Earl's rain bands move over New England; Gaston regenerating?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:09 PM GMT on September 03, 2010

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Hurricane Earl has remained roughly constant in intensity over the past six hours, as it heads north-northeast at 20 mph towards New England. The latest center fix from the Hurricane Hunters, at 1:14pm EDT, found the pressure had remained constant since late morning, at 961 mb. Long range radar out of Long Island shows that Earl's outermost spiral bands have already brought as much as one inch of rain to portions of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with lesser amounts on Long Island and in Connecticut.


Figure 1. Afternoon radar image from the Long Island, New York radar.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track. Earl is still expected to pass 20 - 50 miles southeast of Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, at about 2am Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast of wind shear continues to show that shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Saturday. Ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C early Saturday morning, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will probably be a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England, and have 65 mph winds on Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada. I have no substantive changes to make to the impacts likely for New England and Canada that I discussed in this morning's post.


Figure 2. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 3:30pm EDT Friday, September 3, 2010. Note the 15 mph (13 kt) asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 20 mph to the north-northeast at the time. The highest contour had top winds of 65 kt (75 mph) surrounding the "+" on the east side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds on the left (northwest) side were just 52 knots (60 mph.) The asymmetry was greater--about 20 mph--at 6:30 am EDT this morning. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona has changed little this afternoon. Satellite loops continue to show that Fiona is a naked swirl of low clouds with just one diminishing spot of heavy thunderstorms on the southwest side of the circulation. High wind shear from Earl should continue to affect Fiona over the next two days, and will probably destroy the storm on Saturday.


Figure 3. Afternoon satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gaston may be regenerating
Recent satellite imagery continues to show that Gaston's remains are re-organizing. Gaston has a broad surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air lies to the west and north of Gaston's remains, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where the atmosphere is relatively moist, so this shear will be less harmful than usual for development. NHC is giving Gaston a 50% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Sunday; I put these odds higher, at 60%. The GFS, UKMET, and GFDL models develop Gaston and predict it will move though the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. The NOGAPS and HWRF models also develop Gaston, but predict a slower motion, bringing the storm near the northern Lesser Antilles 6 - 7 days from now. Given the steady increase in organization of Gaston's remains today and high degree of model support for regeneration, I expect Gaston will be a tropical storm again, early next week.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verdes Islands, is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear has dropped to 20 - 25 knots, and will decrease to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Saturday through Monday. The system will move over the Cape Verdes Islands over the weekend, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain squalls. NHC is giving the wave a 30% chance of developing by Sunday afternoon. Several models develop 99L into a tropical depression, but head it northwest into a region of very high wind shear that destroys the system by Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Saturday by 1pm.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC (OBXNCWEATHER)
Gas station in Nags Head, NC that fell victim to Hurricane Earl's winds.
Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC
Earl's waves (StormJunkie)
Earl's waves

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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Any models showing Gaston recurving northward into a ridge weakness over the next few days? Is Gaston supposed to make a B-line toward the east coast from the Caribbean, or is it heading toward the Gulf of Mexico after the Caribbean?
To early to tell
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142. xcool
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Kman, thanks for the Gaston information and data.. since it is not available here!

We all will be watching this one for sure.
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Quoting kmanislander:
Gaston is showing increased convection this evening and about to head off to the West. An interesting few days ahead I think. Vorticity at the 850 mb height is looking nice and symmetrical as well with a solid signature.



Any models showing Gaston recurving northward into a ridge weakness over the next few days? Is Gaston supposed to make a B-line toward the east coast from the Caribbean, or is it heading toward the Gulf of Mexico after the Caribbean?
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Quoting kmanislander:
Gaston is showing increased convection this evening and about to head off to the West. An interesting few days ahead I think. Vorticity at the 850 mb height is looking nice and symmetrical as well with a solid signature.



looking at the steering, I have to see what the models are seeing that turns this northward after the islands
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Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
137. xcool


lol gfs
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Quoting seflagamma:


I got that list from the list here on WU...

and I agree, if Andrew had come in at Broward Dade County line as original forcast and not taken that south west wobble.. it would have been an even worse case than we could have imagined... we were "overall" so luck it did come ashore in South Dade...
(I know many who had homes destroyed by Andrew and they were not lucky but you know what I am talking about)

If Andrew had destroyed all of Miami and Ft Lauderdale that would have by far been the most costly disaster we have ever seen and the deaths would have been unimaginable ...because people did not really know how to prepare back then and our homes were not all up to code like they are today.

excellent point.


You could do this with any storm, however that would simply be ridiculous. You can only equate to todays dollars but you can't say well if it had hit here or here or here.
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Gaston is waking up
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15 N 42.5 W and organizing

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Quoting NCHurricane2009:



Check out my intensity forecast. So, far Earl has been following the lower end of that intensity forecast. Got it right so far because I said Earl would be 115 to 105 mph tops in the eye wall when it passed by Cape Hatteras, and it was 105. I am saying Earl will be between 70 to 80 mph tops at the center when it passes by Cape Cod, so far looking like its headed that way. So for Nova Scotia, 50 to 60 mph max winds is what I am thinking.

Glad to see that you are reassured about such winds. Where I live, we don't get nor'easter winds, 50 to 60 mph winds and 1" of snow is the end of the world here. I kid you not, from where I live, 1" of snow paralyzed our city LOL, let me see if I can find a news article about it.



Yeah, yeah, here's the article. You guys up north will laugh so hard at this (I live in Raleigh, NC). It was January 2005.

http://raleighskyline.com/content/2006/11/21/the-half-inch-of-snow-that-paralyzed-raleigh/
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Quoting xcool:
TexasHurricane i dnot know .i take break from here.


hmmmm, ok.
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131. xcool
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Wilma was moving into a cold front when it crossed S FL, so I am not surprised that it was colder right after Wilma passed. Charley 2004 did the same thing, does anyone remember if it was cooler right after Charley passed?

I was actually surprised to hear Floyd made it cooler in Florida. It wasn't quiet moving into a cold front yet when it was passing east of Florida.


Neither did "Earl" at the time it passed FL... since the front was well north and west over the Plains at the time, but it was in the upper 60s/low 70s the past couple mornings here... which is significantly cooler than it has been lately (lately in the upper 70s/low 80s at night)
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Gaston is showing increased convection this evening and about to head off to the West. An interesting few days ahead I think. Vorticity at the 850 mb height is looking nice and symmetrical as well with a solid signature.

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Quoting StormJunkie:


Evening OM, good to see you. Did y'all have fun yesterday? Recognize the pic above? Wish I had seen the boat breaking up. Apparently Sheriff Ray Nash was out there too at the time and saw it. Biggest surf I have seen out there in a long long time.


I recognized the picture as soon as I saw it, and wasn't surprised to see it was yours. We had a blast yesterday. I got a few pics of the boaters with my cell phone, so they aren't very good. I put them on facebook.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Gamma that list is somewhat incorrect.

If Andrew hit Miami today and 5 miles north it would be way higher upwards of 100,000,000,000


I got that list from the list here on WU...

and I agree, if Andrew had come in at Broward Dade County line as original forcast and not taken that south west wobble.. it would have been an even worse case than we could have imagined... we were "overall" so luck it did come ashore in South Dade...
(I know many who had homes destroyed by Andrew and they were not lucky but you know what I am talking about)

If Andrew had destroyed all of Miami and Ft Lauderdale that would have by far been the most costly disaster we have ever seen and the deaths would have been unimaginable ...because people did not really know how to prepare back then and our homes were not all up to code like they are today.

And those Cat 5 winds destroyed far inland also..

excellent point.
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126. xcool
TexasHurricane i dnot know .i take break from here.
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Quoting 1fromnovasscotia:
phew, thank u guys for all the help with Earl, it was a hairy couple of days that was for sure, in nova scotia we can deal with 100 km wind gusts or 60 mph,not 175 km wind gusts as it looked 2 days ago that would have devasted a large area of our province and i'm quite certain we would have needed help to restore the power from power crews in quebec and our friends in maine.i don't know if any of you have gone without power for 22 days but i can tell u it sucks especially the cold showers that was after it took 11 days to get out water back. i hope that you folks in cape cod stay safe and sorry to here about the bad damage in north carolina, but it could have been alot worse. thx dr.masters, stormw,patrap miamihurricanes,and anyone else that i may have missed,i may be able to get some pictures for you now that i know it will like a normal nor easter that we go through on a yearly basis here.lol time to refocus on the atlantic and the train of storms coming accross the atlantic


Check out my intensity forecast. So, far Earl has been following the lower end of that intensity forecast. Got it right so far because I said Earl would be 115 to 105 mph tops in the eye wall when it passed by Cape Hatteras, and it was 105. I am saying Earl will be between 70 to 80 mph tops at the center when it passes by Cape Cod, so far looking like its headed that way. So for Nova Scotia, 50 to 60 mph max winds is what I am thinking.

Glad to see that you are reassured about such winds. Where I live, we don't get nor'easter winds, 50 to 60 mph winds and 1" of snow is the end of the world here. I kid you not, from where I live, 1" of snow paralyzed our city LOL, let me see if I can find a news article about it.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Interesting, I wish I could have seen the radar you were seeing, can't say what you saw after all. I know more about the official records than anything else :)

Was it velocity doppler you were using, or did you see that Wilma's eye wall structure was always intact on the reflectivity. I don't know how to gauge wind speed on good ol' reflectivity radars, and haven't really practiced using velocity doppler.


Wilma actually produced the most destruction on the East Coast of Florida because of the cold front. At least that is what they suspect. I can tell you that the back half of the storm was substantially stronger based on the front and storm merging at that time. On the other hand the 60 degree temps after the storm were weird but very nice when you don't have power.
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Quoting xcool:


That is more south than earlier right?
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121. xcool
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Quoting OceanMoan:


Everyone is being civil today, according to the discussion from earlier.


Evening OM, good to see you. Did y'all have fun yesterday? Recognize the pic above? Wish I had seen the boat breaking up. Apparently Sheriff Ray Nash was out there too at the time and saw it. Biggest surf I have seen out there in a long long time.
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119. xcool
1. Katrina (LA/MS/AL/SE FL) 2005 3 $81,000,000,000
huh that $81,000,000,000 wrong .more like 168 0,000,000,000 b
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Quoting alfabob:
990mb with 44.7 mph gusts in lake superior, that's almost comparable to a weak TS right?



990 mb is nearing Hurricane strength.
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Quoting Hoff511:


I mean no disrespect and know what the official record says. However, going through it and watching the radar of her entire track across FL you can visibly see her strength. JMHO.
Wow, sorry about your house. Also, as soon as her eye started to get back over water, deepening commenced quite rapidly. So we probably experienced the effects of this perhaps more strongly than anywhere else that got the north side of the eye.
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Quoting btwntx08:
man so boring in here what happen ppl


Everyone is being civil today, according to the discussion from earlier.
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By the way, Earl is sparing New York City, doesn't seem like ther'll be tropical storm sustained winds there. Current conditions as Earl passes just to the east:

New York City, Central Park
Lat: 40.78 Lon: -73.97 Elev: 144
Last Update on Sep 3, 5:51 pm EDT

Overcast

82 °F
(28 °C)
Humidity: 69 %
Wind Speed: N 6 MPH
Barometer: 29.57" (1000.3 mb)
Dewpoint: 71 °F (22 °C)
Heat Index: 86 °F (30 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
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phew, thank u guys for all the help with Earl, it was a hairy couple of days that was for sure, in nova scotia we can deal with 100 km wind gusts or 60 mph,not 175 km wind gusts as it looked 2 days ago that would have devasted a large area of our province and i'm quite certain we would have needed help to restore the power from power crews in quebec and our friends in maine.i don't know if any of you have gone without power for 22 days but i can tell u it sucks especially the cold showers that was after it took 11 days to get out water back. i hope that you folks in cape cod stay safe and sorry to here about the bad damage in north carolina, but it could have been alot worse. thx dr.masters, stormw,patrap miamihurricanes,and anyone else that i may have missed,i may be able to get some pictures for you now that i know it will like a normal nor easter that we go through on a yearly basis here.lol time to refocus on the atlantic and the train of storms coming accross the atlantic
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Quoting Hoff511:


I mean no disrespect and know what the official record says. However, going through it and watching the radar of her entire track across FL you can visibly see her strength. JMHO.


Interesting, I wish I could have seen the radar you were seeing, can't say what you saw after all. I know more about the official records than anything else :)

Was it velocity doppler you were using, or did you see that Wilma's eye wall structure was always intact on the reflectivity. I don't know how to gauge wind speed on good ol' reflectivity radars, and haven't really practiced using velocity doppler.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


124 mph GUST. If it was 124 mph SUSTAINED, then it would have been a cat. 3. But here's the thing, a cat. 2 hurricane can have cat. 3, heck in some cases cat. 4, gusts. Its sustained winds, not wind gusts, that are used to rate the category of a hurricane.

So when it was on the E coast of Florida, it was a cat. 2 with cat. 3 gusts.


I mean no disrespect and know what the official record says. However, going through it and watching the radar of her entire track across FL you can visibly see her strengthen while exiting the east coast.. JMHO.
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“The old saying goes that economic forecasters were invented to make meteorologists look accurate.”
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Quoting Hoff511:


On top of my house. My Avatar was her parting gift. Definitely a Cat 3 on exit. BTW. I'm in PSL too.


124 mph GUST. If it was 124 mph SUSTAINED, then it would have been a cat. 3. But here's the thing, a cat. 2 hurricane can have cat. 3, heck in some cases cat. 4, gusts. Its sustained winds, not wind gusts, that are used to rate the category of a hurricane.

So when it was on the E coast of Florida, it was a cat. 2 with cat. 3 gusts.
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Quoting seflagamma:


Not if you were here on WU.. it caught many in South Florida by surprise... the general public because we did not put up watches and warning quick enough.. and the "east coast" was not suppose to get it bad.. it was suppose to have been West Coast of SFla that got slammed not us..

but I was here blogging on Dr Master's and lefty's blogs all night.. thank goodness my home was ready... I knew it was going to be worse than the news reporters were making out...



and they will eventually discovered the 3rd most distructive hurricane in the US was not a Cat2 while causing all this distruction..



see this: it is still listed here as Cat 3.


The 30 Costliest U.S. Hurricanes


Rank: Name: Year: Category: Damage (U.S.)*:
1. Katrina (LA/MS/AL/SE FL) 2005 3 $81,000,000,000
2. Andrew (SE FL/SE LA) 1992 5 $34,954,825,000
3. Wilma (FL) 2005 3 $20,600,000,000




Yeah, Wilma was at cat. 3 at landfall, weakened to a cat. 2 by the time it made it to the east coast, then came back to cat. 3 over the Warm Gulf stream, afterwards it became extratropical while weakening back to cat. 1

Wilma was so bad because it was a cat. 3 with a massive eye wall (so cat. 3 winds were in a larger area than normal). Katrina's storm surge when it was a cat. 3 at landfall was comparable to compact cat. 5 Camille. When hurricanes have larger than normal eyes at major hurricane status, they can produce a heck of a lot of storm surge at the coast, and they can produce a larger wind field over land well away from the center.
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
Like to know where the 124mph gust was recorded.


On top of my house. My Avatar was her parting gift. Definitely a Cat 3 on exit. BTW. I'm in PSL too.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Being up in North Carolina, can't say how bad Wilma was in Florida. I wonder, it seemed that storm caught many S Floridians by surprise, am I right?


Not if you were here on WU.. it caught many in South Florida by surprise... the general public because we did not put up watches and warning quick enough.. and the "east coast" was not suppose to get it bad.. it was suppose to have been West Coast of SFla that got slammed not us..

but I was here blogging on Dr Master's and lefty's blogs all night.. thank goodness my home was ready... I knew it was going to be worse than the news reporters were making out...



and they will eventually discovered the 3rd most distructive hurricane in the US was not a Cat2 while causing all this distruction..



see this: it is still listed here as Cat 3.


The 30 Costliest U.S. Hurricanes


Rank: Name: Year: Category: Damage (U.S.)*:
1. Katrina (LA/MS/AL/SE FL) 2005 3 $81,000,000,000
2. Andrew (SE FL/SE LA) 1992 5 $34,954,825,000
3. Wilma (FL) 2005 3 $20,600,000,000


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Quoting DaytonaNative:


That was the best part about Wilma...was nice to finally be able to leave the window's open at night.....too bad it didn't last! Floyd had the same effect (without as much damage) up in Daytona, I remember having to wear long sleeves to stay warm the next day as we traveled around helping ppl with "treee issues".


Wilma was moving into a cold front when it crossed S FL, so I am not surprised that it was colder right after Wilma passed. Charley 2004 did the same thing, does anyone remember if it was cooler right after Charley passed?

I was actually surprised to hear Floyd made it cooler in Florida. It wasn't quiet moving into a cold front yet when it was passing east of Florida.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Being up in North Carolina, can't say how bad Wilma was in Florida. I wonder, it seemed that storm caught many S Floridians by surprise, am I right?
Well Wilma upgraded to cat 3 right before land fall, our rule of thumb was to evac from our apt to my parents place if she'd be a cat 3, but she was forcasted as a 2, even as we went to bed. it was my parents calling that woke me up the next morning asking us to come up since she'd hit cat 3, but it was too late so we did what Jeb said bast...hunkerdowned and rode it out...was a good thing since apparently our windows leaked water like a fountain and we spent the majority of Wilma second act running from window to window with towels to keep our place dry. In the end it proved better for us to have stayed. Other than that, we were prepared...should be standard now for any Floridian, especially after the fun summer of 2004.
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Okay kids...out of here for a while

Play nice, will ya?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
#88, yes Wilma,

#86, us too.. We had some yard damage with Francis and Jeanne but not as much as the counties above us.. but Wilma "wipe the slate clean" as far as our landscaping went.


#85, that cold front was our saving grace since so many were without power for 7 - 14 days.or longer.... it was a crazy amount like a million people without power.. that cold front kept folks from going nuts on each other ... we even had to put on warmer clothes for a few days after Wilma went thru it was so cold.


Hope I did not forget anyone.

I will be done posting here soon. got some things to wrap up here at work...

one more long long day tomorrow..then my weekend begins.

enjoy your evening everyone..
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Technically, Wilma weakened to cat. 2 when it crossed S Florida:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL252005_Wilma.pdf

Read the last paragraph of section (a) of that PDF, its the official synoptic history of Wilma from the NHC.
No disrespect, but it took years for Andrew to be upgraded to Cat 5. When you're on the ground in it enough times, you do accumulate some perspective, even if "officially" it was not treated that way.
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Quoting ecflweatherfan:


I know up here by Cape Canaveral/Cocoa Beach area during Wilma... we had some localized wind gusts to 90 mph and I had over 13" of rain in a few hours. But it got very cold too as the storm went across south Florida... from the low 80s to the mid 50s in a few hours as well.


That was the best part about Wilma...was nice to finally be able to leave the window's open at night.....too bad it didn't last! Floyd had the same effect (without as much damage) up in Daytona, I remember having to wear long sleeves to stay warm the next day as we traveled around helping ppl with "treee issues".
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Quoting DaytonaNative:


Wilma was certainly a much stronger storm that originally thought, we were riding it out just north of the image in Vero Beach.....still stuck here....ugh!!!!!


Being up in North Carolina, can't say how bad Wilma was in Florida. I wonder, it seemed that storm caught many S Floridians by surprise, am I right?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.