Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl's rain bands move over New England; Gaston regenerating?

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:09 PM GMT on September 03, 2010

Hurricane Earl has remained roughly constant in intensity over the past six hours, as it heads north-northeast at 20 mph towards New England. The latest center fix from the Hurricane Hunters, at 1:14pm EDT, found the pressure had remained constant since late morning, at 961 mb. Long range radar out of Long Island shows that Earl's outermost spiral bands have already brought as much as one inch of rain to portions of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with lesser amounts on Long Island and in Connecticut.

Figure 1. Afternoon radar image from the Long Island, New York radar.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track. Earl is still expected to pass 20 - 50 miles southeast of Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, at about 2am Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast of wind shear continues to show that shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Saturday. Ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C early Saturday morning, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will probably be a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England, and have 65 mph winds on Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada. I have no substantive changes to make to the impacts likely for New England and Canada that I discussed in this morning's post.

Figure 2. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 3:30pm EDT Friday, September 3, 2010. Note the 15 mph (13 kt) asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 20 mph to the north-northeast at the time. The highest contour had top winds of 65 kt (75 mph) surrounding the "+" on the east side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds on the left (northwest) side were just 52 knots (60 mph.) The asymmetry was greater--about 20 mph--at 6:30 am EDT this morning. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona has changed little this afternoon. Satellite loops continue to show that Fiona is a naked swirl of low clouds with just one diminishing spot of heavy thunderstorms on the southwest side of the circulation. High wind shear from Earl should continue to affect Fiona over the next two days, and will probably destroy the storm on Saturday.

Figure 3. Afternoon satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gaston may be regenerating
Recent satellite imagery continues to show that Gaston's remains are re-organizing. Gaston has a broad surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air lies to the west and north of Gaston's remains, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where the atmosphere is relatively moist, so this shear will be less harmful than usual for development. NHC is giving Gaston a 50% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Sunday; I put these odds higher, at 60%. The GFS, UKMET, and GFDL models develop Gaston and predict it will move though the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. The NOGAPS and HWRF models also develop Gaston, but predict a slower motion, bringing the storm near the northern Lesser Antilles 6 - 7 days from now. Given the steady increase in organization of Gaston's remains today and high degree of model support for regeneration, I expect Gaston will be a tropical storm again, early next week.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verdes Islands, is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear has dropped to 20 - 25 knots, and will decrease to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Saturday through Monday. The system will move over the Cape Verdes Islands over the weekend, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain squalls. NHC is giving the wave a 30% chance of developing by Sunday afternoon. Several models develop 99L into a tropical depression, but head it northwest into a region of very high wind shear that destroys the system by Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Saturday by 1pm.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC (OBXNCWEATHER)

Gas station in Nags Head, NC that fell victim to Hurricane Earl's winds.

Earl's waves (StormJunkie)

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301. Hurricanes101 11:57 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting StormW: Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

302. WhereIsTheStorm 11:57 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting StormW: What's gonna be even scarier, is when folks see what should happen...given a pretty much negative NAO, all the Oceanic heat...and when the ITCZ shifts south climatologically, and remains active because of it. If you don't have anything nice to say..LOL Hurricane season does run until November. I agree, this is why they did not lower there expectations for an active hurricane season early on. I'm not looking forward to it and certainly will not be turning my back on it. Thanks, Storm for your reports will continue to forward as systems develop. Member Since: August 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 403

303. stormwatcherCI 11:58 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:br I see he has picked up speed too. Yesterday he was only moving 5 mph. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8043

304. wunderkidcayman 11:58 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON...WHICH IS LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE ...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5500

305. MiamiHurricanes09 11:58 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

306. Vero1 11:59 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
96 Hrs. Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233

307. all4hurricanes 11:59 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting thewindman: After September 1st it is TOOOO Late for storms to hit the Eastern Seaboard. There is just too many troughs moving in as fall approaches. The Gulf is the only place or maybe southern tip of Florida for any landfall. Anything north of 22 to 25 latitude will get scooped up by the multiple storm systems moving cross country Hazel made it to NC as a cat 4 in October I'm looking nervously at Gaston maybe if we keep watching him he won't boil Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2192

308. stormwatcherCI 11:59 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting wunderkidcayman: quite ture stormwatcherCI don't see any one from north side and the brac one here anyway how was your day My day was okay. We had a heavy shower around 3 am and a few light showers throughout the day. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8043

311. XStormX 12:01 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting StormW: Will gaston be a hurricane when it reaches Guadalpue? Member Since: August 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 171

312. serialteg 12:01 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Hi guys. We iin pr gettin great surf till today for a week. Stay safe b prepared Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1966

313. Neapolitan 12:01 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
It was just a few weeks ago that we were talking about seasons with very high ("hyperactive") ACE that didn't have their second hurricanes until fairly late in the season. 1950 ended with an ACE of 243--one of the highest ever--yet didn't have a second hurricane until 8/20. 1998 and 1999 ended with 182 and 177, respectively, yet didn't form second hurricanes until 8/25 and 8/22. 1961 didn't have a second hurricane until September 3rd--today--yet ended with 205. Now here we are this year with a second hurricane not forming until 8/23. Funny how that works. Some more sobering thoughts: --The Atlantic A.C.E. (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) for 2010 has reached 60, which indicates a 500% increase in just 12 days. --This year's A.C.E. has already exceeded the totals for both that of 1997--the lightest year of the current "active" hurricane period--and last year, 2009. --This year's A.C.E. is already higher than the totals for that of 16 of the past 60 seasons. --Even with the late start, this year's ACE already stands at more than 60% of the 60-year average. All this, and we're still a full week away from the climatological peak of the season...a season that, by all indications, will very likely be extremely long and back-loaded. (And one more boring stat: it took 83 days for this year's ACE to hit 10. Only four days later, it passed 20. The next day, it passed 30, then 40, 50, and 60 each followed at two-day intervals.) Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11169

314. PSLFLCaneVet 12:02 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting StormW: Let's just say...I don't really feel October is going to be a picnic. Agreed, all the energy, stored in the form of heat in the water, is not going away any time soon. Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

315. stormwatcherCI 12:02 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting kmanislander: I just ran the shortwave loop and it looks as if the center of Gaston is on the SE edge of the convection near 15.4 N and 42.5 W That's where I see it too. When someone was saying earlier today it was further north if you looked at the shortwave loop it was just at 15 N. Last coordinates per the Navy site was 41.9W and 14.9N at 1800Z Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8043

316. Vero1 12:03 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010 AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS BETWEEN THE WRN COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 19N18W TO 9N23W. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1006 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 15N19W. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN THE COAST AND 28W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE NRN TIP OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 13W-17W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS W OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 21W-25W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233

317. aislinnpaps 12:03 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
What was the strongest storm the latest in the season? Hope that makes sense. Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2438

318. aislinnpaps 12:03 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
What was the strongest storm the latest in the season? Hope that makes sense. Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2438

319. plywoodstatenative 12:03 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Storm, whats the latest on the tracks for ex Gaston or is truly regenerating? Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147

322. Kristina40 12:06 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Is Gaston still on life support? Is Fiona pining for the loss of Earl? These are the days of wunderblog... Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 681

324. wunderkidcayman 12:07 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
I went fishing last night came back about 2 this morning it was 4 of us that gone out and we caught 26 jacks about 6 grunts and almost pulled in a baracuda we saw the rain and lighting from far out so that it why we came in early then slept for most of the morn and then went shooping came back about 3-4ish and now I am here Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5500

326. ShenValleyFlyFish 12:08 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting KerryInNOLA: I don' know your personal life. But to some "if the shoe fits...." and if it smells like a troll . . . Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

327. WeatherNerdPR 12:08 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan: It was just a few weeks ago that we were talking about seasons with very high ("hyperactive") ACE that didn't have their second hurricanes until fairly late in the season. 1950 ended with an ACE of 243--one of the highest ever--yet didn't have a second hurricane until 8/20. 1998 and 1999 ended with 182 and 177, respectively, yet didn't form second hurricanes until 8/25 and 8/22. 1961 didn't have a second hurricane until September 3rd--today--yet ended with 205. Now here we are this year with a second hurricane not forming until 8/23. Funny how that works. Some more sobering thoughts: --The Atlantic A.C.E. (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) for 2010 has reached 60, which indicates a 500% increase in just 12 days. --This year's A.C.E. has already exceeded the totals for both that of 1997--the lightest year of the current "active" hurricane period--and last year, 2009. --This year's A.C.E. is already higher than the totals for that of 16 of the past 60 seasons. --Even with the late start, this year's ACE already stands at more than 60% of the 60-year average. All this, and we're still a full week away from the climatological peak of the season...a season that, by all indications, will very likely be extremely long and back-loaded. (And one more boring stat: it took 83 days for this year's ACE to hit 10. Only four days later, it passed 20. The next day, it passed 30. then 40, 50, and 60 each followed at two-day intervals.) ACE is exploding. We could be at 100 by October if this keeps up. Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464

329. stormwatcherCI 12:09 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting wunderkidcayman: I went fishing last night came back about 2 this morning it was 4 of us that gone out and we caught 26 jacks about 6 grunts and almost pulled in a baracuda we saw the rain and lighting from far out so that it why we came in early then slept for most of the morn and then went shooping came back about 3-4ish and now I am here Send some of those jacks up here . LOL. A couple nights ago the thunder was LOUD. It shook my house and woke up everyone. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8043

330. Felix2007 12:10 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting aislinnpaps: What was the strongest storm the latest in the season? Hope that makes sense. I don't know if you mean a landfalling storm or not but... Member Since: July 12, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 361

331. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:10 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting WeatherNerdPR: ACE is exploding. We could be at 100 by October if this keeps up. We'll probably be past that. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25347

332. CaicosRetiredSailor 12:10 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting aislinnpaps: What was the strongest storm the latest in the season? Hope that makes sense. 1888 11/17 Not Named (cat 2) 1925 11/29 Not Named (cat 2) Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5137

333. MiamiHurricanes09 12:11 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting WeatherNerdPR: ACE is exploding. We could be at 100 by October if this keeps up. October? We can get to 100 with one LT Cape Verde type hurricane. To give you an idea, Ivan contributed 70 in ACE. We should be by 100 in less than 7-14 days if the African wave train continues to pump out vigorous tropical waves left and right. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

334. WeatherNerdPR 12:12 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting WeatherNerdPR: ACE is exploding. We could be at 100 by October if this keeps up. Did I say October? I meant September 15. 130 by October 5 IMO. Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464

335. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 12:13 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish: and if it smells like a troll . . . its more than likly a troll Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651

336. teammc 12:13 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
I'm sticking with StormW. In 1952 or 1951, Sarasota, fl had a direct hit I think from hurricane Donna. One of the worse storms in florida history and that was in December. Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 106

337. XStormX 12:14 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting StormW: Hard to say exactly tonight. Once he gets better structure, and I can see if the dry air takes a hike...I'll have a better idea. Haven't seen updated shear yet, but as of the last 3 runs, if you based it on wind shear alone, I would say...close. Thanks Storm, it's worth keeping on Eye on!!! ;-) Member Since: August 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 171

339. XStormX 12:15 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI: Send some of those jacks up here . LOL. A couple nights ago the thunder was LOUD. It shook my house and woke up everyone. Are you ready for Earl, hey how's the weather doing over there? Member Since: August 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 171

340. Caymanfishnut 12:15 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting wunderkidcayman: I went fishing last night came back about 2 this morning it was 4 of us that gone out and we caught 26 jacks about 6 grunts and almost pulled in a baracuda we saw the rain and lighting from far out so that it why we came in early then slept for most of the morn and then went shooping came back about 3-4ish and now I am here Hey Wunderkid: that beats working anyday! Apologies - also enjoy your comments. Leave some out there for me ;) Member Since: June 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 18

341. aislinnpaps 12:15 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Thanks Felix and CRS. Mid to late November, or even into December, it appears. Wow. Anyone's guess when this season might be over? Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2438

342. aislinnpaps 12:15 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Thanks Felix and CRS. Mid to late November, or even into December, it appears. Wow. Anyone's guess when this season might be over? Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2438

343. Hurricanes101 12:15 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor: 1888 11/17 Not Named (cat 2) 1925 11/29 Not Named (cat 2) Hurricanes Lenny and Paloma were both CAT 4s Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

344. teammc 12:16 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Good Night StormW. Starting to get deep here. Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 106

345. WeatherNerdPR 12:16 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: We'll probably be past that. Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: October? We can get to 100 with one LT Cape Verde type hurricane. To give you an idea, Ivan contributed 70 in ACE. We should be by 100 in less than 7-14 days if the African wave train continues to pump out vigorous tropical waves left and right. Read comment 334. We'll probably be past that if we cough up a Cat 5. Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464

346. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 12:17 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 144 Comments: 40651

347. spathy 12:17 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting teammc: I'm sticking with StormW. In 1952 or 1951, Sarasota, fl had a direct hit I think from hurricane Donna. One of the worse storms in florida history and that was in December. That would be Bonita Springs with Donna. But still a bad storm. Strong enough to nearly completely drain the Caloosahatchee. Member Since: June 8, 2008 Posts: 65 Comments: 10490

351. stormwatcherCI 12:18 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting XStormX: Are you ready for Earl, hey how's the weather doing over there? I know you meant Gaston and I guess I am as ready as I will ever be. Just would have to board up and get gas for generator if necessary. We have been having strong thunderstorms off and on for a few days and it is HOT. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8043

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