Earl's rain bands move over New England; Gaston regenerating?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:09 PM GMT on September 03, 2010

Share this Blog
1
+

Hurricane Earl has remained roughly constant in intensity over the past six hours, as it heads north-northeast at 20 mph towards New England. The latest center fix from the Hurricane Hunters, at 1:14pm EDT, found the pressure had remained constant since late morning, at 961 mb. Long range radar out of Long Island shows that Earl's outermost spiral bands have already brought as much as one inch of rain to portions of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with lesser amounts on Long Island and in Connecticut.


Figure 1. Afternoon radar image from the Long Island, New York radar.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track. Earl is still expected to pass 20 - 50 miles southeast of Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, at about 2am Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast of wind shear continues to show that shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Saturday. Ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C early Saturday morning, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will probably be a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England, and have 65 mph winds on Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada. I have no substantive changes to make to the impacts likely for New England and Canada that I discussed in this morning's post.


Figure 2. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 3:30pm EDT Friday, September 3, 2010. Note the 15 mph (13 kt) asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 20 mph to the north-northeast at the time. The highest contour had top winds of 65 kt (75 mph) surrounding the "+" on the east side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds on the left (northwest) side were just 52 knots (60 mph.) The asymmetry was greater--about 20 mph--at 6:30 am EDT this morning. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona has changed little this afternoon. Satellite loops continue to show that Fiona is a naked swirl of low clouds with just one diminishing spot of heavy thunderstorms on the southwest side of the circulation. High wind shear from Earl should continue to affect Fiona over the next two days, and will probably destroy the storm on Saturday.


Figure 3. Afternoon satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gaston may be regenerating
Recent satellite imagery continues to show that Gaston's remains are re-organizing. Gaston has a broad surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air lies to the west and north of Gaston's remains, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where the atmosphere is relatively moist, so this shear will be less harmful than usual for development. NHC is giving Gaston a 50% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Sunday; I put these odds higher, at 60%. The GFS, UKMET, and GFDL models develop Gaston and predict it will move though the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. The NOGAPS and HWRF models also develop Gaston, but predict a slower motion, bringing the storm near the northern Lesser Antilles 6 - 7 days from now. Given the steady increase in organization of Gaston's remains today and high degree of model support for regeneration, I expect Gaston will be a tropical storm again, early next week.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verdes Islands, is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear has dropped to 20 - 25 knots, and will decrease to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Saturday through Monday. The system will move over the Cape Verdes Islands over the weekend, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain squalls. NHC is giving the wave a 30% chance of developing by Sunday afternoon. Several models develop 99L into a tropical depression, but head it northwest into a region of very high wind shear that destroys the system by Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Saturday by 1pm.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC (OBXNCWEATHER)
Gas station in Nags Head, NC that fell victim to Hurricane Earl's winds.
Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC
Earl's waves (StormJunkie)
Earl's waves

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1143 - 1093

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29Blog Index

Quoting scott39:
We learn something new everyday. LOL


LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathers4me:
Dry air and moderate shear is the inhibiting factor for Ex Gaston. Agree with the models bringing him to a ts in about 3 days. Another tid bit. Models show him going right through the dreaded Herbet box!! FL may be affected by this one folks.


Hebert Box...pronounced "ay-bear"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1141. tkeith
Quoting aislinnpaps:


It stalled on me. I thought I was the only one.
Yeah me too. My wife put one of those car breathylizers on my computer...I thought I was just "over the limit"

:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
55000 without power in NS now. Winds are getting really strong 120km/hr gusts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1139. scott39
Quoting Floodman:
Quoting KanKunKid:

Rhode Island?




Okay, sorry, but that's kinda funny...when posed in the form iof a question:

What's invisible in the Western Caribbean and casues Rapid Intesification?

Rhode Island...

Man, the rest of us had no idea
We learn something new everyday. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dry air and moderate shear is the inhibiting factor for Ex Gaston. Agree with the models bringing him to a ts in about 3 days. Another tid bit. Models show him going right through the dreaded Herbet box!! FL may be affected by this one folks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DarIvy959810:

This mighty be Igor
Yep!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherman12345:

dry air and southwesterly shear. should be in a better environment in a couple of days


It appears that is what will happen.

Intensity models really go off on this one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KanKunKid:

Rhode Island?


Quoting scott39:
Yea, Its invisible in the Western Carribean and causes Rapid Intensifacation.


Okay, sorry, but that's kinda funny...when posed in the form of a question:

What's invisible in the Western Caribbean and causes Rapid Intensification?

Rhode Island...

Man, the rest of us had no idea
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1132. scott39
Quoting CaribBoy:


But why is Gaston so pathetic right now?
Dry air,Easterly Shear.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kimoskee:
Good morning all
what happened to the blog last night?


It stalled on me. I thought I was the only one.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3115
Quoting extreme236:
Wow 12z LGEM for Gaston brings him up to 130 knots!


But why is Gaston so pathetic right now?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1128. scott39
Quoting weatherman12345:
can florida get hit by this gaston? you all are gonna say its to early but i just want to know the chances. I am going away in around 10 days
Too early to tell.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Are those the NHC wind forecasts next to the long/lat?


Technically yes, but don't believe them. When they do an "unofficial" OFCL they typically only do a track forecast, mainly for input to SHIPS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is it my imagination or is the blog on go-slow?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well i am very thankful that Earl lost much of its power a couple days ago but we probably will lose our power in halifax soon about a hour from now the eye or whatever is left over will pass to the sw of the city and our peak wind gusts will be around 120 possibly 130 kms per hour, already 22,700 customers without power we have over 300,000 people in our city here, so thank u all for your great help with the storm and thx Dr. masters stormw, thank u jesus for sparing us from a stronger storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1123. tkeith
1110

Cheerios taste funny this mornin?

This blog is primarily amateurs and enthusiests (and poor spellers)...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Gaston will eventually move out of the dry air surrounding it. The TUTT will move west out of Ex-Gaston,s way. It is a prediction on my part, but once Gaston,s in the Caribbean or east of 65 degree,s, we will have another surge of activity even surpassing our most recent one.


The models agree.. Gaston is not dead

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning all
what happened to the blog last night?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1120. scott39
Quoting KanKunKid:


Aye Chihuahua! The secret acronyms on the blog are KILLING me!

Blog hanging again?
My girlfriend had a Chihuahua. Hmmm I wonder what ever happened to him? So peaceful now! Ahhhh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1119. hydrus
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Caribbean storm by the looks of it.

Gaston isn't looking so good right now, I suspected this would happen. It is very likely Gaston will have very little convection by the days end with the NHC still holding at 70% followed by a blowup tonight.
Gaston will eventually move out of the dry air surrounding it. The TUTT will move west out of Ex-Gaston,s way. It is a prediction on my part, but once Gaston,s in the Caribbean or east of 65 degree,s, we will have another surge of activity even surpassing our most recent one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1117. hydrus
Quoting extreme236:
Wow 12z LGEM for Gaston brings him up to 130 knots!
Another major hurricane.. This season has been busy and it is only early September.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting djboca:
Do I remember someone blogging the phrase "Batten down the hatches"? Are you serious? And I'm not talking about how this storm changed strength and didn't produce much damage (wind, water or otherwise). Just the phrase and its alarmist warning... how unprofessional and childish.

Stick to facts, just the facts and only the facts. There are plenty of local weather "professionals" out there who's only concern is alarming you enough to get you to watch the 10pm news. We're already coming to your blog. You don't need to stoop that low.


Okay..?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:
99L may or may not develop, but the GFS continues to show a very active wave train, with another vigorous one emerging in around 72 hours or so.

This mighty be Igor
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting vince1966:
So Gaston may be a Gomex storm? Or is everything trending up the east coast?


Caribbean storm by the looks of it.

Gaston isn't looking so good right now, I suspected this would happen. It is very likely Gaston will have very little convection by the days end with the NHC still holding at 70% followed by a blowup tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5998
1110. djboca
Do I remember someone blogging the phrase "Batten down the hatches"? Are you serious? And I'm not talking about how this storm changed strength and didn't produce much damage (wind, water or otherwise). Just the phrase and its alarmist warning... how unprofessional and childish.

Stick to facts, just the facts and only the facts. There are plenty of local weather "professionals" out there who's only concern is alarming you enough to get you to watch the 10pm news. We're already coming to your blog. You don't need to stoop that low.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow 12z LGEM for Gaston brings him up to 130 knots!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So Gaston may be a Gomex storm? Or is everything trending up the east coast?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
99L may or may not develop, but the GFS continues to show a very active wave train, with another vigorous one emerging in around 72 hours or so.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1105. scott39
Quoting KanKunKid:

Rhode Island?
Yea, Its invisible in the Western Carribean and causes Rapid Intensifacation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
oh forgot my manners, did not realize I had not posted yet; was just reading.

Good morning everyone, happy Saturday to you..

I finally get "caught up" on what's going on out there...

Happy Saturday to you all..

I am at work until 7pm, of course, so will be popping in and out as I can.. Saturday is usually very slow day...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting seflagamma:
at 1079 my page went wacky also..
what happened to make a change at post 1079>?
Could be IE, IE is not my primary browser for 5 years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
at 1079 my page went wacky also..
what happened to make a change at post 1079>?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is there such a thing as a "Tropical Hangover"?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning all :) Was nice to wake up to sunshine this morning instead of 80 mph wind gusts, even though the storm was exciting :)

Hope NS fairs as well as NC did... best wishes to friends up there...

x-Gaston is so cute this a.m. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KanKunKid:

Rhode Island?
Rapid intensification. LOL Rhode Island :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1095. h0db
Hurricane Katrina formed as Tropical Depression Twelve over the southeastern Bahamas on August 23, 2005 as the result of an interaction of a tropical wave and the remains of Tropical Depression Ten. It didn't look like much more than convection over a former TD.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, Earl actually looks better than he did yesterday. I hope those people are prepared and stay safe.
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 760

Viewing: 1143 - 1093

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
61 °F
Mostly Cloudy