Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting DaytonaNative:


That was the best part about Wilma...was nice to finally be able to leave the window's open at night.....too bad it didn't last! Floyd had the same effect (without as much damage) up in Daytona, I remember having to wear long sleeves to stay warm the next day as we traveled around helping ppl with "treee issues".

Wilma was moving into a cold front when it crossed S FL, so I am not surprised that it was colder right after Wilma passed. Charley 2004 did the same thing, does anyone remember if it was cooler right after Charley passed?

I was actually surprised to hear Floyd made it cooler in Florida. It wasn't quiet moving into a cold front yet when it was passing east of Florida.

Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Being up in North Carolina, can't say how bad Wilma was in Florida. I wonder, it seemed that storm caught many S Floridians by surprise, am I right?

Not if you were here on WU.. it caught many in South Florida by surprise... the general public because we did not put up watches and warning quick enough.. and the "east coast" was not suppose to get it bad.. it was suppose to have been West Coast of SFla that got slammed not us..

but I was here blogging on Dr Master's and lefty's blogs all night.. thank goodness my home was ready... I knew it was going to be worse than the news reporters were making out...



and they will eventually discovered the 3rd most distructive hurricane in the US was not a Cat2 while causing all this distruction..



see this: it is still listed here as Cat 3.


The 30 Costliest U.S. Hurricanes


Rank: Name: Year: Category: Damage (U.S.)*:
1. Katrina (LA/MS/AL/SE FL) 2005 3 $81,000,000,000
2. Andrew (SE FL/SE LA) 1992 5 $34,954,825,000
3. Wilma (FL) 2005 3 $20,600,000,000

Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
Like to know where the 124mph gust was recorded.

On top of my house. My Avatar was her parting gift. Definitely a Cat 3 on exit. BTW. I'm in PSL too.

Quoting seflagamma:


Not if you were here on WU.. it caught many in South Florida by surprise... the general public because we did not put up watches and warning quick enough.. and the "east coast" was not suppose to get it bad.. it was suppose to have been West Coast of SFla that got slammed not us..

but I was here blogging on Dr Master's and lefty's blogs all night.. thank goodness my home was ready... I knew it was going to be worse than the news reporters were making out...



and they will eventually discovered the 3rd most distructive hurricane in the US was not a Cat2 while causing all this distruction..



see this: it is still listed here as Cat 3.


The 30 Costliest U.S. Hurricanes


Rank: Name: Year: Category: Damage (U.S.)*:
1. Katrina (LA/MS/AL/SE FL) 2005 3 $81,000,000,000
2. Andrew (SE FL/SE LA) 1992 5 $34,954,825,000
3. Wilma (FL) 2005 3 $20,600,000,000

Yeah, Wilma was at cat. 3 at landfall, weakened to a cat. 2 by the time it made it to the east coast, then came back to cat. 3 over the Warm Gulf stream, afterwards it became extratropical while weakening back to cat. 1

Wilma was so bad because it was a cat. 3 with a massive eye wall (so cat. 3 winds were in a larger area than normal). Katrina's storm surge when it was a cat. 3 at landfall was comparable to compact cat. 5 Camille. When hurricanes have larger than normal eyes at major hurricane status, they can produce a heck of a lot of storm surge at the coast, and they can produce a larger wind field over land well away from the center.

Quoting Hoff511:


On top of my house. My Avatar was her parting gift. Definitely a Cat 3 on exit. BTW. I'm in PSL too.

124 mph GUST. If it was 124 mph SUSTAINED, then it would have been a cat. 3. But here's the thing, a cat. 2 hurricane can have cat. 3, heck in some cases cat. 4, gusts. Its sustained winds, not wind gusts, that are used to rate the category of a hurricane.

So when it was on the E coast of Florida, it was a cat. 2 with cat. 3 gusts.

“The old saying goes that economic forecasters were invented to make meteorologists look accurate.”

Quoting NCHurricane2009:


124 mph GUST. If it was 124 mph SUSTAINED, then it would have been a cat. 3. But here's the thing, a cat. 2 hurricane can have cat. 3, heck in some cases cat. 4, gusts. Its sustained winds, not wind gusts, that are used to rate the category of a hurricane.

So when it was on the E coast of Florida, it was a cat. 2 with cat. 3 gusts.

I mean no disrespect and know what the official record says. However, going through it and watching the radar of her entire track across FL you can visibly see her strengthen while exiting the east coast.. JMHO.

Quoting Hoff511:


I mean no disrespect and know what the official record says. However, going through it and watching the radar of her entire track across FL you can visibly see her strength. JMHO.

Interesting, I wish I could have seen the radar you were seeing, can't say what you saw after all. I know more about the official records than anything else :)

Was it velocity doppler you were using, or did you see that Wilma's eye wall structure was always intact on the reflectivity. I don't know how to gauge wind speed on good ol' reflectivity radars, and haven't really practiced using velocity doppler.

phew, thank u guys for all the help with Earl, it was a hairy couple of days that was for sure, in nova scotia we can deal with 100 km wind gusts or 60 mph,not 175 km wind gusts as it looked 2 days ago that would have devasted a large area of our province and i'm quite certain we would have needed help to restore the power from power crews in quebec and our friends in maine.i don't know if any of you have gone without power for 22 days but i can tell u it sucks especially the cold showers that was after it took 11 days to get out water back. i hope that you folks in cape cod stay safe and sorry to here about the bad damage in north carolina, but it could have been alot worse. thx dr.masters, stormw,patrap miamihurricanes,and anyone else that i may have missed,i may be able to get some pictures for you now that i know it will like a normal nor easter that we go through on a yearly basis here.lol time to refocus on the atlantic and the train of storms coming accross the atlantic

By the way, Earl is sparing New York City, doesn't seem like ther'll be tropical storm sustained winds there. Current conditions as Earl passes just to the east:

New York City, Central Park
Lat: 40.78 Lon: -73.97 Elev: 144
Last Update on Sep 3, 5:51 pm EDT

Overcast

82 °F
(28 °C)
Humidity: 69 %
Wind Speed: N 6 MPH
Barometer: 29.57" (1000.3 mb)
Dewpoint: 71 °F (22 °C)
Heat Index: 86 °F (30 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

Quoting btwntx08:
man so boring in here what happen ppl

Everyone is being civil today, according to the discussion from earlier.

Quoting Hoff511:


I mean no disrespect and know what the official record says. However, going through it and watching the radar of her entire track across FL you can visibly see her strength. JMHO.

Wow, sorry about your house. Also, as soon as her eye started to get back over water, deepening commenced quite rapidly. So we probably experienced the effects of this perhaps more strongly than anywhere else that got the north side of the eye.

Quoting alfabob:
990mb with 44.7 mph gusts in lake superior, that's almost comparable to a weak TS right?

990 mb is nearing Hurricane strength.

1. Katrina (LA/MS/AL/SE FL) 2005 3 $81,000,000,000
huh that $81,000,000,000 wrong .more like 168 0,000,000,000 b

Quoting OceanMoan:


Everyone is being civil today, according to the discussion from earlier.

Evening OM, good to see you. Did y'all have fun yesterday? Recognize the pic above? Wish I had seen the boat breaking up. Apparently Sheriff Ray Nash was out there too at the time and saw it. Biggest surf I have seen out there in a long long time.

Quoting xcool:

That is more south than earlier right?

Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Interesting, I wish I could have seen the radar you were seeing, can't say what you saw after all. I know more about the official records than anything else :)

Was it velocity doppler you were using, or did you see that Wilma's eye wall structure was always intact on the reflectivity. I don't know how to gauge wind speed on good ol' reflectivity radars, and haven't really practiced using velocity doppler.

Wilma actually produced the most destruction on the East Coast of Florida because of the cold front. At least that is what they suspect. I can tell you that the back half of the storm was substantially stronger based on the front and storm merging at that time. On the other hand the 60 degree temps after the storm were weird but very nice when you don't have power.

Quoting 1fromnovasscotia:
phew, thank u guys for all the help with Earl, it was a hairy couple of days that was for sure, in nova scotia we can deal with 100 km wind gusts or 60 mph,not 175 km wind gusts as it looked 2 days ago that would have devasted a large area of our province and i'm quite certain we would have needed help to restore the power from power crews in quebec and our friends in maine.i don't know if any of you have gone without power for 22 days but i can tell u it sucks especially the cold showers that was after it took 11 days to get out water back. i hope that you folks in cape cod stay safe and sorry to here about the bad damage in north carolina, but it could have been alot worse. thx dr.masters, stormw,patrap miamihurricanes,and anyone else that i may have missed,i may be able to get some pictures for you now that i know it will like a normal nor easter that we go through on a yearly basis here.lol time to refocus on the atlantic and the train of storms coming accross the atlantic

Check out my intensity forecast. So, far Earl has been following the lower end of that intensity forecast. Got it right so far because I said Earl would be 115 to 105 mph tops in the eye wall when it passed by Cape Hatteras, and it was 105. I am saying Earl will be between 70 to 80 mph tops at the center when it passes by Cape Cod, so far looking like its headed that way. So for Nova Scotia, 50 to 60 mph max winds is what I am thinking.

Glad to see that you are reassured about such winds. Where I live, we don't get nor'easter winds, 50 to 60 mph winds and 1" of snow is the end of the world here. I kid you not, from where I live, 1" of snow paralyzed our city LOL, let me see if I can find a news article about it.

TexasHurricane i dnot know .i take break from here.

Quoting sammywammybamy:


Gamma that list is somewhat incorrect.

If Andrew hit Miami today and 5 miles north it would be way higher upwards of 100,000,000,000

I got that list from the list here on WU...

and I agree, if Andrew had come in at Broward Dade County line as original forcast and not taken that south west wobble.. it would have been an even worse case than we could have imagined... we were "overall" so luck it did come ashore in South Dade...
(I know many who had homes destroyed by Andrew and they were not lucky but you know what I am talking about)

If Andrew had destroyed all of Miami and Ft Lauderdale that would have by far been the most costly disaster we have ever seen and the deaths would have been unimaginable ...because people did not really know how to prepare back then and our homes were not all up to code like they are today.

And those Cat 5 winds destroyed far inland also..

excellent point.

Quoting StormJunkie:


Evening OM, good to see you. Did y'all have fun yesterday? Recognize the pic above? Wish I had seen the boat breaking up. Apparently Sheriff Ray Nash was out there too at the time and saw it. Biggest surf I have seen out there in a long long time.

I recognized the picture as soon as I saw it, and wasn't surprised to see it was yours. We had a blast yesterday. I got a few pics of the boaters with my cell phone, so they aren't very good. I put them on facebook.

Gaston is showing increased convection this evening and about to head off to the West. An interesting few days ahead I think. Vorticity at the 850 mb height is looking nice and symmetrical as well with a solid signature.

Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Wilma was moving into a cold front when it crossed S FL, so I am not surprised that it was colder right after Wilma passed. Charley 2004 did the same thing, does anyone remember if it was cooler right after Charley passed?

I was actually surprised to hear Floyd made it cooler in Florida. It wasn't quiet moving into a cold front yet when it was passing east of Florida.

Neither did "Earl" at the time it passed FL... since the front was well north and west over the Plains at the time, but it was in the upper 60s/low 70s the past couple mornings here... which is significantly cooler than it has been lately (lately in the upper 70s/low 80s at night)

Quoting xcool:
TexasHurricane i dnot know .i take break from here.

hmmmm, ok.

Quoting NCHurricane2009:



Check out my intensity forecast. So, far Earl has been following the lower end of that intensity forecast. Got it right so far because I said Earl would be 115 to 105 mph tops in the eye wall when it passed by Cape Hatteras, and it was 105. I am saying Earl will be between 70 to 80 mph tops at the center when it passes by Cape Cod, so far looking like its headed that way. So for Nova Scotia, 50 to 60 mph max winds is what I am thinking.

Glad to see that you are reassured about such winds. Where I live, we don't get nor'easter winds, 50 to 60 mph winds and 1" of snow is the end of the world here. I kid you not, from where I live, 1" of snow paralyzed our city LOL, let me see if I can find a news article about it.

Yeah, yeah, here's the article. You guys up north will laugh so hard at this (I live in Raleigh, NC). It was January 2005.

http://raleighskyline.com/content/2006/11/21/the-half-inch-of-snow-that-paralyzed-raleigh/

15 N 42.5 W and organizing

Gaston is waking up

Quoting seflagamma:


I got that list from the list here on WU...

and I agree, if Andrew had come in at Broward Dade County line as original forcast and not taken that south west wobble.. it would have been an even worse case than we could have imagined... we were "overall" so luck it did come ashore in South Dade...
(I know many who had homes destroyed by Andrew and they were not lucky but you know what I am talking about)

If Andrew had destroyed all of Miami and Ft Lauderdale that would have by far been the most costly disaster we have ever seen and the deaths would have been unimaginable ...because people did not really know how to prepare back then and our homes were not all up to code like they are today.

excellent point.

You could do this with any storm, however that would simply be ridiculous. You can only equate to todays dollars but you can't say well if it had hit here or here or here.

lol gfs

Quoting kmanislander:
Gaston is showing increased convection this evening and about to head off to the West. An interesting few days ahead I think. Vorticity at the 850 mb height is looking nice and symmetrical as well with a solid signature.

looking at the steering, I have to see what the models are seeing that turns this northward after the islands

Quoting kmanislander:
Gaston is showing increased convection this evening and about to head off to the West. An interesting few days ahead I think. Vorticity at the 850 mb height is looking nice and symmetrical as well with a solid signature.

Any models showing Gaston recurving northward into a ridge weakness over the next few days? Is Gaston supposed to make a B-line toward the east coast from the Caribbean, or is it heading toward the Gulf of Mexico after the Caribbean?

Kman, thanks for the Gaston information and data.. since it is not available here!

We all will be watching this one for sure.

Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Any models showing Gaston recurving northward into a ridge weakness over the next few days? Is Gaston supposed to make a B-line toward the east coast from the Caribbean, or is it heading toward the Gulf of Mexico after the Caribbean?

To early to tell

Very nice, just went and checked it out...That's one little boat...idiots...

Quoting CaribBoy:
Gaston is waking up

Hey Gaston, how was that nap? Why can't you stay asleep? Go back to bed!

133 I remember that!!! I live in Nashville NC and it took me 1 hour to drive 13 miles home from work. The roads had turned to pure ice and no one even with 4 wheel drive could move.

Quoting Hurricanes101:


looking at the steering, I have to see what the models are seeing that turns this northward after the islands

The long range steering at 144 hrs shows a small weakness between the flow near PR which is to the West and the flow over Eastern Cuba which is forecasted to be from the NE to SW. I think that is what the models believe will allow Gaston to lift to the N of Hispaniola, perhaps through the Mona passage, after passing PR and then resuming a track to the WNW.

Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Any models showing Gaston recurving northward into a ridge weakness over the next few days? Is Gaston supposed to make a B-line toward the east coast from the Caribbean, or is it heading toward the Gulf of Mexico after the Caribbean?

See post 147

Quoting Hurricanes101:


looking at the steering, I have to see what the models are seeing that turns this northward after the islands

Whaaat? They do? I think Gaston will end up in the Caribbean, at least the eastern Caribbean. How the heck are the models turning it northward at the islands?

Quoting kmanislander:


The long range steering at 144 hrs shows a small weakness between the flow near PR which is to the West and the flow over Eastern Cuba which is forecasted to be from the NE to SW. I think that is what the models believe will allow Gaston to lift to the N of Hispaniola, perhaps through the Mona passage, after passing PR and then resuming a track to the WNW.

Oooo, that can't be good.

forecast models All Over the Place cmc out sea /gfs in cab .