Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl's rain bands move over New England; Gaston regenerating?

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:09 PM GMT on September 03, 2010

Hurricane Earl has remained roughly constant in intensity over the past six hours, as it heads north-northeast at 20 mph towards New England. The latest center fix from the Hurricane Hunters, at 1:14pm EDT, found the pressure had remained constant since late morning, at 961 mb. Long range radar out of Long Island shows that Earl's outermost spiral bands have already brought as much as one inch of rain to portions of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with lesser amounts on Long Island and in Connecticut.

Figure 1. Afternoon radar image from the Long Island, New York radar.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track. Earl is still expected to pass 20 - 50 miles southeast of Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, at about 2am Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast of wind shear continues to show that shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Saturday. Ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C early Saturday morning, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will probably be a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England, and have 65 mph winds on Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada. I have no substantive changes to make to the impacts likely for New England and Canada that I discussed in this morning's post.

Figure 2. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 3:30pm EDT Friday, September 3, 2010. Note the 15 mph (13 kt) asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 20 mph to the north-northeast at the time. The highest contour had top winds of 65 kt (75 mph) surrounding the "+" on the east side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds on the left (northwest) side were just 52 knots (60 mph.) The asymmetry was greater--about 20 mph--at 6:30 am EDT this morning. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona has changed little this afternoon. Satellite loops continue to show that Fiona is a naked swirl of low clouds with just one diminishing spot of heavy thunderstorms on the southwest side of the circulation. High wind shear from Earl should continue to affect Fiona over the next two days, and will probably destroy the storm on Saturday.

Figure 3. Afternoon satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gaston may be regenerating
Recent satellite imagery continues to show that Gaston's remains are re-organizing. Gaston has a broad surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air lies to the west and north of Gaston's remains, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where the atmosphere is relatively moist, so this shear will be less harmful than usual for development. NHC is giving Gaston a 50% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Sunday; I put these odds higher, at 60%. The GFS, UKMET, and GFDL models develop Gaston and predict it will move though the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. The NOGAPS and HWRF models also develop Gaston, but predict a slower motion, bringing the storm near the northern Lesser Antilles 6 - 7 days from now. Given the steady increase in organization of Gaston's remains today and high degree of model support for regeneration, I expect Gaston will be a tropical storm again, early next week.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verdes Islands, is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear has dropped to 20 - 25 knots, and will decrease to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Saturday through Monday. The system will move over the Cape Verdes Islands over the weekend, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain squalls. NHC is giving the wave a 30% chance of developing by Sunday afternoon. Several models develop 99L into a tropical depression, but head it northwest into a region of very high wind shear that destroys the system by Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Saturday by 1pm.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC (OBXNCWEATHER)

Gas station in Nags Head, NC that fell victim to Hurricane Earl's winds.

Earl's waves (StormJunkie)

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402. stormwatcherCI 12:43 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting StormW: Anyone notice anything about 99L? Can't wait until it gets further west to see if that south portion is gonna be the dominate circulation LINK Looks like a very good circulation. Could this possibly develop and track more to the west ? Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

403. CybrTeddy 12:44 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Watch TD-11E closely, its remnants could regenerate/ develop in the Gulf of Mexico, some of the global models are hinting at this possibility. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20262

404. TheDawnAwakening 12:44 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Yeah, it looks to be further south area of convection, near 10n. Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 215 Comments: 3159

407. Hurricanes101 12:45 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting StormW: Just wondering if that's where the center is going to take shape. Not goo if it does...being at around 7N. maybe it consolidates in the middle Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

408. TheDawnAwakening 12:45 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
stormwatcherCT, I don't think it will develop and move west, more so develop and move more WNW or NW. Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 215 Comments: 3159

409. stormwatcherCI 12:45 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting StormW: Just wondering if that's where the center is going to take shape. Not goo if it does...being at around 7N. Now you are bringing back memories of Ivan. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

410. XStormX 12:46 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI: Looks like a very good circulation. Could this possibly develop and track more to the west ? i wondered about that, if Gaston is being forced west because of a ridge to it's north, why would this head almost straight west? Member Since: August 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 171

411. Kristina40 12:46 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting StormW: Thank you for the kind compliment, Kristina. You're most welcome Storm. You do a great job for no pay and I appreciate it greatly. Calming down the panicky masses isn't a job for the weak of heart. I'm new here, but I'm so happy I found this place! Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 681

412. XStormX 12:47 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting TheDawnAwakening: stormwatcherCT, I don't think it will develop and move west, more so develop and move more WNW or NW. It's early my friend, at that latitude, if it is @ 7n, they usually don't go north. Member Since: August 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 171

414. Bonz 12:48 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
"I see someone really woke up Africa." Oy. It didn't look that "busy" yesterday. This is going to be a loooonnng season. I figure we're going to have 2 solid months of blob watching. I hope to heck S. Florida doesn't get a Wilma (or worse) type storm in October like 2005. Oh well, at least our generator is repaired and I badgered....er persuaded the husband to buy a good lock so it doesn't get swiped if we have to use it. Member Since: September 11, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 132

415. gordydunnot 12:48 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
The biggest loser from Earl is going to be Home Depot with all the returns. Wouldn't want to be a return clerk there. Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

416. victoria780 12:48 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy: Watch TD-11E closely, its remnants could regenerate/ develop in the Gulf of Mexico, some of the global models are hinting at this possibility. Pretty good circulation from this area.They are already talking about heavy rain in So.Texas wed. Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 270

417. Chicklit 12:49 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Hi y'all Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

418. XStormX 12:49 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting weatherman12345: isnt 1.5 a TD it sure is Member Since: August 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 171

419. stormwatcherCI 12:49 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting TheDawnAwakening: stormwatcherCT, I don't think it will develop and move west, more so develop and move more WNW or NW. I am speaking about the southern part of 99L. BTW, CI (Cayman Islands) not CT (Connecticut)LOL Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

421. TheDawnAwakening 12:49 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Heavy rains now, light winds, and Earl looks to be coming more northward then NEward. Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 215 Comments: 3159

423. Kristina40 12:50 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting Bonz: "I see someone really woke up Africa." Oy. It didn't look that "busy" yesterday. This is going to be a loooonnng season. I figure we're going to have 2 solid months of blob watching. I hope to heck S. Florida doesn't get a Wilma (or worse) type storm in October like 2005. Oh well, at least our generator is repaired and I badgered....er persuaded the husband to buy a good lock so it doesn't get swiped if we have to use it. I've found an operational generator is a hurricane deterrent. I bought a nice one the year moved down here to Panama City (2005) and it is still in it's plastic wrap. I've not even lost my power for more than 4 hours since we bought it. Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 681

424. Chicklit 12:50 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Is this 'too much information?' Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

425. ShenValleyFlyFish 12:51 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Major hurricane direct hits on the mainland U.S. coastline and for individual states 1851-2004 by month. Louisiana Jun:2 Jly:0 Aug:6 Sep:7 Oct:3 Ttl:18 Source: NHC Archives Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

427. stormwatcherCI 12:51 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting Chicklit: Hi y'all The east coast looks to be getting some pretty rough weather since he is not really that far off at this point. Good thing he weakened a great deal. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

428. InTheCone 12:52 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Looks like the northern islands are going to need to keep a keen eye on Gaston, hope he doesn't get to strong.... Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979

429. Kristina40 12:52 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Is it juvenile of me to giggle everytime the weatherdude on TWC says "Nantucket"...Hehe Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 681

430. XStormX 12:52 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
it looks like the dry air is moving out of Gaston's way!! Link I think storm just caught what's going to be one of the most devastating Hurricanes of the season!! Mark MY WORDS Member Since: August 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 171

431. weathermancer 12:52 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Models nudged slightly "east" landfall for Hurr. Earl. (again) Models also slowly getting irrelevant, as now is the time to experience the awesome power of a 'cane. Time to go out into the storm. Member Since: August 29, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 481

432. stormwatcherCI 12:52 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting StormW: I remember him. Passed us pretty far but we had some serious damage on the western end of the island. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

434. TheDawnAwakening 12:53 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
My bad, stormwatcherCI. Haha, the Ts and Is look a lot alike on the blog. Most focused on Earl right now. Yes, especially if the southern portion of the wave becomes most dominant, which already looks like it will. Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 215 Comments: 3159

435. Kristina40 12:53 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Storm, do you remember what Hurricane or TS hit Massachusetts in the early eighties or late 70's? Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 681

437. Chicklit 12:53 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Yeah, CI. Won't be much more than rough surf and some wind this weekend. Looking east, however...we know there is more in the works. I don't like Gaston. Never have. Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

438. WeatherNerdPR 12:53 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting weatherman12345: definetly building some cold cloudtops this evening Wow! What a difference 24 hours can make! Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464

439. stormwatcherCI 12:54 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting TheDawnAwakening: My bad, stormwatcherCI. Haha, the Ts and Is look a lot alike on the blog. Most focused on Earl right now. Yes, especially if the southern portion of the wave becomes most dominant, which already looks like it will. Agreed. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

440. MiamiHurricanes09 12:54 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting weatherman12345: isnt 1.5 a TD It could be. That calculates to 30mph system. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

441. Bonz 12:55 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting Kristina40: I've found an operational generator is a hurricane deterrent. I bought a nice one the year moved down here to Panama City (2005) and it is still in it's plastic wrap. I've not even lost my power for more than 4 hours since we bought it. We bought ours after Wilma. My husband is slow to prep but I learned to just keep after him. We're pretty well stocked up and prepped. First it took a few years to get him to bite for hurricane shutters. We got them just before the storms of 2004. Then the generator. After being in a few hurricanes, he's on board with prepping for them now. :) Member Since: September 11, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 132

442. CybrTeddy 12:55 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
NHC usually doesn't upgrade a system to a TD unless the average is 2.0 although 1.5 is acceptable especially if the system is close to land. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20262

443. XStormX 12:55 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting StormW: Yeah, but if folks are smart, they'd hang onto what they bought. you rock Storm, i think the government needs to fire everyone in the NHC ,and just leave you!! Member Since: August 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 171

446. 757weather 12:56 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI: The east coast looks to be getting some pretty rough weather since he is not really that far off at this point. Good thing he weakened a great deal. I doubt Nantucket will even see ts conditions based on buoy obs. and firsthand experience with the storm this morning. Not sure why theres still a hurricane warning Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 43

448. stormwatcherCI 12:56 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting Chicklit: Yeah, CI. Won't be much more than rough surf and some wind this weekend. Looking east, however...we know there is more in the works. I don't like Gaston. Never have. I have a nasty "gut" feeling about him. If he tracks through the Caribbean he would reach us about the same date as Ivan in 2004. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

449. TheDawnAwakening 12:56 AM GMT on September 04, 2010
Chicklit, What do you mean? Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 215 Comments: 3159

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