Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Groth here is a pier cam from the island

Link

Kman, whats your partake on the systems out there and the idea that Gaston is reforming? Something has to get into the Caribbean, and in your opinion what will that be?

Quoting Hurricanes101:


BOC waters are very warm and have not been tapped for 2 months

with weak steering, I see no reason why this couldn't be something decent

A 60 mph tropical storm.....

Quoting Hurricanes101:


BOC waters are very warm and have not been tapped for 2 months

with weak steering, I see no reason why this couldn't be something decent

Don't forget land.

Quoting Hurricanes101:


BOC waters are very warm and have not been tapped for 2 months

with weak steering, I see no reason why this couldn't be something decent

Check this out:

Anticyclone centered over the area of disturbed weather. Upper level winds are just 5-10 knots.



The environment it is in also isn't too dry.

850mb Vort from TD 11E is transferring into the BOC.

unless LongIslandXpress38 the ULL move out quick enough

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKING INTO THE FAR N GULF WATERS
THIS MORNING WILL STALL ALONG 29N LATE TONIGHT THEN GRADUALLY
DRIFT N AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY W-SW TO NEAR 26N91W THEN BECOMING A BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDING SW INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W WILL
DRIFT N AND NW THROUGH MON NIGHT AND GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER PERSISTING NEAR TROUGH. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED.

...............................................

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WILL MAINTAIN A
MODEST PRES GRADIENT AND GENERALLY MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MON. THE REMNANT LOW PRES OF GASTON WAS LOCATED E
OF THE AREA NEAR 16.5N46W THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE W...REACHING NEAR 16.5N55W MON MORNING...NEAR 16.5N60W
TUE MORNING...AND NEAR 17N64W WED MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE
UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE ANYTIME DURING THIS PERIOD.

Quoting Grothar:


It is Grothar, pronounced Gro-tar. The "h" is silent, unlike Mrs. Grothar.

Sorry.Thanks for giving me the right pronouceation.It looks like MH09's prediction of will come true.....

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hey Kman! Let me ask you some questions.

1| You're input on ex-Gaston.
2| You're input on the area of disturbed weather in the BOC.'

Sorry that they're a couple.

No problem. What are Saturday's for eh ??. Let's take them one at a time.

1. Gaston

This system has been struggling with dry air and shear. However, Gaston is leaving an area of 25 to 30 knots of shear and will enter an area of lower shear very soon. On that basis, and given the very vigorous circulation still evident I expect convection to redevelop later today or tonight. Here is the shear tendency map and you can see that Gaston is now right on the very extreme edge of the high shear boundary. The 850 vort is still very strong so IMO Gaston is not finished.




2. The BOC

There is no vorticity at the 850 mb level and the convergence and divergence are not stacked on top of each other. The convergence is off to the WNW near the coast and the divergence is right down near the Southern coast. There are no signs of anything imminent with this feature. Development, IMO, will be slow to occur here if at all and would likely be hampered by proximity to land. Just an area to be watched for now.

Good morning everyone! More rain might be on the way for NE Mexico en Deep South Texas.

Quoting btwntx08:

it has weak steering currents so that gives it time to develop pretty good out of it

Ok, just pointing out the main factor that could limit development.

May someone post a satalite pick of africa please.Thank you.

Quoting Grothar:


That post was "outa sight", you must be a real hip cat! Really neat. That blog romps!

No, you are one hep cat Grothar! Well I gotta 23 skiddo and listen to my 45's of Ish Kabibble.

Interior N.C. could use some rain. We have had a pretty dry summer here - I've only mowed my yard 3 times this year, and have had to water some of my trees. This blocking high has been over us for two weeks now.

Gaston could be a TS or weak CAT1 and land here, fine with me.

SEVERAL LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS WOULD COME FROM THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E OR A BRAND NEW
DEVELOPMENT.

Quoting Grothar:


It is Grothar, pronounced Gro-tar. The "h" is silent, unlike Mrs. Grothar.

My old friend grothar...I take your wife doesn't spend any time in here?

Quoting will40:
and Grothar where i been is in a shelter on the mainland. I got back on the Island yesterday morn. Earl was just looking like too close of a call thursday morn so i left.

So how were things when you got back. I still would have done what you did. Folks keep saying it was no worse than a good norwestener. What they forget is that the potentule for a lot more than a good winter storm was there and that there are a lot more people to get in your way getting out in the tourist season so you must commit earlier if you want to leave. I still think you made the wiser choice.

Quoting washingtonian115:
May someone post a satalite pick of africa please.Thank you.

Link

sat link

Thanks Kman!

Quoting KanKunKid:


So how to you pronounce anticyclone?

Is it like antifreeze the British style kill the long I and put the emphasis on the second syllable: an TISS uh Clone
or like a redneck pronounces cement with the first vowel long and with the emphasis SEE ment.
Or ant eye SIGH clone.

Just curious. I'm not making an advertisement or anything.

LMAO!!! You pronounce it: an-tie-CI-clone.

Shoot it more windy now than it ever was last night. At least it doesn't feel like you are in the middle of a bowl of soup. The sun is still very warm though. i am so ready for Autumn.

Two questions to anyone who knows:

Why are storms staying so weak over the east atlantic?

Why no carribean/GOM/east coast homebrew storms? (Exception being Alex, that kind of was... but we seem to have more than that usually)

Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Kman, whats your partake on the systems out there and the idea that Gaston is reforming? Something has to get into the Caribbean, and in your opinion what will that be?

See my post 1316. Gaston is rapidly approaching 50 W. Typically, weak disorganized systems like this have a tendency to blow up between 55 and 63 W. The best I think Gaston can do between where he is now and 60 W would be a TD or 40 mph TS. The real issue is whether he can regain TD status before 63W. If he does and stays low then all bets would be off for intensity if he tracks West through the Caribbean.

Long term I think that Gaston will either not amount to much at all or become another major.

Quoting centex:
Don't forget land.

systems in that area of developed and gotten fairly strong despite proximity to land

Quoting Floodman:
Quoting Grothar:


It is Grothar, pronounced Gro-tar. The "h" is silent, unlike Mrs. Grothar.

My old friend grothar...I take your wife doesn't spend any time in here?

Thinks I am booring wasting my time on the blog. Her reasoning is, "Look outside; if it is raining carry an unbrella" Pure logic.

Quoting Floodman:
Quoting Grothar:


It is Grothar, pronounced Gro-tar. The "h" is silent, unlike Mrs. Grothar.

My old friend grothar...I take your wife doesn't spend any time in here?

Flood, did you read my post for you this morning?

Quoting KanKunKid:


You mean ant ee SIGH clone?

My bad. It's an-tee-SIGH-clone.

Quoting Hurricanes101:


systems in that area of developed and gotten fairly strong despite proximity to land

Yes, Opal came from there.

Quoting winter123:
Two questions to anyone who knows:

Why are storms staying so weak over the east atlantic?

Why no carribean/GOM/east coast homebrew storms? (Exception being Alex, that kind of was... but we seem to have more than that usually)

For the first the reason wh storms are probally staying weak over the east atlantic because of dry air.second question is once again due to dry sinking air.

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


No, you are one hep cat Grothar! Well I gotta 23 skiddo and listen to my 45's of Ish Kabibble.

You're the bee's knees, Geoff. Still have one old Kay Kyser album on a 78. It is scratched, but still a keeper. What do you think of ex-Gaston

Quoting Orcasystems:


The geography of the Hebert Boxes is the key to their use as predictors. The boxes are located such that hurricanes have plenty of space to intensify after passing through them, and the prevailing winds tend to push them towards Florida. Conversely, if they pass outside the box they are either too close to land to intensify much, or are far enough away from land that they are more subject to the influences of steering winds and other atmospheric conditions. These tend to either push the hurricane more westward across the Caribbean Sea towards the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, or into the Gulf of Mexico where they threaten Mexico and the Gulf Coast states, or eastwards causing them to curve outwards over the Atlantic and miss landfall altogether.[1]

While these boxes provide an indication that a hurricane may threaten South Florida, a hurricane does not have to pass through one to strike there, as were the case with the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 and Hurricane Andrew, though the latter did skirt the edges of the eastern box. Additionally, a hurricane which does pass through a Hebert Box can very easily miss Florida, or indeed any landfall entirely.[3] Hebert himself acknowledged that the boxes are not a guarantee of hurricane landfall either way, but cautions that if a hurricane passes through one, "really, really pay attention. We worry plenty in August and September when one goes through that box, and we have a certain comfort level when one misses the box."[1]

Are we allowed to quote Wikipedia without reference? Hmmmmm ...

Quoting extreme236:
SEVERAL LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS WOULD COME FROM THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E OR A BRAND NEW
DEVELOPMENT.

As mentioned by StormW a chunk of energy from 11 and a trough of low pressure is causing the cloudiness.In the Bay of Campeche.

Station 44150 - La Have Bank
Owned and maintained by Environment Canada
3-meter discus buoy
42.500 N 64.020 W (42°30'0" N 64°1'12" W)

Conditions at 44150 as of
(12:00 pm ADT)
1500 GMT on 09/04/2010:

Wind Direction (WDIR): SW ( 230 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 42.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 54.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 41.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 13 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.28 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.20 in ( Rising
Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 69.4 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 63.9 °F

That's a big wave!

Quoting winter123:

This will be cat 5 just west of new orleans then continue NE and curve back to hit just west of NYC.

Not gonna happen....

Here's a cool image of Earl when it was a category 2 hurricane. Notice the trough approaching him.

Quoting breald:
Shoot it more windy now than it ever was last night. At least it doesn't feel like you are in the middle of a bowl of soup. The sun is still very warm though. i am so ready for Autumn.

cool here breezy as well