Hermine drenching Texas; Gaston's remains less organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 07, 2010

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Tropical Storm Hermine hit the Mexican coast 40 miles south of the Texas border at 9:30 pm EDT last night, with 60 mph sustained winds. Top winds observed in Texas from the storm were 50 mph with gusts to 59 mph at Port Isabel near the Mexican border, and winds at Brownsville hit 45 mph, gusting to 69 mph. Harlingen had the highest gust observed from Hermine, 72 mph, and local storm reports indicate that half of the city lost power and a roof caved in on an apartment complex, with no injuries. Heavy rains have fallen along a 30-mile wide stretch of the Mexican and Texas coast, with 1.41" reported thus far in Harlingen, 3.71" at Brownsville, and 2.00" at Corpus Christi. Radar estimated rainfall amounts (Figure 3) exceed four inches along most of the Lower Texas coast, with maximum amounts near eleven inches twenty miles north of Brownsville.


Figure 1. Radar image of Hermine at landfall.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hermine at 12:45pm EDT Monday September 6, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Hermine became a tropical depression at 11pm Sunday night, and intensified into a 65 mph tropical storm in just 21 hours, an extremely fast intensification rate. It turns out that the southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, where Hermine formed, is prone to these sort of rapidly intensifying tropical storms. This region produced two similar rapidly intensifying storms in 2007, Humberto and Lorenzo. Since 6-hourly position records of Atlantic hurricanes began in 1970, Hurricane Humberto holds the record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). The curvature and topography of the land surrounding the Bay of Campeche help induce a counter-clockwise spin to the air over the region, which helps get tropical storms spinning up unusually quickly. Helping the spin-up process yesterday for Hermine were the very warm 30°C waters, low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and moist atmosphere.


Figure 3. Morning radar-estimated rainfall for Hermine.

Forecast for Hermine
Heavy rain and isolated tornadoes will continue across southern and central Texas today and tomorrow. Hermine is expected to accelerate northward today, limiting the potential for damaging floods along its future path. The storm's rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions affecting Central Texas.

Gaston's remains less organized
Dry air has significantly disrupted the remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, which are now over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands and Puerto Rico. Morning visible satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains no longer have a well-defined surface circulation, though there is still some spin. Latest radar out of Martinique and Puerto Rico show a few heavy rain showers moving through the islands, but no organization to the showers. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. None of the computer models show Gaston redeveloping, and NHC has downgraded the odds of development to 10%. I think the odds should be higher than this, perhaps 30%. Gaston's remains will be disrupted some on Wednesday, when they will encounter the high terrain of Hispaniola.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are two tropical waves off the coast of Africa that NHC is giving a 10% chances of developing into tropical depressions by Thursday. The models are fairly unanimous in predicting development of one or more tropical waves off the coast of Africa 3 - 7 days from now. The next storm will be called Igor.

Eastern Pacific Tropical Depression 11E kills 44 in Guatemala
In the Eastern Pacific, heavy rains from Tropical Depression 11E killed at least 44 people in Guatemala over the weekend. At least 56 are injured, and 16 missing. The heavy rains triggered fifteen landslides that hit portions of the Inter-American Highway, burying a number of vehicles and a bus. Guatemala is still recovering from the impacts of Tropical Storm Agatha, which killed 287 people in the country and did over $1 billion in damage.


Figure 4. Satellite image from Friday, September 3, 2010, showing Tropical Depression 11E over Guatemala. Image credit: NASA.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Next post
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting BobinTampa:


Oh, in that case I take it back. He's doing a great service. 100 people now know that tropical systems are rainy and windy.


For an individual storm chaser, live, that is not bad. Most of their views come on news, on video specials, etc.
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Quoting Jax82:
Hermine over Texas, Gaston near PR.
I still think Hermine looks exceptional given her current position...

for a TS she is a blowin pretty hard...
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Here's some video of the conditions in the island and the United states from Hurricane Earl...
flooded street

Storm chaser video in North Carolina from Hurricane Earl




That's good footage...
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Quoting Orcasystems:


That is very disrespectful... and I bet any real Storm Chaser would be offended by being put in the same group as him.

What is should say is "Over Due Darwin award received"


would it be more appropriate to use wannabe storm chaser instead
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Quoting ozzyman236:
i agree doug there are some jealous people on this blog what did brian do to them...they should be saying great things about him...i know for a FACE WHARbrian did last night was the first its never been done before...no storm chaser has attempted to chase the eye of a hurricane...brian did a great job and should be put in the guiness book of world records for what he did...he risked his life for the people could see what the eye of a storm was all about and he could of died doing that...a tornado could of easily came down on him while he was penetrating the eye...great job brian and i know lots of people appreciate you...



If I may ask...What is a FACE WHAR?
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Gaston is hitting the moisture. There are more high clouds in front of Gaston already.
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904. Jax82
Hermine over Texas, Gaston near PR.
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Quoting StormW:


And, the Canadians are counting it as a hurricane hit.


Doesn't the latest ECMWF turn 91L sharply north at about 60W?
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


LOL!!! That was quite possibly the funniest post I've read on here lately...what a great twisted mental image that brought up!


Leave it to Conch...he's twisted like that!
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Quoting FloridaHeat:
oz will get his headline one day unfortunately it will read:

storm chaser dies while chasing storm


That is very disrespectful... and I bet any real Storm Chaser would be offended by being put in the same group as him.

What is should say is "Over Due Darwin award received"
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Quoting Grothar:
Ex-Gaston building a lot of cold cloud tops as shown by the yellow dots appearing South of PR. Don't usually see that in a dying system.



Maybe is alive but not a single drop of rain here in Puerto Rico.
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Quoting ConchHondros:


I think he has Oz in a hole and just told him to put the lotion in the basket, then he does that dance with JFV's under the sea shower curtain...yeah...man crush doesnt go far enough


LOL!!! That was quite possibly the funniest post I've read on here lately...what a great twisted mental image that brought up!
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Found it, yep Looks like a tornado in their
just north of DFW heading North
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ok, so if I understand you correctly, I think you agree with his analysis given the NAO and MJO?

I think even you touched on the same point that this season is far from over.
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Quoting futuremet:


That is better to believe, since you were with him. Now, let's end all of this Oz drama.


Agreed...
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Here's some video of the conditions in the island and the United states from Hurricane Earl...
flooded street

Storm chaser video in North Carolina from Hurricane Earl


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Quoting FloridaHeat:


over 100


Oh, in that case I take it back. He's doing a great service. 100 people now know that tropical systems are rainy and windy.
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Quoting BobinTampa:


I'll give it a shot. I'll be sure to bring booze as well.

just out of curiousity, how many viewers does Oz get?


over 100
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Quoting FloridaHeat:
oz will get his headline one day unfortunately it will read:

storm chaser dies while chasing storm


Amen!
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Quoting FLdewey:

LMAO... clearly you're not a defense attorney... because you just chucked your client under the legal bus.


Well, now, that could go both ways. He did not violate any "open container while driving" laws under the above statement. However, depending on how much he drank prior to operating his motor vehicle, he may be guilty of a DWI.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


also made landfall in Nova Scotia



did it all so made a vary close point land fall a long the NC coast they all so had 80+ mph wind gust
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


also made landfall in Nova Scotia



did it all so made a vary close point land fall a long the NC coast they all so had 80+ mph wind gust
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Quoting BobinTampa:



A garden hose and a leaf blower would have provided the same dramatics


Why dont you test your theory then Bob and see how many viewers you get and/or how many posts are directed at you.


I'll give it a shot. I'll be sure to bring booze as well.

just out of curiousity, how many viewers does Oz get?
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Quoting futuremet:


Since Cape Cod was affected, it was a fish storm


Mardy FISH would probably agree! Except he didn't like the wind.
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Quoting FloridaHeat:


no just trying to say technically he wasnt drinking and driving he was drinking then driving


Well, that's fine, so long as he wasn't legally drunk.... :)
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Quoting Tazmanian:
? for dr m was Earl a fish storm too you?


You are right Taz... Earl was not a fish storm, and anyone who says it was, obviously has no clue what they are talking about... so calm down :)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Earl wasn't a fish. Made landfall as a Category 3 in the islands, caused pretty bad damage.


also made landfall in Nova Scotia
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Thats a lie. I was his ground support for seven hoirs last night from the time he first got into the wall and then for the next 6 and ahalf hours while we stayed ahead of hte storm moving up Hwy 77. Oz didn't have a=y booze yesterday at all. This whole thread started when he took a sip of scotch while chasing Earl. Oz drove for 15 hours yesterday to intercept Earl and then stayed in the right front quad for for 7 more hrs while it moved north. There was no booze involved. Thats a fact. Anyone who says otherwise is liar and rumor monger. Pure and simple.


That is better to believe, since you were with him. Now, let's end all of this Oz drama.
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Quoting Tazmanian:
guys stop saying Earl was a fish storm it was not a fish storm at all


Earl wasn't a fish. Made landfall as a Category 3 in the islands, caused pretty bad damage.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
guys stop saying Earl was a fish storm it was not a fish storm at all


Earl was a tremendous fish storm and i appreciate earl for reeling me so much fish, and it provided some sprinkles here in NC which was much needed, and a cool breeze.
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Quoting futuremet:


Since Cape Cod was affected, it was a fish storm


lol
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Thats a lie. I was his ground support for seven hoirs last night from the time he first got into the wall and then for the next 6 and ahalf hours while we stayed ahead of hte storm moving up Hwy 77. Oz didn't have a=y booze yesterday at all. This whole thread started when he took a sip of scotch while chasing Earl. Oz drove for 15 hours yesterday to intercept Earl and then stayed in the right front quad for for 7 more hrs while it moved north. There was no booze involved. Thats a fact. Anyone who says otherwise is liar and rumor monger. Pure and simple.


i am talking about earl i did not see him drink last night
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Just outside of Burleson and Forth Worth
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Storm,

Based on the excerpt you posted from Bastardi, do you agree with his analysis regarding the CVS and remaining part of this atlantic hurricane season?
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Quoting futuremet:
Since all of you are talking about him, CycloneOZ must be the best or the most notorious storm chaser in the world...


Just ask him if you dont belive ummm whats his name
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Quoting TampaTom:


Dude, you are major league man-crushing here...


I think he has Oz in a hole and just told him to put the lotion in the basket, then he does that dance with JFV's under the sea shower curtain...yeah...man crush doesnt go far enough
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Quoting Grothar:
Ex-Gaston building a lot of cold cloud tops as shown by the yellow dots appearing South of PR. Don't usually see that in a dying system.




It continues to build energy and is beginning to leave the graveyard of the Caribbean? Also, plenty of warm untapped Caribbean waters ahead.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
guys stop saying Earl was a fish storm it was not a fish storm at all


Since Cape Cod was affected, it was a fish storm
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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