Earl hits Nova Scotia but spares New England; Gaston still a threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:30 PM GMT on September 04, 2010

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Tropical Storm Earl roared ashore over western Nova Scotia late this morning, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to much of the province. The capital of Halifax recorded sustained winds of 51 mph, gusting to 75 mph at 12:48pm AST this afternoon, and the power is out to tens of thousands of residents in Nova Scotia. Winds were stronger at McNabs Island, in Halifax Harbor, where sustained winds of 64 mph, gusting to 76 mph, occurred at noon AST.

Earl's center passed about 100 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, at 1am EDT this morning, and the winds on the weak left side of the storm never reached sustained tropical storm strength (39 mph) at any New England land station. The peak wind gust in Massachusetts may have been the 58 mph gust recorded on Cape Cod 5 miles south-southeast of Barnstable early this morning. Earl did bring some very high waves to New England; waves at the buoy 60 miles southeast of Nantucket peaked at 27 feet early this morning. Heavy rain from Earl--over five inches in some locations--caused localized flooding and road closures on Cape Cod and on Marthas Vineyard.


Figure 1. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.


Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall from Earl from the Cape Cod radar.

Gaston a threat to develop
Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment. It is also possible that Gaston may be able to protect its core by wrapping moisture around to its east side; recent visible satellite imagery shows a band of moisture wrapping around along Gaston's south side. If this process is successful, Gaston may have a good chance of becoming a tropical depression on Sunday. I suspect there is too much dry air in Gaston's environment for Gaston to develop into a tropical depression today. The atmosphere is moister near the Lesser Antilles Islands, and Gaston has a better chance of developing on Monday when it finds this moister environment. NHC is giving Gaston a 70% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Monday. The models are in fairly good agreement bringing Gaston though the central or northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday. The storm should then slow down and head more to the west-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday, in response to a large trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic might be at risk of a strike by a reborn Tropical Storm Gaston by Thursday, if the storm follows a more southerly track over the next few days.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but could turn more to the north-northwest and bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, but not much heavy thunderstorm activity. This system is under moderate wind shear, but is headed towards a region of high wind shear northwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. This shear will very likely destroy the disturbance by Tuesday. NHC is giving 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting development 3 - 6 days from now of a tropical wave that hasn't emerged from the coast of Africa yet.

Next post
I'll have an update by 1pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl Waves (Murko)
Waves from Eleuthera, Bahamas, as Earl passed by as a cat 4 storm. The cliffs are about 30ft high.
Hurricane Earl Waves
Earl The Pearl (teach50)
Went down to Jones Beach again today. The beach was taken over by the power of the waves during high tide.
Earl The Pearl
Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)
Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4

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Quoting jurakantaino:
Hablo español, farlo portuguese, parlo italiano fluently, and I also speak English, a little bit of French and German.


A Palavra correctamente em Portugues e Fala (f) o Falo (m). Meu mai e de Brasil e fala Portugues de Florianopolis em o Sul de Brasil.

Wooo...haven't wrote in Portuguese since talking to my cousins on facebook a few months back...I digress..back to weather talk:)
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that should be low typing error
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1803. will40


at 108 it starts on the one that came off africa
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Quoting KanKunKid:
While waiting for Gaston to develop




That's just too funny. ;P
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Quoting KanKunKid:
While waiting for Gaston to develop


SmileyCentral.com
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 252
1800. will40
Quoting Hurricanes101:


GFS is basically killing everything, Ike would love this run lol


yea he lurking and laffin lol
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1799. Grothar
Seems to be moving away from the dry air, but still nothing firing up. I give it one more day.

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1798. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1797. xcool
Hurricanes101 haha
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Grothar:


Impressive. German is hard. Don't feel badly, most of the Germans don't speak it properly anyway. I understand the Northern Dialects, but lost on the Southern ones.


I learned Bavarain, so different than what they speak over by Landstuhl! There it has more of a French pronunciation than Bavarian, 'ech' instead if 'ick' for example
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3160
1795. will40
its just one run of one model tho
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1794. xcool
will40 .poor rob.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:


GFS is basically killing everything, Ike would love this run lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7872
1792. JLPR2
Quoting KanKunKid:
While waiting for Gaston to develop



haha! wow! XD
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1791. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1790. will40
Quoting xcool:
will40 lol he bust


ah ha
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Quoting Grothar:


Now you tell me. I could have been insulting you and I wouldn't have known it was one of my favorite bloggers. LOL Why the name change? Witness Protection Program? What did you do now?


Lol. Sort of. Of all things I had a female stalker. And not just on this site. My emails were opened before I got to them. A lot of different accounts were hacked. It had to be a joke by someone I know. But I am so technologically impaired I'll never know how they did it. At least I hope it was a joke. Yikes! Lol.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 252
1788. xcool
lmao lmao
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
We're entering peak week and it looks like Gaston will soon develop. Also, the GFS is showing another fish storm developing in about five days.
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1785. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1784. JLPR2
Quoting jurakantaino:
Hablo español, farlo portuguese, parlo italiano fluently, and I also speak English, a little bit of French and German.


I'll keep in mind the parlo italiano, going to take that class on my 4th year or earlier. XD
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I can see Gastons COC now on the AVN loop but elongated east to west at 16.7N 48.4W
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1782. xcool
will40 lol he bust
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1781. will40
1729. btwntx08 11:58 PM EDT on September 04, 2010
actually the td is still there in the boc will
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nam doesnt give up though lol remember its the first one in a while the gfs doesnt see it i bet its back next run watch
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1779. JLPR2
Quoting h0db:


Can one of you guys go poke Gaston with a stick or something? This is creeping me out, like watching "Carrie."


That would be a creepy ending. XD
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1778. Grothar
Quoting KanKunKid:

I can get by with French and Spanish and Portuguese, but German Hard ! Now I'm learning Russian! its even harder! I was gonna try Chinese but lost the motivation. I never did learn "Jive".


Impressive. German is hard. Don't feel badly, most of the Germans don't speak it properly anyway. I understand the Northern Dialects, but lost on the Southern ones.
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1777. xcool
btwntx08 yeah
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Grothar:


If you would like, you can write to me on WU in German and you could practice. Be surprised how much comes back.


I would love to, but never learned how to write in German! I moved there and learned to speak it by imersion, no one spoke English.
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Quoting will40:
just saw it on 78


the wave SW of former 99L looks good

and it has model support, also it is far south
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Quoting caneswatch:


Se habla espanol.
Hablo español, farlo portuguese, parlo italiano fluently, and I also speak English, a little bit of French and German.
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PcolaDan +1
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Quoting h0db:


Can one of you guys go poke Gaston with a stick or something? This is creeping me out, like watching "Carrie."


Do you know how long ago I asked for them to plug out of the life support? But nobody listened. Maybe you'll have better luck.
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1771. will40
just saw it on 78
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1770. pottery
Quoting PcolaDan:



Very Good!
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evening all
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did i say td lol no
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Quoting will40:
only double i see is off africa


agreed, its funny how the models have dropped Gaston all of a sudden after redeveloping it for like 4 days
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7872
1766. will40
only double i see is off africa
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and with that I cue the "season is a bust" people, who conveniently were on vacation these past 2 weeks!!
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7872
My call of 10-4-2 may not be off..... I got a feeling though it'll prob be 13-7-3 now
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1763. h0db
Quoting RickWPB:
Gaston may not be dead yet, but it sure looks like it's losing it's circulation. In the last 3 or 4 frames looks like an open wave.

IR Floater


Can one of you guys go poke Gaston with a stick or something? This is creeping me out, like watching "Carrie."
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Quoting Grothar:


No, really interested. I was educated mostly in Germany and Norway and Switzerland.
Ok, sorry if I missed the ball. The impression doesn't go away though. language does intrigue me. Perhaps I was trying too hard to be funny. I meant to be respectful.
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1761. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
system at 78 hrs not dead
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1759. Grothar
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hey! I was an English major one semester! I thought I was a criminal justice major? But no I was told the English department had my "FOLDER" therefore I was an English major. Lol. Btw hi Grothar. I changed my name from Homelesswanderer. If you remember me. :)


Now you tell me. I could have been insulting you and I wouldn't have known it was one of my favorite bloggers. LOL Why the name change? Witness Protection Program? What did you do now?
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


I speak enough Spanish to get by and used to speak German pretty well, but haven't used it in a while. I was there last year and the year before, understood more than I could remember how to say. Am going back in early June again, though may be the last time.

I can get by with French and Spanish and Portuguese, but German Hard ! Now I'm learning Russian! its even harder! I was gonna try Chinese but lost the motivation. I never did learn "Jive".
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Quoting btwntx08:
two closed isobars with the boc low at 60 hrs


its also very broad and elongated

that is not a TD
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7872
Quoting Grothar:


oui


Que pasa?
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Quoting pottery:

which seas??


Lol poor wording... The Atlantic in general looks turbulent. Haven't had a chance to look at any shear maps but based on satellite imagery im guessing its high across the basin.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.