Hermine drenching Texas; Gaston's remains less organized
Tropical Storm Hermine hit the Mexican coast 40 miles south of the Texas border at 9:30 pm EDT last night, with 60 mph sustained winds. Top winds observed in Texas from the storm were 50 mph with gusts to 59 mph at Port Isabel near the Mexican border, and winds at Brownsville hit 45 mph, gusting to 69 mph. Harlingen had the highest gust observed from Hermine, 72 mph, and local storm reports indicate that half of the city lost power and a roof caved in on an apartment complex, with no injuries. Heavy rains have fallen along a 30-mile wide stretch of the Mexican and Texas coast, with 1.41" reported thus far in Harlingen, 3.71" at Brownsville, and 2.00" at Corpus Christi. Radar estimated rainfall amounts (Figure 3) exceed four inches along most of the Lower Texas coast, with maximum amounts near eleven inches twenty miles north of Brownsville.
Figure 1. Radar image of Hermine at landfall.
Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hermine at 12:45pm EDT Monday September 6, 2010. Image credit: NASA.
Hermine became a tropical depression at 11pm Sunday night, and intensified into a 65 mph tropical storm in just 21 hours, an extremely fast intensification rate. It turns out that the southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, where Hermine formed, is prone to these sort of rapidly intensifying tropical storms. This region produced two similar rapidly intensifying storms in 2007, Humberto and Lorenzo. Since 6-hourly position records of Atlantic hurricanes began in 1970, Hurricane Humberto holds the record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). The curvature and topography of the land surrounding the Bay of Campeche help induce a counter-clockwise spin to the air over the region, which helps get tropical storms spinning up unusually quickly. Helping the spin-up process yesterday for Hermine were the very warm 30°C waters, low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and moist atmosphere.
Figure 3. Morning radar-estimated rainfall for Hermine.
Forecast for Hermine
Heavy rain and isolated tornadoes will continue across southern and central Texas today and tomorrow. Hermine is expected to accelerate northward today, limiting the potential for damaging floods along its future path. The storm's rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions affecting Central Texas.
Gaston's remains less organized
Dry air has significantly disrupted the remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, which are now over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands and Puerto Rico. Morning visible satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains no longer have a well-defined surface circulation, though there is still some spin. Latest radar out of Martinique and Puerto Rico show a few heavy rain showers moving through the islands, but no organization to the showers. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. None of the computer models show Gaston redeveloping, and NHC has downgraded the odds of development to 10%. I think the odds should be higher than this, perhaps 30%. Gaston's remains will be disrupted some on Wednesday, when they will encounter the high terrain of Hispaniola.
Elsewhere in the tropics
There are two tropical waves off the coast of Africa that NHC is giving a 10% chances of developing into tropical depressions by Thursday. The models are fairly unanimous in predicting development of one or more tropical waves off the coast of Africa 3 - 7 days from now. The next storm will be called Igor.
Eastern Pacific Tropical Depression 11E kills 44 in Guatemala
In the Eastern Pacific, heavy rains from Tropical Depression 11E killed at least 44 people in Guatemala over the weekend. At least 56 are injured, and 16 missing. The heavy rains triggered fifteen landslides that hit portions of the Inter-American Highway, burying a number of vehicles and a bus. Guatemala is still recovering from the impacts of Tropical Storm Agatha, which killed 287 people in the country and did over $1 billion in damage.
Figure 4. Satellite image from Friday, September 3, 2010, showing Tropical Depression 11E over Guatemala. Image credit: NASA.
"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.
Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.
Next post
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 — Blog Index
Link
Link
Link
Link
I've had it in my head that speed has been in an issue. He has moved in tandem with that moisture-robbing feature west/north - the NHC has attributed that southerly flow to those features if I read that the 8:05 right. If he slows, perhaps he can't get that convection to stay at home overhead and get the tropical engine running.
Also
1. Central Texas has been identified as the most flash-flood prone area in the United States by the National Weather Service.
2. Texas holds 6 of 12 world record rainfall rates in 24 hours or less - source United States Geological Survey (USGS).
18 is a good bet, imo.
Thrall, September 9-10, 1921. That storm has some US records on it. Near world records too!
We were lucky up here, as it slid south at the end. It was due to come in right at the county line, at least that was what they were predicting.
Andrew was my very first hurricane.
Knew a couple of girls like that. But you're right. Nearly everything perfect. Personally, I think it's still trying to choke on/out dry air.
I still think we should wait until he gets to the Western Caribbean before deliverying the eulogy. The area he is in now is not known for weak systems getting organized.
91L Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
Looks like a good agreement for the moment.
Have a good sleep StormW. Thanks.
Yeah. I'm not seeing Hispaniola as a problem. And, that if he can slow down, we might see development closer to Jamaica, maybe just south.
If he were to interact with another TW or disturbance I would expect development, but it's just him, all lonely and dry. xD
Yeah, maybe he is damaged beyond repair?
True, lets give him a few days and watch him, besides, there isn't any other named storm around. XD
Bye for now.
I'd say you need intervention, but I'm not that far behind. The first thing I do when I wake up is check the tropics.
Here's my weather site. Link
Good night!
Thanks, K'man, and all! Y'all hold the fort down! Have a good sleep!
MLC <------------------out for some shuteye!
14 is my number as well. We'll see. Out for now.
STAY AWAY FROM JAMAICA. You're not welcomed here. When I wake up tomorrow morning I expect to see you gone.
Well...
Night then!
But I'll be lurking. :D
it will depend on the timing of trofs comming off the east coast
91L looks healthy
NEVER too late...
I wonder what happened that they decided to post an special one?
Maybe it been yellow was a whoops? XD
Maybe so.
I would say watch it, models change and besides, if this one develops it would be Igor, the scary name of 2010. XD
yea
ABNT20 KNHC 080247
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1050 PM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE...LOCATED INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNWOOD.
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
LOW DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE REMNANTS OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF PONCE PUERTO
RICO. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 450 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS REMAINS MINIMAL. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Viewing: 2101 - 2151
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 — Blog Index