Gaston still a threat to redevelop
For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.
Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.
Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.
Jeff Masters
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (
RIWXPhoto)
Reader Comments
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Gaston looks to be in a favorable environment, right now.
72g of protein! Wo, he'll be too strong!
Might as well give it a few margarita's as well.
ok, I was saying yesterday how the the storms (Alex) and the wannabe's seem to like MX and LA this year....so far anyways.
Storm, remember some of us are learning, what that map means?
Thank you
Too strong lol :P
Hi Storm!
Ike, I thought I recalled MH09 playing a prank with some of our fellow bloggers a couple of months ago. Am I mistaken, MH09?
The map shows Upper Level Wind Shear. Gaston appears to be in an area of low wind shear.
TD in the gulf. Gaston is an open wave in the image; which I find to be false.
Like Clark Kent and Superman.
hmmm ok. What is mother nature trying to tell us??
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2010
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1009 MB LOW...REMNANT OF GASTON...IS ABOUT 600 NM E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N51W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW LEVEL SWIRL WITH SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO THE W FROM
15N-19N BETWEEN 50W-54W. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
LIMITED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
RE-FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE SW GULF WHERE A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM A 1005 MB LOW 35 NM NE OFF THE COAST OF
THE CITY OF VERACRUZ NEAR 19.6N 95.4W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS NNE ALONG 23N95W TO 26N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA S OF 27N W OF 91W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO. OFFICIAL DATA FROM SEVERAL WEATHER STATIONS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CITY OF VERACRUZ HAVE REGISTERED BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 24 HRS. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNW OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION...BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE TEXAS COAST BY TUESDAY
MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
Have any idea if Gaston will go north or south or over the Islands?
um....guessing here. Going to TX?
Are the white areas on that map extremely low shear or just no data?
I think that Greenland will have to worry about Gaston, as a warm cored system. May bring hurricane force conditions there. XD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMING IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF.
The data buoy near 22 north and 94 west has had its wind turn from east with gusts to 35 mph to south, though only at around 10 kts but the pressure is down to 1005.7 and is falling against the rise indicating to me a tropical depression is starting to form. Depending on where the center develops, this is something that should concern residents of deep south Texas. Obviously the WRF is wildest about this, but this is contingent on the development being further out over the water, something the global models arent seeing.
And then there is gaston, which my strict interpretation is a depression, but has essentially continued west unchanged It will be in the islands by Tuesday afternoon
BY JOE B
Making room for Gaston, it seems. ;)
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2010
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA ALONG 10W MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR THE
WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1009 MB LOW ALONG AND THE AXIS
NEAR 9N. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE ATLC OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS.
...ITCZ...
A MONSOONAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF W AFRICA
NEAR 19N20W ALONG 10N23W TO 6N35W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS
AND CONTINUES WESTWARD ALONG 10N45W TO 12N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 6N TO 14N
BETWEEN THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AND 22W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W-43W.
Potentially dire to catastrophic given the right conditions.
thanks
The center is over water as per NHC.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE SW GULF WHERE A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM A 1005 MB LOW 35 NM NE OFF THE COAST OF
THE CITY OF VERACRUZ NEAR 19.6N 95.4W.
?????
amen.
oh, is it that? I thought he was to referring to where it may go. Who knows maybe it is both....
and that would be?
I check in to see if dry air or a flock of gulls flying through might have killed Gaston but it keeps on coming.
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