Major flooding in Austin from Hermine
Major flooding is occurring in the Austin, Texas region after Tropical Storm Hermine dumped an estimated 10 - 15 inches of rain over the past 24 hours. The flash flood warning for Austin from the National Weather Service at 4am this morning summarized the danger:
"Areas along I-35 and the Balcones Escarpment in and around the Austin Metro area will continue to experience a very dangerous flash flood event over the next few hours. Numerous evacuations and high water rescues have already been reported by the media and law enforcement personnel."
As wunderground's Dr. Rob Carver reports in his blog this morning, hardest hit was the area ten miles north-northwest of Austin, where an NWS cooperative station measured 10.11" of rain yesterday. The rains have swollen the South Fork of the San Gabriel River at Georgetown, Texas to 50-year flood heights.
Hermine has dissipated, but its heavy rains live on, and are now affecting the Dallas/Fort Worth region, where 1 - 3 inch rainfall amounts have been common. Hermine's rains are still lingering over the hard-hit Austin area, but should remain under one inch for the remainder of the morning. However, this afternoon, additional significant rains are possible near Austin as the sun's heat drives thunderstorm development in the very moist airmass over Central Texas.
Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Austin, Texas area shows that over fifteen inches of rain may have fallen in the region ten miles north-northwest of the city.
Gaston's remains no longer a threat
Dry air has significantly disrupted the remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, which are now over the Dominican Republic. NHC is now giving Gaston a 0% chance of developing, and no models are calling for development. It appears Gaston is finally dead.
Invest 91 off the coast of Africa
A large, well-organized tropical wave (91L) is just off the coast of Africa, near the Cape Verdes Islands, and is bringing sustained winds of 30 mph this morning to Praia in the southeast Cape Verdes. 91L is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear will decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Thursday. Water temperatures are warm, 28°C, and 91L has plenty of spin. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is well north of 91L, and should not be an impediment to development over the next few days. The models are pretty unanimous about developing 91L into Tropical Storm Igor sometime in the next 1 - 3 days. NHC is giving 91L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. The GFDL model predicts 91L will be Hurricane Igor five days from now. The storm will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting 91L several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 10 days from now. History shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at 91L's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico, and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors a continuation of the sort of tracks we saw for Danielle, Earl, and Fiona, with threats to the northern Lesser Antilles, Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Canada.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 91L (Igor?)
Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 5 - 6 days from now.
Death toll in Guatemala from Tropical Depression 11E rises to 54
In the Eastern Pacific, heavy rains from Tropical Depression 11E have killed at least 54 people in Guatemala, with many more missing and feared dead. The heavy rains triggered nearly 200 landslides and collapses, causing damages near $500 million. Fifteen landslides hit portions of the Inter-American Highway, burying a number of vehicles and a bus. Tropical Depression 11E formed on September 3, moved over Mexico and Guatemala, and dissipated by the next day. Remnants from the depression may have played a role in the formation of Tropical Storm Hermine in the Gulf of Mexico on September 5.
Guatemala is still recovering from the impacts of Tropical Storm Agatha, which killed 287 people in the country and did over $1 billion in damage in May. This September's heavy rains in Guatemala come on the heels of the rainiest August in Guatemala's history, according to preliminary data from the National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology (INSIVUMEH). Rain was more than 100% above average in many parts of the country, and more than 200% above average in some regions. September and October are historically Guatemala's rainiest months, and any additional tropical cyclones which affect the country can be expected to cause more serious flooding.
Figure 3. Satellite image from Friday, September 3, 2010, showing Tropical Depression 11E over Mexico and Guatemala. Image credit: NASA.
Next post
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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who thought fish all belonged in a tank.
Once he realized the storm,
was nowhere near his loved home,
wanted no one to mention it's name.
Listen, as a fellow Floridian, just hush. This storm is still a week and a half from the ISLANDS. All this topic of Andrew and paranoia just makes us Floridians look bad. So hush.
if the high over the U.S builds eastward that would mean it could grab anything coming west to east in the atlantic
That was quick! O.o
They go 90L-99L and then start back at 90L.
Circles aren't always invests. Must be an invest to get spaghetti plots.
Although the pattern currently in place favors future Igor (91L) recurving, if he has not turned northward by Sep 17 or so, the odds of him impacting the US increase significantly. This is because in 8-10 days, a broad, slow-moving trough is expected to dig into the western US, allowing the West Atlantic/NE US trough to lift out and encouraging a strong west to east oriented ridge (a typical pattern in La Nina years) to build from the lower MS Valley east to near Bermuda.
You said "Please ask me questions about information in my forecast because I like repeating myself"
At least that's the way some people read it.
Well, you have about a 4 in 5 chance of being right without knowing anything more than location.
On this date, the following years had...
2009: 6-2-2...Total at end of season: 10
2008: 10-5-3...Total at end of season: 16
2007: 7-2-2...Total at end of season: 15
2006: 7-2-0...Total at end of season: 10
2005: 15-8-4...Total at end of season: 28
2004: 9-6-4...Total at end of season: 15
Hey! Were you my lit prof. back in 92'? He said the same thing.
This is from 9/8/2010 11 am:
kind of new at posting pic's on here so it may look completely messed up, if so I will re-post it
I live in SE Arlington, in Tarrant County. We have had weather watcher reports of between 4-8" of rain over our city. Portions of Tarrant County, Ft Worth and areas south and west have received between 5-10" widespread.
The worst of it appears to be over for most of Tarrant County. I live near the Dallas-Tarrabt County border and the heaviest rains are now over Dallas County
Creeks, river and low lying areas are flooding. Water over secondary/primary roads and highways occasionally cover portions of the road, in a depth up to or greater than 6". A handful of water rescues have taken place.
We are thankful for the rain, we are now in a surplus in the rainfall department.
My prayers go out to hard hit Central and S Central TX, where a life has been lost, roads and bridges have been washed out as the received a general 10-15" of rainfall.
2004 is our best comparison. Even though 2004 already had 6 hurricanes and 4 majors, it's still the best comparison, especially when considering the steering for the storms that season. We should see Igor take us up to 9-4-3 and the next tropical wave that emerges should at least take us up to 10-4-3, if not 10-5-4.
La Nina season end late too, so we could be looking at more storm between now and November than we would normally see
there have been 22 invests this season so far, 11 have become Depressions, 9 of those named storms, 3 of those Hurricanes and of course 2 Majors
Last season had 24 invests total
Nah, U.A. Roll Tide!
5 US landfalls at this date, with Ivan making 6 towards the end of the month.
Hi KanKunKid....I like your sense of humor....what are your thoughts on the Gaston blob?
gonna lose that #1 ranking 7pm Saturday...
Igor was never a TD, it was automatically upgraded form 91L to Igor. Hermine was TD10. So we had 10 TDs so far, technically speaking.
but the next system will be TD 12
the TD classification is automatically assumed when you have a TS
Only direct landfall on the U.S. so far this year, Bonnie. Though the U.S. has been affected by Alex TD2 Earl and Hermine.
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