Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl's rain bands move over New England; Gaston regenerating?

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:09 PM GMT on September 03, 2010

Hurricane Earl has remained roughly constant in intensity over the past six hours, as it heads north-northeast at 20 mph towards New England. The latest center fix from the Hurricane Hunters, at 1:14pm EDT, found the pressure had remained constant since late morning, at 961 mb. Long range radar out of Long Island shows that Earl's outermost spiral bands have already brought as much as one inch of rain to portions of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with lesser amounts on Long Island and in Connecticut.

Figure 1. Afternoon radar image from the Long Island, New York radar.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track. Earl is still expected to pass 20 - 50 miles southeast of Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, at about 2am Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast of wind shear continues to show that shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Saturday. Ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C early Saturday morning, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will probably be a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England, and have 65 mph winds on Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada. I have no substantive changes to make to the impacts likely for New England and Canada that I discussed in this morning's post.

Figure 2. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 3:30pm EDT Friday, September 3, 2010. Note the 15 mph (13 kt) asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 20 mph to the north-northeast at the time. The highest contour had top winds of 65 kt (75 mph) surrounding the "+" on the east side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds on the left (northwest) side were just 52 knots (60 mph.) The asymmetry was greater--about 20 mph--at 6:30 am EDT this morning. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona has changed little this afternoon. Satellite loops continue to show that Fiona is a naked swirl of low clouds with just one diminishing spot of heavy thunderstorms on the southwest side of the circulation. High wind shear from Earl should continue to affect Fiona over the next two days, and will probably destroy the storm on Saturday.

Figure 3. Afternoon satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gaston may be regenerating
Recent satellite imagery continues to show that Gaston's remains are re-organizing. Gaston has a broad surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air lies to the west and north of Gaston's remains, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where the atmosphere is relatively moist, so this shear will be less harmful than usual for development. NHC is giving Gaston a 50% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Sunday; I put these odds higher, at 60%. The GFS, UKMET, and GFDL models develop Gaston and predict it will move though the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. The NOGAPS and HWRF models also develop Gaston, but predict a slower motion, bringing the storm near the northern Lesser Antilles 6 - 7 days from now. Given the steady increase in organization of Gaston's remains today and high degree of model support for regeneration, I expect Gaston will be a tropical storm again, early next week.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verdes Islands, is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear has dropped to 20 - 25 knots, and will decrease to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Saturday through Monday. The system will move over the Cape Verdes Islands over the weekend, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain squalls. NHC is giving the wave a 30% chance of developing by Sunday afternoon. Several models develop 99L into a tropical depression, but head it northwest into a region of very high wind shear that destroys the system by Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Saturday by 1pm.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC (OBXNCWEATHER)

Gas station in Nags Head, NC that fell victim to Hurricane Earl's winds.

Earl's waves (StormJunkie)

Categories: Hurricane

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1351. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 3:51 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting breald: Shoot it more windy now than it ever was last night. At least it doesn't feel like you are in the middle of a bowl of soup. The sun is still very warm though. i am so ready for Autumn. cool here breezy as well Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40630

1354. extreme236 3:53 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
The models seem to try to develop the northern part of 99L, but the southern part would seem more likely at this point to develop. The low pressure is elongated through much of the system. Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

1355. LongIslandXpress38 3:53 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting sammywammybamy: Link? Link Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 166

1357. want2lrn 3:55 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
BTWNTX08, where are you from? Corpus here.... Member Since: July 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 258

1358. PrivateIdaho 3:55 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: Orca Systems can do whatever he wants here. Last guy that questioned him disappeared. They say Orca has Jimmy Hoffa's watch in his desk drawer..!! What ever you do, don't sneak into his pool after dark! Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

1359. MiamiHurricanes09 3:59 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1360. breald 4:00 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: cool here breezy as well Yep, they storm should be pushing thru Nova Scotia about this time. I hope everyone up there stays safe and checks in with us when they get a chance. Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5298

1361. extreme236 4:01 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
ECMWF forecasts 2 more CV storms to form in the 240 hour period (not including 99L). Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

1362. jurakantaino 4:01 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting IKE: SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO 1030 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKING INTO THE FAR N GULF WATERS THIS MORNING WILL STALL ALONG 29N LATE TONIGHT THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT N AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY W-SW TO NEAR 26N91W THEN BECOMING A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SW INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W WILL DRIFT N AND NW THROUGH MON NIGHT AND GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND... WITH ACTIVE WEATHER PERSISTING NEAR TROUGH. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF WATERS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. ............................................... SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W 1130 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010 .SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WILL MAINTAIN A MODEST PRES GRADIENT AND GENERALLY MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MON. THE REMNANT LOW PRES OF GASTON WAS LOCATED E OF THE AREA NEAR 16.5N46W THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE W...REACHING NEAR 16.5N55W MON MORNING...NEAR 16.5N60W TUE MORNING...AND NEAR 17N64W WED MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE ANYTIME DURING THIS PERIOD. UFFF!!17n64w, Hope it doesn't get to strong, Puerto Rico islands begin at 65W,18N ! Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730

1364. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 4:02 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: Are you in the GTA? I spent the first 4 months of this year in Mississauga. Lots of middle eastern folk and food. Expensive, but nice. Everybody is rich! LOL. I forgot to add. I liked everyplace there to eat except Swiss Chalet: yeah iam in the GTA in the eastside Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40630

1365. TropicalAnalystwx13 4:02 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
"After causing up to $150 million in damage in the Caribbean and generating waves as high as 49 feet, Earl was headed northwest toward the Carolinas late Wednesday, forcing evacuations along the Outer Banks barrier islands." Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25330

1366. kmanislander 4:02 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Here comes the start of Gaston Part 3 Just as he gets on the threshold of the area of low shear convection begins to refire on the Western side of the circulation. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

1367. CaribBoy 4:04 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
impressive spin with ex gaston CATL LOOP. All he needs is more convection. I expect this could happen later today Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2854

1369. MiamiHurricanes09 4:05 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting CaribBoy: impressive spin with ex gaston CATL LOOP. All he needs is more convection. I expect this could happen later today Indeed. He maintains a vigorous, closed, and well-defined circulation. All he needs in reality is a decent convective burst over the circulation to get re-classified as a tropical depression. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1370. MiamiHurricanes09 4:05 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Sorry about the double post. Please enjoy the 12z ATCF best track of ex-Gaston suggesting he has a pressure of 1008mb and winds of 35mph. Lol. AL, 09, 2010090412, , BEST, 0, 163N, 456W, 30, 1008, LO, Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1371. kmanislander 4:05 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: Do I hear strains of the theme from "Rocky" in the background? Funny, I thought I heard the same music LOL Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

1372. NOSinger 4:07 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
IMO.....ex Gaston is getting ready to FIRE up QUICK...he's getting out of the high shear and I think this could be alot of problems for the Carribean in the very near future!! Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 232

1373. germemiguel 4:07 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Gaston passed well north of the mid-atlantic station 41041 14.3N 46W at 12h50 GMT http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041&unit=M&tz=STN Member Since: June 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 74

1375. PrivateIdaho 4:08 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
So...how are the barametric pressures for the open open determined? How many weather buoys are there in the Atlantic? Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

1376. TOMSEFLA 4:08 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting extreme236: ECMWF forecasts 2 more CV storms to form in the 240 hour period (not including 99L). are both forecast to turn north of 20n before 60w? Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 234

1377. TropicalAnalystwx13 4:08 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25330

1378. kmanislander 4:09 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: Lets hope ol' Gassy, stays out of our neighborhood. Although, I seriously doubt we will escape unscathed this season. You got that right. CAT 5 if he gets into the central and NW Caribbean. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

1379. washingtonian115 4:10 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting extreme236: ECMWF forecasts 2 more CV storms to form in the 240 hour period (not including 99L). Which would be Igor,and Julia.That is if the system in the BOC doesn't develope first. Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10664

1380. caneswatch 4:10 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: Do I hear strains of the theme from "Rocky" in the background? Once the other side gets convection, expect the music to be louder lol Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

1382. SunnyDaysFla 4:11 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Just so that isn't the "Jaws" theme in the background. Member Since: September 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 427

1383. PrivateIdaho 4:11 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
ocean> Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

1384. winter123 4:11 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
What do you know, lake effect rain up by Watertown. I commented yesterday how it reminded me of a frontal system you'd see in november and I guess I was right. Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1700

1385. TropicalAnalystwx13 4:12 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
This is ridiculous, we're at the top of the scale! Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25330

1386. Levi32 4:12 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
The Bay of Campeche seems mostly unlikely to see any development over the next 3 days. The thunderstorms are being generated by TD 11E, which has moved inland over the middle of Mexico from the eastern Pacific. Its circulation can be seen clearly on visible. The flow would support a northwest movement which would keep the depression mostly over Mexico, and although the center may get pretty close to the coast or even skirt the water, I doubt it will be able to develop. However, what should be watched for is a dissipation of the main center and a reformation to the north over the Bay of Campeche, which is certainly possible, in which case it would be a different story as upper winds are quite favorable. But for now, if TD 11E's center remains intact, I don't think it's too big of a problem. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

1387. washingtonian115 4:12 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting kmanislander: You got that right. CAT 5 if he gets into the central and NW Caribbean. aAnd that's wh you just can't write off sneak little systems like Gaston so easily. Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10664

1388. TropicalAnalystwx13 4:13 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
I posted a GOES-15 image. Its its slowing anyone's computer, tell me, and I'll take it down. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25330

1389. kmanislander 4:13 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting caneswatch: Once the other side gets convection, expect the music to be louder lol Moisture starting to fill in on the SE side as well which was bare this morning. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

1390. Bielle 4:14 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting will40: Speaking of age i was here when Hazel came thorough so i understand age lol I sat on the stairs between the ground and second floors of our house on Wards Island in the Toronto Islands chain and watched Hurricane Hazel pour the waters of Lake Ontario over the sea wall and into our house. The rising water worked its way up to the top of the fifth step, where four of us, with our 16-year-old babysitter, wondered if we would ever see our parents again. I was 5 years old. Even bigger was my worry that we would be blamed for the mess in the house. Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600

1391. kmanislander 4:14 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: This is ridiculous, we're at the top of the scale! Off the scale actually in the Western Caribbean which shows all "white" Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

1392. TOMSEFLA 4:14 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
have read on the blog that ridge will become well established .but long range models show very little ridging to the north of any system that moves into caribbean. models show a sharp poleward turn.that is good for the us. Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 234

1394. TropicalAnalystwx13 4:15 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting Levi32: The Bay of Campeche seems mostly unlikely to see any development over the next 3 days. The thunderstorms are being generated by TD 11E, which has moved inland over the middle of Mexico from the eastern Pacific. Its circulation can be seen clearly on visible. The flow would support a northwest movement which would keep the depression mostly over Mexico, and although the center may get pretty close to the coast or even skirt the water, I doubt it will be able to develop. However, what should be watched for is a dissipation of the main center and a reformation to the north over the Bay of Campeche, which is certainly possible, in which case it would be a different story as upper winds are quite favorable. But for now, if TD 11E's center remains intact, I don't think it's too big of a problem. Good Morning to you too, Levi. lol Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25330

1395. CybrTeddy 4:15 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Anything that gets into the western Caribbean would really bomb out, look at the TCHP! Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20260

1396. Levi32 4:16 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Good Morning to you too, Levi. lol Sorry, good morning, lol. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

1397. TropicalAnalystwx13 4:16 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25330

1399. kmanislander 4:17 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: If I miss my guess, I believe that if a wave so much as FARTS in the Caribbean, it's going to be a monster! The pattern changed after Earl and those low lat storms now are more pointed west. No more fish turns mid Atlantic for awhile for them. Scary and exciting all at the same time! I think when I see a big catX heading toward me, the scale will tilt into the scary. Travel in this area is a cluster on a good day. Come Oct. and Nov. we then have the cold fronts to worry about as several major hurricanes have spun up from lows on the tail end of these. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

1400. washingtonian115 4:18 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: This is ridiculous, we're at the top of the scale! Just imagine if somethind gets in their.....I could already here the jaws music getting louder.That's insane.Another wilma like system is defentall not out of the question... Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10664

1401. Levi32 4:19 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting kmanislander: Come Oct. and Nov. we then have the cold fronts to worry about as several major hurricanes have spun up from lows on the tail end of these. That is true....and I've often wondered what we may see at the back end of this year given that it's a La Nina, and with SSTs abnormally warm, cold surges into the United States could cause big problems in the Caribbean late in the year. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

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