Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl's rain bands move over New England; Gaston regenerating?

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:09 PM GMT on September 03, 2010

Hurricane Earl has remained roughly constant in intensity over the past six hours, as it heads north-northeast at 20 mph towards New England. The latest center fix from the Hurricane Hunters, at 1:14pm EDT, found the pressure had remained constant since late morning, at 961 mb. Long range radar out of Long Island shows that Earl's outermost spiral bands have already brought as much as one inch of rain to portions of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with lesser amounts on Long Island and in Connecticut.

Figure 1. Afternoon radar image from the Long Island, New York radar.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track. Earl is still expected to pass 20 - 50 miles southeast of Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, at about 2am Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast of wind shear continues to show that shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Saturday. Ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C early Saturday morning, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will probably be a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England, and have 65 mph winds on Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada. I have no substantive changes to make to the impacts likely for New England and Canada that I discussed in this morning's post.

Figure 2. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 3:30pm EDT Friday, September 3, 2010. Note the 15 mph (13 kt) asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 20 mph to the north-northeast at the time. The highest contour had top winds of 65 kt (75 mph) surrounding the "+" on the east side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds on the left (northwest) side were just 52 knots (60 mph.) The asymmetry was greater--about 20 mph--at 6:30 am EDT this morning. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona has changed little this afternoon. Satellite loops continue to show that Fiona is a naked swirl of low clouds with just one diminishing spot of heavy thunderstorms on the southwest side of the circulation. High wind shear from Earl should continue to affect Fiona over the next two days, and will probably destroy the storm on Saturday.

Figure 3. Afternoon satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gaston may be regenerating
Recent satellite imagery continues to show that Gaston's remains are re-organizing. Gaston has a broad surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air lies to the west and north of Gaston's remains, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where the atmosphere is relatively moist, so this shear will be less harmful than usual for development. NHC is giving Gaston a 50% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Sunday; I put these odds higher, at 60%. The GFS, UKMET, and GFDL models develop Gaston and predict it will move though the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. The NOGAPS and HWRF models also develop Gaston, but predict a slower motion, bringing the storm near the northern Lesser Antilles 6 - 7 days from now. Given the steady increase in organization of Gaston's remains today and high degree of model support for regeneration, I expect Gaston will be a tropical storm again, early next week.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verdes Islands, is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear has dropped to 20 - 25 knots, and will decrease to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Saturday through Monday. The system will move over the Cape Verdes Islands over the weekend, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain squalls. NHC is giving the wave a 30% chance of developing by Sunday afternoon. Several models develop 99L into a tropical depression, but head it northwest into a region of very high wind shear that destroys the system by Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Saturday by 1pm.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC (OBXNCWEATHER)

Gas station in Nags Head, NC that fell victim to Hurricane Earl's winds.

Earl's waves (StormJunkie)

Categories: Hurricane

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 201 - 251

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 — Blog Index

201. kmanislander 11:01 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting winter123: Earl has not even made landfall yet and we're already talking about some puff of clouds (ex-Gaston) in the middle of nowhere. Crazy. Earl is no threat to me but Gaston potentially is. Different perspective. Lots of room on the blog for everyone to discuss the thread of their choosing. Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

202. NCHurricane2009 11:02 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting kmanislander: Gaston heard you chuckling LOL I guess I better be careful when laughing at storms. Ooops, too late, I just laughed at Fiona before you posted that XD Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

204. stormwatcherCI 11:02 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting kmanislander: Earl is no threat to me but Gaston potentially is. Different perspective. Lots of room on the blog for everyone to discuss the thread of their choosing. Amen. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8043

205. NCHurricane2009 11:03 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting Kowaliga: Gaston still getting scooped... GFS still adamant with the 9/14 trof - deep digger! Where is the GFS curving Gaston northward on 9/14? Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

206. teammc 11:04 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
StormW, I would like to hear more of your thoughts on Gaston. Your usually 100% right. Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 106

207. Brennen 11:04 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting xcool: lol gfs apparently Hispanola has installed a deflector shield according to GFS. Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 0

208. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 11:04 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting winter123: This looks like a front I'd see in late November. It really saved the carolinas from a devastation category 4 or 5 landfall! Also I cannot wait for the cool air it will bring. Link i feel the wind blowin though my doorway its telling me that the summers gone and that winter waits in the shadow waitin with the storm Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651

209. MiamiHurricanes09 11:04 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting winter123: Earl has not even made landfall yet and we're already talking about some puff of clouds (ex-Gaston) in the middle of nowhere. Crazy. You're free to discuss whatever you choose here as long as it is relevant to tropical weather or the blog topic, and Gaston evidently is. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

210. hulazigzag 11:05 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting KerryInNOLA: It looks like this season so far is on track to be one of the mildest in terms of damage to the Us. Earl caused minimal damage and everything on the radar appears to be fish or degenerates. Sorry you greedy roofers and scalping fly by night rip off tree surgeons. You'll have to eat those nails and shingles and open up a chain saw museum. The season is over? Member Since: July 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 240

211. Kowaliga 11:06 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Storm, do you think this troughing pattern the GFS keeps trying to print in a week or so is its sensing the NAO swinging back positive? I'm basing this Q from the earlier discussion on your blog. (BTW, I'm glad my pic. didn't scare you away - its from Universal/HHN last year. ...delightfully ugly!!!) Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 211

212. weathermancer 11:06 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: i feel the wind blowin though my doorway its telling me that the summers gone and that winter waits in the shadow waitin with the storm A poetic robot. cool Member Since: August 29, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 481

214. CapeTip 11:09 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Hi All Greatings from Provincetown, MA, at the very tip of cape cod. I am unsure of what to expect tonight as the forecast keeps changing with fewer and fewer specifics. Preparations are complete here, and while the windows aren't boarded up, everything is tied down (around my place at least). Reports are of a quickly diminishing storm. Yet it still looks like a big storm to me and I feel awfully close to it? What to expect? How much wind? When will the winds be worst? The media is focusing on the boston area but little mention of the outer cape. ... any tips? thanks... I'll post back tomorrow or later if possible Member Since: September 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1

215. thewindman 11:10 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
After September 1st it is TOOOO Late for storms to hit the Eastern Seaboard. There is just too many troughs moving in as fall approaches. The Gulf is the only place or maybe southern tip of Florida for any landfall. Anything north of 22 to 25 latitude will get scooped up by the multiple storm systems moving cross country Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 143

216. weatherwart 11:11 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: The convective organization of Fiona is very, very poor. To me, it doesn't appear to be a tropical cyclone anymore and should be discontinued. Hey Miami. No, she doesn't look good. Some strange behavior, too. Look at the weird ghostly swirl just to the NE at 30N/65W. Really strange. Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 873

217. kmanislander 11:11 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Back later Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

219. PSLFLCaneVet 11:12 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: i feel the wind blowin though my doorway its telling me that the summers gone and that winter waits in the shadow waitin with the storm Wow, a Chris De Burgh ref. Not gonna be winter here any time soon! Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

220. hulazigzag 11:12 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting thewindman: After September 1st it is TOOOO Late for storms to hit the Eastern Seaboard. There is just too many troughs moving in as fall approaches. The Gulf is the only place or maybe southern tip of Florida for any landfall. Anything north of 22 to 25 latitude will get scooped up by the multiple storm systems moving cross country false Member Since: July 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 240

221. Caymanfishnut 11:12 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting kmanislander: Earl is no threat to me but Gaston potentially is. Different perspective. Lots of room on the blog for everyone to discuss the thread of their choosing. Two thumbs up Kman Member Since: June 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 18

223. stormwatcherCI 11:15 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting Caymanfishnut: Two thumbs up Kman Every time I turn around I see another blogger from Cayman. Where in Cayman are you located ? Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8043

224. stormwatcherCI 11:16 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting KerryInNOLA: Quoting winter123: Earl has not even made landfall yet and we're already talking about some puff of clouds (ex-Gaston) in the middle of nowhere. Crazy. Earl is no threat to me but Gaston potentially is. Different perspective. Lots of room on the blog for everyone to discuss the thread of their choosing. 2 days ago they had Gaston in the Gulf. Yesterday it hit NYC and today Bermuda. ECMWF doesn't develop it. I wouldn't get too worried. A lot of these casters have vested interests in landstrikes. Roofers, generator and flashlight salesman and self employed" weathermen" with private clients like BP. No-one said they are worried but we do have to monitor it. The potential is there or the NHC wouldn't have it at 50%. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8043

225. Hurricanes101 11:16 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting KerryInNOLA: Quoting winter123: Earl has not even made landfall yet and we're already talking about some puff of clouds (ex-Gaston) in the middle of nowhere. Crazy. Earl is no threat to me but Gaston potentially is. Different perspective. Lots of room on the blog for everyone to discuss the thread of their choosing. 2 days ago they had Gaston in the Gulf. Yesterday it hit NYC and today Bermuda. ECMWF doesn't develop it. I wouldn't get too worried. A lot of these casters have vested interests in landstrikes. Roofers, generator and flashlight salesman and self employed" weathermen" with private clients like BP. As far as I can tell, kman, StormW, MH09, Levi, myself and others that are talking about Gaston redeveloping; do not have any sort of monetary interest in storms making landfall in certain areas. Seriously, I am sick and tired of people being called casters of some kind just because god forbid they think that a system may affect land based on factual observations. Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

227. stormwatcherCI 11:18 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: As far as I can tell, kman, StormW, MH09, Levi, myself and others that are talking about Gaston redeveloping; do not have any sort of monetary interest in storms making landfall in certain areas. Seriously, I am sick and tired of people being called casters of some kind just because god forbid they think that a system may affect land based on factual observations. I wonder what the sense of having a blog if you are not allowed to discuss potential TC's. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8043

228. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 11:18 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
07L/08L/FORMER 09L Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651

230. Kowaliga 11:18 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting StormW: I don't think it's picking up on the MJO supposedly coming back to octants 1&2. That's where the tricky part is...I have been looking at the NAO correlations for landfalls, and it seems the BEST shot, is when the NAO heads toward the positive, but remains near neutral, or slightly negative. ;-) Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 211

231. hulazigzag 11:19 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting KerryInNOLA: Quoting winter123: Earl has not even made landfall yet and we're already talking about some puff of clouds (ex-Gaston) in the middle of nowhere. Crazy. Earl is no threat to me but Gaston potentially is. Different perspective. Lots of room on the blog for everyone to discuss the thread of their choosing. 2 days ago they had Gaston in the Gulf. Yesterday it hit NYC and today Bermuda. ECMWF doesn't develop it. I wouldn't get too worried. A lot of these casters have vested interests in landstrikes. Roofers, generator and flashlight salesman and self employed" weathermen" with private clients like BP. it's called being prepared. Member Since: July 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 240

232. muddertracker 11:19 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting StormW: Quoting thewindman: After September 1st it is TOOOO Late for storms to hit the Eastern Seaboard. There is just too many troughs moving in as fall approaches. The Gulf is the only place or maybe southern tip of Florida for any landfall. Anything north of 22 to 25 latitude will get scooped up by the multiple storm systems moving cross country Obviously...you have no clue roflmao!!!!!! way to go Storm!!!!!! ahahhahahah Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2127

233. Hurricanes101 11:19 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting StormW: Quoting thewindman: After September 1st it is TOOOO Late for storms to hit the Eastern Seaboard. There is just too many troughs moving in as fall approaches. The Gulf is the only place or maybe southern tip of Florida for any landfall. Anything north of 22 to 25 latitude will get scooped up by the multiple storm systems moving cross country Obviously...you have no clue he must also forget storms like Frances, Ike, Hugo, Jeanne, Hazel, Gloria should I go on? maybe I should Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

234. wunderkidcayman 11:20 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
lol that will be 4 thumbs up kmanislander two from me and two from Caymanfishnut Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5510

235. stormwatcherCI 11:20 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Maybe this is what some models are showing in the BOC in a few days. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8043

237. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 11:21 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet: Wow, a Chris De Burgh ref. Not gonna be winter here any time soon! yes chris one of my favs and up here there is a chill to the air in fact ac may be turned off for the first time since late june tonight Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651

239. Hurricanes101 11:23 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: he must also forget storms like Frances, Ike, Hugo, Jeanne, Hazel, Glorida should I go on? maybe I should Fran, David, 1947 Fort Lauderdale hurricane has the highest recorded wind gust in Florida history Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

240. stormwatcherCI 11:23 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting RecordSeason: 235: It is. From this graphic it looks so. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8043

241. sflawavedude 11:23 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Yup once fall rolls around the fronts come fast and it pretty much puts the kibosh on the east coast season. The east gulf will remain open and carib too. :) Member Since: June 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 131

242. teammc 11:24 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Thank you, StormW Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 106

243. hulazigzag 11:26 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting sflawavedude: Yup once fall rolls around the fronts come fast and it pretty much puts the kibosh on the east coast season. The east gulf will remain open and carib too. :) guess you missed post 226. Member Since: July 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 240

244. MiamiHurricanes09 11:26 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI: Maybe this is what some models are showing in the BOC in a few days. It is. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

246. CybrTeddy 11:26 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Lived in southern Chesapeake VA in Sept. '03. The damage was unbelievable in my area. So many trees down, Chesapeake a county full of 'em so you can imagine a lot of houses were destroyed just because of that. You tell that to me or anyone that went through Isabel that hurricanes can't hit the East coast in September and you'll be thinking otherwise after the conversation is done that's for sure. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20278

247. JLPR2 11:26 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Ex-Gaston looks happier, lets see how it does tonight, but remember, the farther west it goes, the higher the SSTs and TCHP. Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

248. tinkahbell 11:27 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Great Atlantic Hurricane...Hazel...New England Hurricane of 1938...Donna...Hugo.... Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 249

249. will40 11:27 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Oceanside of Emerald Isle, Emerald Isle, North Carolina (PWS) Updated: 2 sec ago 83.7 °F Clear Humidity: 69% Dew Point: 72 °F yea right fall this is at 7:30 PM Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 3439

250. Hurricanes101 11:28 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting tinkahbell: Great Atlantic Hurricane...Hazel...New England Hurricane of 1938...Donna...Hugo.... forgot about Donna and the Long Island Express good ones Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

Viewing: 201 - 251

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 — Blog Index

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About JeffMasters