Earl's rain bands move over New England; Gaston regenerating?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:09 PM GMT on September 03, 2010

Share this Blog
1
+

Hurricane Earl has remained roughly constant in intensity over the past six hours, as it heads north-northeast at 20 mph towards New England. The latest center fix from the Hurricane Hunters, at 1:14pm EDT, found the pressure had remained constant since late morning, at 961 mb. Long range radar out of Long Island shows that Earl's outermost spiral bands have already brought as much as one inch of rain to portions of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with lesser amounts on Long Island and in Connecticut.


Figure 1. Afternoon radar image from the Long Island, New York radar.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track. Earl is still expected to pass 20 - 50 miles southeast of Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, at about 2am Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast of wind shear continues to show that shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Saturday. Ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C early Saturday morning, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will probably be a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England, and have 65 mph winds on Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada. I have no substantive changes to make to the impacts likely for New England and Canada that I discussed in this morning's post.


Figure 2. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 3:30pm EDT Friday, September 3, 2010. Note the 15 mph (13 kt) asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 20 mph to the north-northeast at the time. The highest contour had top winds of 65 kt (75 mph) surrounding the "+" on the east side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds on the left (northwest) side were just 52 knots (60 mph.) The asymmetry was greater--about 20 mph--at 6:30 am EDT this morning. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona has changed little this afternoon. Satellite loops continue to show that Fiona is a naked swirl of low clouds with just one diminishing spot of heavy thunderstorms on the southwest side of the circulation. High wind shear from Earl should continue to affect Fiona over the next two days, and will probably destroy the storm on Saturday.


Figure 3. Afternoon satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gaston may be regenerating
Recent satellite imagery continues to show that Gaston's remains are re-organizing. Gaston has a broad surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air lies to the west and north of Gaston's remains, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where the atmosphere is relatively moist, so this shear will be less harmful than usual for development. NHC is giving Gaston a 50% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Sunday; I put these odds higher, at 60%. The GFS, UKMET, and GFDL models develop Gaston and predict it will move though the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. The NOGAPS and HWRF models also develop Gaston, but predict a slower motion, bringing the storm near the northern Lesser Antilles 6 - 7 days from now. Given the steady increase in organization of Gaston's remains today and high degree of model support for regeneration, I expect Gaston will be a tropical storm again, early next week.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verdes Islands, is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear has dropped to 20 - 25 knots, and will decrease to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Saturday through Monday. The system will move over the Cape Verdes Islands over the weekend, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain squalls. NHC is giving the wave a 30% chance of developing by Sunday afternoon. Several models develop 99L into a tropical depression, but head it northwest into a region of very high wind shear that destroys the system by Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Saturday by 1pm.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC (OBXNCWEATHER)
Gas station in Nags Head, NC that fell victim to Hurricane Earl's winds.
Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC
Earl's waves (StormJunkie)
Earl's waves

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 43 - 1

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 — Blog Index

12z CMC Ensemble has a Gaston as a weak low pressure area crossing the Florida Straits into the GOM.
216hrs (Long-Range)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormJunkie:
I'm going to head back out there tomorrow and follow up with some erosion pics too...Earl took a lot of our beach with him.
Click on my avatar, it's one I took at an air show.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting katadman:
Surprized to see that photo of the toppled gas station awning. Watching local weather conditions there overnight gave no indication of winds strong enough to cause that type of damage. Perhaps shoddy construction?


None of the reports I've gotten from the ground would indicate that sort of damage being widespread...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see the usual Florida casters are out. We get a better idea where Ex-Gaston is headed once it becomes a TD & TS again. The models had Earl curving around Bermuda early on so early runs leave a lot to be desired.

It is only Sep 3 so we have a long way to go this Hurricane season. Just remember we had some bad ones in the Carribean in late OCTOBER with Mitch & Wilma. We have a while yet before this season closes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BLee2333:
SAL

Link


Thanks, you are awesome. I will post the image too... seems as if there is little dry air impeding the potential development of "Gaston"... and what is there will continue to erode.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.

From the previous blog about the SEFL heat.

Hottest Summer Ever In South Florida.

My electric bill is surely showing it. Nighttime lows are the kicker, no relief for the AC turning 24/7.


That is written by our friend Ken Kaye (here known as StormKen)...

thanks for posting the link..
record cold followed by record heat!



some of the neighbors are freaking out by the highest electrica bills they ever received..

ours are always high so not much different this summer...we try not to use so much a/c during day while we are gone or even when we are home...
but we must crank that a/c down at night so we can sleep comfortable...


but in return, our Jan - March electric bills were the lowest in years. so I guess it evens out? LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.

From the previous blog about the SEFL heat.

Hottest Summer Ever In South Florida.

My electric bill is surely showing it. Nighttime lows are the kicker, no relief for the AC turning 24/7.
An omen? LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21178
Quoting BLee2333:
SAL

Link


mm SAL's diminishing around gaston's remains
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Doctor Masters!!!

Great Update !!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormJunkie:


Doing well...In the same situation as you...On my third term now with three more to go after this. Brain is in meltdown mode!

Nice to know someone understands. I have four left plus thesis and fieldwork in India all next summer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.

From the previous blog about the SEFL heat.

Hottest Summer Ever In South Florida.

My electric bill is surely showing it. Nighttime lows are the kicker, no relief for the AC turning 24/7.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm going to head back out there tomorrow and follow up with some erosion pics too...Earl took a lot of our beach with him.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gaston is now running trough diurnal minimum.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SAL

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Dr Masters. Where do you get those satellite images of the Central Atlantic?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It is Gamma...My very first one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SJ, that picture Dr Jeff has in the header that you took is that your AC photo?

that is beautiful!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Dr. Masters. I was expecting that Earl would not be as bad as people thought and so far I'm right. I live in North Jersey and there was a 20 minute shower and that's it. Winds of only 10 mph. Not many clouds.

"Fiona" should be dead tomorrow. I'm surprised it's not dead already. It looks nothing like a tropical storm or even a depression.

As for Gaston... a comeback is more likely than not. I think we will see Tropical Depression Gaston again tomorrow morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormJunkie:
Thanks DR M for using my AC photo :) And for the update.
Nice shot. I have the same camera.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone have the link for the SAL that is often posted on here? Is the SAL eroding around the remnant "Gaston", perhaps helping to refire convection?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Surprized to see that photo of the toppled gas station awning. Watching local weather conditions there overnight gave no indication of winds strong enough to cause that type of damage. Perhaps shoddy construction?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CatastrophicDL:

Hey SJ - not too much to share this season. My class schedule has had my brain fried for the last two and half semesters (all the summer too :o( ) But I have been watching everyone's posts and watching the tropics of course. I did manage to post a few pictures, but that's been about it. You doing good?


Doing well...In the same situation as you...On my third term now with three more to go after this. Brain is in meltdown mode!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Any models showing any GOM storms in the near future? Links to those please if so. Thanks in advance.
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
7.0 earthquake in New Zealand...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormJunkie:
Hey DL :))

Great to see you...Miss your highly educational and knowledgeable posts!

Hey SJ - not too much to share this season. My class schedule has had my brain fried for the last two and half semesters (all the summer too :o( ) But I have been watching everyone's posts and watching the tropics of course. I did manage to post a few pictures, but that's been about it. You doing good?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thank you, Dr. M
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Brought forward from the old blog:

Your thoughts on this:

A 2010 report correlates low sunspot activity with high cyclonic activity. Fewer sunspots appear to decrease temperature in the upper atmosphere, creating unstable conditions that help create cyclones. Analyzing historical data, there had been a 25% chance of at least one hurricane striking the continental US during a peak sunspot year; a 64% chance during a low sunspot year.

I believe the lull in TCs we had earlier this season correlated with the two solar storms we experienced. I would have to check the dates, but interesting none the less...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks DR M for using my AC photo :) And for the update.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thank ou doc.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16906
Thanks for the info Dr. M--- informative as usual!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I cannot believe this...isn't this the 3rd blog for Sept 3rd???

Thanks Dr Masters!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tonight may be interesting with gaston.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters. Very informative as usual.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21178
Thanks Jeff...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thank you for the update, Sir.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Dr. Masters. Earl has pretty much been a flop from an New Yorker's perspective. The most we've gotten is a little rain and wind. It's just a rainy day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey DL :))

Great to see you...Miss your highly educational and knowledgeable posts!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 43 - 1

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 — Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
80 °F
Mostly Cloudy