Earl's rain bands move over New England; Gaston regenerating?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:09 PM GMT on September 03, 2010

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Hurricane Earl has remained roughly constant in intensity over the past six hours, as it heads north-northeast at 20 mph towards New England. The latest center fix from the Hurricane Hunters, at 1:14pm EDT, found the pressure had remained constant since late morning, at 961 mb. Long range radar out of Long Island shows that Earl's outermost spiral bands have already brought as much as one inch of rain to portions of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with lesser amounts on Long Island and in Connecticut.


Figure 1. Afternoon radar image from the Long Island, New York radar.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track. Earl is still expected to pass 20 - 50 miles southeast of Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, at about 2am Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast of wind shear continues to show that shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Saturday. Ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C early Saturday morning, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will probably be a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England, and have 65 mph winds on Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada. I have no substantive changes to make to the impacts likely for New England and Canada that I discussed in this morning's post.


Figure 2. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 3:30pm EDT Friday, September 3, 2010. Note the 15 mph (13 kt) asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 20 mph to the north-northeast at the time. The highest contour had top winds of 65 kt (75 mph) surrounding the "+" on the east side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds on the left (northwest) side were just 52 knots (60 mph.) The asymmetry was greater--about 20 mph--at 6:30 am EDT this morning. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona has changed little this afternoon. Satellite loops continue to show that Fiona is a naked swirl of low clouds with just one diminishing spot of heavy thunderstorms on the southwest side of the circulation. High wind shear from Earl should continue to affect Fiona over the next two days, and will probably destroy the storm on Saturday.


Figure 3. Afternoon satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gaston may be regenerating
Recent satellite imagery continues to show that Gaston's remains are re-organizing. Gaston has a broad surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air lies to the west and north of Gaston's remains, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where the atmosphere is relatively moist, so this shear will be less harmful than usual for development. NHC is giving Gaston a 50% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Sunday; I put these odds higher, at 60%. The GFS, UKMET, and GFDL models develop Gaston and predict it will move though the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. The NOGAPS and HWRF models also develop Gaston, but predict a slower motion, bringing the storm near the northern Lesser Antilles 6 - 7 days from now. Given the steady increase in organization of Gaston's remains today and high degree of model support for regeneration, I expect Gaston will be a tropical storm again, early next week.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verdes Islands, is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear has dropped to 20 - 25 knots, and will decrease to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Saturday through Monday. The system will move over the Cape Verdes Islands over the weekend, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain squalls. NHC is giving the wave a 30% chance of developing by Sunday afternoon. Several models develop 99L into a tropical depression, but head it northwest into a region of very high wind shear that destroys the system by Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Saturday by 1pm.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC (OBXNCWEATHER)
Gas station in Nags Head, NC that fell victim to Hurricane Earl's winds.
Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC
Earl's waves (StormJunkie)
Earl's waves

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Gaston still has a well defined LLC and though sheared, from E , the center is not as far exposed as even Danielle or Earl at some point.Gaston imo has high chance to become a TD/TS again and probably a major hurricane once it enter the Caribbean, jmo.
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1091. tkeith
My page is whacked on all the posts after Tropicfreak's embedded video. It's normal above it.

Must be my ancient I.E. issues again...
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1090. scott39
Ike do you think the Gulf Coast will possibly be threatened by a "home brew" or CV TC this season?
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I guess it is the lack of action in the tropics (for today) and its a holiday weekend. Go out and have some fun and get some sun!! lol
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Earl made landfall.
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1086. tkeith
Quoting IKE:


I agree.

Blog is in snooze mode today.


...zzzzzzzzzzzz
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1084. will40
snooze mode last night it was down for about 4 hrs
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1083. IKE
Quoting kmanislander:


Take a look at this buoy. Gaston is due N of it right now and the wind has swung right around to the West. All he needs is persistent deep convection to get reclassified.



I agree.

Blog is in snooze mode today.
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whats keeping Gaston from his name?
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2373
Quoting IKE:


I thought that was the winds but wanted to be sure.

What you posted above may be true...."Gaston essentially has until 63W to organize. If not, history shows that he is unlikely to do so until after 75W."


Take a look at this buoy. Gaston is due N of it right now and the wind has swung right around to the West. All he needs is persistent deep convection to get reclassified.

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1080. scott39
I hope Gaston isnt one of those who stays weak, and then trecks across the Atlantic and blows up in the Carribean or GOM. Fredric did that back in 1979 and came over the Western tip of Cuba as a depression. He then blew up to a Cat 4 in the GOM and landed as a strong Cat 3 in southern Al on September 13th. This is just an observation of a past Hurricane and not to be taken as a track for Gaston. Hopefully he will go away peacefully.
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6 years ago on this very day, hurricane frances was just offshore the florida coast, near w palm beach. It would make landfall the following morning.
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1077. IKE


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Severe weather in Victoria and South Australia.
986hPa Low off Victoria.
Southern NSW is on weather alert.
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1075. IKE
Quoting kmanislander:


Apparently they don't believe he will come to much by the time he enters the Caribbean.


I thought that was the winds but wanted to be sure.

What you posted above may be true...."Gaston essentially has until 63W to organize. If not, history shows that he is unlikely to do so until after 75W."
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On this very saturday 6 years ago, folks in FL were bracing for hurricane frances which was just offshore
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Quoting ElConando:
I'm out and GO NOLES!


FSU!FSU!FSU!FSU!
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I will check back later. Not much to look at for the time being.
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Quoting IKE:


Are those the NHC wind forecasts next to the long/lat?


Apparently they don't believe he will come to much by the time he enters the Caribbean.
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I'm out and GO NOLES!
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Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Some sort of stationary frontal boundary in the Bay of Campeche is showing signs of persistent convection and will need to be monitored for development as it moves slowly northward over time. Right now there is a real lack of any organized 850mb vorticity and this likely do to the fact that the TD 10E in the Pacific ocean is falling apart as this vorticity axis is lied across Mexico. Once this low moves more northward with time development will become more probable. Wind shear is a light 5-10 knots with a developing upper level anticyclone over the region, so environmental conditions are favorable for intensification. Will continue to monitor the systems progress as the NHC has highlighted this system with a 20% percent chance. This seems reasonable.


Could be getting some unexpected home brew.
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Quoting RecordSeason:
1058:

At the present insane speed of 20 to 22mph, Gaston should reach 50W sometime around 0315UTC.


Gaston essentially has until 63W to organize. If not, history shows that he is unlikely to do so until after 75W. He is being driven by strong trades right now and I haven't had time to look at the forecast wind speeds during the next 24 hours.
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1066. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NHC track on Gaston


AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 0 154N 440W 30
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 12 158N 459W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 24 159N 480W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 36 161N 506W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 48 160N 533W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 72 155N 585W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 96 160N 625W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 120 173N 662W 25


Are those the NHC wind forecasts next to the long/lat?
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1065. tkeith
Still, this area of the Atlantic has been known for being inhospitable this year and as I said yesterday I do not expect Gaston to redevelop until he reaches the zone between 50 and 55 W.

If he stays together moving at present speed...he's gonna get there pretty quick.
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1063. scott39
Thanks, StormW
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Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL STORM EARL AND FRIENDS SYNOPSIS SEP. 04, 2010 ISSUED 9:05 A.M.

tropical Storm Earl and friends...lol Thanks for the update Storm....and the warning on recurvatures! Have a great weekend!
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Thanks Storm! What a treat...get up, get coffee and there's your analysis. Have a
great weekend..
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Some sort of stationary frontal boundary in the Bay of Campeche is showing signs of persistent convection and will need to be monitored for development as it moves slowly northward over time. Right now there is a real lack of any organized 850mb vorticity and this likely do to the fact that the TD 10E in the Pacific ocean is falling apart as this vorticity axis is lied across Mexico. Once this low moves more northward with time development will become more probable. Wind shear is a light 5-10 knots with a developing upper level anticyclone over the region, so environmental conditions are favorable for intensification. Will continue to monitor the systems progress as the NHC has highlighted this system with a 20% percent chance. This seems reasonable.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3947
1059. scott39
Quoting DestinJeff:
Gaston better hurry and find his name-tag, or else we'll be left with no names on the map ... and we all know what next week is, right?
A chart comes to mind.
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Good morning

Gaston has become a shrinking violet this morning and is diminishing in both size and convection at a rather rapid rate. It seems that a combination of dry air, a fast forward motion and perhaps a little Easterly shear is taking a toll on his structure. All of this coming during the heat of the day as well.

The NHC will likely lower his chances of becoming a tropical cyclone at the next update and TD status today now seems unlikely as well.

Still, this area of the Atlantic has been known for being inhospitable this year and as I said yesterday I do not expect Gaston to redevelop until he reaches the zone between 50 and 55 W.

Another watch and wait day today.
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Quoting stribe37:
The Canadian Hurricane Centre is still calling Earl a hurricane, interestingly enough. Apparently they sent out a plane this AM into the eyewall and found winds at hurricane strength (they were explaining this on The Weather Network - Canada's equivalent of TWC), so the CHC is differing from the NHC on this.


Link

Excerpt:

As for the subject of Miami forecasting 60 knots and Halifax
forecasting 65 knots for the storm, we maintain the slightly
Stronger winds based on the abnormally hot and humid airmass over
The Maritimes which will allow Earl to hold onto its tropical
character. As well, water temperatures over which the highest
Winds of the storm will travel are running 2 to 4 degrees
Above normal. The buffering effect of the usually cooler
Waters will be less with this storm. Thus, gusty winds,
Possibly hurricane force, could overspread Nova Scotia with
The wind flow off the water from the south.
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Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning, I asked about the Sal when it was N of the Islands yesterday, and was told it should move W or SW. Now I read that there is Easterly shear. Im going with the Euro keeping Low(Gaston} weak and going W for possible developement in the Western Carribean.

there is a lot of "energy" in the W Carib, If Gaston makes it there, I would be very worried about R.I
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1052. raggpr
On the visible sat if you zoom it closer you can see that Gaston is developing new convection near 47w 17N and 46w 16w. Maybe on the new frames to come we will see new convection growing there. He is far from over.
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NHC track on Gaston


AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 0 154N 440W 30
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 12 158N 459W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 24 159N 480W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 36 161N 506W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 48 160N 533W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 72 155N 585W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 96 160N 625W 25
AL 09 2010090406 03 OFCL 120 173N 662W 25
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1049. scott39
Goodmorning, I asked about the Sal when it was N of the Islands yesterday, and was told it should move W or SW. Now I read that there is Easterly shear. Im going with the Euro keeping Low(Gaston} weak and going W for possible developement in the Western Carribean.
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1048. aquak9
good morning bre♥, and I think you are right. I can't speak for state or nat'l laws.

yes, animals gotta have proof of shot record. I do not know about larger animals. Of course a shelter is a last resort. We do not encourage folks to use a shelter. But, we are here if needed.
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I'm sorry right now its to wet outside for the dam camera to work to get good enough photos, i will have to wait until the eyewall feature or whatever that is passes halifax.sorry u guys, the waves are actually quite large along the harbour were either close to high tide or on the downward trend for the tide.
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Both Danielle and Earl became exposed in the same general area lol. The next day they became canes.
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The Canadian Hurricane Centre is still calling Earl a hurricane, interestingly enough. Apparently they sent out a plane this AM into the eyewall and found winds at hurricane strength (they were explaining this on The Weather Network - Canada's equivalent of TWC), so the CHC is differing from the NHC on this.
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Can someone tell me if the forward motion of the storm is factored into the wind speed in forecasts?

From Environment Canada:
Earl is moving towards the north-northeastward at 25 knots... 46 Km/h. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 65 knots... 120 Km/h and central pressure at 965 MB.
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Gaston seems a lot further north than when he started unless he moves due west I don't think he,ll enter the Caribbean
Member Since: March 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2373

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.