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting washingtonian115: I think it could be nothing more than a rain maker. It definitely won't become a hurricane, weak tropical storm is probably all it'll become, but an anticyclone is centered over the area and conditions are favorable so it does have a chance to spin up. It may try to pull a Gert (2005) or a Jose (2005), albeit a little weaker than both of those examples. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1266. hydrus 3:11 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting Grothar: Patience. Good morning Gro..A little break in the action until Gaston regenerates and the possibility of a Gulf system. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14306

1267. will40 3:12 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting Grothar: Yo, will. Where you been? You don't know what happened either? no all i got was an Email from admin saying they were working on it Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 3439

1268. stormwatcherCI 3:14 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting Grothar: That post was "outa sight", you must be a real hip cat! Really neat. That blog romps! I also hear my granchildren saying something is stink meaning good. LOL And I thought my generation was weird. At least we could figure out what was meant. When I heard my grandson say something was stink and I said it wasn't he laughed at me and said that means it's good. Go figure. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

1270. washingtonian115 3:15 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Bingo! Great post. 99L still worth watching though, probably won't develop, but the possibility is there. Mother nature knows,as well as we do what shes doing.The system in the BOC should become Hermain,and the vigorous wave over africa should become Igor,and be a threat.That's just how I see.You can call me menso(stupid in spanish.) or loco(craz in spanish) all ou want. Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10656

1271. Grothar 3:15 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting hydrus: Good morning Gro..A little break in the action until Gaston regenerates and the possibility of a Gulf system. Hey, hy. Gaston really has a lot of dry air around it. If it can make it throught that, it could regenerate within the next 48 hours if it is able to draw in that moisture field from the South. Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

1272. will40 3:16 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
and Grothar where i been is in a shelter on the mainland. I got back on the Island yesterday morn. Earl was just looking like too close of a call thursday morn so i left. Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 3439

1274. antiguaboy396 3:17 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting weatherwatcher12: Even if he recurved and didn't git Nova Scotia he wouldn't be considered a fish storm because he hit the lesser antillies. Member Since: August 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 24

1275. Grothar 3:17 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting will40: no all i got was an Email from admin saying they were working on it Thanks will. At least they answer you. Never saw it down that long. Where you here when it crashed because of too many comments a few years back? Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

1276. hydrus 3:18 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting Grothar: Hey, hy. Gaston really has a lot of dry air around it. If it can make it throught that, it could regenerate within the next 48 hours if it is able to draw in that moisture field from the South. It is a guess, but once Ex-Gaston moves into the Caribbean, the system will thrive on the warm pools of water and the moist environment. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14306

1277. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 3:18 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting hydrus: I would imagine folks to the east of Earl are getting hurricane force winds. They get there share of rough weather up there even when they are not getting whacked with hurricanes. just a rainy windy day and in a couple of months a typical blizzard Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40615

1279. washingtonian115 3:19 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting wunderkidcayman: WOW LOOK BEHIND 99L maybe pre 90L Quoting wunderkidcayman: WOW LOOK BEHIND 99L maybe pre 90L Igor!.Sorry for quoting ou two times.Meant to quote Gorther. Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10656

1280. will40 3:19 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting Grothar: Thanks will. At least they answer you. Never saw it down that long. Where you here when it crashed because of too many comments a few years back? Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 3439

1281. Bielle 3:19 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Does anyone here have a link to what the tides in the Bay of Fundy are/were like around the time this morning when Earl made landfall in Nova Scotia? Thanks. Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600

1282. Grothar 3:19 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting will40: and Grothar where i been is in a shelter on the mainland. I got back on the Island yesterday morn. Earl was just looking like too close of a call thursday morn so i left. Smart move. More people should follow your example. What island where you on? I forgot where you lived. At my age, I sometimes forget where I live. Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

1283. PensacolaDoug 3:20 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
I'm thinking on the "re-analysis" earl will have been a 'cane going into Canada. Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4828

1284. plywoodstatenative 3:20 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
anyone seen kman, liked his partake on Earl, would like his take on the rest of the systems Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147

1285. antiguaboy396 3:20 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Link Member Since: August 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 24

1286. antiguaboy396 3:21 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
The Aftermath of Hurricane Earl on the island of Antigua Member Since: August 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 24

1287. MiamiHurricanes09 3:21 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting btwntx08: since the boc system is 20% we could have a invest 90L later today perhaps Likely. Steering in the area is very weak so it might just stay stationary with wobbles towards the WNW and nothing more, so we know what model plots are going to say. More interestingly, I'm intrigued to see what type of intensity the models think this will get to. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1288. will40 3:21 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting Grothar: Smart move. More people should follow your example. What island where you on? I forgot where you lived. At my age, I sometimes forget where I live. Emerald Isle NC about 20 miles south of MoreHead City NC Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 3439

1289. SoCalLGDhome 3:22 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting 1fromnovasscotia: some large branches and some tress are beginning to fall in halifax and dartmouth nova scotia now were beginning to reach our peak here in the city. We're thinking of you. Stay safe!

1290. will40 3:23 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Speaking of age i was here when Hazel came thorough so i understand age lol Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 3439

1291. kmanislander 3:23 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting plywoodstatenative: anyone seen kman, liked his partake on Earl, would like his take on the rest of the systems You rang ?? Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

1292. washingtonian115 3:24 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting hydrus: It is a guess, but once Ex-Gaston moves into the Caribbean, the system will thrive on the warm pools of water and the moist environment. And now is when the carribean decides to get moist.(rolls eyes). Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10656

1293. Grothar 3:24 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting will40: Emerald Isle NC about 20 miles south of MoreHead City NC Wow, that is really a beautiful area. Lucky Did they much beach erosion?(Ever look for Blackbeard's treasure?) That island has some history. Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

1294. Hurricanes101 3:25 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Likely. Steering in the area is very weak so it might just stay stationary with wobbles towards the WNW and nothing more, so we know what model plots are going to say. More interestingly, I'm intrigued to see what type of intensity the models think this will get to. BOC waters are very warm and have not been tapped for 2 months with weak steering, I see no reason why this couldn't be something decent Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

1295. LongIslandXpress38 3:25 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
With that ULL in the eastern Carribean, Gaston will have a tough time cranking up.. Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 166

1296. will40 3:26 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting Grothar: Wow, that is really a beautiful area. Lucky Did they much beach erosion?(Ever look for Blackbeard's treasure?) That island has some history. lost a lil sand but it faired pretty good Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 3439

1297. squallcat 3:26 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Hi from Annapolis Valley. Apple trees still intact as Earl pushed east with the force of the magnificent system from the west. Still windy but bands of sunshine that could have been the eye. We had gusts to 95 but we were on the west side - not the forcasted rain. Halifax is getting hammered. Storm seemed to tighten up when accelerating but the hoophouse roped down did not go sailing. Did Earl really have an eye going over Southern NS? Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 4

1298. MiamiHurricanes09 3:26 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting kmanislander: You rang ?? Hey Kman! Can I ask you some questions? 1\| You're input on ex-Gaston. 2\| You're input on the area of disturbed weather in the BOC.' Sorry that they're a couple, just wondering on your input. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1299. hydrus 3:27 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: just a rainy windy day and in a couple of months a typical blizzard I saw footage of Hurricane Jose,s damage to that region. I was surprised to see such heavy wind damage from a bona fide tropical cyclone so far north. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14306

1300. Grothar 3:27 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting washingtonian115: Igor!.Sorry for quoting ou two times.Meant to quote Gorther. It is Grothar, pronounced Gro-tar. The "h" is silent, unlike Mrs. Grothar. Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

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