Major flooding in Austin from Hermine
Major flooding is occurring in the Austin, Texas region after Tropical Storm Hermine dumped an estimated 10 - 15 inches of rain over the past 24 hours. The flash flood warning for Austin from the National Weather Service at 4am this morning summarized the danger:
"Areas along I-35 and the Balcones Escarpment in and around the Austin Metro area will continue to experience a very dangerous flash flood event over the next few hours. Numerous evacuations and high water rescues have already been reported by the media and law enforcement personnel."
As wunderground's Dr. Rob Carver reports in his blog this morning, hardest hit was the area ten miles north-northwest of Austin, where an NWS cooperative station measured 10.11" of rain yesterday. The rains have swollen the South Fork of the San Gabriel River at Georgetown, Texas to 50-year flood heights.
Hermine has dissipated, but its heavy rains live on, and are now affecting the Dallas/Fort Worth region, where 1 - 3 inch rainfall amounts have been common. Hermine's rains are still lingering over the hard-hit Austin area, but should remain under one inch for the remainder of the morning. However, this afternoon, additional significant rains are possible near Austin as the sun's heat drives thunderstorm development in the very moist airmass over Central Texas.
Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Austin, Texas area shows that over fifteen inches of rain may have fallen in the region ten miles north-northwest of the city.
Gaston's remains no longer a threat
Dry air has significantly disrupted the remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, which are now over the Dominican Republic. NHC is now giving Gaston a 0% chance of developing, and no models are calling for development. It appears Gaston is finally dead.
Invest 91 off the coast of Africa
A large, well-organized tropical wave (91L) is just off the coast of Africa, near the Cape Verdes Islands, and is bringing sustained winds of 30 mph this morning to Praia in the southeast Cape Verdes. 91L is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear will decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Thursday. Water temperatures are warm, 28°C, and 91L has plenty of spin. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is well north of 91L, and should not be an impediment to development over the next few days. The models are pretty unanimous about developing 91L into Tropical Storm Igor sometime in the next 1 - 3 days. NHC is giving 91L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. The GFDL model predicts 91L will be Hurricane Igor five days from now. The storm will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting 91L several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 10 days from now. History shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at 91L's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico, and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors a continuation of the sort of tracks we saw for Danielle, Earl, and Fiona, with threats to the northern Lesser Antilles, Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Canada.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 91L (Igor?)
Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 5 - 6 days from now.
Death toll in Guatemala from Tropical Depression 11E rises to 54
In the Eastern Pacific, heavy rains from Tropical Depression 11E have killed at least 54 people in Guatemala, with many more missing and feared dead. The heavy rains triggered nearly 200 landslides and collapses, causing damages near $500 million. Fifteen landslides hit portions of the Inter-American Highway, burying a number of vehicles and a bus. Tropical Depression 11E formed on September 3, moved over Mexico and Guatemala, and dissipated by the next day. Remnants from the depression may have played a role in the formation of Tropical Storm Hermine in the Gulf of Mexico on September 5.
Guatemala is still recovering from the impacts of Tropical Storm Agatha, which killed 287 people in the country and did over $1 billion in damage in May. This September's heavy rains in Guatemala come on the heels of the rainiest August in Guatemala's history, according to preliminary data from the National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology (INSIVUMEH). Rain was more than 100% above average in many parts of the country, and more than 200% above average in some regions. September and October are historically Guatemala's rainiest months, and any additional tropical cyclones which affect the country can be expected to cause more serious flooding.
Figure 3. Satellite image from Friday, September 3, 2010, showing Tropical Depression 11E over Mexico and Guatemala. Image credit: NASA.
Next post
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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But it's 10 days; so at the very least it would be given a low level of confidence.
Thanks Storm W.
We may not know almost up to zero hour. We thought Earl could hit the Outer Banks directly up until the last 12 hours or so.
Had to make him sound like a monster!
I didn't get that thought from Bastardi he hasn't even mentioned next hurricane season yet??
Quoting 560.
Exactly the point I am trying to make. Still think the models have too much emphasis in the recurvature. Seen it time and time again.
Possible
lol.
yeah, it will interesting to see what happens, however i believe that the SE circulation will dominate
I am still waiting on
Not really. Just go to intrade.com
Perhaps like 1996
NOW THAT IS A NAME I CAN RESPECT.
Igor has been christened in the Atlantic to the EAST of the Cape Verde Islands, and this is the kind of long-tracked system that in 10-14 days could very well be threatening the U.S. It's the pattern that leads me to believe that, as in 7-10 days the central Atlantic trough should lift enough to allow it through. We didn't have to wait long for our burst to begin, though one may argue, it has never ended. This is the 6th named storm within 20 days, and gives us 9 by the midpoint.. interesting.. that 18-21 may not be looking to bad.
Yesterday, the associate head wrestling coach here, Cody Sanderson, was giving me grief about wimpy storm names. I told him I had nothing to do with naming storms, but his complaint is violent storms need violent names. Why should one take seriously a storm with a name that you cant pronounce, or is less than tough sounding? Obviously, this was all tongue in cheek, but Igor is a name that conjures up images of a monster, which is what this should be.
Ivan was a great name too, but it was replaced by Igor.
That is not to be confused with Al Gore.
Keep an eye on what is going on east of the southern Windwards. This should develop within five days and is probably a threat before Igor.
I will be posting on the three types of storms we are seeing this year in the hurricane season a little later.
In the meantime, the Long Ranger plays with the MEI, the Big Dog plays with the MJO and the free site scares the daylights out of everyone as I explain why we will all be freezing to death in the winters of 2012-2013 through 2014-2015.
Igor may be the farthest east storm since Donna in 1960.
Ciao for now.
joe b
Uhh, he must have missed Christine then.
That's kinda sad. I hate to see people lose hope. Maybe he'll progress westward and develop in the EPAC.
uh..........that's a cool picture you got goin' there.....lol.....really!
Erin
12Z CMC...
Thanx but can you show me thoe EURO track update I can't open it or give me the address if you please.
That's the spirit. Keep thinking positively.
Storm has been talking of this area all morning.
Wow! If I had only know the effect a Limerick would have on the blog....should have post a nice weather related haiku instead.
Re, Igor, asking where's it gonna hit? is like are we there yet? when you're leaving FL for CA -- in a car.
Finally, is Gaston dead, really?!
I think so to with the highest ACE (over 50) since IVAN the Terrible
Yeah, Storm and PRweather talked about this area a few days ago, i think it has a chance to affect from FL to NC, this is the one to watch
Jeff, perhaps I misunderstood lol. If you were just talking about the word "idea", then I apologize.
So glad you came thru this relatively OK. was watching this in the early hours with the night shift... totally amazing looking storm, but really scary how it straight lined up I35 like that! I hope as the damages get tallied, that they are all money damages and no lives lost.
I can't open it there's a problem but instead of show me the EURO tracked if you please
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