Major flooding in Austin from Hermine
Major flooding is occurring in the Austin, Texas region after Tropical Storm Hermine dumped an estimated 10 - 15 inches of rain over the past 24 hours. The flash flood warning for Austin from the National Weather Service at 4am this morning summarized the danger:
"Areas along I-35 and the Balcones Escarpment in and around the Austin Metro area will continue to experience a very dangerous flash flood event over the next few hours. Numerous evacuations and high water rescues have already been reported by the media and law enforcement personnel."
As wunderground's Dr. Rob Carver reports in his blog this morning, hardest hit was the area ten miles north-northwest of Austin, where an NWS cooperative station measured 10.11" of rain yesterday. The rains have swollen the South Fork of the San Gabriel River at Georgetown, Texas to 50-year flood heights.
Hermine has dissipated, but its heavy rains live on, and are now affecting the Dallas/Fort Worth region, where 1 - 3 inch rainfall amounts have been common. Hermine's rains are still lingering over the hard-hit Austin area, but should remain under one inch for the remainder of the morning. However, this afternoon, additional significant rains are possible near Austin as the sun's heat drives thunderstorm development in the very moist airmass over Central Texas.
Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Austin, Texas area shows that over fifteen inches of rain may have fallen in the region ten miles north-northwest of the city.
Gaston's remains no longer a threat
Dry air has significantly disrupted the remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, which are now over the Dominican Republic. NHC is now giving Gaston a 0% chance of developing, and no models are calling for development. It appears Gaston is finally dead.
Invest 91 off the coast of Africa
A large, well-organized tropical wave (91L) is just off the coast of Africa, near the Cape Verdes Islands, and is bringing sustained winds of 30 mph this morning to Praia in the southeast Cape Verdes. 91L is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear will decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Thursday. Water temperatures are warm, 28°C, and 91L has plenty of spin. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is well north of 91L, and should not be an impediment to development over the next few days. The models are pretty unanimous about developing 91L into Tropical Storm Igor sometime in the next 1 - 3 days. NHC is giving 91L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. The GFDL model predicts 91L will be Hurricane Igor five days from now. The storm will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting 91L several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 10 days from now. History shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at 91L's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico, and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors a continuation of the sort of tracks we saw for Danielle, Earl, and Fiona, with threats to the northern Lesser Antilles, Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Canada.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 91L (Igor?)
Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 5 - 6 days from now.
Death toll in Guatemala from Tropical Depression 11E rises to 54
In the Eastern Pacific, heavy rains from Tropical Depression 11E have killed at least 54 people in Guatemala, with many more missing and feared dead. The heavy rains triggered nearly 200 landslides and collapses, causing damages near $500 million. Fifteen landslides hit portions of the Inter-American Highway, burying a number of vehicles and a bus. Tropical Depression 11E formed on September 3, moved over Mexico and Guatemala, and dissipated by the next day. Remnants from the depression may have played a role in the formation of Tropical Storm Hermine in the Gulf of Mexico on September 5.
Guatemala is still recovering from the impacts of Tropical Storm Agatha, which killed 287 people in the country and did over $1 billion in damage in May. This September's heavy rains in Guatemala come on the heels of the rainiest August in Guatemala's history, according to preliminary data from the National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology (INSIVUMEH). Rain was more than 100% above average in many parts of the country, and more than 200% above average in some regions. September and October are historically Guatemala's rainiest months, and any additional tropical cyclones which affect the country can be expected to cause more serious flooding.
Figure 3. Satellite image from Friday, September 3, 2010, showing Tropical Depression 11E over Mexico and Guatemala. Image credit: NASA.
Next post
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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where
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Really ?. You have obviously not seen how many storms have undergone RI in the NW Caribbean.
Conditions aloft look very favorable and that combined with extreme ocean heat content should bode well for this disturbance. Ridge will force this baby westward.
Hi Storm. 92L is sitting just outside the Eastern Caribbean where it can avoid the John Hope Rule ! LOL
It is also far enough N from the SA continent to avoid ingesting dry continental air. The signs are not good.
No, it is correct.
It hit the British Virgin Islands as a Category Three Major Hurricane.
rip sir reginald poopums iii
However saying all that, 06Z GFS does have 92L as a Cat 2 hurricane off the eastern coast of Yucatan!!
do little islands really count as landfall though
FEATURE OF INTEREST IS NOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES EAST OF
TRINIDAD WHICH MODELS HAVE INDICATED SOME SORT OF WEAK TC
DEVELOPMENT OVR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE RELIABLE MODELS ECMWF
AND GFS KEEP THIS SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE ECMWF A
BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT.
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES NOTED BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE ECWMF
FASTER THAN THE GFS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECWMF BRINGING SOME GOOD
RAINS SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS THIS MODEL HAS OUTPERFORMED THE REST OF
THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS THIS HURRICANE SEASON. MODELS HAVE ALSO
LAG BEHIND WITH OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES AS WAS THE CASE WITH FAST
MOVING STORMS LIKE GASTON...COLIN AND FIONA. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED
TO MONITOR LATEST FORECASTS OVR THE NEXT 48 HRS AS WE ARE VERY NEAR
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON AND TC DEVELOPMENT
CAN TAKE PLACE ABOUT ANYWHERE AND VERY QUICKLY. OF NOTE IS THE
UNRELIABLE MODELS CANADIAN GLOBAL AND NAM INDICATE THIS SYSTEM
ACTUALLY MOVING ACROSS PR ON SUN. GIVEN THAT THE H25 HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND UPPER LVL TROUGH XPCD TO CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTH IS NOT OUT THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD
END UP FURTHER NORTH THAT WHAT IS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS/ECMWF
MODELS.
No this system as of now should stay to our south.
Right now in Barbados there is lots of heavy heavy rains, very litle wind, so circulation from this system seems low,
That statement is true for every tropical system, not just this one.
it has to move N to detach
What? There are people and property on these islands, right? Of course it counts.
Do people live on them?
Then yes.
Let's see. Not necessarily cat 5s, but these storms exploded in the northern and NW Caribbean: Gustav (2008), maybe Dennis (2005), maybe Emily (2005), Ivan (2004, re-intensified to cat 5), Isidore (2002), Camille (1969, intensification cut-off by landfall in Cuba).
ok i wasnt sure but that makes sense
It's still a major. Whether it had the winds or not, I do not know, but the northern most island was in the eyewall when it was a Category 3, intensifying into a Category 4. The waves were bad enough.
Indeed... being noticing a deep Ridge getting established across the C GOM. In my current thinking if 92L was to group deep enough and the E CONUS TROF was to delay on lifting out or dig S far enough it could bring the possibility of a farther N track like NOGAPS, CMC, NAM are showing. Else, if the ridge builds further enough E to the extreme W ATL then we'll definitely see 92L threatening C America.
Like always is a wait and see deal until 92L organizes enough and to see how steering patterns start to shape up over the weekend.
Updated: 32 min 55 sec ago
26 °C
Overcast
Humidity: 83%
Dew Point: 23 °C
Wind: 24 km/h / 6.7 m/s from the West
Pressure: 1013 hPa (Rising)
Visibility: 9.0 kilometers
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds: Few 213 m
good morning. couple of quick questions for you. First, with the forward speed of Igor slowing and now moving north, when the high builds back in in a few days, do you see a potential pick up in forward speed enough where it could miss the strong trough at 60W?
Second, when wunderground posts Invest systems, why does it now show models like the GFS, EMCWF, UKMET, NOGAPS, etc..? thanks
Best post I have read in a while. Thank you!
Thanks!
Simply put, John Hope often stated that if a tropical system did not develop before reaching the Eastern Caribbean it would most likely not do so until reaching the Western Caribbean.
Many islands do not get technical landfall, but 'direct hits'. In other words, it's close enough and the people on those islands are getting basically the same conditions anyway.
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