Major flooding in Austin from Hermine

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:24 PM GMT on September 08, 2010

Share this Blog
5
+

Major flooding is occurring in the Austin, Texas region after Tropical Storm Hermine dumped an estimated 10 - 15 inches of rain over the past 24 hours. The flash flood warning for Austin from the National Weather Service at 4am this morning summarized the danger:

"Areas along I-35 and the Balcones Escarpment in and around the Austin Metro area will continue to experience a very dangerous flash flood event over the next few hours. Numerous evacuations and high water rescues have already been reported by the media and law enforcement personnel."

As wunderground's Dr. Rob Carver reports in his blog this morning, hardest hit was the area ten miles north-northwest of Austin, where an NWS cooperative station measured 10.11" of rain yesterday. The rains have swollen the South Fork of the San Gabriel River at Georgetown, Texas to 50-year flood heights.

Hermine has dissipated, but its heavy rains live on, and are now affecting the Dallas/Fort Worth region, where 1 - 3 inch rainfall amounts have been common. Hermine's rains are still lingering over the hard-hit Austin area, but should remain under one inch for the remainder of the morning. However, this afternoon, additional significant rains are possible near Austin as the sun's heat drives thunderstorm development in the very moist airmass over Central Texas.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Austin, Texas area shows that over fifteen inches of rain may have fallen in the region ten miles north-northwest of the city.

Gaston's remains no longer a threat
Dry air has significantly disrupted the remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, which are now over the Dominican Republic. NHC is now giving Gaston a 0% chance of developing, and no models are calling for development. It appears Gaston is finally dead.

Invest 91 off the coast of Africa
A large, well-organized tropical wave (91L) is just off the coast of Africa, near the Cape Verdes Islands, and is bringing sustained winds of 30 mph this morning to Praia in the southeast Cape Verdes. 91L is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear will decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Thursday. Water temperatures are warm, 28°C, and 91L has plenty of spin. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is well north of 91L, and should not be an impediment to development over the next few days. The models are pretty unanimous about developing 91L into Tropical Storm Igor sometime in the next 1 - 3 days. NHC is giving 91L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. The GFDL model predicts 91L will be Hurricane Igor five days from now. The storm will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting 91L several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 10 days from now. History shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at 91L's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico, and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors a continuation of the sort of tracks we saw for Danielle, Earl, and Fiona, with threats to the northern Lesser Antilles, Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Canada.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 91L (Igor?)

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 5 - 6 days from now.

Death toll in Guatemala from Tropical Depression 11E rises to 54
In the Eastern Pacific, heavy rains from Tropical Depression 11E have killed at least 54 people in Guatemala, with many more missing and feared dead. The heavy rains triggered nearly 200 landslides and collapses, causing damages near $500 million. Fifteen landslides hit portions of the Inter-American Highway, burying a number of vehicles and a bus. Tropical Depression 11E formed on September 3, moved over Mexico and Guatemala, and dissipated by the next day. Remnants from the depression may have played a role in the formation of Tropical Storm Hermine in the Gulf of Mexico on September 5.

Guatemala is still recovering from the impacts of Tropical Storm Agatha, which killed 287 people in the country and did over $1 billion in damage in May. This September's heavy rains in Guatemala come on the heels of the rainiest August in Guatemala's history, according to preliminary data from the National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology (INSIVUMEH). Rain was more than 100% above average in many parts of the country, and more than 200% above average in some regions. September and October are historically Guatemala's rainiest months, and any additional tropical cyclones which affect the country can be expected to cause more serious flooding.


Figure 3. Satellite image from Friday, September 3, 2010, showing Tropical Depression 11E over Mexico and Guatemala. Image credit: NASA.

Next post
I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2531 - 2481

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62Blog Index

000
ABNT20 KNHC 090553
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE...CURRENTLY LOCATED
INLAND ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH NO DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
NEAR THE WESTERNMOST CAPE HAS WEAKENED. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
BECOME ABSORBED BY TROPICAL STORM IGOR LATER TODAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON IGOR ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON IGOR ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
I have a question. What might this model be showing in the GOM? I know there's an ULL by Cuba. Could that cause these winds and waves?

Just loop the "wind" and the next three "waves" to see what I mean. Link


I'm not sure. I think perhaps this is a flawed run? True, we have a longwave trough digging down into the Gulf, but it shouldn't cause winds of that magnitude. This is September, not November.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nite all...check back in tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


It's more like impossible at this point.


Agreed.....Hey Kori!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AtHome, too right. So far we have been relatively fortunate... aside from Alex, we've had mostly low winds at landfall. Not that the rains haven't been prodigious...

Anyway, I'm heading off to bed. I've got to be up again at 5 a.m. . . .. lol

Night, all!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2526. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
I have a question. What might this model be showing in the GOM? I know there's an ULL by Cuba. Could that cause these winds and waves?

Just loop the "wind" and the next three "waves" to see what I mean. Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I hope the strong ones go out to sea too. If we have to be hit (we meaning any of us) I hope for a weak one too. This flair up by the Windwards has my attention now. Kind of hard to make it out of the Caribbean or the gulf without affecting someone. :(


It's more like impossible at this point.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah, I'm looking in for the first time in DAYS.... it's been pretty hectic this week. I'm noticing Igor the dreaded one is out there, potentially capable of becoming the monster we were "name-casting".... lol

Also the formation potential in the Gulf seems to have popped. I keep hoping that the really powerful ones stay out to sea, and if something is going to make landfall it stays weak.

Amazing to be at the I storm (#9) on 9/9/10......


I hope the strong ones go out to sea too. If we have to be hit (we meaning any of us) I hope for a weak one too. This flair up by the Windwards has my attention now. Kind of hard to make it out of the Caribbean or the gulf without affecting someone. :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Maybe this will help....hope it shows up.



Wow that was really close!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2520. xcool
crazy nam
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Quoting xcool:


240hrs long ways out..


Hey xcool. :) Does it seem the models are moving that too slow? It does to me. Just wondering. Guess it could be weak steering currents.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Igor is not at 13.8n.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2517. Bielle
Curious that between 21:15 and 03:45 UTC Sept 8-9, the intensity of almost everything across the whole width of the loop just dies here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rb.html
I thought things usually intensified overnight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Maybe this will help....hope it shows up.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Evening Baha. :) Still trying to catch up on things. My timing's awful. Lol.
Yeah, I'm looking in for the first time in DAYS.... it's been pretty hectic this week. I'm noticing Igor the dreaded one is out there, potentially capable of becoming the monster we were "name-casting".... lol

Also the formation potential in the Gulf seems to have popped. I keep hoping that the really powerful ones stay out to sea, and if something is going to make landfall it stays weak.

Amazing to be at the I storm (#9) on 9/9/10......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS takes under islands thru yucatan then stronger.

CMC - NOGAPS takes system thru islands much weaker.

NAM stalls for long time! LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Kinda like saying Texas was just affected by Rita because she made landfall in La. Ah well, we have a knack for sharing our misery. :( The point of landfall is definitely important but these things affect a lot of people and places.


Oh really? I thought it made landfall in between? All I know is I will never go through an evac like that again. I will stay home first lol! Not really, I will leave for a cat 5.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Couillon:
My hats off to Texans,They Know their storm history and learned from it.I hope all is well,and stays that way.


Thanks Couillon! I am a weather nerd and have been through Alicia, Allison, Ike, and all in between. You do learn a lot. Ike taught me to not take the little things for granted like electricity and the bowling alley! lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2511. xcool


240hrs long ways out..
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY
BUT A SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER....AND IGOR COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
One of the nice things about living in Nassau is that it can be raining outside for practically no reason at all.... lol



Basically just night-time cooling has been inducing rain showers, some heavy, off and on for the last 4-6 hours.

I wonder if what's left of Gaston will bring us any unsettled weather later this week? It's been hot and steamy here o'late... typical September wx...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You wont YAWN when you see long range CMC

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening / morning all....

Anybody still around???


Evening Baha. :) Still trying to catch up on things. My timing's awful. Lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2506. JRRP
40mph
IGOR REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...AND MOVING LITTLE
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...3 KM/HR
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PtownBryan:


Texas was technically just affected by Hermine. And in 2008 we had Dolly, Edouard, and Ike.


Kinda like saying Texas was just affected by Rita because she made landfall in La. Ah well, we have a knack for sharing our misery. :( The point of landfall is definitely important but these things affect a lot of people and places.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening / morning all....

Anybody still around???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

The accepted use of "fish storm" is a storm that will not affect ANY LAND. It will only affect the fishes (silly, but there you go)
To say a storm is a Fish storm that will hit Bermuda, is a total contradiction.
You know that, right?


The latest SFWMD model plots have flopped like a fish. The pattern this year has been fish storms, but the odds may be changing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2502. xcool


cmc ngp to fl .gfs tx & la hmmm
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
My hats off to Texans,They Know their storm history and learned from it.I hope all is well,and stays that way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CoopNTexas:
Nothing has developed yet. No need to panic at a model that shows a landfall 340 hours from now.

Heck, i would rather see me in the cross hairs now than in the 3-day cone. LOL


true...like I said earlier. I'll believe it when I see it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
img

*Yawns*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2498. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Plus its the GFS.

Intersting run on CMC. Takes thru islands.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nothing has developed yet. No need to panic at a model that shows a landfall 340 hours from now.

Heck, i would rather see me in the cross hairs now than in the 3-day cone. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We do not need another hurricane in Houston/Galveston anytime soon. Some places are still reopening from Ike! We are still missing street signs from Ike in my suburb!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I call it TX because of track right through the state.
Where was official "landfall"as they call it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2492. xcool
hm
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Quoting Couillon:
Hi
But Texas just got hit by Hermine.
When is the last time they had 2 in one season?
just wonderin.


Texas was technically just affected by Hermine. And in 2008 we had Dolly, Edouard, and Ike.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txsweetpea:

Hello how ya been doing? We have been fortunate so far this year.


good.....yes we have.... :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Hi txsweetpea

Hello how ya been doing? We have been fortunate so far this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txsweetpea:

Definitely.....and horrible.


Hi txsweetpea
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Couillon:
Hi
But Texas just got hit by Hermine.
When is the last time they had 2 in one season?
just wonderin.


well, actually it made landfall in MX right....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:



hmmmm, that would be something wouldn't it.....

Definitely.....and horrible.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2485. xcool
can'not wait to seeing EURO
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Quoting xcool:



I don't like that xcool, too close for comfort!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CoopNTexas:
That would be landfall a few days before Rita anniversary! NO BUENO



hmmmm, that would be something wouldn't it.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi
But Texas just got hit by Hermine.
When is the last time they had 2 in one season?
just wonderin.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2531 - 2481

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
83 °F
Partly Cloudy