Earl's rain bands move over New England; Gaston regenerating?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:09 PM GMT on September 03, 2010

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Hurricane Earl has remained roughly constant in intensity over the past six hours, as it heads north-northeast at 20 mph towards New England. The latest center fix from the Hurricane Hunters, at 1:14pm EDT, found the pressure had remained constant since late morning, at 961 mb. Long range radar out of Long Island shows that Earl's outermost spiral bands have already brought as much as one inch of rain to portions of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with lesser amounts on Long Island and in Connecticut.


Figure 1. Afternoon radar image from the Long Island, New York radar.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track. Earl is still expected to pass 20 - 50 miles southeast of Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, at about 2am Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast of wind shear continues to show that shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Saturday. Ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C early Saturday morning, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will probably be a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England, and have 65 mph winds on Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada. I have no substantive changes to make to the impacts likely for New England and Canada that I discussed in this morning's post.


Figure 2. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 3:30pm EDT Friday, September 3, 2010. Note the 15 mph (13 kt) asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 20 mph to the north-northeast at the time. The highest contour had top winds of 65 kt (75 mph) surrounding the "+" on the east side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds on the left (northwest) side were just 52 knots (60 mph.) The asymmetry was greater--about 20 mph--at 6:30 am EDT this morning. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona has changed little this afternoon. Satellite loops continue to show that Fiona is a naked swirl of low clouds with just one diminishing spot of heavy thunderstorms on the southwest side of the circulation. High wind shear from Earl should continue to affect Fiona over the next two days, and will probably destroy the storm on Saturday.


Figure 3. Afternoon satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gaston may be regenerating
Recent satellite imagery continues to show that Gaston's remains are re-organizing. Gaston has a broad surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air lies to the west and north of Gaston's remains, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where the atmosphere is relatively moist, so this shear will be less harmful than usual for development. NHC is giving Gaston a 50% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Sunday; I put these odds higher, at 60%. The GFS, UKMET, and GFDL models develop Gaston and predict it will move though the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. The NOGAPS and HWRF models also develop Gaston, but predict a slower motion, bringing the storm near the northern Lesser Antilles 6 - 7 days from now. Given the steady increase in organization of Gaston's remains today and high degree of model support for regeneration, I expect Gaston will be a tropical storm again, early next week.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verdes Islands, is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear has dropped to 20 - 25 knots, and will decrease to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Saturday through Monday. The system will move over the Cape Verdes Islands over the weekend, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain squalls. NHC is giving the wave a 30% chance of developing by Sunday afternoon. Several models develop 99L into a tropical depression, but head it northwest into a region of very high wind shear that destroys the system by Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Saturday by 1pm.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC (OBXNCWEATHER)
Gas station in Nags Head, NC that fell victim to Hurricane Earl's winds.
Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC
Earl's waves (StormJunkie)
Earl's waves

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Good to see that the NHC mentioned the area of disturbed weather in the BOC. If some of the global models do prove correct that area might become a tropical cyclone. The GFS has been consistent with this solution and so has the CMC, but the ECMWF has been back and forth. NOGAPS doesn't appear interested. And finally the NAM (for what it's worth) develops that area.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
12z NAM FWIW



I don't think the BOC system will be that intense.
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80,000 people without power now in Nova Scotia and climbing at a very quick rate i still have mine but probably not for to much longer
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1239. h0db
Quoting weathers4me:
Thought I'd stir the conversation pot today. Sorry for confusing everyone. The Herbet box is theory only. You all are smart enough to know that though... LOL


The Hebert box is kind of like "Moore's Law" regarding computers... it was meant as a passing observation and was distorted into prophecy.
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1238. Grothar
Quoting KanKunKid:


Bump is just a word to show that they are refreshing an old post from another page or "bumping it up front"
I have an 18 year old and I get the "skinny" on all the new and old expressions and when they are used. Most of them come from rappers who lack a sufficient vocabulary and make up words to express themselves taking other words and holding them for ransom. Their followers (like sheep) pick up the expressions (yeah, just like back in the 60's man, "be cool") and they become proliferated quickly and pass quickly among the young with no regard to sex or race. After a few years, you can age yourself by the expressions you use just as with the clothes you wear and the kids pick up on it. If you wanted to keep something confidential, you would say "keep it on the down low". If you slipped and said "low down" well, your cover was blown, you weren't "down"
and just low.
"Word"! is actually not used by youngsters, it is another expression still fondled by those that were teens 10 years ago and still use it in their late 20's. Fortunately for us oldsters, the word "cool" still means what it did way back when. Of course when we use it, it isn't that cool to kids, as they think we are trying to be cool to fit in with them. Any attempts to arbitrate by explaining how we have been using "cool" for 40 years, has an adverse effect and is regarded as not "cool". A "hot" teenage girl or young woman, may utter any number of nonsense words that do not mean anything close to her intended meaning and it will be accepted and considered "cool" except to those of her peers who are envious of her.
There: Linguistics 101.
There will be a pop quiz sometime. Live in fear.


That post was "outa sight", you must be a real hip cat! Really neat. That blog romps!
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So here is what we know


- Earl is no longer a fish storm.

- Area in the BOC needs to be watched for development and threat to land.

- Gaston should regenerate today and is a long range threat,

- 99L not as likely to develop as before

- Tropical waves are still very strong behind 99L and we could see 2 or 3 more systems over the next week or so out there.
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting Clearwater1:


In sports terminology... the blog is playing baseball... and your playing tennis (or some other sport) :)

j/k
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1235. Vero1
Here we go again!

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Quoting KanKunKid:


Bump is just a word to show that they are refreshing an old post from another page or "bumping it up front"
I have an 18 year old and I get the "skinny" on all the new and old expressions and when they are used. Most of them come from rappers who lack a sufficient vocabulary and make up words to express themselves taking other words and holding them for ransom. Their followers (like sheep) pick up the expressions (yeah, just like back in the 60's man, "be cool") and they become proliferated quickly and pass quickly among the young with no regard to sex or race. After a few years, you can age yourself by the expressions you use just as with the clothes you wear and the kids pick up on it. If you wanted to keep something confidential, you would say "keep it on the down low". If you slipped and said "low down" well, your cover was blown, you weren't "down"
and just low.
"Word"! is actually not used by youngsters, it is another expression still fondled by those that were teens 10 years ago and still use it in their late 20's. Fortunately for us oldsters, the word "cool" still means what it did way back when. Of course when we use it, it isn't that cool to kids, as they think we are trying to be cool to fit in with them. Any attempts to arbitrate by explaining how we have been using "cool" for 40 years, has an adverse effect and is regarded as not "cool". A "hot" teenage girl or young woman, may utter any number of nonsense words that do not mean anything close to her intended meaning and it will be accepted and considered "cool" except to those of her peers who are envious of her.
There: Linguistics 101.
There will be a pop quiz sometime. Live in fear.
Some people also get it from T.V.
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12z NAM FWIW



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1232. ackee
I really dont thein Gaston will redevlop dir air eastern carrb shear alson on increase there
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1231. Vero1
1222. btwntx08 2:51 PM GMT on September 04, 2010

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Quoting Orcasystems:


I am obviously to old... WTF does that mean??
Quoting hydrus:
LOL!!!I have seen that before, I am not really sure what it means either.
It WTF means What the Fudge (sort of)
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1229. IKE
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

EARL HAS MAINTAINED SOME CIRCULAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATING THAT IT IS STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...MOST THE RAIN SHIELD HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE WIND FIELD IS
EXPANDING ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT EARL IS GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO ACQUIRE SOME EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 60 KNOTS...BASED ON
SURROUNDING SURFACE DATA. EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD CONTINUE AS A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE FOR 2 TO 3 DAYS.

EARL HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OF 035 DEGREES AT 30 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL
TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 44.3N 64.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 48.0N 60.7W 50 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 05/1200Z 52.5N 56.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT 06/0000Z 55.5N 53.5W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 06/1200Z 57.0N 54.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 07/1200Z 56.0N 53.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 08/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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1228. Keys99
Courtesy National Weather Service Key West

ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1842...A HURRICANE...
NICKNAMED ANTJE`S HURRICANE AFTER A SCHOONER OF THE SAME NAME THAT
WAS DISMASTED BY THE STORM...MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
THIS HURRICANE DAMAGED SAND KEY LIGHTHOUSE AND NUMEROUS NAVIGATION
BEACONS.
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1227. hydrus
Quoting IKE:
...TROPICAL STORM EARL MADE LANDFALL NEAR WESTERN HEAD NOVA SCOTIA AROUND 10 AM EDT...1400 UTC. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE PROVINCE...
11:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 4
Location: 44.3°N 64.5°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: NE at 36 mph
Min pressure: 962 mb
I would imagine folks to the east of Earl are getting hurricane force winds. They get there share of rough weather up there even when they are not getting whacked with hurricanes.
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Quoting zoomiami:
Too funny - posted at the same time.

I still have teenagers -- it is a rather annoying phrase. along with "crib", "snatch me up", and a few others.

Sounds like I raised heathens.
That's young people for ya.Their trying to be young,and cool.they'll probally understand when they get older.
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1223. Vero1
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1221. scott39
Everyone have a good day.Im going to act like Im working in my shop.
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guess Earl is no longer a fish storm lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting kimoskee:
Please let me have your advice.

I want to but a weather station for home. I'm pretending it's for the kids but it's really for me.

I found one called Oregeon Scientific (model WMR100N). Is it okay or should I keep looking. Remember it's for the kids!!!


AQUAK9 would be able to help you with this
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Quoting tkeith:
has been parodied ad nauseam among clueless suburban whites.

that would be me...
Well I live here in the neighboorhoods of D.C.Laurel street to be exsact, and well um I really didn't know what that word meant until I herd it on the train,and another time on the bus while coming home.
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1217. IKE
...TROPICAL STORM EARL MADE LANDFALL NEAR WESTERN HEAD NOVA SCOTIA AROUND 10 AM EDT...1400 UTC. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE PROVINCE...
11:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 4
Location: 44.3°N 64.5°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: NE at 36 mph
Min pressure: 962 mb
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1110. djboca 1:59 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Do I remember someone blogging the phrase "Batten down the hatches"? Are you serious? And I'm not talking about how this storm changed strength and didn't produce much damage (wind, water or otherwise). Just the phrase and its alarmist warning... how unprofessional and childish.

Stick to facts, just the facts and only the facts. There are plenty of local weather "professionals" out there who's only concern is alarming you enough to get you to watch the 10pm news. We're already coming to your blog. You don't need to stoop that low.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: October 17, 2006 Post

Spanish to English translation
Not long ago, I got to be criticized by many in this blog, just because I said the hurricane season, according to meteorologists themselves, it would be super busy season, because in that comment I stated that there were many people making alarmist and panic to the climate, , today even after seven named storms, I say that according to the forecast of the majority of experts, the season is still a bust

4th September
Named storms 7
Hurricanes 3
Majors 2
USA landfalls 0 (Bonnie Was a joke)

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Winds over 125km/h in cole harbour NS sustained.
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I deleted the video.
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1212. Vero1
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Quoting IKE:
MJO....





could be favorable if models are right.
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1210. will40
Quoting Orcasystems:
BUMP

BUMP to bring up somebody's post typically by posting the word "bump" on a message board Can also stand for Bring Up My Post
bump!

For Flood :)

Far out man, I found the dictionary... Cool :)


yea that is Taz favorite word
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4266
Quoting tkeith:
has been parodied ad nauseam among clueless suburban whites.

that would be me...


I was going to Bold that section... but I decided not to... but I found that part actually hilarious.
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Pick me up, give me a ride, etc.
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Thought I'd stir the conversation pot today. Sorry for confusing everyone. The Herbet box is theory only. You all are smart enough to know that though... LOL
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1206. hydrus
Quoting zoomiami:
Too funny - posted at the same time.

I still have teenagers -- it is a rather annoying phrase. along with "crib", "snatch me up", and a few others.

Sounds like I raised heathens.
I am not even going to inquire about the "snatch me up" phrase.
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Nice circulation though
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1204. IKE
MJO....



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Quoting seflagamma:
at 1079 my page went wacky also..
what happened to make a change at post 1079>?


My post isn't causing any problems for me, and i'm on chrome, well, i'll delete it.
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Please let me have your advice.

I want to but a weather station for home. I'm pretending it's for the kids but it's really for me.

I found one called Oregeon Scientific (model WMR100N). Is it okay or should I keep looking. Remember it's for the kids!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BUMP

BUMP to bring up somebody's post typically by posting the word "bump" on a message board Can also stand for Bring Up My Post
bump!

For Flood :)

Far out man, I found the dictionary... Cool :)
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Too funny - posted at the same time.

I still have teenagers -- it is a rather annoying phrase. along with "crib", "snatch me up", and a few others.

Sounds like I raised heathens.
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1198. tkeith
has been parodied ad nauseam among clueless suburban whites.

that would be me...
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks like if ex-Gaston can ever re-develop it may be a significant threat.



nAnd that's why I haven't stop watching this system.Got to watch out for those pesky G storms.
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1196. scott39
Quoting KanKunKid:


Yeah, my ex had one just before she got rid of me. It wasn't real barky, but it required constant attention, in the morning, it would wake you up by licking in your ear. Hmmmm. Maybe that's why she dumped me and kept the dog?
The other Chihuahua is a State in Mexico where Americans are advised (by the US State department) not to travel through by vehicle or animal because of the excessive violence between those that legally have guns (cops and army) and those that illegally have guns (The locals call them "Narcos". Funny, that's what we used to call undercover narcotics cops..) The Narcos will pretend to be cops and then rob you, steal your car or shoot you or all of the above. (actually REAL cops, corrupt ones will rob you, but they won't shoot you, they just feel the need to supplement their income and of course, they have guns and you don't.) Trying to bring a gun into Mexico is taboo, like trying to bring one on an airplane in the USA. I was arrested and heavily fined (robbed) for having 2 pocket knives in my truck. Machetes are OK though. Pfffft!
Everything here is 3rd world but they are trying to catch up. Just like Canada, everything here is MORE expensive except the food and the Rum and Tequila (which explains a lot! You don't want to drink and drive or get caught with alcohol on your breath. The breathalyzer is the cops nose and if he smells alcohol, even just a little you are going down, your car is forfeit and you will be in jail for a long time). There are no laws that say when you will be tried or even heard. It's when they feel like it apparently.
The good news is: You can have Chinese food, pizza and a six pack of beer delivered to your house! All that for less than 20 bucks! It's not quite a "silver lining" but it's a thread, and you have to enjoy the little things here, because that's all there is.
That's my report from Mexico. Don't be careful and don't be safe!
Man-- Its amazing what you can learn on here. Now I know why those terrible little dogs are called that!
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From the Urban dictionary:

A versatile declaration, originating (more or less) in hip-hop culture.

"Word" has no single meaning, but is used to convey a casual sense of affirmation, acknowledgement, agreement, or to indicate that something has impressed you favorably.
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Quoting RecordSeason:
Can someone ask an Admin to delete post 1078?

No offense to Tropicfreak, but that's the post that is causing the problems due to the youtube issue.


No thats ok. Sorry, will delete, just wanted to point out that frances was offshore 6 years ago on this very day.
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1193. Vero1
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010


THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON IS CENTERED NEAR 15N43W ABOUT 1030 NM
E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W NEAR 9 KT. THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER REMAINS JUST UNDER THE SE PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
LOW REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BUT WITH DRIER
AIR UNDERCUTTING THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 45W-47W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN MOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
EXTENDING FROM 20N20W TO 10N26W WITH A 1008 MB LOW JUST TO THE E
NEAR 16N20W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY E OF A LINE FROM 25N18W TO THE TROPICS NEAR 10N30W.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS TO THE E OF THE WAVE
AXIS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 17N20W TO 14N23W WITH CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N-20N E
OF THE WAVE AXIS TO THE COAST OF MAURITANIA W AFRICA AND WITHIN
180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-14N.

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.