Earl's rain bands move over New England; Gaston regenerating?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:09 PM GMT on September 03, 2010

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Hurricane Earl has remained roughly constant in intensity over the past six hours, as it heads north-northeast at 20 mph towards New England. The latest center fix from the Hurricane Hunters, at 1:14pm EDT, found the pressure had remained constant since late morning, at 961 mb. Long range radar out of Long Island shows that Earl's outermost spiral bands have already brought as much as one inch of rain to portions of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with lesser amounts on Long Island and in Connecticut.


Figure 1. Afternoon radar image from the Long Island, New York radar.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track. Earl is still expected to pass 20 - 50 miles southeast of Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, at about 2am Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast of wind shear continues to show that shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Saturday. Ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C early Saturday morning, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will probably be a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England, and have 65 mph winds on Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada. I have no substantive changes to make to the impacts likely for New England and Canada that I discussed in this morning's post.


Figure 2. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 3:30pm EDT Friday, September 3, 2010. Note the 15 mph (13 kt) asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 20 mph to the north-northeast at the time. The highest contour had top winds of 65 kt (75 mph) surrounding the "+" on the east side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds on the left (northwest) side were just 52 knots (60 mph.) The asymmetry was greater--about 20 mph--at 6:30 am EDT this morning. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona has changed little this afternoon. Satellite loops continue to show that Fiona is a naked swirl of low clouds with just one diminishing spot of heavy thunderstorms on the southwest side of the circulation. High wind shear from Earl should continue to affect Fiona over the next two days, and will probably destroy the storm on Saturday.


Figure 3. Afternoon satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gaston may be regenerating
Recent satellite imagery continues to show that Gaston's remains are re-organizing. Gaston has a broad surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air lies to the west and north of Gaston's remains, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where the atmosphere is relatively moist, so this shear will be less harmful than usual for development. NHC is giving Gaston a 50% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Sunday; I put these odds higher, at 60%. The GFS, UKMET, and GFDL models develop Gaston and predict it will move though the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. The NOGAPS and HWRF models also develop Gaston, but predict a slower motion, bringing the storm near the northern Lesser Antilles 6 - 7 days from now. Given the steady increase in organization of Gaston's remains today and high degree of model support for regeneration, I expect Gaston will be a tropical storm again, early next week.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verdes Islands, is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear has dropped to 20 - 25 knots, and will decrease to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Saturday through Monday. The system will move over the Cape Verdes Islands over the weekend, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain squalls. NHC is giving the wave a 30% chance of developing by Sunday afternoon. Several models develop 99L into a tropical depression, but head it northwest into a region of very high wind shear that destroys the system by Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Saturday by 1pm.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC (OBXNCWEATHER)
Gas station in Nags Head, NC that fell victim to Hurricane Earl's winds.
Hurricane Earl on the Outer Banks NC
Earl's waves (StormJunkie)
Earl's waves

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Gaston seems a lot further north than when he started unless he moves due west I don't think he,ll enter the Caribbean
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1042. tkeith
Quoting RecordSeason:
Is it just me, or is Gaston moving much faster than he was yesterday?

Depending on exact center fix, I estimate he is moving around 20mph average over the last 8 hours.
He's got a good tail wind...
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1040. breald
Quoting aquak9:
AIM- that really is me in the avatar

The Special Needs shelters, that RedCross sets up, are usually also the animal shelters. I know they are, in our area. They bring in more generators for folks who have special medical needs, and they are bigger for folks with animals in carriers. I prefer working the special needs shelters. But that's just me.

Animals in disasters, yeah a good field of study. But ya gotta have more love and patience than a regular disaster worker...I think you already qualify. :)


If I am not mistaken after Katrina the Federal Government passed a law stating that hurricane prone areas has to have at least one shelter for people with animals. You have to register them with the county prior to taking them to the shelter and they must be up to date on shots and crated.
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Quoting tkeith:
What wind speeds you gettin there now?


In Halifax it's supposed to be worst at 11-12, and we are the true NE quadrant. I have no tools to measure wind speed so I have to go by the weather stations.

They are saying 55km/hr gusting to 84km/hr
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1038. aquak9
AIM- that really is me in the avatar

The Special Needs shelters, that RedCross sets up, are usually also the animal shelters. I know they are, in our area. They bring in more generators for folks who have special medical needs, and they are bigger for folks with animals in carriers. I prefer working the special needs shelters. But that's just me.

Animals in disasters, yeah a good field of study. But ya gotta have more love and patience than a regular disaster worker...I think you already qualify. :)
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1037. tkeith
Quoting rarepearldesign:
Here is NS, it's just starting to ramp up

Nova Scotia power states "Current total as of 9:42 AM, Sep.04, 2010 - 22755 customers are without power"
What wind speeds you gettin there now?
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1036. Relix
Gaston is having slight troubles at the moment. All the other systems struggled here. Let's see what Gaston does.
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shear shield up
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11395
Here is NS, it's just starting to ramp up

Nova Scotia power states "Current total as of 9:42 AM, Sep.04, 2010 - 22755 customers are without power"
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Quoting Chicklit:

like an itty bitty baby...


haha I was thinking the same like a fetus just a few weeks old..lol
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1032. tkeith
Quoting Cotillion:


Not yet, the TD would replace the LO in that case. Model output also still states Disturbance as opposed to Tropical Cyclone (which is given to a system with at least TD classification).
got it...ty
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Quoting Cotillion:


I wouldn't use the 1950-2009 average. It is going to be on the low side of things, so it's hardly proving any point. Only El Nino seasons have come close to that climatology, let alone way below it. Even the seasons that would have the climate similar to this with La Nina/AMO before '95 - roughly 50-65 - had some of the storms not counted due to limited technology.

The average from 95-09 has been 14-8-4. I have little doubt that this season will meet/surpass that, considering we're about halfway already with September and October to go, at least.


Well, perhaps you wouldn't; I would. In the grand scheme of things, long-term averages are vastly more useful than short-term averages. For instance, the average ACE for the years 2004/2005 was 236.5...which would make for a very lopsided comparison, wouldn't you agree? In statistics, the larger the sample, the more accurate the results.

Having said that, my point was that those calling "bust" as recently as two weeks ago were wrong. Laughably, ludicrously wrong...
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Quoting tkeith:
NHC upgrade to TD on Gaston?


Not yet, the TD would replace the LO in that case. Model output also still states Disturbance as opposed to Tropical Cyclone (which is given to a system with at least TD classification).
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Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Dry air, too much of it for any period of more then slow strengthening in the next 3 days.


Correct
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24512
Quoting Chicklit:

Yeah, somebody said that the SAL was to move SW (ie out of the way)...


Thank you, to good to be true jajajajaj
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1026. IKE
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
IKE, the LLC is there. Becoming somewhat exposed.


That's what I see too.

That water vapor frame Chicklit posted..a lot of dry air around it.

The somewhat hated models have backed off on much development with Gaston(CMC, ECMWF, GFS and NOGAPS).

Maybe he'll come back...flip a coin.
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1025. tkeith
Quoting Cotillion:
AL, 09, 2010090412, , BEST, 0, 163N, 456W, 30, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GASTON, S,

AL, 07, 2010090412, , BEST, 0, 430N, 657W, 60, 965, TS, 50, NEQ, 100, 120, 100, 80, 1003, 220, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EARL, D,

No change.
NHC upgrade to TD on Gaston?
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1024. tkeith
Quoting CaribBoy:
Gaston is tiny
The Carribean has big supply of TC steroids...It will be good if he dont get that far.
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AL, 09, 2010090412, , BEST, 0, 163N, 456W, 30, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GASTON, S,

AL, 07, 2010090412, , BEST, 0, 430N, 657W, 60, 965, TS, 50, NEQ, 100, 120, 100, 80, 1003, 220, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EARL, D,

No change.
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Quoting CaribBoy:
Gaston is tiny

like an itty bitty baby...
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11395
IKE, the LLC is there. Becoming somewhat exposed.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
Gaston is tiny
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Quoting Eugeniopr:



Any other related comments in relation to the shield?

Yeah, somebody said that the SAL was to move SW (ie out of the way)...
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11395
Southern portion of 99L is becoming the dominant low pressure center. You can see spin on satellite imagery.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
Quoting aquak9:
AIM- if I could work at PetCo, I'd be there! unfort my financial situation demands a sixty-hour week right now. But OH, that's be a fun job. I say, go love on the fur-kids.

Re-up as a Disaster Reservist, too. It's not always the weather, y'know. I'm always RedCross Ready, but I'm not sitting around waiting on them to call me.

Still love the curls, the smile- good to see who you really are.

Yeah, I figured it was time to come out from behind the fur-kids since I finally figured out how to change avatars (kind of). How 'bout YOU dear lady, lol?
What you say makes a ton of sense. I think I'd get lots of brownie points taking Red Cross (human) and Animals in Disaster classes. Thanks.
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1016. IKE
Speed it up and look around 16N and 46W...Link
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Dry air, too much of it for any period of more then slow strengthening in the next 3 days.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
Quoting Chicklit:
Glad to see New England spared. Hope you all enjoy the long weekend.

Gaston is chugging along this a.m.
IR Loop

May run out of dry real estate only to find a big blob of SAL shielding the Caribbean.



morning wxlogic



Any other related comments in relation to the shield?
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1013. tkeith
Quoting palmasdelrio:


That's a great way to put it. I'll be on the lookout. Since I'm in PR, I don't want him to surprise me if he decides to head my way.
I would definatly keep an eye out. PR seem to be where the last few have tried to go, and were redirected. I hope yalls luck holds out for those that follow.
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Quoting Cotillion:


I wouldn't use the 1950-2009 average. It is going to be on the low side of things, so it's hardly proving any point. Only El Nino seasons have come close to that climatology, let alone way below it. Even the seasons that would have the climate similar to this with La Nina/AMO+ before '95 - roughly 50-65 - had some of the storms not counted due to limited technology.

The average from 95-09 has been 14-8-4. I have little doubt that this season will meet/surpass that, considering we're about halfway already with September and October to go, at least.


Exactly. It may not turn out to be anything as severe as 2005...but something like 2004 or 2008 is still likely, possibly even more active if this burst of activity in the tropics continues until' the end of the season.
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Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11395
1010. aquak9
cotillion- good post

Pottery- "lawnmower comin'"
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1009. IKE
Latest IR....on Gaston....floater loop of him...Link

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1008. aquak9
AIM- if I could work at PetCo, I'd be there! unfort my financial situation demands a sixty-hour week right now. But OH, that's be a fun job. I say, go love on the fur-kids.

Re-up as a Disaster Reservist, too. It's not always the weather, y'know. I'm always RedCross Ready, but I'm not sitting around waiting on them to call me.

Still love the curls, the smile- good to see who you really are.
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Any additional opinion on post 954. Is this a real shield?
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1006. pottery
Good Morning....
A Glorious dawn here. Gaston is looking for moisture and is dragging it up from around here. It's the only moisture available, what with dry air to his west and north.
Gaston also looks to be bumping to the north-west, and in spite of the forecasts I think he will end up just north of the Leewards.

Have to go and perform a Major Task with a lawnmower.
Will be back if I survive....
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Quoting tkeith:
Gaston has had sort of an identity crisis since he came on the scene...

I dont think he knows what he wants to be when he grows up...yet:)


That's a great way to put it. I'll be on the lookout. Since I'm in PR, I don't want him to surprise me if he decides to head my way.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
So far in 2010, we've accumulated the following:

Named storms: 7
Hurricanes: 3
Major hurricanes: 2
ACE: 62

Over the years 1950-2009, the averages are:

Named storms: 10.4
Hurricanes: 6.2
Major hurricanes: 2.7
ACE: 101

Meaning, obviously, the season will be considered average from a climatological point of view with just the following:

Further named storms: 3.4
Further hurricanes: 3.2
Further major hurricanes: .7
Further ACE: 39

In just the past 13 days, we've seen the following:

Named storms: 4
Hurricanes: 2
Major hurricanes: 2
ACE: 52

Meaning that with the peak of the season a week away, much activity in the tropics, and multiple indicators pointing to increased activity to come, we should meet the criteria for an average season in two to three weeks...leaving the remainder of September, a likely hyperactive October, and a still-active November to add to the totals.

A "busted" season, huh? ;-)


I wouldn't use the 1950-2009 average. It is going to be on the low side of things, so it's hardly proving any point. Only El Nino seasons have come close to that climatology, let alone way below it. Even the seasons that would have the climate similar to this with La Nina/AMO+ before '95 - roughly 50-65 - had some of the storms not counted due to limited technology.

The average from 95-09 has been 14-8-4. I have little doubt that this season will meet/surpass that, considering we're about halfway already with September and October to go, at least.
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1003. IKE
Quoting palmasdelrio:


Why do you say that? I don't know how to read maps, etc. but the blob that was Gaston sure looks pretty ominous. I thought that from the looks of it, it was a td by now.


The convection is dying off. Maybe it will come back...if so, the NHC should upgrade it.
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Quoting rarepearldesign:
Well Earl is just off the coast of Southeast tip of Nova Scotia. I knew it was going to come east and ride more central into NS. Came even more east than I thought. Anyways, I am 25kms outside Halifax and we are expected to get the brunt of the NE quadrant...winds are picking up!!

Thanks! Please keep us posted!
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1001. tkeith
Quoting palmasdelrio:


Why do you say that? I don't know how to read maps, etc. but the blob that was Gaston sure looks pretty ominous. I thought that from the looks of it, it was a td by now.
Gaston has had sort of an identity crisis since he came on the scene...

I dont think he knows what he wants to be when he grows up...yet:)
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HA! Aqua, flattering pic taken by hubby. Pic was in May. Curls turned to frizz bush in record-breaking Metro area heat. Cut it all off (kinda' miss the mess, but it grows).

I'm loving the crow but take fish-oil caps. A friend from NOAA (Washington State) went down to the Gulf to sniff and "approve or disapprove" the catch. Very scientific, lol!

Trying to decide whether to re-up as a disaster reservist or take a "day-job" at a new division of Petco. Nothing worse than "stand-by" mode and not working, but don't want to wishcast destruction for sure!
Any thoughts on the rest of the season? (I do like the fur-kids).
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So far in 2010, we've accumulated the following:

Named storms: 7
Hurricanes: 3
Major hurricanes: 2
ACE: 62

Over the years 1950-2009, the averages are:

Named storms: 10.4
Hurricanes: 6.2
Major hurricanes: 2.7
ACE: 101

Meaning, obviously, the season will be considered average from a climatological point of view with just the following:

Further named storms: 3.4
Further hurricanes: 3.2
Further major hurricanes: .7
Further ACE: 39

In just the past 13 days, we've seen the following:

Named storms: 4
Hurricanes: 2
Major hurricanes: 2
ACE: 52

Meaning that with the peak of the season a week away, much activity in the tropics, and multiple indicators pointing to increased activity to come, we should meet the criteria for an average season in two to three weeks...leaving the remainder of September, a likely hyperactive October, and a still-active November to add to the totals.

A "busted" season, huh? ;-)
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Well Earl is just off the coast of Southeast tip of Nova Scotia. I knew it was going to come east and ride more central into NS. Came even more east than I thought. Anyways, I am 25kms outside Halifax and we are expected to get the brunt of the NE quadrant...winds are picking up!!
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Quoting IKE:
Gaston is losing his convection...Link

...........................................




Just went outside. Feels like the front has made it through here...winds have shifted to the west and NW.


Why do you say that? I don't know how to read maps, etc. but the blob that was Gaston sure looks pretty ominous. I thought that from the looks of it, it was a td by now.
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Gaston... a little blob in the Atlantic surrounded by a desert.

Reminds me of the little engine that could, 96L of 2007 (though ultimately, it couldn't). I think it was 2007 anyway. Battled dry air for about a week.
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995. IKE
Central Park,NYC,NY.....rain from Earl....

Precipitation 0.00 in.


Philadelphia,PA....

Precipitation 0.00 in

..............................................

Morning aqua and everybody else.


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994. KYDan
Gaston has quite a bit of dry air on the west side to overcome.

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handsome men, beautiful women- love the curls, AIM- ad it's a nice morning here in NE Fla as well.

Ike, I really enjoy it when you post the stats. "That's gonna change"...uh NO, it's not.

Sorry but I'd rather see everyone at a huge crow buffet, than deal with any major hits. Crow and Fish. Yum Yum.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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