Intensifying Hermine closes in on the Texas/Mexico coast
Steadily intensifying Tropical Storm Hermine is closing in on the coast near the Texas/Mexico border, and should move ashore late tonight. Hermine became a tropical depression at 11pm last night, and could become a minimal hurricane by 11 pm tonight. Hermine's rate of intensification from nothing to a strong tropical storm is one of the fastest on record. It turns out that the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, where Hermine formed, is prone to these sort of rapidly intensifying tropical storms. The curvature and topography of the land help induce a counter-clockwise spin to the air over the region, which helps get tropical storms spinning up unusually quickly. Helping the spin-up process are the very warm 30°C waters, low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and moist atmosphere. Hermine promises to be a very wet storm, and latest long range radar out of Brownsville, Texas shows a large area of heavy rain has been drenching southern Texas and northern Mexico all afternoon, with radar estimated rainfall amounts exceeding two inches in a few areas along the coast. Radar loops show that an eyewall is attempting to form, but a region of dry air from over land spiraled into Hermine's core between 4 - 5pm EDT, disrupting eyewall formation. However, it now appears that Hermine has closed off its eye from this dry air, which should aid in intensification. Satellite imagery shows Hermine has vigorous thunderstorms with very cold tops, and improving low-level spiral banding.
Forecast for Hermine
Hermine doesn't have much time over water before it comes ashore, which is a good thing. The storm is steadily organizing, and has a shot at reaching hurricane strength before the center moves ashore late tonight, near midnight. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Hermine, though isolated tornadoes may also cause damage, particularly over South Texas. Hermine is expected to accelerate through Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday, and the storm's rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions affecting Central Texas.
Figure 1. Late afternoon radar image of Tropical Storm Hermine. Note the band of dry air spiraling into the core of the storm from the north.
Gaston continues to suffer from dry air
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft spent the afternoon in Gaston's remains, and found a weak 1012 mb center of low pressure with only a limited region of westerly winds on the south side of the center of circulation. Top surface winds uncontaminated by heavy rain seen by their SFMR instrument were in the 30 - 35 mph range. The airplane found plenty of dry air in the storm's environment, and there are not enough heavy thunderstorms in ex-Gaston's circulation for it to qualify as a tropical depression. The remains of Gaston are now approaching the northern Lesser Antilles, and residents can expect a few heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 40 mph beginning early this evening and continuing into the night. Latest radar out of Martinique doesn't show much in the way of heavy rain, and satellite imagery confirms that the thunderstorm activity associated with Gaston's remains is quite sparse. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops.
Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.
Forecast for Gaston
There is little change to the forecast for Gaston's remains. Dry air will continue to be the major impediment to development, and the system is unlikely to become a tropical depression today. However, wind shear, which is currently a moderate 10 knots, is forecast by the latest SHIPS model run to fall very low, 0 - 5 knots, tonight through Wednesday. With almost no wind shear affecting it, Gaston will a better chance of keeping the moisture from its heavy thunderstorms near its core on Tuesday. This will insulate the storm from the dry air surrounding it. The atmosphere is also moister in the eastern Caribbean, further increasing the chances of development. I believe it is probable Gaston will become a tropical depression again on Tuesday. NHC is currently giving Gaston a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, which is a reasonable forecast.
Heavy rain showers and gusty winds from the storm will affect Puerto Rico Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. This activity will spread to the Dominican Republic Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Assuming dry air and an encounter with Hispaniola's high mountains do not destroy Gaston, heavy rain from the storm should move over Haiti, eastern Cuba, and Jamaica Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The models don't give much support for Gaston surviving past Wednesday. The ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, Canadian, and HWRF models all dissipate Gaston. However, two models--the GFDL and UKMET--predict that Gaston will survive the dry air and an encounter with Hispaniola, and pass far enough south of the island to find a favorable environment in the Central Caribbean for development on Wednesday. Wind shear will be low, water temperatures will be hot, and the atmosphere will be plenty moist. Gaston could intensify into a hurricane in the Western Caribbean by the end of the week, as predicted by the latest run of the GFDL model.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The models are fairly unanimous in predicting development late this week of a tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday. The next storm will be called Igor.
Next post
I'll have an update in the morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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69MPH winds at brownsville.. hours after it hit land..
Well that settles that...KKid YOU are foolish hmmmff!
AOI
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TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
TS at landfall according to NHC
Yeah, but that report is old now, Hermine is a tight small storm like Charley was, and I'm sure winds are howling in Brownsville right now, the eyewall like feature is probably bringing even significantly stronger winds.
Ah!
Your 'little brother' .... LOL.
Good to "see" you.
Going back to Topic..
yea but they aren't perfect
I think that was a few minutes before the worst of the partial eye wall made it in. I wouldn't be surprised to see gusts approaching 80mph.
Just wanted to say I really like your updates and your website is cool. :^)
:)
that would scare a lot of people.. considering I'm sure no one prepared for hurricane force gusts..
official tho
Yeah I'll be picking up lawn furniture from Brownsville out of MY yard! lol
before you mock me, I grew up in a trailer park, not all of us are fortunate to afford something better, and let me tell you, Frances and Jeanne tore apart my neighborhood here in Pinellas county. By the time both storms had crossed the state, sustained winds had weakened to about 60 with with gusts to 75 or so.
We had gusts between 65 and 80 with sustained at 45 to 55, and let me tell you, it tore this area apart, 8 mobile homes completely totaled, with many more heavily damaged.
My very own home took severe damage, and we decided to have it hauled out and junked, it was a pretty scary situation. Thank the Lord my dad found an extra job so we got one of the new 'manufactured homes" on our land site, which our much stronger.
for all we know ALEX could have been a major hurricane wind wise =P
Of course they are official, but they can adjust things in the future if proper proof is given or found at a later date.. just saying
The actual weather forecasts have been calling for gusts up to 75mph, if anyone is caught off guard by them, it's because they wrote this storm off and stopped paying attention.
There was a 21 minute blank spot in between those reports. When I went through hurricane Dennis, the winds went from strong tropical storm force to 120+ and only lasted around 15 minutes. Initial report could have said 70mph, and 25 minutes (and 120mph winds) later, we were in the eye.
check out this, it is a bit to grip but it will put you in the "drivers seat", there an extra surprises under the "brown-eyes" button. and there is a Desktop gauge also you can d/l with it. the software works real nice if your use to GE then it won't be to hard.
Link
toots your horn
Any system, especially a slow-moving one still with access to its moisture source can still strengthen. Hermine was steadily organizing in its short time over water, and a large part of the system is still out over warm, 30-degree waters. It would not surprise me to see Hermine strengthen somewhat until the fuel source is largely removed.
Just like the people who don't evacuate the beach during major hurricanes, and then seem surprised that nobody can save them when they call 911 in the middle of the eye wall, chest deep in water. Choppers can't fly in that.
I'm not accusing the NHC for being wrong, like most silly folks in these blogs do, I am saying that Hermine popped up very fast, if you woke up this morning, did not watch the weather, then went out to enjoy labor day, you would come back for quite a shocker.
yea well that's what they reported ..
I guess they tipped it to 70MPH
I'm on your side, lol. You're of the opinion that potentially stronger winds than quoted may have occurred, yes?
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