Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl hits Nova Scotia but spares New England; Gaston still a threat

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:30 PM GMT on September 04, 2010

Tropical Storm Earl roared ashore over western Nova Scotia late this morning, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to much of the province. The capital of Halifax recorded sustained winds of 51 mph, gusting to 75 mph at 12:48pm AST this afternoon, and the power is out to tens of thousands of residents in Nova Scotia. Winds were stronger at McNabs Island, in Halifax Harbor, where sustained winds of 64 mph, gusting to 76 mph, occurred at noon AST.

Earl's center passed about 100 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, at 1am EDT this morning, and the winds on the weak left side of the storm never reached sustained tropical storm strength (39 mph) at any New England land station. The peak wind gust in Massachusetts may have been the 58 mph gust recorded on Cape Cod 5 miles south-southeast of Barnstable early this morning. Earl did bring some very high waves to New England; waves at the buoy 60 miles southeast of Nantucket peaked at 27 feet early this morning. Heavy rain from Earl--over five inches in some locations--caused localized flooding and road closures on Cape Cod and on Marthas Vineyard.

Figure 1. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall from Earl from the Cape Cod radar.

Gaston a threat to develop
Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment. It is also possible that Gaston may be able to protect its core by wrapping moisture around to its east side; recent visible satellite imagery shows a band of moisture wrapping around along Gaston's south side. If this process is successful, Gaston may have a good chance of becoming a tropical depression on Sunday. I suspect there is too much dry air in Gaston's environment for Gaston to develop into a tropical depression today. The atmosphere is moister near the Lesser Antilles Islands, and Gaston has a better chance of developing on Monday when it finds this moister environment. NHC is giving Gaston a 70% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Monday. The models are in fairly good agreement bringing Gaston though the central or northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday. The storm should then slow down and head more to the west-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday, in response to a large trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic might be at risk of a strike by a reborn Tropical Storm Gaston by Thursday, if the storm follows a more southerly track over the next few days.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but could turn more to the north-northwest and bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, but not much heavy thunderstorm activity. This system is under moderate wind shear, but is headed towards a region of high wind shear northwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. This shear will very likely destroy the disturbance by Tuesday. NHC is giving 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting development 3 - 6 days from now of a tropical wave that hasn't emerged from the coast of Africa yet.

Next post
I'll have an update by 1pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Earl Waves (Murko)

Waves from Eleuthera, Bahamas, as Earl passed by as a cat 4 storm. The cliffs are about 30ft high.

Earl The Pearl (teach50)

Went down to Jones Beach again today. The beach was taken over by the power of the waves during high tide.

Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)

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801. aislinnpaps 9:57 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting canehater1: GOM trough in BOC up to 30% now. Hard to imagine anything will come of it, but starnger things have happened...I remember Danny in 97 went from broad low to cat 1 in 72 hrs... There was one in off texas that when I went to bed it was nothing and woke up to hurricane warnings in Louisiana. Can't remember the name, but about three years ago?? Didn't do much thank goodness. Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2438

802. Hurricanes101 9:57 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
opens up again in 48 hours it is the 18Z GFS, considered the least accurate; so we have to take what it does with the BOC system and Ex-Gaston with a grain of salt Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

803. Tazmanian 9:57 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
some in tells me that this may get bump up some more in the next two am forcasting any where from 40 to 60% at the next two per 90L is looking vary good right now Link Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111354

804. Hurricanes101 9:58 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting aislinnpaps: There was one in off texas that when I went to bed it was nothing and woke up to hurricane warnings in Louisiana. Can't remember the name, but about three years ago?? Didn't do much thank goodness. Humberto, and it did cause damage Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

805. galvestonhurricane 9:58 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting aislinnpaps: There was one in off texas that when I went to bed it was nothing and woke up to hurricane warnings in Louisiana. Can't remember the name, but about three years ago?? Didn't do much thank goodness. Humberto Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 176

806. MiamiHurricanes09 9:58 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
With ex-Gaston the 18z GFS resembles the 12z run closely so far with the 18z run being a tad bit further west and south. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

807. aislinnpaps 9:58 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting TexasHurricane: I wonder who? I'm going to go with MX or LA. They seem to like those locations this year....hmmmmm Thank you for thinking of us in Louisiana, but I think we'll pass... Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2438

808. MiamiHurricanes09 9:59 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: opens up again in 48 hours it is the 18Z GFS, considered the least accurate; so we have to take what it does with the BOC system and Ex-Gaston with a grain of salt No, the 12z GFS (the more accurate run) develops it into a moderate/strong TS too. 12z GFS 48 hours: Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

809. aislinnpaps 9:59 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101: Humberto, and it did cause damage Sorry, I meant here. It did do damage elsewhere. Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2438

810. Hurricanes101 9:59 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
1008mb low has formed in the BOC Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

811. Tazmanian 10:00 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
it looks like per 90L is even stalled Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111354

812. tkeith 10:01 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Them goofy "G" named stoms aint been too kind to LA recently... Gustav? Gaston? who they got at the NHC thinkin up these names? Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8839

813. TexasHurricane 10:01 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting aislinnpaps: Thank you for thinking of us in Louisiana, but I think we'll pass... Not wishing them there of course...... Just where they seemed to have gone so far this year. I'm sure that can change however. Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

814. hydrus 10:01 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting StormSurgeon: Hydrus is beyond cool....... You guys are cool. Always a good attitude when you post. And we all love studying weather..In fact, there are a lot of cool people on this blog...Smart too. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14301

815. xcool 10:01 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
wow Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

817. Halyn 10:02 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
AtHome .. I gave up trying to quote you .. but .. Congratulations !!! I agree .. just in time for the 201 season .. :) I'm going to have to go back to Oct. 24, 1967 and see what, if anything, was happening then .. might answer some questions about my youngest daughter .. lol. Member Since: August 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 98

818. xcool 10:02 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

819. aislinnpaps 10:03 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting TexasHurricane: Not wishing them there of course...... Just where they seemed to have gone so far this year. I'm sure that can change however. G I know, just couldn't resist. But they haven't come here yet this year. You mean the last couple of years I think. Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2438

820. tkeith 10:03 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
818. xcool high is buildin in bigtime X Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8839

821. alexhurricane1991 10:03 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting xcool: Looks like hermine will be in the bay of campeche according to the gfs Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2543

822. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 10:04 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40568

823. xcool 10:04 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

824. TexasHurricane 10:04 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting xcool: wow what? kinda hard to tell. Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

825. AtHomeInTX 10:05 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting will40: ut oh 2 days in a row she called in right? Hey Will. So glad I didn't jinx your shield. Was sweatin bullets for a while there. Lol. Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3886

826. alexhurricane1991 10:05 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting xcool: look at that ridging! Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2543

827. robert88 10:05 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Gaston has a lot of work to do. For the time being the tropics are looking less active. Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 877

828. xcool 10:05 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

830. MiamiHurricanes09 10:05 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting xcool: It takes 'Hermine' northward before landfall. Gaston over the northern Lesser Antilles. Lows with closed isobars all over the place in the EATL. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

831. xcool 10:06 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
alexhurricane1991 yeah strong Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

832. TexasHurricane 10:06 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting aislinnpaps: G I know, just couldn't resist. But they haven't come here yet this year. You mean the last couple of years I think. I mean the wannabe's that were close to forming but never really did.....gave LA lots of rain and some winds I think. Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

833. tkeith 10:06 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting aislinnpaps: G I know, just couldn't resist. But they haven't come here yet this year. You mean the last couple of years I think. I was referin to Gustav in the recent past...now a Gaston...sounds like a 1860's cajun name to me. Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8839

834. xcool 10:06 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
very weaker.. Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

835. PSLFLCaneVet 10:07 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting StormW: Good evening! Right back atcha, Senior Chief! Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

836. alexhurricane1991 10:08 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting xcool: very weaker.. Here comes Igor near the cape verdes Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2543

837. MiamiHurricanes09 10:08 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting xcool: very weaker.. Yup...much weaker and further south than the 12z run with Gaston. It's been consistent with the tropical cyclone in the EATL though. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

838. DarIvy959810 10:09 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting xcool: wow What is it ? Member Since: May 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 171

839. MiamiHurricanes09 10:10 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Yup...much weaker and further south than the 12z run with Gaston. It's been consistent with the tropical cyclone in the EATL though. PGI41L (the wave near 9N 7W accompanied by an area of low pressure) is what the GFS develops. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

840. xcool 10:10 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
i think time for rip or i wait for one more gfs run Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

841. stormwatcherCI 10:10 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: KOG' is the island just to the NE of Earl Newfoundland ? Please don't laugh. TIA Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

842. alexhurricane1991 10:11 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting DarIvy959810: What is it ? Look at the ridging. Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2543

843. xcool 10:11 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
DarIvy959810 boc low Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

844. xcool 10:11 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

845. aquak9 10:12 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
tkeith- wonder when they'll use Guiseppe or Gregory I prefer Gerbil "Hurricane Gerbil" it has a catchy ring, eh? stringing up cayennes- why do I grow these damned things if I can't eat them? Hotter'n hell they are. Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008

846. seflagamma 10:14 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting aquak9: tkeith- wonder when they'll use Guiseppe or Gregory I prefer Gerbil "Hurricane Gerbil" it has a catchy ring, eh? stringing up cayennes- why do I grow these damned things if I can't eat them? Hotter'n hell they are. Gregory is my son's name; would rather not use it.. already taken by a good man! LOL I do like Gerbil...:o) Hi aqua!< Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40485

847. stormwatcherCI 10:14 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting aquak9: tkeith- wonder when they'll use Guiseppe or Gregory I prefer Gerbil "Hurricane Gerbil" it has a catchy ring, eh? stringing up cayennes- why do I grow these damned things if I can't eat them? Hotter'n hell they are. LOL, My parrot dropped a jalapeno out of his food and it sprouted and now I have them growing all over the place. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

848. hurricane23 10:15 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
That 12z GFS run ain't gonna happen. Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276

849. xcool 10:15 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15503

850. aislinnpaps 10:16 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Quoting tkeith: I was referin to Gustav in the recent past...now a Gaston...sounds like a 1860's cajun name to me. It does sound like a good cajun name. G Hmmm, I think all of you will have to come stand by me at the coast and start blowing fans out at Gaston if he decides to come here. Then we'll feed you gumbo and etouffe! Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2438

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