Major flooding in Austin from Hermine
Major flooding is occurring in the Austin, Texas region after Tropical Storm Hermine dumped an estimated 10 - 15 inches of rain over the past 24 hours. The flash flood warning for Austin from the National Weather Service at 4am this morning summarized the danger:
"Areas along I-35 and the Balcones Escarpment in and around the Austin Metro area will continue to experience a very dangerous flash flood event over the next few hours. Numerous evacuations and high water rescues have already been reported by the media and law enforcement personnel."
As wunderground's Dr. Rob Carver reports in his blog this morning, hardest hit was the area ten miles north-northwest of Austin, where an NWS cooperative station measured 10.11" of rain yesterday. The rains have swollen the South Fork of the San Gabriel River at Georgetown, Texas to 50-year flood heights.
Hermine has dissipated, but its heavy rains live on, and are now affecting the Dallas/Fort Worth region, where 1 - 3 inch rainfall amounts have been common. Hermine's rains are still lingering over the hard-hit Austin area, but should remain under one inch for the remainder of the morning. However, this afternoon, additional significant rains are possible near Austin as the sun's heat drives thunderstorm development in the very moist airmass over Central Texas.
Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Austin, Texas area shows that over fifteen inches of rain may have fallen in the region ten miles north-northwest of the city.
Gaston's remains no longer a threat
Dry air has significantly disrupted the remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, which are now over the Dominican Republic. NHC is now giving Gaston a 0% chance of developing, and no models are calling for development. It appears Gaston is finally dead.
Invest 91 off the coast of Africa
A large, well-organized tropical wave (91L) is just off the coast of Africa, near the Cape Verdes Islands, and is bringing sustained winds of 30 mph this morning to Praia in the southeast Cape Verdes. 91L is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear will decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Thursday. Water temperatures are warm, 28°C, and 91L has plenty of spin. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is well north of 91L, and should not be an impediment to development over the next few days. The models are pretty unanimous about developing 91L into Tropical Storm Igor sometime in the next 1 - 3 days. NHC is giving 91L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. The GFDL model predicts 91L will be Hurricane Igor five days from now. The storm will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting 91L several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 10 days from now. History shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at 91L's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico, and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors a continuation of the sort of tracks we saw for Danielle, Earl, and Fiona, with threats to the northern Lesser Antilles, Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Canada.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 91L (Igor?)
Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 5 - 6 days from now.
Death toll in Guatemala from Tropical Depression 11E rises to 54
In the Eastern Pacific, heavy rains from Tropical Depression 11E have killed at least 54 people in Guatemala, with many more missing and feared dead. The heavy rains triggered nearly 200 landslides and collapses, causing damages near $500 million. Fifteen landslides hit portions of the Inter-American Highway, burying a number of vehicles and a bus. Tropical Depression 11E formed on September 3, moved over Mexico and Guatemala, and dissipated by the next day. Remnants from the depression may have played a role in the formation of Tropical Storm Hermine in the Gulf of Mexico on September 5.
Guatemala is still recovering from the impacts of Tropical Storm Agatha, which killed 287 people in the country and did over $1 billion in damage in May. This September's heavy rains in Guatemala come on the heels of the rainiest August in Guatemala's history, according to preliminary data from the National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology (INSIVUMEH). Rain was more than 100% above average in many parts of the country, and more than 200% above average in some regions. September and October are historically Guatemala's rainiest months, and any additional tropical cyclones which affect the country can be expected to cause more serious flooding.
Figure 3. Satellite image from Friday, September 3, 2010, showing Tropical Depression 11E over Mexico and Guatemala. Image credit: NASA.
Next post
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
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Going good so far. I have Intro to Meteorology at 9:30pm today then Calculus recitation later in the afternoon.
Slow day here in school. Physiology sucks.
Anyway,
I see we're pre naming an invest as Julia. I've always liked pretty woman.
Oh, oh, so as to get it out of the way... does south florida have a shot with Julia? Any september troughs anticipated to scoot this thing to the north? Just askin'...
Let's hope not...thats's too close for comfort...and as we all know what Camielle did to Miss.
A little before my time, I'd have to google the similarities...
Are you teaching them a few things?
I am curious to see if and when the system turns north because I thought a large stronger ridge of high pressure was supposed to building in quickly after the trough passes.
Regarding the system in central america, seems interesting and dangerous given the high SST's in the area.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL STORM MERANTI (T1010)
21:00 PM JST September 9 2010
================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea
at 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Meranti (992 hPa) located at 23.0N 118.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 9 knots
Dvorak Intensity: T3.0
Gale Force Winds
==================
140 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 27.2N 119.0E - Tropical Depression
Yes, it killed Gaston..it better watch out.
92L? Camille formed in the pot of boiling water of the SW coast of Cuba. Perhaps similar to Gustav, which formed closer to where 92L is, but further west.
OK another couple of questions for ya Storm...
Do weaker trof's carry weaker amounts of shear as storms approach? I'm thinking yes.
If so, then could you determine the strength of the trof vs the ridge by looking at the shear? Are there other ways of making that determination of the influence that a trof will have on a storm to pull it northward?
... while some other models show a caribbean cruiser.
What do you think about the possible track?
Everyone in the Caribbean and on the Gulf Coast needs to watch it closely.
Link
It's close to T&T so it suffices.
Where would you say Igor could end up impacting?
lol. No, I pretty much stay quite and listen for the most part in the class of over 100 students.
Hmm, a previous Danielle is on that list.
Good morning. No closer an eye than I do !. And, to top it off, 92L is moving very slowly which gives it all the time in the world to organize.
Sadly 2 people are confirmed dead and 3 missing all due to the flash flooding.
And I doubt one storm will be enough to cool it off significantly, unless it is a very large, slow moving storm.
that is a relief
Maybe to you...
The people of the Yucatan may have a different take (not to mention the people of the islands in its path). And since it likely wouldn't die on the Yucatan, the western half of the Gulf would then have to face it...
Earl doesn't count?
I wish Pat was here, he could post his map of the hurricane warnings from Mexico to New England... Not picking on you dude, just that right now, anyone saying where this will go is throwing darts blind folded.
If it develops into a storm the likelihood of attaining Cat 5 status in the Caribbean is very high, especially if it moves to the WNW. Anyway, let's see what it does in the next 24 hours first. This year has seen several systems fail to achieve their true potential, let's hope 92L is also one of them, although I have a bad feeling about this one.
What a crazy track.
Some of the tracks pre-1940 in particular were not something you'd see today.
Yes.
A lot of these low pressure systems do not develop and even the hottest water temps in the world won't make it that much more likely.
I'll be interested once 92L breaks off from the ITCZ and develops a closed low level circulation.
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