Major flooding in Austin from Hermine

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:24 PM GMT on September 08, 2010

Share this Blog
5
+

Major flooding is occurring in the Austin, Texas region after Tropical Storm Hermine dumped an estimated 10 - 15 inches of rain over the past 24 hours. The flash flood warning for Austin from the National Weather Service at 4am this morning summarized the danger:

"Areas along I-35 and the Balcones Escarpment in and around the Austin Metro area will continue to experience a very dangerous flash flood event over the next few hours. Numerous evacuations and high water rescues have already been reported by the media and law enforcement personnel."

As wunderground's Dr. Rob Carver reports in his blog this morning, hardest hit was the area ten miles north-northwest of Austin, where an NWS cooperative station measured 10.11" of rain yesterday. The rains have swollen the South Fork of the San Gabriel River at Georgetown, Texas to 50-year flood heights.

Hermine has dissipated, but its heavy rains live on, and are now affecting the Dallas/Fort Worth region, where 1 - 3 inch rainfall amounts have been common. Hermine's rains are still lingering over the hard-hit Austin area, but should remain under one inch for the remainder of the morning. However, this afternoon, additional significant rains are possible near Austin as the sun's heat drives thunderstorm development in the very moist airmass over Central Texas.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Austin, Texas area shows that over fifteen inches of rain may have fallen in the region ten miles north-northwest of the city.

Gaston's remains no longer a threat
Dry air has significantly disrupted the remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, which are now over the Dominican Republic. NHC is now giving Gaston a 0% chance of developing, and no models are calling for development. It appears Gaston is finally dead.

Invest 91 off the coast of Africa
A large, well-organized tropical wave (91L) is just off the coast of Africa, near the Cape Verdes Islands, and is bringing sustained winds of 30 mph this morning to Praia in the southeast Cape Verdes. 91L is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear will decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Thursday. Water temperatures are warm, 28°C, and 91L has plenty of spin. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is well north of 91L, and should not be an impediment to development over the next few days. The models are pretty unanimous about developing 91L into Tropical Storm Igor sometime in the next 1 - 3 days. NHC is giving 91L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. The GFDL model predicts 91L will be Hurricane Igor five days from now. The storm will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting 91L several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 10 days from now. History shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at 91L's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico, and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors a continuation of the sort of tracks we saw for Danielle, Earl, and Fiona, with threats to the northern Lesser Antilles, Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Canada.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 91L (Igor?)

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 5 - 6 days from now.

Death toll in Guatemala from Tropical Depression 11E rises to 54
In the Eastern Pacific, heavy rains from Tropical Depression 11E have killed at least 54 people in Guatemala, with many more missing and feared dead. The heavy rains triggered nearly 200 landslides and collapses, causing damages near $500 million. Fifteen landslides hit portions of the Inter-American Highway, burying a number of vehicles and a bus. Tropical Depression 11E formed on September 3, moved over Mexico and Guatemala, and dissipated by the next day. Remnants from the depression may have played a role in the formation of Tropical Storm Hermine in the Gulf of Mexico on September 5.

Guatemala is still recovering from the impacts of Tropical Storm Agatha, which killed 287 people in the country and did over $1 billion in damage in May. This September's heavy rains in Guatemala come on the heels of the rainiest August in Guatemala's history, according to preliminary data from the National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology (INSIVUMEH). Rain was more than 100% above average in many parts of the country, and more than 200% above average in some regions. September and October are historically Guatemala's rainiest months, and any additional tropical cyclones which affect the country can be expected to cause more serious flooding.


Figure 3. Satellite image from Friday, September 3, 2010, showing Tropical Depression 11E over Mexico and Guatemala. Image credit: NASA.

Next post
I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2731 - 2681

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62Blog Index

Quoting Cotillion:
Didn't Hurricane Iris merge with TS Karen in 1995 after a Fujiwhara interaction?

Iris kept her name, I believe.


Well, Iris stayed alive and well-distinct while absorbing Karen, so Iris stayed Iris.

Scenario I am thinking of with Igor is that it merges with the other low to the NE, and the combined system becomes sloppy such that the NHC stops issuing advisories on Igor because they can't find the center of Igor. Then, this slop re-organizes into a tropical cyclone, which was technically a product of Igor and the other low. So, would they keep the name Igor when they re-issued advisories, or would they call it Julia (or whatever the next name would be at that time). That is what I wonder?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2730. scott39
Quoting StormW:


Maybe they're waiting for the GFS to pull it north. LOL! Good morning.
LOL, All must bow and pay omage to the Great Forcasting Scenerio, and only other models that agree with the Great one are correct for forecasting!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6857
Quoting MahFL:
Bah fish storms, so frustrating.


Really?????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2728. myway
Quoting MahFL:
Bah fish storms, so frustrating.


Fish storms are good. They give you something to track and talk about while nothing other that shipping intrests get damaged and there is no great effect on people.
I personaly hope I never have to go thru another hurricane. They just plain suck.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2726. IKE
Caribbean disturbance has...."models are too far west", written all over it. Certainly plenty of arguments..almost a guarantee. Stay tuned!

It just needs to be tagged to get..."the initial model runs" started. That should fire up the blog.

$$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Goof morning Storm, off to work now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Oh please...you crack me up...where's your forecast? With back up parameters? Did it ever occur to you...Mr. meteorologist, that all the info we've had to work with didn't point to such strong trofs, and beginning in August yet..or maybe, you would like to tell me what the pattern is going to do with the forecast NAO trend, and MJO forecast??



I will be glad to tell you what the weather is going to do......The Monday after it does it!!! Sort of reminds me of another ARMchair sport
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2720. lennit
Wow!! the atl pattern is very persistant this year..,deflector shield program seems to be very effective this year.. also ,Cape Verde season waves are developing at a high latitude to begin with this year
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2718. Wots
Good Morning!

In this loop Igor is moving NE.Is a Fujiwhara waltz going on? Can the two circulations merge?
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning, Why hasnt the AOI around Barbados been tagged and Invest yet?


That system is kind of junk right at this moment. There's not even a spin to it, no "center" defined right now. I think they declare Invests once they can define a center so they can put that center location in computer models and see where the models take it. I think the term Invest means "a disturbance in which computer model runs or recon aircraft resources are INVESTED into." They aren't going to invest model runs I suppose on this thing right now, no good center.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Didn't Hurricane Iris merge with/absorb TS Karen in 1995 after a Fujiwhara interaction?

Iris kept her name, I believe.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning, Storm - breakfast is a hundred posts back.

Looking forward to another lesson in analysis on your blog today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2711. maeko
good morning!

what is going on with Igor this morning? i see he is stationary as of 5am. this seems worrisome.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2708. scott39
Goodmorning, Why hasnt the AOI around Barbados been tagged and Invest yet?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6857
The longer Igor stays put or moves slowly, the less of a chance it has to get past the longitude of Puerto Rico or the easternmost Bahamas. Climatology dictates that the occasional troughs which move through the eastern U.S. and off the east coast will continue to get stronger and the westerlies will start to dig down further into the sub-tropics. There are exceptions in some cases, but the troughs have been there this season.

We have to start looking for storms which form in the Caribbean/Gulf instead of Cape Verde storms to be potential threats to the U.S. for the remainder of the season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting surfmom:
Morning Cot : ) , have a weather question for you -- All the rain & cruddy weather England has been having this summer -- could any of this be due to the ash from the Icelandic Volcano?


When it occurred, we were assured by meteorologists that the ash would have little to no impact on the weather. I'm inclined to believe them, as the British summer has not been great for about 4 years now. Well, as summer is basically over, it'll be 5 when the next one arrives.

At least it wasn't a 2007 - that was awful.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning StormW,

Looks like the blog just suddenly got quiet. Anyway, I was wondering the answer to this scenario (I posed the question in the last paragraph of my newest blog post).

"Another interesting thought. Lets say scenario (2) above happens in a manner that Igor's remnant low and the other low melt together into a disorganized system. I wonder if that disorganized system were to then organize and develop into a tropical cyclone, would that tropical cyclone be renamed Igor? Its possible that it wouldn't be renamed Igor because technically that new tropical cyclone is a product of Igor's low mixing with another low. It'll be interesting if that scenario ever happened."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2704. DDR
Quoting surfmom:

aie yia, yia.... last year Pottery had such fire worries, and a low cistern I believe, now you have the other extreme. Travel must be VERY difficult as well --least I have heard outside of the Capital not much is paved...

Yea its weird
We went from fire and ashes to floods and landlides litterally overnight.
Say what!we have alot of roads here and plenty traffic to go, most of the island is still forested though
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting surfmom:

bawhahaaaa -- let's hope he doesn't get tooo friendly now and knock on my door ---LOL


Nah, Igor is more like half naked (swirl exposed from shear). Its got on shorts but no shirt. Sorry Igor, no shirt, no shoes, no service!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Cotillion:


Far too early to say as of yet.

He's going to struggle today and the forecast shows strengthening tomorrow.

See what occurs by tomorrow night.


Thats what the forecasts said with Gaston, and poof, dry air killed it. I am leaning toward that scneario with Igor with a large area of dry air its going to be heading toward (seen in WV imagery), but not jumping on that scenario yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2699. surfmom
Quoting aislinnpaps:


One-eyed Igor just winked at you. *G*

bawhahaaaa -- let's hope he doesn't get tooo friendly now and knock on my door ---LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Hey folks,

Igor is one interesting system. Take a look at my latest blog post, where in the final paragraph I pose an interesting scenario for Igor's possible future, one that may have never happened before. Feel free to leave comments about that scenario, I might be right or wrong.


Very interesting take, and one that sort of solidifies my own thinking. Yes, things aren't looking good for The Monster Storm Of The Year...at least as of this moment. Satellite data shows the pressures rising, and that's not something you want to see in a developing storm...if, that is, you want to see that storm develop. We'll have to see if your scenario comes to pass. Thanks for posting it...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2697. surfmom
Quoting Cotillion:
Mornin' Surfie!
Morning Cot : ) , have a weather question for you -- All the rain & cruddy weather England has been having this summer -- could any of this be due to the ash from the Icelandic Volcano?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting all4hurricanes:
What's killing this storm? is it the thing above it or SAL


If you are referring to the neighboring low to the NE of Igor as "the thing above it," then yes, its the thing above it that's killing it now.

Fujiwhara interaction with the other low has increased storm relative easterly shear over Igor, explained in more detail on my blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Autistic2:


Between the victoria secrets models and your one eye image, mothernatures lessin in patence, I think I will not look at the blog today untill 6:00 pm! Now I need coffee!


One-eyed Igor just winked at you. *G*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


That's what I was thinking, I am leaning toward Igor becoming the next Gaston right now.


Far too early to say as of yet.

He's going to struggle today and the forecast shows strengthening tomorrow.

See what occurs by tomorrow night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2692. surfmom
Quoting DDR:

Hi
yes im from Trinidad,dams have been full for months now,we've been above average in terms of rainfall
Flooding and further landslides are a sure thing

aie yia, yia.... last year Pottery had such fire worries, and a low cistern I believe, now you have the other extreme. Travel must be VERY difficult as well --least I have heard outside of the Capital not much is paved...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Somehow I don't think that immediate WNW movement is going to pan out...



Yeah, maybe that XTRP (extrapolation) model will be right for once! XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


If Igor ends up dissipating today, he may never regenerate, ala Gaston, purely because of said dry air.


That's what I was thinking, I am leaning toward Igor becoming the next Gaston right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good Morning, everyone. I see Igor has been stationary. When I read that I had this sudden mental image of his one eye staring at the weather in front of him, waiting until it gets to just what he wants so he get to where he wants to go. If I was completely awake, as in had some coffee, and had a little time, I'd make an image of it.


Between the victoria secrets models and your one eye image, mothernatures lessin in patence, I think I will not look at the blog today untill 6:00 pm! Now I need coffee!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We should worry about the low pressure system in the southeastern Caribbean, the thing's in a perfect environment with high SSTs, moist environment and low to non wind shear.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2687. DDR
Quoting surfmom:
Yikes DDR - you are in Trin? - feast or famine - flood or fire.....least the aquifer's will be deeply replenished

Hi
yes im from Trinidad,dams have been full for months now,we've been above average in terms of rainfall
Flooding and further landslides are a sure thing
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting surfmom:
LOL - 'Canes & kids have sooo much in common (I don't think a c- Coop) No predicting... troughs, high, lows, ridges, storms, quakes & tornado's


I don't know, Surf - must be a C- or Ma Nature wouldn't be providing so many refresher courses free of charge, LOL.

A hint of fall weather here - 72 and clear outside, down in the low 60s tonight. The high is still in control - no rain in sight until maybe Sunday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Mornin' Surfie!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey folks,

Igor is one interesting system. Take a look at my latest blog post, where in the final paragraph I pose an interesting scenario for Igor's possible future, one that may have never happened before. Feel free to leave comments about that scenario, I might be right or wrong.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning all...hoping to dry out here in south Texas...Hermine was a wet little monster!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2682. surfmom
Yikes DDR - you are in Trin? - feast or famine - flood or fire.....least the aquifer's will be deeply replenished
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2681. surfmom
Quoting CoopsWife:


ROFLMAO, Surf. Think I probably have a C- in that particular lesson!
LOL - 'Canes & kids have sooo much in common (I don't think a c- Coop) No predicting... troughs, high, lows, ridges, storms, quakes & tornado's
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2731 - 2681

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.