Major flooding in Austin from Hermine
Major flooding is occurring in the Austin, Texas region after Tropical Storm Hermine dumped an estimated 10 - 15 inches of rain over the past 24 hours. The flash flood warning for Austin from the National Weather Service at 4am this morning summarized the danger:
"Areas along I-35 and the Balcones Escarpment in and around the Austin Metro area will continue to experience a very dangerous flash flood event over the next few hours. Numerous evacuations and high water rescues have already been reported by the media and law enforcement personnel."
As wunderground's Dr. Rob Carver reports in his blog this morning, hardest hit was the area ten miles north-northwest of Austin, where an NWS cooperative station measured 10.11" of rain yesterday. The rains have swollen the South Fork of the San Gabriel River at Georgetown, Texas to 50-year flood heights.
Hermine has dissipated, but its heavy rains live on, and are now affecting the Dallas/Fort Worth region, where 1 - 3 inch rainfall amounts have been common. Hermine's rains are still lingering over the hard-hit Austin area, but should remain under one inch for the remainder of the morning. However, this afternoon, additional significant rains are possible near Austin as the sun's heat drives thunderstorm development in the very moist airmass over Central Texas.
Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Austin, Texas area shows that over fifteen inches of rain may have fallen in the region ten miles north-northwest of the city.
Gaston's remains no longer a threat
Dry air has significantly disrupted the remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, which are now over the Dominican Republic. NHC is now giving Gaston a 0% chance of developing, and no models are calling for development. It appears Gaston is finally dead.
Invest 91 off the coast of Africa
A large, well-organized tropical wave (91L) is just off the coast of Africa, near the Cape Verdes Islands, and is bringing sustained winds of 30 mph this morning to Praia in the southeast Cape Verdes. 91L is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear will decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Thursday. Water temperatures are warm, 28°C, and 91L has plenty of spin. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is well north of 91L, and should not be an impediment to development over the next few days. The models are pretty unanimous about developing 91L into Tropical Storm Igor sometime in the next 1 - 3 days. NHC is giving 91L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. The GFDL model predicts 91L will be Hurricane Igor five days from now. The storm will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting 91L several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 10 days from now. History shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at 91L's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico, and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors a continuation of the sort of tracks we saw for Danielle, Earl, and Fiona, with threats to the northern Lesser Antilles, Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Canada.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 91L (Igor?)
Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 5 - 6 days from now.
Death toll in Guatemala from Tropical Depression 11E rises to 54
In the Eastern Pacific, heavy rains from Tropical Depression 11E have killed at least 54 people in Guatemala, with many more missing and feared dead. The heavy rains triggered nearly 200 landslides and collapses, causing damages near $500 million. Fifteen landslides hit portions of the Inter-American Highway, burying a number of vehicles and a bus. Tropical Depression 11E formed on September 3, moved over Mexico and Guatemala, and dissipated by the next day. Remnants from the depression may have played a role in the formation of Tropical Storm Hermine in the Gulf of Mexico on September 5.
Guatemala is still recovering from the impacts of Tropical Storm Agatha, which killed 287 people in the country and did over $1 billion in damage in May. This September's heavy rains in Guatemala come on the heels of the rainiest August in Guatemala's history, according to preliminary data from the National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology (INSIVUMEH). Rain was more than 100% above average in many parts of the country, and more than 200% above average in some regions. September and October are historically Guatemala's rainiest months, and any additional tropical cyclones which affect the country can be expected to cause more serious flooding.
Figure 3. Satellite image from Friday, September 3, 2010, showing Tropical Depression 11E over Mexico and Guatemala. Image credit: NASA.
Next post
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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That is true.. I don't think the GFS will pan out, the EURO has nailed most storms this year and shows a nice ridge over Igor, steering close to home.
1998 for a comparison (again):
In a remarkable span of 35 days, starting on Aug. 19 and ending on Sept. 23, 10 named tropical cyclones formed. That's about a whole season's worth of activity crammed into a month. Four of them made landfall in the United States. In addition, Jeanne and Karl affected the Cape Verde Islands and Bermuda respectively, while three others passed near or over the Azores.
Will have to wait to see what happens.
Less total number than this year but high risk to the eastern seaboard.
Just throwing it out there....not my official opinion yet lol. I'll be playing with that idea later.
IMO the East Coast (NC northward) are still in a bit of danger from the CV storms. If these storms keep forming so far east then the GOM is in the clear. Any threat for the GOM is going to have to come from storms that form much closer to home.
Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, September 8th, with Video
You mean less than forecasted? We don't know how many storms there will be this year.
I figured I may as well ask about 2011 because so many people are already saying Igor will be a fish storm...he's only been designated for an hour or two. I figure they must have good crystal balls.
June 1, 2011 would be a good place.
240 hours thats 10 days get real....ok
if it showed a us hit in 10 days you would be all over it you get real ok?
the circulation appears to be centered back near oops... correction I mean 20 W
NOT 10 W
Link
100% of hurricanes are out to sea. If they weren't then they wouldn't be hurricanes.
Igor could be the one, the EURO has been consistent!
2011 has a good chance of being more active and a better chance we see more landfalls. The year after a major pattern change(El Nino to La Nina) is when tropics tend to favor more landfalls and sometimes just as many named storms if not more. Next year we could be in neutral conditions which makes a season more nail biting most of the time.
How it is near 25w, not 10w.
How is that any different than the other half that worship the models only when they show a recurve?
yet when they show a storm hitting land, well they are just crazy and its too far out to tell
3 Hurricanes
3 Major Hurricanes
20 Tropical Storms
dont put me in that group please i am just showing what one model showed.
After my trip to the future tomorrow, I'll let you know.
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