Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl hits Nova Scotia but spares New England; Gaston still a threat

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:30 PM GMT on September 04, 2010

Tropical Storm Earl roared ashore over western Nova Scotia late this morning, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to much of the province. The capital of Halifax recorded sustained winds of 51 mph, gusting to 75 mph at 12:48pm AST this afternoon, and the power is out to tens of thousands of residents in Nova Scotia. Winds were stronger at McNabs Island, in Halifax Harbor, where sustained winds of 64 mph, gusting to 76 mph, occurred at noon AST.

Earl's center passed about 100 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, at 1am EDT this morning, and the winds on the weak left side of the storm never reached sustained tropical storm strength (39 mph) at any New England land station. The peak wind gust in Massachusetts may have been the 58 mph gust recorded on Cape Cod 5 miles south-southeast of Barnstable early this morning. Earl did bring some very high waves to New England; waves at the buoy 60 miles southeast of Nantucket peaked at 27 feet early this morning. Heavy rain from Earl--over five inches in some locations--caused localized flooding and road closures on Cape Cod and on Marthas Vineyard.

Figure 1. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall from Earl from the Cape Cod radar.

Gaston a threat to develop
Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment. It is also possible that Gaston may be able to protect its core by wrapping moisture around to its east side; recent visible satellite imagery shows a band of moisture wrapping around along Gaston's south side. If this process is successful, Gaston may have a good chance of becoming a tropical depression on Sunday. I suspect there is too much dry air in Gaston's environment for Gaston to develop into a tropical depression today. The atmosphere is moister near the Lesser Antilles Islands, and Gaston has a better chance of developing on Monday when it finds this moister environment. NHC is giving Gaston a 70% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Monday. The models are in fairly good agreement bringing Gaston though the central or northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday. The storm should then slow down and head more to the west-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday, in response to a large trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic might be at risk of a strike by a reborn Tropical Storm Gaston by Thursday, if the storm follows a more southerly track over the next few days.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but could turn more to the north-northwest and bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, but not much heavy thunderstorm activity. This system is under moderate wind shear, but is headed towards a region of high wind shear northwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. This shear will very likely destroy the disturbance by Tuesday. NHC is giving 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting development 3 - 6 days from now of a tropical wave that hasn't emerged from the coast of Africa yet.

Next post
I'll have an update by 1pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl Waves (Murko)

Waves from Eleuthera, Bahamas, as Earl passed by as a cat 4 storm. The cliffs are about 30ft high.

Earl The Pearl (teach50)

Went down to Jones Beach again today. The beach was taken over by the power of the waves during high tide.

Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)

Categories: Hurricane

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2601. Dakster 3:33 PM GMT on September 05, 2010
Quoting StormW: I'll tell ya...if ignorance is bliss...then Dr. Masters blog is in ecstasy LOL. You are in rare form today Stormw... Everything going ok? Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4942

2602. aislinnpaps 3:40 PM GMT on September 05, 2010
sammywammybamy and everyone. Thank you. The references to him were not all the same, so a little confusing, but now they make sense. Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2438

2603. IKE 3:43 PM GMT on September 05, 2010
GMZ089-052130- SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO 1030 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 .SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES OVER SW GULF COAST AT 19.5N95.5W 1007 MB NEARLY STATIONARY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BEING MOVING TOWARD THE N-NW TONIGHT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN COASTLINE AND MOVE INLAND NEAR 25N98W MON NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM THE LOW TO THE NW GULF WILL ALSO MOVE NW ACROSS W WATERS. STRONG PRES GRADIENT TO THE E OF THE LOW AND TROUGH WILL PRODUCE FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS SHIFTING NW WITH THESE FEATURES THROUGH TUE. A STALLED WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE FAR N GULF WILL DISSIPATE EARLY MON. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE N GULF TUE THROUGH THU. ........................................... SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W 1130 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2010 .SYNOPSIS...THE REMNANT LOW PRES OF GASTON NEAR 17N50.5W THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MOVE W ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE MON MORNING THROUGH TUE MORNING...THEN MOVE ACROSS OR JUST S OF PUERTO RICO TUE EVENING AND NIGHT...AND PASS JUST S OF HISPANIOLA WED THROUGH LATE THU. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 64W N OF 14N THIS MORNING MOVING W WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES HISPANIOLA MON. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047

2605. waveryder 6:39 PM GMT on September 05, 2010
Doug checking in from the Seacoast region of NH. From my handle you can guess my interest in this blog. I always root for TS and Hurricanes to track 100 or more miles off shore - less likely that way that we will experience loss of life and property (in most cases) and offshore storm tracks make for better surfing conditions! I paddled out yesterday morning about 10:30 just two hours or so into the falling tide at an exposed headland about 5 miles southeast of the mouth of the Piscataqua river. Conditions overnight in our location were not severe, and the morning's weather was beautiful, mild with light westerlies (gradients have since tightened and winds have been blowing 16 -20 mph from NW). Swell was consistently 6-8' at our shoreline from mid morning to early afternoon and then fell progressively over these last 24 hours. I have surfed the same spot many time before in groundswell from Atlantic hurricanes and windswell from Nor'easters. During the very short swell window yesterday there was powerful surf focused on southeast exposed ledge and point breaks and I was fortunate to ride several waves with faces in the 10-12' range. Next time I will get you all some photos. I have been living here since the 60's and have always been drawn to be a witness to (and as a surfer a participant in) the powerful coastal weather systems that are a part of the fabric of life here on the short, varied NH coastline. Mostly cold core storms here, but I keep watch for tropical systems as summer cools to autumn. Love lurking here on WU and enjoy the good information and wacky banter alike. Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2

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