Hermine drenching Texas; Gaston's remains less organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 07, 2010

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Tropical Storm Hermine hit the Mexican coast 40 miles south of the Texas border at 9:30 pm EDT last night, with 60 mph sustained winds. Top winds observed in Texas from the storm were 50 mph with gusts to 59 mph at Port Isabel near the Mexican border, and winds at Brownsville hit 45 mph, gusting to 69 mph. Harlingen had the highest gust observed from Hermine, 72 mph, and local storm reports indicate that half of the city lost power and a roof caved in on an apartment complex, with no injuries. Heavy rains have fallen along a 30-mile wide stretch of the Mexican and Texas coast, with 1.41" reported thus far in Harlingen, 3.71" at Brownsville, and 2.00" at Corpus Christi. Radar estimated rainfall amounts (Figure 3) exceed four inches along most of the Lower Texas coast, with maximum amounts near eleven inches twenty miles north of Brownsville.


Figure 1. Radar image of Hermine at landfall.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hermine at 12:45pm EDT Monday September 6, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Hermine became a tropical depression at 11pm Sunday night, and intensified into a 65 mph tropical storm in just 21 hours, an extremely fast intensification rate. It turns out that the southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, where Hermine formed, is prone to these sort of rapidly intensifying tropical storms. This region produced two similar rapidly intensifying storms in 2007, Humberto and Lorenzo. Since 6-hourly position records of Atlantic hurricanes began in 1970, Hurricane Humberto holds the record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). The curvature and topography of the land surrounding the Bay of Campeche help induce a counter-clockwise spin to the air over the region, which helps get tropical storms spinning up unusually quickly. Helping the spin-up process yesterday for Hermine were the very warm 30°C waters, low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and moist atmosphere.


Figure 3. Morning radar-estimated rainfall for Hermine.

Forecast for Hermine
Heavy rain and isolated tornadoes will continue across southern and central Texas today and tomorrow. Hermine is expected to accelerate northward today, limiting the potential for damaging floods along its future path. The storm's rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions affecting Central Texas.

Gaston's remains less organized
Dry air has significantly disrupted the remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, which are now over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands and Puerto Rico. Morning visible satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains no longer have a well-defined surface circulation, though there is still some spin. Latest radar out of Martinique and Puerto Rico show a few heavy rain showers moving through the islands, but no organization to the showers. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. None of the computer models show Gaston redeveloping, and NHC has downgraded the odds of development to 10%. I think the odds should be higher than this, perhaps 30%. Gaston's remains will be disrupted some on Wednesday, when they will encounter the high terrain of Hispaniola.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are two tropical waves off the coast of Africa that NHC is giving a 10% chances of developing into tropical depressions by Thursday. The models are fairly unanimous in predicting development of one or more tropical waves off the coast of Africa 3 - 7 days from now. The next storm will be called Igor.

Eastern Pacific Tropical Depression 11E kills 44 in Guatemala
In the Eastern Pacific, heavy rains from Tropical Depression 11E killed at least 44 people in Guatemala over the weekend. At least 56 are injured, and 16 missing. The heavy rains triggered fifteen landslides that hit portions of the Inter-American Highway, burying a number of vehicles and a bus. Guatemala is still recovering from the impacts of Tropical Storm Agatha, which killed 287 people in the country and did over $1 billion in damage.


Figure 4. Satellite image from Friday, September 3, 2010, showing Tropical Depression 11E over Guatemala. Image credit: NASA.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Next post
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting StormW:


Been busy. Stay with it...wish I could have finished up college.
Thanks. Looks like you have a tough month or two ahead of you. Hopefully it doesn't get too busy.
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Quoting kmanislander:


I sleep with one eye closed and the other on Gaston. No wonder I am exhausted every day.

rofl...confession: I wake up at 3:30 a.m. to see what's going on and I'm not even 'in the cone!'
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You've got to give it to Gaston after getting his butt kicked all along in the Atlantic he is now going for Hispaniola. No brains but a lot of guts.
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2009. xcool
AL, 91, 2010090800, 03, BAMD, 12, 147N, 239W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010090800, 03, BAMD, 24, 151N, 267W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010090800, 03, BAMD, 36, 155N, 297W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010090800, 03, BAMD, 48, 158N, 328W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010090800, 03, BAMD, 60, 161N, 361W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010090800, 03, BAMD, 72, 161N, 391W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010090800, 03, BAMD, 84, 160N, 422W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010090800, 03, BAMD, 96, 159N, 451W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010090800, 03, BAMD, 108, 156N, 476W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010090800, 03, BAMD, 120, 152N, 496W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010090800, 03, BAMD, 132, 150N, 510W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010090800, 03, BAMD, 144, 152N, 517W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010090800, 03, BAMD, 156, 160N, 518W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010090800, 03, BAMD, 168, 176N, 516W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting capesanblas:



Don't have your knowledge K-Man, just a laymans gut feel from watching storms progress over the years (yes, my abode is only about 450 feet from GOM surfline) - but that system has surprise written all over it for central A... stay safe..


I sleep with one eye closed and the other on Gaston. No wonder I am exhausted every day.
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Quoting kmanislander:
Mid level shear is just barely 10 knots and otherwise pretty non existent.

Shear does not seem to be the issue and the convection was strong enough to overcome the dry air.

My only explanation is that John Hope Rules !!



Dry air is the only problem. I initially thought that dry air would no longer be a problem, but the dry air seems to have it on a leash. This system will likely never develop, since it will encounter subsidence to the west.

Dry air has been relentless...

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2006. JRRP
Link
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Luckily mine isn't as hard (yet) as yours was.

So, how ya' been Storm?
That doesn't sound quite right.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5588
2003. scott39
Isnt the problem with exGastons developement now more shear related, and how fast hes moving, rather than just dry air?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yet another wane of convection. LOL! I hope it just dies tonight...I can't stand this fella' anymore.


I feel the same way, just popped in to check on him, I suspect he'll make news in the coming days, jmo I could be completely wrong
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Quoting XL:


Good. Don't mind leaving my husband but I couldn't possibly leave my dog. jk


Ah, um, I don't think I will go there LOL
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Quoting kmanislander:
Mid level shear is just barely 10 knots and otherwise pretty non existent.

Shear does not seem to be the issue and the convection was strong enough to overcome the dry air.

My only explanation is that John Hope Rules !!

Lol, he might be right again.
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Quoting BreadandCircuses:


hmmmm.... unfunny and tastelesss, too.

Until, of course you edited your post to insert a map.....
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1997. centex
Quoting AustinTXWeather:
I didn't realize the center was still so close to us. That explains it -
It's already started it's NNE move which means more rain in our area.
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1996. hydrus
Quoting btwntx08:
hydrus yea it was pretty rough got a gust of 71 right at my house
&1 mph can do some damage...G,night all.
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Mid level shear is just barely 10 knots and otherwise pretty non existent.

Shear does not seem to be the issue and the convection was strong enough to overcome the dry air.

My only explanation is that John Hope Rules !!

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1994. beell
Quoting Chicklit:

beell, please tell if you think that mess around the Florida Straits will affect ex-Gaston. And is that the former ULL that was traveling in tandem with ExG? And finally, do you think there may be an upper cyclone forming over ExG?


I do think the stuff over the FL Straits is associated with the upper low working its way down. Maybe enough to tug Xg to the right/north. It is not completely upper level. But he/it would have to buff up a little bit to make that turn. Track models continue to indicate "West".

Benign upper level conditions over the northern Caribbean through Friday-maybe not a textbook anti-cyclone but not too shabby.
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1992. breald
Quoting KanKunKid:

It can be if you have one of those "frozen concoctions" to help you hang on. There is a good reason they don't let you have guns here.


LOL sounds like my kind of place.
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1991. XL
Quoting kmanislander:


You will know by Thursday whether to leave or not.


Good. Don't mind leaving my husband but I couldn't possibly leave my dog. jk
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Quoting StormW:


I know what that's like.


Umm I think he is actually doing it... not helping his Grandkids do it ;) ummmm hehe sorry Senior Chief :)
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:



With Gaston I think we're all still looking for illumination. ;)

Try the RGB loop for spin. Yup, I think so - still has some low-level spin around a possible coc at 16.5n,66w is the guess. Of course, it's nearly hidden by overhead convection. Imagine that. Another improvement - 700mb vorticity, now symmetrical and more amplified as opposed to elongated and weaker.

NHC is not mentioning it - only the "convection remnants" are supposed to pass over Hispaniola. Now, that's been the first thing I've seen they've that makes sense, considering the southerly flow comment and finally attributed to the ULL to it west. But still, it makes no reference to the low-level sfc feature of Gaston, which the models are still initializing and pointing almost southwestwards.
Thank you MLC. I do see a broad spinning in that area.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5588
91L certainly has no dry air worries anytime soon. It's biggest nearterm inhibitor is some shear.
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Quoting StormW:


I know what that's like.
Luckily mine isn't as hard (yet) as yours was.

So, how ya' been Storm?
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1984. hcubed
Quoting Legion:


And it is recorded all here for posterity:

Link


And if stormtop was such a great forecaster, why did he stop posting under that name?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
A. Yes.

Sure! I wish I have had the time, got loads of algebra homework to do.


Yeah, I had Algebra homework too, got it done earlier though. :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32067
Quoting kmanislander:


I fully expect that tomorrow morning I will wake up and Gaston will be putting on a show again. It's weired how when night time comes he fades away, that's when he should be blowing up.

Still, I stand by my original thinking that if he is going to organize it will come after 75 West.



Don't have your knowledge K-Man, just a laymans gut feel from watching storms progress over the years (yes, my abode is only about 450 feet from GOM surfline) - but that system has surprise written all over it for central A... stay safe..
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Quoting XL:


I wish he would hurry up and decide what he is going to do so I can decide what to do. I am supposed to be going off island on Saturday.


You will know by Thursday whether to leave or not.
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I didn't realize the center was still so close to us. That explains it -
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1978. lennit
yea Ok you will see .. tell me how Igor will come west toward the US.. I keep waiting for the neg NAO pattern as advertisted to take effect.. has yet to happen..EVERY global model smells the weakness in 5 days or so around 60 W..the trof once again knocks down heights in Sub-T ridge and then is reinforced after that the NE has seen nothing anomalous low after another
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1977. Vero1
Quoting kmanislander:
Gaston is a contrarian teaser : flare up during the heat of the day and die down at night.

I can't stand it anymore LOL



Needs a Full Moon!
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Quoting angiest:


Sorry, I was referring to Hispaniola. :)


Ah, okay.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Poll time!

Q: Should I or Should I not make a blog entry?

A. Yes
B. No

LOL!
A. Yes.

Sure! I wish I have had the time, got loads of algebra homework to do.
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1973. breald
Quoting PcolaDan:


His first hotel is here. :)


Does he still live in FLA?
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Quoting centex:
Some of these area's north of last wave have already had more than 6 inches.



I live in Fort Worth...Had a really strong band earlier, lots, and I mean LOTS, of rain.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32067
Quoting kmanislander:


I fully expect that tomorrow morning I will wake up and Gaston will be putting on a show again. It's weired how when night time comes he fades away, that's when he should be blowing up.

Still, I stand by my original thinking that if he is going to organize it will come after 75 West.
Agreed. The John Hope Rule.
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1969. XL
Quoting kmanislander:


I fully expect that tomorrow morning I will wake up and Gaston will be putting on a show again. It's weired how when night time comes he fades away, that's when he should be blowing up.

Still, I stand by my original thinking that if he is going to organize it will come after 75 West.


I wish he would hurry up and decide what he is going to do so I can decide what to do. I am supposed to be going off island on Saturday.
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1968. breald
Quoting KanKunKid:


That's his restaurant. This was his inspiration for the song.


oh ok. Judging by his song it sounds like a fun place.
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1967. angiest
Quoting KoritheMan:


David never crossed Jamaica:



Sorry, I was referring to Hispaniola. :)
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1966. scott39
exGaston 16.8N 66.3W per tropical Atlantic. The convection looks like its being blown off the center.
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1965. centex
Some of these area's north of last wave have already had more than 6 inches.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Poll time!

Q: Should I or Should I not make a blog entry?

A. Yes
B. No

LOL!


Yes.
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Quoting btwntx08:
hydrus yea it was pretty rough got a gust of 71 right at my house


glad you be ok.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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